# GOP still trending to win Senate

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426>\
**Category:** Politics & Elections\
**Created:** [August 13, 2014, 10:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426 "2014-08-13T10:52:38Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 20\
**Page:** 6

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**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\
**Post date:** [August 15, 2014, 11:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/101 "2014-08-15T23:49:31Z")

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He’s not wrong though. There are issues on which there can be no compromise. If only liberals saw things that way on the world stage. Then you wouldn’t have Liz Warren calling for the Iraqi government to negotiate with ISIS.

Hopefully her call to negotiate with terrorists will forever bar her from serious consideration as Commander-in-Chief.

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**Author:** ![Zakalwe](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/zakalwe/32/270_2.png) [@Zakalwe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zakalwe)\
**Post date:** [August 15, 2014, 11:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/102 "2014-08-15T23:50:22Z")

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> [@adaher](#):
>
> No, the Democrats just failed Diplomacy 101. You don’t just take ideas mentioned by the other side before, put it in a treaty, and then demand the other side support it because sometime in the past they supported some of the ideas in it before. You also don’t lecture them on what a compromise it is and how unreasonable they are for not supporting it.

The fact that you treat this as if it’s two equal sides governing two separate countries is telling. I live in the United States, what country do you and the Republicans live in?

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**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\
**Post date:** [August 16, 2014, 12:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/103 "2014-08-16T00:01:37Z")

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> [@Velocity](#):
>
> That’s exactly what many Republicans would say, word for word, about Democrats, substituting “Democrat” for “Republican” in your paragraph.  
> In other words, you sound no different than the opposing side.

I don’t deny this. I don’t think most Republicans are bad people, but I think most of their ideas are bad for America and for Americans. It doesn’t surprise me in the slightest if many or most Republicans think my ideas are bad for America and for Americans.

If I didn’t think their ideas were bad for America, I wouldn’t oppose them. This isn’t particularly complicated.

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**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\
**Post date:** [August 16, 2014, 12:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/104 "2014-08-16T00:01:43Z")

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The principles of diplomacy apply to relations with adversaries and friends in general. If anything, one should be tougher with foreign enemies than domestic opponents. iT’s only the Democrats that never seem to get that.

Then there’s the simple reality of the American system vs. the outside world. We don’t HAVE to ever talk to a nation like Iran if we don’t want to. But in the American system, things can’t happen effectively if strong majorities don’t back them. There are so many veto points in the system, and the opposition party is bound to control one of them. The Republicans control the House and a majority of the states. There is very little Democrats can do without negotiating with the Republicans, and vice versa.

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**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\
**Post date:** [August 16, 2014, 12:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/105 "2014-08-16T00:09:10Z")

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> [@adaher](#):
>
> The principles of diplomacy apply to relations with adversaries and friends in general. If anything, one should be tougher with foreign enemies than domestic opponents. iT’s only the Democrats that never seem to get that.

All of this is opinion, and (in my opinion), completely wrong opinion. Hannity-light.

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**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\
**Post date:** [August 16, 2014, 12:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/106 "2014-08-16T00:13:57Z")

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Wrong that Democrats do this, or wrong that Democrats should do this, or wrong that the principles of diplomacy apply to relationships in general?

The last should definitely not be an alien concept to anyone who is married.🙂

You should sometime read about the intense negotiations Barack had to have with Michelle to get permission to run for President.

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**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\
**Post date:** [August 16, 2014, 12:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/107 "2014-08-16T00:18:02Z")

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> [@adaher](#):
>
> Wrong that Democrats do this, or wrong that Democrats should do this

Both – the Democrats might do this sometimes, but so do the Republicans… and sometimes it’s a good thing, sometimes it’s a bad thing. Diplomacy is _complicated_.

> [@](#):
>
> , or wrong that the principles of diplomacy apply to relationships in general?

They can apply, but, again, in a very complicated way.

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**Author:** ![Zakalwe](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/zakalwe/32/270_2.png) [@Zakalwe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zakalwe)\
**Post date:** [August 16, 2014, 12:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/108 "2014-08-16T00:25:56Z")

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> [@adaher](#):
>
> The principles of diplomacy apply to relations with adversaries and friends in general. If anything, one should be tougher with foreign enemies than domestic opponents. iT’s only the Democrats that never seem to get that.

How can you possibly say this with a straight face? The GOP’s “diplomacy” for the past 6 years has been “give me everything I want or the answer is no.” That’s NOT diplomacy.

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**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\
**Post date:** [August 16, 2014, 12:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/109 "2014-08-16T00:27:36Z")

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Republicans have a more consistent approach: there are times to negotiate and times to not negotiate. Both domestically and in foreign policy. Democrats believe you always negotiate in foreign policy. at least now. It wasn’t always the case. JFK, when asked about negotiating with the Soviet Union, said that negotiations could actually be harmful if there was little likelihood of success. Summits where the two sides just shout at each other increase international tension, they don’t reduce it.

The good news is that Republicans and Democrats have been talking over the years, and quite amiably. The problem is that then the President goes out and attacks them, which tells Republicans he’s not serious about coming to agreement, he wants the issue instead. He even attacks Republicans AFTER coming to agreements for making him have to negotiate. To him, these issues are just common sense, not political, and he just doesn’t get how Republicans can make him have to negotiate over them.

Either it’s an act(probably), or he’s dumber than GWB was and actually sees the world as that black and white.

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**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\
**Post date:** [August 16, 2014, 12:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/110 "2014-08-16T00:29:26Z")

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> [@Zakalwe](#):
>
> How can you possibly say this with a straight face? The GOP’s “diplomacy” for the past 6 years has been “give me everything I want or the answer is no.” That’s NOT diplomacy.

Completely wrong. Name one issue and let’s explore what the sides wanted out of that issue.

I’ll concede that Republicans have been unnecessarily obstructive in many ways, especially with Presidential appointments. But that has less to do with Obama than Reid. Harry Reid keeps on filling up the amendment tree and refusing to bring bills to the floor that have majority support, so Republicans retaliate.

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**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\
**Post date:** [August 16, 2014, 12:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/111 "2014-08-16T00:29:39Z")

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> [@adaher](#):
>
> Republicans have a more consistent approach: there are times to negotiate and times to not negotiate. Both domestically and in foreign policy. Democrats believe you always negotiate in foreign policy. at least now. It wasn’t always the case. JFK, when asked about negotiating with the Soviet Union, said that negotiations could actually be harmful if there was little likelihood of success. Summits where the two sides just shout at each other increase international tension, they don’t reduce it.

More nonsense (in my opinion).

> [@](#):
>
> The good news is that Republicans and Democrats have been talking over the years, and quite amiably. The problem is that then the President goes out and attacks them, which tells Republicans he’s not serious about coming to agreement, he wants the issue instead. He even attacks Republicans AFTER coming to agreements for making him have to negotiate. To him, these issues are just common sense, not political, and he just doesn’t get how Republicans can make him have to negotiate over them.

And even more.

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**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\
**Post date:** [August 16, 2014, 12:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/112 "2014-08-16T00:30:51Z")

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Pretty much everything you say relating to the President, **adaher** , is driven by your extreme personal bias into Hannityesque gibberish.

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**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\
**Post date:** [August 16, 2014, 12:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/113 "2014-08-16T00:32:21Z")

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Actually, it’s driven by reading Bob Woodward books. He really does suck at diplomacy, both domestic and foreign.

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**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\
**Post date:** [August 16, 2014, 12:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/114 "2014-08-16T00:35:00Z")

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> [@adaher](#):
>
> Actually, it’s driven by reading Bob Woodward books. He really does suck at diplomacy, both domestic and foreign.

You may think that, but considering that many of the articles you’ve cited refute the point you thought they would support, I’m not convinced you’re reading them correctly.

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**Author:** ![Zakalwe](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/zakalwe/32/270_2.png) [@Zakalwe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zakalwe)\
**Post date:** [August 16, 2014, 1:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/115 "2014-08-16T01:59:27Z")

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> [@adaher](#):
>
> Completely wrong. Name one issue and let’s explore what the sides wanted out of that issue.

Debt ceiling.

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**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\
**Post date:** [August 16, 2014, 3:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/116 "2014-08-16T03:07:14Z")

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Republicans wanted dollar for dollar spending cuts in exchange for raising the debt ceiling. Democrats wanted an unconditional debt ceiling rise, despite not supporting such rises when they were in the minority and despite many Democrats promising constituents that they did not support an unconditional debt ceiling rise.

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**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\
**Post date:** [August 16, 2014, 4:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/117 "2014-08-16T04:33:27Z")

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> [@iiandyiiii](#):
>
> **Bricker** , wanting to bet?!? If I didn’t see it, I wouldn’t believe it!
> 
> By the way, what odds will you give me?

Even money.

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**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\
**Post date:** [August 16, 2014, 1:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/118 "2014-08-16T13:23:31Z")

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> [@adaher](#):
>
> Republicans wanted dollar for dollar spending cuts in exchange for raising the debt ceiling. Democrats wanted an unconditional debt ceiling rise, despite not supporting such rises when they were in the minority and despite many Democrats promising constituents that they did not support an unconditional debt ceiling rise.

When the Congress passes a balanced budget, then they can stop raising the debt ceiling. Raising the ceiling is no more than agreeing to pay debts you already incurred. To use the faith and credit of the US as a bargaining chip in a hostage negotiation is a trick more worthy of the Mafia than the Congress.

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**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\
**Post date:** [August 16, 2014, 1:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/119 "2014-08-16T13:56:30Z")

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> [@BobLibDem](#):
>
> When the Congress passes a balanced budget, then they can stop raising the debt ceiling. Raising the ceiling is no more than agreeing to pay debts you already incurred. To use the faith and credit of the US as a bargaining chip in a hostage negotiation is a trick more worthy of the Mafia than the Congress.

Sadly, I agree. I have no problem refusing to pass a budget bill because you believe it overspends. But refusing to pass a debt ceiling increase that covers your previously-agreed spending is not good governance.

The time to make a principled stand is the budget.

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**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\
**Post date:** [August 16, 2014, 4:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/120 "2014-08-16T16:41:47Z")

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Two on-line betting sites both show GOP as about 65% to win control of the Senate in November. I admire rationalists’ optimism but even-money is a sucker bet.

[A graph of the prediction over the past 20 months](https://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/graphs/Senate14.png) might be interesting. In October 2013, Demos were rated 80% to keep control.

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