# GOP still trending to win Senate **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [August 13, 2014, 10:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426 "2014-08-13T10:52:38Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 65
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2014, 4:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/1281 "2014-11-05T04:08:44Z")
Think of it like this: you call a big bet to draw one card to an inside straight. That decision is wrong at the moment you make it, because the odds bite the big green _binach_. Now, beat those odds and hit, you are then “right”, and will get paid off. But you were still wrong. And the smart guy who sees you win all that money making that decision will mark you down for a fish, and he’ll be right. ---
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2014, 4:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/1282 "2014-11-05T04:13:00Z")
> [@Airbeck](#): > > Whatever proof you have that they are lying? I’m not sure what more you want. Accusations of lying without proof should be worth what, in your mind? > > What remedy do you think you’re entitled to? Politicians lie sometimes. People accuse politicians of lying sometimes. That’s just politics, right? I guess your remedy is to advocate for whichever politicians you judge as liars to be voted out of office. Work for the campaign of whoever is opposing them maybe? You would use political remedies to address political issues you have with politicians. > > What else are you getting at? I’m not sure what response you are looking for here. On a site supposedly interested in fighting ignorance, I am asking for the cadre of SDMB liberals to acknowledge when their side is lying during the debate, as opposed to waiting until the end and then asserting that obviously everyone knows their politicians were lying, and what’s the big deal? ---
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2014, 4:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/1283 "2014-11-05T04:14:03Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > Think of it like this: you call a big bet to draw one card to an inside straight. That decision is wrong at the moment you make it, because the odds bite the big green _binach_. Now, beat those odds and hit, you are then “right”, and will get paid off. > > But you were still wrong. And the smart guy who sees you win all that money making that decision will mark you down for a fish, and he’ll be right. So I guess liberals will be lining up to bet me next time? ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2014, 4:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/1284 "2014-11-05T04:55:29Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > So I guess liberals will be lining up to bet me next time? Be careful what you wish for. I’ve bet with you four times and won three. By my count, I’m up $200. So if I come out, you can count on a lighter wallet. ---
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2014, 5:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/1285 "2014-11-05T05:07:17Z")
> [@Fear\_Itself](#): > > Be careful what you wish for. I’ve bet with you four times and won three. By my count, I’m up $200. So if I come out, you can count on a lighter wallet. I don’t quite agree. You may recall that first bet i conceded to you, but the issue was not my failure of prediction, but with an inartfully phrased bet. I lost that bet because I did not define terms, NOT because I was wrong about the subject matter. Still, you’re doing better against me than anyone else is. I hope we can find something else to bet on. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2014, 5:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/1286 "2014-11-05T05:14:28Z")
I was happy to bet on the underdog with those odds. Bricker, PM me details of where to send your winnings. ---
**Author:** ![Robot\_Arm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/robot_arm/32/18280_2.png) [@Robot\_Arm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Robot_Arm)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2014, 6:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/1287 "2014-11-05T06:36:04Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > These next two years can be as productive as Clinton’s last two years. > > One thing we can do is give Obama a surplus he can take credit for. > [@magellan01](#): > > I don’t think either side deserves credit. The internet was exploding and many was everywhere. Isn’t that exactly the sort of economic growth that Republicans say can’t happen? “Clinton doesn’t deserve credit for eliminating the deficit because he was just lucky to be in office when investors were making a fortune during the Internet boom.” “We dare not return to Clinton era taxation levels because they will stifle investment and hurt the economy.” They can’t both be true. ---
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2014, 8:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/1288 "2014-11-05T08:55:14Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > I was happy to bet on the underdog with those odds. Bricker, PM me details of where to send your winnings. Will do! ---
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2014, 9:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/1289 "2014-11-05T09:18:10Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > I like the Democrats’ chances in CO, IA, MI, and GA. If McConnell beaten in KY, a distinct possiblity, then Dems gain control. How sweet it would be if the deciding seat is McConnell’s loss. Here are the results of the chances you liked, and topped with result of your “distinct possibility:” CO – Gardner (R) 50% over Udall (D) 45% IA – Ernst (R) 52% over Braley (D) 42% MI – Peters (D) 53% over Land (R) 44% GA – Perdue (R) 53% over Nunn (D) 45% KY – McConnell (R) 56% over Grimes (D) 41% (distinctly) ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2014, 10:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/1290 "2014-11-05T10:08:14Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > Will do! Same goes for me – congrats on winning the bet. ---
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2014, 2:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/1291 "2014-11-05T14:00:21Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Same goes for me – congrats on winning the bet. Thank you, on behalf of the Little Sisters of the Poor. No need for PM in this case; their address is quite public: Donate online at [https://littlesistersofthepoorwashingtondc.weshareonline.org/ws/opportunities/HonorariumGift](https://littlesistersofthepoorwashingtondc.weshareonline.org/ws/opportunities/HonorariumGift) Or by paper check/mail: Little Sisters of the Poor Jeanne Jugan Residence 4200 Harewood Road, NE Washington, DC 20017-1511 ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2014, 2:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/1292 "2014-11-05T14:21:17Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > Thank you, on behalf of the Little Sisters of the Poor. No need for PM in this case; their address is quite public: > > Donate online at [https://littlesistersofthepoorwashingtondc.weshareonline.org/ws/opportunities/HonorariumGift](https://littlesistersofthepoorwashingtondc.weshareonline.org/ws/opportunities/HonorariumGift) > > Or by paper check/mail: > > Little Sisters of the Poor > Jeanne Jugan Residence > 4200 Harewood Road, NE > Washington, DC 20017-1511 The check is in the mail. Actually, I did an e-check through my bank, which will print out and physically send the check. It will probably take a few days to process and get into the mailbox. If you want proof, I can probably provide a screen shot to you in a few days. ---
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2014, 2:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/1293 "2014-11-05T14:26:25Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > The check is in the mail. Actually, I did an e-check through my bank, which will print out and physically send the check. It will probably take a few days to process and get into the mailbox. If you want proof, I can probably provide a screen shot to you in a few days. I trust you. ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2014, 2:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/1294 "2014-11-05T14:28:03Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > I would love to continue betting against liberal starry-eyed optimism. Does that mean you’d love to continue giving 3:1 odds in any election that 538 calls as a toss-up? Or was there something special about this election that made you not believe the August predictions? I can’t quite tell how far down the partisan rabbithole you’ve gone. On one hand, you now talk like Ann Coulter, complaining that Democrats lure poor voters into dependency on Democratic leadership, and other John Birch rhetoric that seems inconsistent with your previous relatively moderate ideology. But on the other hand, this could just be the kind of fake hyperpartisan poking at liberals that you discussed engaging in earlier in this thread. If your view really is that liberals who believe in polling are deluded, then maybe it’s not just an act? ---
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2014, 2:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/1295 "2014-11-05T14:32:37Z")
> [@Richard\_Parker](#): > > Whether you had some special insider knowledge in August that made a 3:1 bet wise is neither proven nor disproven by the direction of events in October. That’s the nature of odds of this magnitude. You’d need a lot of trial to know if it was a smart strategy or not. > > If it was a smart bet, it was because you knew something that the polls and state fundamentals weren’t showing yet. I, for one, doubt that Bricker’s gut feelings are a more accurate barometer than August polling and state fundamentals. But perhaps you will repeat this strategy over the next few elections and we will find out whether your partisan sense is better than 538. So here’s what 538 now says: > [@](#): > > The Polls Were Skewed Toward Democrats > > For much of this election cycle, Democrats complained the polls were biased against them. They said the polls were failing to represent enough minority voters and applying overly restrictive likely-voter screens. They claimed early-voting data was proving the polls wrong. They cited the fact that polls were biased against Democrats in 2012. > > The Democrats’ complaints may have been more sophisticated-seeming than the ”skewed polls” arguments made by Republicans in 2012. But in the end, they were just as wrong. The polls did have a strong bias this year — but it was toward Democrats and not against them. > . > . > . > The problem with Democrats’ claims is that they were one-sided. I don’t mean that in the typical false equivalence way. I mean that they were ignoring some important empirical evidence. > > This evidence suggests that polling bias has been largely unpredictable from election to election. Beyond the shadow of a doubt, the polling was biased against Democrats in 1998, 2006 and 2012. However, just as certainly, it was biased against Republicans in 1994, 2002 and now 2014. It can be dangerous to apply the “lessons” from one election cycle to the next one. That is sure mysterious strange and unusual. No earthly human could have predicted that ahead of time. ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2014, 2:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/1296 "2014-11-05T14:35:04Z")
Huh? I think you’re missing the point. Are you saying that you knew the polls were skewed in favor of Democrats this election? Did you also know when they were skewed against Democrats in previous elections? You seem to be suggesting that the existence of skew is commonplace. And it is. What most people don’t believe is that it can be reliably predicted. Are you claiming otherwise? ---
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2014, 3:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/1297 "2014-11-05T15:02:24Z")
> [@Richard\_Parker](#): > > Does that mean you’d love to continue giving 3:1 odds in any election that 538 calls as a toss-up? Or was there something special about this election that made you not believe the August predictions? > > I can’t quite tell how far down the partisan rabbithole you’ve gone. On one hand, you now talk like Ann Coulter, complaining that Democrats lure poor voters into dependency on Democratic leadership, and other John Birch rhetoric that seems inconsistent with your previous relatively moderate ideology. But on the other hand, this could just be the kind of fake hyperpartisan poking at liberals that you discussed engaging in earlier in this thread. If your view really is that liberals who believe in polling are deluded, then maybe it’s not just an act? I have no idea how 538 will conduct themselves next time, and I certainly won’t tie a bet or odds thereon to 538’s predictions. But I will continue to offer bets on elections. It may be that 538 agrees with me and thus I’ll find few takers. Indeed, even now it irks me that the loudest talkers are the most reluctant to bet – they revel in their credulous audience and avoid any consequence for being wrong. Instead, I get bets from the more moderate and careful folks, and only when my predictions don’t run along conventional lines. I believe in polling, as long as it’s understood that polling is almost always biased and polling aggregators accentuate that bias. ---
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2014, 3:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/1298 "2014-11-05T15:04:01Z")
> [@Richard\_Parker](#): > > Huh? I think you’re missing the point. > > Are you saying that you knew the polls were skewed in favor of Democrats this election? Did you also know when they were skewed against Democrats in previous elections? > > You seem to be suggesting that the existence of skew is commonplace. And it is. What most people don’t believe is that it can be reliably predicted. Are you claiming otherwise? Yes. I think that polling, divorced from what Silver calls “fundamentals,” is fundamentally lopsided, no pun intended. And I think that wishful thinking continues to serve as a placeholder for honest introspection. ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2014, 3:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/1299 "2014-11-05T15:05:45Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > Yes. I think that polling, divorced from what Silver calls “fundamentals,” is fundamentally lopsided, no pun intended. And I think that wishful thinking continues to serve as a placeholder for honest introspection. This is unresponsive to my questions. You think it is “fundamentally lopsided” in a consistent direction, or not? And if not in a consistent direction, you think you can guess the direction from election to election? ---
**Author:** ![BigAppleBucky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bigapplebucky/32/178_2.png) [@BigAppleBucky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BigAppleBucky)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2014, 3:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/1300 "2014-11-05T15:07:41Z")
> [@Lobohan](#): > > That is not remotely true. Please don’t assert things like that without citations. > > This is not remotely true. Population increase increases spending by necessity. > > And our taxes are historically low. Please try to learn the details before making sweeping pronouncements. > > How about instead of changing the subject to nonsense pronouncements, you provide similar issues that Dems overwhelmingly voted for? > > **I don’t doubt the GOP will win the Senate, I doubt they will govern intelligently.** **Vote Republican and prove that government is stupid, ineffective, corrupt and wasteful.** You’d have thought the country would have learned its lesson 2001-2009. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426.md?page=64) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426.md?page=66)