# GOP still trending to win Senate **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [August 13, 2014, 10:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426 "2014-08-13T10:52:38Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 8
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [August 17, 2014, 6:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/141 "2014-08-17T18:59:05Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > I’m with Wang on this one. I’m not going to bet 50/50 that a coin will come up heads three times out of five or more, or even 4 times out of seven … like you I’m looking for odds that are in my favor. Even if I discounted Alaska as not really in play it is still at best 50/50, so 50/50 is not good odds. And I wouldn’t bother betting 50/50 on something I thought really was 50/50 … I’d also only take a 50/50 odds bet if I thought it was better than 50/50 I’d win. That’s not how elections usually work and it gives me little confidence in Wang to hear that he’s using that kind of thinking. It’s not 50/50 in the sense that each race is going to be a coin flip, it’s 50/50 in that by November Democrats could be a few points more popular or a few points less popular. If the national mood softens towards Democrats in the next 2 1/2 months, then probably all Democratic incumbents win and they perhaps even win in Georgia and/or Kentucky. They end up only down one Senate seat overall. But if the mood sours on them a little more, maybe because Obama drops down to 39% approval or less, then each Democratic candidate perhaps loses 2-3 points and thus lose all the close races(and making races like New Hampshire way too close for comfort), which nets Republicans nine seats. ---
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [August 17, 2014, 7:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/142 "2014-08-17T19:40:13Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > Yes it does. > > It would make a 3:2 odds bet a reasonably good one too. Still better than 65%. > > The fact is that the lack of willingness to give odds much better than even money means that you appreciate the fact that odds are in reality not too much better than even money … hence even money is a reasonable bet for you, giving odds, not. > > I’m with Wang on this one. I’m not going to bet 50/50 that a coin will come up heads three times out of five or more, or even 4 times out of seven … like you I’m looking for odds that are in my favor. Even if I discounted Alaska as not really in play it is still at best 50/50, so 50/50 is not good odds. And I wouldn’t bother betting 50/50 on something I thought really was 50/50 … I’d also only take a 50/50 odds bet if I thought it was better than 50/50 I’d win. > > But I also would not have _much_ confidence that three out of five _won’t_ happen … and clearly the odds you offer show that _you don’t either_. > > 65% at this point means as Wang put it: > > The odds right now are _slightly_ in favor of a GOP majority but the odds of a Democratic majority is not a long shot. They are, as of now, the marginal underdogs going into this battle with the information we currently have. I bet on underdogs all the time … but I want good odds when I do. Ok. Let’s see. I’ll give you 3:1. You put up $100; I’ll put up $300. If the Senate Majority Leader next Congress is a Republican, I win – if he or she is a Democrat, you win. What do you say? ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [August 17, 2014, 7:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/143 "2014-08-17T19:50:58Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > I’ll give you 3:1. You put up $100; I’ll put up $300. If the Senate Majority Leader next Congress is a Republican, I win – if he or she is a Democrat, you win. > > What do you say? So you’re willing to lose $40, on average, to call someone’s bluff on a message board? Do you intend to write off your possible $300 loss on Form 1040 as some sort of political education charity? ---
**Author:** ![Chefguy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chefguy/32/138_2.png) [@Chefguy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chefguy)\ **Post date:** [August 17, 2014, 7:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/144 "2014-08-17T19:52:04Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > In the case of Alaska, it’s the same thing I talked about a month or two ago: Yes, the incumbent is ahead. Problem is, he’s polling under 45% and the GOP hasn’t even selected their nominee yet. Don’t bank on Crazy Joe bowing out, even after he loses the primary. He’s likely to make himself an Independent write-in. If you think that can’t make a difference, I’d invite you to look at what happened when Miller beat out Murkowski in the primary a couple of years ago. She ran as an Independent and kicked his ass. Crazy Joe can’t win against Sullivan, but he may be a spoiler. Sullivan is also being portrayed by the left as an East Coast outsider. Carpetbaggers don’t usually do well there. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [August 17, 2014, 8:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/145 "2014-08-17T20:02:43Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > Ok. Let’s see. > > I’ll give you 3:1. You put up $100; I’ll put up $300. If the Senate Majority Leader next Congress is a Republican, I win – if he or she is a Democrat, you win. > > What do you say? I’ll take those odds, but for $20 ($60 for you). I’m assuming this is to our chosen charity, right? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [August 17, 2014, 8:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/146 "2014-08-17T20:13:48Z")
> [@Chefguy](#): > > Don’t bank on Crazy Joe bowing out, even after he loses the primary. He’s likely to make himself an Independent write-in. If you think that can’t make a difference, I’d invite you to look at what happened when Miller beat out Murkowski in the primary a couple of years ago. She ran as an Independent and kicked his ass. Crazy Joe can’t win against Sullivan, but he may be a spoiler. Sullivan is also being portrayed by the left as an East Coast outsider. Carpetbaggers don’t usually do well there. Even the extreme ones just want to win this time. Miller says he will back the GOP nominee: [http://news.yahoo.com/miller-says-hell-back-alaska-gop-senate-nominee-041709365--politics.html;\_ylt=A0LEVxTSDPFTxnUAsARXNyoA](http://news.yahoo.com/miller-says-hell-back-alaska-gop-senate-nominee-041709365--politics.html;_ylt=A0LEVxTSDPFTxnUAsARXNyoA) ---
**Author:** ![Chefguy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chefguy/32/138_2.png) [@Chefguy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chefguy)\ **Post date:** [August 17, 2014, 8:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/147 "2014-08-17T20:32:18Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Even the extreme ones just want to win this time. Miller says he will back the GOP nominee: > > [http://news.yahoo.com/miller-says-hell-back-alaska-gop-senate-nominee-041709365--politics.html;\_ylt=A0LEVxTSDPFTxnUAsARXNyoA](http://news.yahoo.com/miller-says-hell-back-alaska-gop-senate-nominee-041709365--politics.html;_ylt=A0LEVxTSDPFTxnUAsARXNyoA) Not sure that’s a plus for Sullivan. 😃 ---
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [August 17, 2014, 8:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/148 "2014-08-17T20:57:02Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > So you’re willing to lose $40, on average, to call someone’s bluff on a message board? > > Do you intend to write off your possible $300 loss on Form 1040 as some sort of political education charity? Nah. I’ll write it off in my personal ledger as entertainment expense. ---
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [August 17, 2014, 8:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/149 "2014-08-17T20:59:00Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > I’ll take those odds, but for $20 ($60 for you). I’m assuming this is to our chosen charity, right? It can be, sure. Done. Your $20 will go to the Little Sisters of the Poor in Washington, DC. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [August 17, 2014, 9:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/150 "2014-08-17T21:29:36Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > It can be, sure. Done. > > Your $20 will go to the Little Sisters of the Poor in Washington, DC. Okay. And if the Senate Majority Leader is a Democrat, then your $60 will go to the International Women’s Health Coalition. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [August 17, 2014, 9:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/151 "2014-08-17T21:50:58Z")
I’ll take that bet at $100. ---
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [August 18, 2014, 5:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/152 "2014-08-18T17:18:10Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > I’ll take that bet at $100. Done. Is this payable to each other, or to a favorite charity? I’m good either way. I’ll owe you $300 if I lose; you’ll owe me $100 if I win. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [August 18, 2014, 5:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/153 "2014-08-18T17:35:07Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Okay. And if the Senate Majority Leader is a Democrat, then your $60 will go to the International Women’s Health Coalition. What happens if it’s Bernie Sanders? 😃 ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [August 18, 2014, 5:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/154 "2014-08-18T17:38:24Z")
> [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](#): > > What happens if it’s Bernie Sanders? 😃 Then Bricker pays the charity $666 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_Captor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/f17d59/32.png) [@Evil\_Captor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Captor)\ **Post date:** [August 18, 2014, 5:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/155 "2014-08-18T17:43:23Z")
All this blather. Don’t you remember, Nate Silver called the last election with remarkable accuracy? He says right now, the Republicans will likely win the Senate if things go as they are now, but it’s very close to an even money bet that they will. If the Democrats step up their game and the Republicans don’t, they could win it. If the Republicans fuck it up like they do on occasion, they could lose it. But Silver, who to my mind is the very representation of the concept of “the smart money” would take the Republicans to win on an even money bet. Those are the facts on the ground. ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [August 18, 2014, 5:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/156 "2014-08-18T17:51:31Z")
> [@Evil\_Captor](#): > > All this blather. Don’t you remember, Nate Silver called the last election with remarkable accuracy? He says right now, the Republicans will likely win the Senate if things go as they are now, but it’s very close to an even money bet that they will. Many people, when watching a horse race, find it much more exciting if they’ve bought a ticket. I’m a natural pessimist and thought seriously of betting GOP to win the White House in 2008. :eek: Give me some credit: that was before McCain picked his running-mate. 😛 ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [August 18, 2014, 5:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/157 "2014-08-18T17:52:26Z")
Right, any statement that begins “If the election were being held tomorrow …” can be safely dismissed. It ain’t tomorrow, it’s November. Campaigns have their own pace, their own rate at which people, and which kind, pay attention, their own pace of press coverage, etc. Lots of ball yet to be played. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [August 18, 2014, 6:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/158 "2014-08-18T18:55:11Z")
True, but given the results of “six year itch” elections, things are likely to only get worse for Democrats. Unless Republicans try to impeach the President, which is how they blew their last Six Year Itch election. And which is also why Democrats want to make their supporters think impeachment is imminent. It motivated them last time, might do it this time. Even if it’s not true. Democrats think about as much of their supporters’ intelligence as I do. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [August 18, 2014, 6:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/159 "2014-08-18T18:58:09Z")
More of Hannity’s historical cycle theories to the rescue? Republican impeachment talk had roughly jack to do with the last election, as I’m sure you actually know. But kudos for recognizing that there was one. ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_Captor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/f17d59/32.png) [@Evil\_Captor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Captor)\ **Post date:** [August 18, 2014, 7:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/160 "2014-08-18T19:00:29Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > True, but given the results of “six year itch” elections, things are likely to only get worse for Democrats. Unless Republicans try to impeach the President, which is how they blew their last Six Year Itch election. And which is also why Democrats want to make their supporters think impeachment is imminent. It motivated them last time, might do it this time. Even if it’s not true. Democrats think about as much of their supporters’ intelligence as I do. Then again, Republican voters voted for Bush in 2004, after they KNEW what an idiot he was, because they’d rather have a drink with him than John Kerry. You had to be SERIOUSLY stupid to vote for Bush in 2004, and almost half the American electorate did that. The Dem voters may be stupid, but they got NOTHING on Republican voters in the Dumbness Department. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426.md?page=7) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426.md?page=9)