# GOP still trending to win Senate **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [August 13, 2014, 10:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426 "2014-08-13T10:52:38Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 69
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2014, 10:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/1361 "2014-11-05T22:40:11Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > “It’s one thing when my side does it, it’s another thing when the opposing side does it.” Republicans aren’t opposed by the Party of Satan. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2014, 10:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/1362 "2014-11-05T22:46:56Z")
Could have been, _should_ have been a damn sight better. We got a butt-load of infractructure needs work. Not “could do with some work”, not “wouldn’t be a bad idea”, needs! As in gotta, or else. We could have employed oodles of people. Borrowed the money pretty cheap, the concrete, the steel, can only go up in price as the economy struggles to recover. But no. The party of fiscal respomsibility, the party that believes in capitalism, doesn’t have the good sense God gave a goose. Now, we’re still gonna have to do it, it will just cost us a lot more. Pissed away a golden opportunity due to some half-assed economic ideology. (Said this before, and I know I am right because **Bricker** agreed with me, even as he died a little inside doing it.) ---
**Author:** ![MemoryLeak](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/6f9a4e/32.png) [@MemoryLeak](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MemoryLeak)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2014, 11:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/1363 "2014-11-05T23:02:06Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > The economy has had steady growth, unemployment is down – the labor force doesn’t tell us how many are actually working, and more people are working. And the number of people working has grown steadily for a while. > > Not that things are great – we need more improvement. But much, much better than in '08, when things were in free fall. That’s exactly what the labor force number is - how many people are working. As a comparison, the labor force was 147 million in 2004. Between 2004 and 2008 the participation rate remained steady around 66%. Even the most generous interpretation of what’s under this serious drop over the last 6 years (giving the rosiest accounting for the aging of the population and their behavior and focus on 25-54) still leaves a million people who have simply given up. The number is likely much higher. The recovery has been anemic - the worst recovery since the Great Depression. Measuring today against the low point of 2008/2009 may make you feel better, but it’s not a useful measure. ---
**Author:** ![Lobohan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lobohan/32/79_2.png) [@Lobohan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lobohan)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2014, 11:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/1364 "2014-11-05T23:17:37Z")
> [@MemoryLeak](#): > > That’s exactly what the labor force number is - how many people are working. > > As a comparison, the labor force was 147 million in 2004. Between 2004 and 2008 the participation rate remained steady around 66%. Even the most generous interpretation of what’s under this serious drop over the last 6 years (giving the rosiest accounting for the aging of the population and their behavior and focus on 25-54) still leaves a million people who have simply given up. The number is likely much higher. > > The recovery has been anemic - the worst recovery since the Great Depression. Measuring today against the low point of 2008/2009 may make you feel better, but it’s not a useful measure. Of course it was anemic. We know how to have good recoveries, the GOP fought that every step of the way. The GOP blocked everything that would have helped the recovery and then they point at the weak recovery. It’s like a joke, only real human beings are suffering. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2014, 11:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/1365 "2014-11-05T23:30:46Z")
> [@MemoryLeak](#): > > That’s exactly what the labor force number is - how many people are working. The labor force is the people available for work. The people actually working is the employment rate. So if the labor force now is the same as 2008, we have far more people working now, because the employment rate is much higher now. ---
**Author:** ![sleestak](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/919ad9/32.png) [@sleestak](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/sleestak)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2014, 11:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/1366 "2014-11-05T23:34:01Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > The Republican Party in its current form is the epitome of evil- I think I’m generous to call their voters stupid. :: post snipped :: Jesus, that is the most idiotic statement I’ve read on this board in years. Slee ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2014, 12:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/1367 "2014-11-06T00:36:54Z")
“Epitome of evil” is a bit much. Truth is, just boring, mediocre evil, dull evil without even the inspiration of malice. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2014, 12:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/1368 "2014-11-06T00:37:34Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > Republicans aren’t opposed by the Party of Satan. Oh Bob… ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2014, 12:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/1369 "2014-11-06T00:42:22Z")
A misnomer. The more correct infernal deity would be Mammon. ---
**Author:** ![Lobohan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lobohan/32/79_2.png) [@Lobohan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lobohan)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2014, 12:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/1370 "2014-11-06T00:42:46Z")
Most Republicans don’t have the requisite intent to be evil. They just believe, for instance, that cutting food stamps for poor people will force them to become middle class. It’s the result of magical thinking, not outright malice. They don’t want the world to undergo warming, they just think it’s a scam by some fatcat researchers. It’s ignorance driving counterproductive actions. That said, some Republicans try to disenfranchise poor people and then laugh about it. Those guys are kinda evil. ---
**Author:** ![magellan01](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@magellan01](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/magellan01)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2014, 1:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/1371 "2014-11-06T01:03:40Z")
> [@Fotheringay-Phipps](#): > > That makes a lot of sense. > > You have an incredible ability to figure everything all out except for this one small exception - just how stupid people are. But once that’s out of the way, now you really _really_ know everything, so your future predictions are rock solid. > > Good to know. Beautifully done. ---
**Author:** ![magellan01](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@magellan01](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/magellan01)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2014, 1:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/1372 "2014-11-06T01:07:00Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > It’s not bitter when Dems do it. The Republican Party in its current form is the epitome of evil- I think I’m generous to call their voters stupid. Jus thought I’d repost this so your astute, even-handed observation could benefit a few more eyes. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2014, 1:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/1373 "2014-11-06T01:33:33Z")
Oh, you would definitely be the guy for that. Your record for astute analysis is legendary. ---
**Author:** ![MemoryLeak](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/6f9a4e/32.png) [@MemoryLeak](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MemoryLeak)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2014, 2:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/1374 "2014-11-06T02:12:14Z")
> [@Lobohan](#): > > Of course it was anemic. We know how to have good recoveries, the GOP fought that every step of the way. > > The GOP blocked everything that would have helped the recovery and then they point at the weak recovery. It’s like a joke, only real human beings are suffering. Name a policy that was blocked that would have turned the ship around. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2014, 2:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/1375 "2014-11-06T02:14:35Z")
I’m more interested in Lobohan’s assertion that we know how to have good recoveries. I realize that Keynesians THINK they know how to have good recoveries, but the empirical data is lacking. Whereupon they insist in response that the stimulus measures that failed were insufficient. It’s possible they could be right, but it’s an unprovable assertion. What I remember is that our best period of economic growth ever involved reducing spending, deregulation, free trade, and welfare reform. ---
**Author:** ![MemoryLeak](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/6f9a4e/32.png) [@MemoryLeak](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MemoryLeak)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2014, 2:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/1376 "2014-11-06T02:29:33Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > The labor force is the people available for work. The people actually working is the employment rate. > > So if the labor force now is the same as 2008, we have far more people working now, because the employment rate is much higher now. So your argument is that the labor force (employed plus unemployed - those actively seeking work for those playing along) is basically the same now as it was six years ago and more people are working because the unemployed portion of that overall number has gone down. The fact that somewhere between 1 million and 4 million people (depending on the analysis you want to use - no one’s saying it’s zero) have simply abandoned the work force is of no consequence and shouldn’t color anyone’s perception. ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2014, 2:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/1377 "2014-11-06T02:32:19Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Did you make any predictions or bets on the 2012 election? > [@Bricker](#): > > Not really, no. Very early on, I said I hoped Romney would have a shot, but that was a hope and not a prediction. I was calling the election for Obama well before election day. I recall you predicting a Romney victory on the basis of the economy, as measured by the unemployment rate. But (as I recall it) that was during the Spring/Summer. The error there was to use the unemployment rate, rather than GDP during the election year, as Ray Fair uses. (See “Even money confident” June 2012 [http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=15183129#post15183129](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=15183129#post15183129) ) Offer of wager: Romney victory. [http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=15166992&postcount=182](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=15166992&postcount=182) I’m not sure what your true odds for Republican victory were in August, but you were apparently offering 3:1 (75% odds) vs. 60% odds of the various published models. Frankly, that’s not the sort of margin that can reliably draw me in. And as a test of worldviews, it would require n bets to give the correct party more winnings 95% of the time. n=??? ---
**Author:** ![Bryan\_Ekers](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bryan_ekers/32/183_2.png) [@Bryan\_Ekers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bryan_Ekers)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2014, 3:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/1378 "2014-11-06T03:46:49Z")
How many Republican voters are true single-issue voters, i.e. they vote solely on the basis of which candidate (or even more generally, which party) they feel more closely matches their views on abortion or guns or capital punishment or what have you? Democrats have them, too, no doubt. I’m not sure it’s fair to call such voters stupid. They’ve picked their single highest priority and vote accordingly. I guess they might be stupid if they vote for a candidate who they _think_ matches their views, but doesn’t really. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2014, 3:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/1379 "2014-11-06T03:57:56Z")
My most significant vote was for Charlie Crist. It wasn’t because I agreed with him on the issues. It was simply because Rick Scott is a divisive figure. I don’t believe that’s good leadership. We’ve had only GOP governors for 16 years and we didn’t have this problem when Jeb and then Crist were in charge. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2014, 4:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/1380 "2014-11-06T04:13:22Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > … but the empirical data is lacking… Pretty much the case with economics, you don’t get to prove to empirical certainty, you get to reasonable theory by way of statistics, assumptions, mathematical models, that sort of thing. Keynesian economics is more or less the “standard model”, save for schools of economics that exist primarily because rich guys donate money to see their political opinions get academic support. Conservative economics is like conservative humor or military music. Now we have to grant that his very lack of irrefutable and falsifiable data has led many a graduate Ph.D. into a thesis trap, an error of unfounded cause and effect assertion. _Post doc ergo propter hoc_, in a manner of speaking. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426.md?page=68) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426.md?page=70)