# GOP still trending to win Senate **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [August 13, 2014, 10:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426 "2014-08-13T10:52:38Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 7
**Author:** ![Evil\_Captor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/f17d59/32.png) [@Evil\_Captor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Captor)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2014, 6:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/121 "2014-08-16T18:28:49Z")
In June Nate Silvers was calling it v[ery close to even](http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/fivethirtyeight-senate-forecast-toss-up-or-tilt-gop/), with a slight tilt toward the GOP. As Silver said, on an even money bet he’d take the GOP to win the Senate. We really need to get the Republicans talking about rape. They love rape, we need them to proclaim it. ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [August 17, 2014, 1:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/122 "2014-08-17T01:17:51Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Republicans wanted dollar for dollar spending cuts in exchange for raising the debt ceiling. Democrats wanted an unconditional debt ceiling rise, despite not supporting such rises when they were in the minority and despite many Democrats promising constituents that they did not support an unconditional debt ceiling rise. So basically, Republicans wanted to renege on an already agreed upon agreement (the budget), using the credit of the entire country as a bargaining chip? ---
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [August 17, 2014, 1:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/123 "2014-08-17T01:22:46Z")
> [@Evil\_Captor](#): > > We really need to get the Republicans talking about rape. They love rape, we need them to proclaim it. Cite? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [August 17, 2014, 3:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/124 "2014-08-17T03:14:21Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > When the Congress passes a balanced budget, then they can stop raising the debt ceiling. Raising the ceiling is no more than agreeing to pay debts you already incurred. To use the faith and credit of the US as a bargaining chip in a hostage negotiation is a trick more worthy of the Mafia than the Congress. I agree. But a) the minority party usually seeks concessions in debt ceiling increases, and b) it was the Democrats who took a “no negotiations” tack, not the Republicans. In this case the Democrats were right to do so, but it doesn’t really fit with the argument that the Republicans refuse to deal. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [August 17, 2014, 3:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/125 "2014-08-17T03:53:54Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > Even money. Demonstrating what you actually think the odds are. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [August 17, 2014, 4:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/126 "2014-08-17T04:32:31Z")
the odds are slightly better than even money, although only slightly. I’d actually put the odds at 70-80% myself, but only if Republicans don’t screw it up. They’ve screwed it up two times in a row. ---
**Author:** ![Bryan\_Ekers](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bryan_ekers/32/183_2.png) [@Bryan\_Ekers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bryan_Ekers)\ **Post date:** [August 17, 2014, 4:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/127 "2014-08-17T04:36:25Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > Demonstrating what you actually think the odds are. Interesting take on brinksmanship: A: I don’t think the Republicans will take the Senate. B: Oh, yeah? Care to bet on it? If you refuse, you’ll show you don’t believe what you said. A: Oh, yeah? Care to give ten to one odds? If you refuse, you’ll show that YOU don’t believe what you said. Then multiple rounds of “negotiation”, each would-be bettor suggesting the other won’t accept terms because of dishonesty. ---
**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\ **Post date:** [August 17, 2014, 5:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/128 "2014-08-17T05:00:29Z")
> [@Bryan\_Ekers](#): > > Interesting take on brinksmanship: > A: I don’t think the Republicans will take the Senate. > B: Oh, yeah? Care to bet on it? If you refuse, you’ll show you don’t believe what you said. > A: Oh, yeah? Care to give ten to one odds? If you refuse, you’ll show that YOU don’t believe what you said. > > Then multiple rounds of “negotiation”, each would-be bettor suggesting the other won’t accept terms because of dishonesty. I don’t think you or **DSeid** understand how people bet. People take a bet if they think there are better than 50% odds of winning. Usually much better. So giving 2:1 in this case basically reduces the odds of winning to 50% or less. Why would I make that bet? ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Amazing](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/6de8d8/32.png) [@Captain\_Amazing](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Amazing)\ **Post date:** [August 17, 2014, 5:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/129 "2014-08-17T05:09:45Z")
I think the lottery and casinos everywhere show that people will take a bet even if there’s less than 50% odds of winning. ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_Captor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/f17d59/32.png) [@Evil\_Captor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Captor)\ **Post date:** [August 17, 2014, 5:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/130 "2014-08-17T05:16:20Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > Cite? [Gladly.](http://goprapeadvisorychart.com/) ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [August 17, 2014, 5:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/131 "2014-08-17T05:31:55Z")
> [@Captain\_Amazing](#): > > I think the lottery and casinos everywhere show that people will take a bet even if there’s less than 50% odds of winning. People misjudge the odds frequently, or know the odds are poor but are hoping for a big jackpot. Or sometimes it’s just fun. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [August 17, 2014, 5:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/132 "2014-08-17T05:33:11Z")
> [@Evil\_Captor](#): > > We really need to get the Republicans talking about rape. They love rape, we need them to proclaim it. I don’t know, I’m kinda hoping Democrats start talking about gun control. ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_Captor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/f17d59/32.png) [@Evil\_Captor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Captor)\ **Post date:** [August 17, 2014, 5:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/133 "2014-08-17T05:55:31Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > I don’t know, I’m kinda hoping Democrats start talking about gun control. If they stick to gun registration it should be a [winning issue](http://www.politifact.com/texas/statements/2013/apr/04/lee-leffingwell/lee-leffingwell-says-polls-show-90-percent-america/) for them. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [August 17, 2014, 5:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/134 "2014-08-17T05:59:30Z")
True, although I’m not sure that counts as “gun control”. ---
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [August 17, 2014, 1:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/135 "2014-08-17T13:25:57Z")
> [@Evil\_Captor](#): > > [Gladly.](http://goprapeadvisorychart.com/) Which of those quotes supports your position? ---
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [August 17, 2014, 1:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/136 "2014-08-17T13:29:56Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > Demonstrating what you actually think the odds are. I think the odds are about 65%. That makes an even money bet a good one for me. I think the odds of a coin flip are 50-50. You agree, I assume, both that those are the correct odds and that I believe those to be the correct odds. Right? So why would I offer an even-money bet on a coin flip? I offer a bet to leverage the difference between your expectation of results and mine. ---
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [August 17, 2014, 1:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/137 "2014-08-17T13:46:00Z")
> [@Captain\_Amazing](#): > > I think the lottery and casinos everywhere show that people will take a bet even if there’s less than 50% odds of winning. I’ll happily take a bet with less than a 50% chance of winning. How about we bet on the roll of a six-sided die? I’ll pay you $1 each time I’m wrong; you pay me $7 each time I’m right. I clearly have less than a 50% chance of winning each bet. People bet because they have an expectation of coming out ahead. They know their chances of winning the lottery are tiny, but the reward is immense. And it’s true they play casino games, too, in defiance of the odds. I think there are two reasons behind that behavior: entertainment and foolishness. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [August 17, 2014, 2:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/138 "2014-08-17T14:36:40Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > I think the odds are about 65%. That makes an even money bet a good one for me. > > I think the odds of a coin flip are 50-50. You agree, I assume, both that those are the correct odds and that I believe those to be the correct odds. > > Right? So why would I offer an even-money bet on a coin flip? I offer a bet to leverage the difference between your expectation of results and mine. So what odds will you offer? I won’t bet you straight up, because that’s a bad bet based on what we (and notably, Nate Silver) know now. ---
**Author:** ![Bryan\_Ekers](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bryan_ekers/32/183_2.png) [@Bryan\_Ekers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bryan_Ekers)\ **Post date:** [August 17, 2014, 3:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/139 "2014-08-17T15:20:50Z")
> [@Terr](#): > > I don’t think you or **DSeid** understand how people bet. I don’t think _you_ understand my point - it’s not about the wager, it’s about suggesting the other guy is a liar. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [August 17, 2014, 6:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/140 "2014-08-17T18:44:23Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > I think the odds are about 65%. That makes an even money bet a good one for me. … Yes it does. It would make a 3:2 odds bet a reasonably good one too. Still better than 65%. The fact is that the lack of willingness to give odds much better than even money means that you appreciate the fact that odds are in reality not too much better than even money … hence even money is a reasonable bet for you, giving odds, not. I’m with Wang on this one. I’m not going to bet 50/50 that a coin will come up heads three times out of five or more, or even 4 times out of seven … like you I’m looking for odds that are in my favor. Even if I discounted Alaska as not really in play it is still at best 50/50, so 50/50 is not good odds. And I wouldn’t bother betting 50/50 on something I thought really was 50/50 … I’d also only take a 50/50 odds bet if I thought it was better than 50/50 I’d win. But I also would not have _much_ confidence that three out of five _won’t_ happen … and clearly the odds you offer show that _you don’t either_. 65% at this point means as Wang put it: > [@](#): > > Make no mistake: at the moment, the battle for Senate control is super-close. If national opinion swings as little as 2 points in either direction, uncertainty about Senate control will evaporate. The odds right now are _slightly_ in favor of a GOP majority but the odds of a Democratic majority is not a long shot. They are, as of now, the marginal underdogs going into this battle with the information we currently have. I bet on underdogs all the time … but I want good odds when I do. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426.md?page=6) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426.md?page=8)