# Gosh, I wonder if we will have a War

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gosh-i-wonder-if-we-will-have-a-war/610503>\
**Category:** In My Humble Opinion\
**Created:** [January 24, 2012, 3:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gosh-i-wonder-if-we-will-have-a-war/610503 "2012-01-24T15:26:22Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 9\
**Page:** 2

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**Author:** ![grude](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e47774/32.png) [@grude](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/grude)\
**Post date:** [January 25, 2012, 6:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gosh-i-wonder-if-we-will-have-a-war/610503/21 "2012-01-25T06:16:31Z")

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The attention Iran has been receiving in the USA media lately is interesting, I commented just the other day here we go again! Has it always been this transparent?

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**Author:** ![levdrakon](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/49beb7/32.png) [@levdrakon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/levdrakon)\
**Post date:** [January 25, 2012, 12:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gosh-i-wonder-if-we-will-have-a-war/610503/22 "2012-01-25T12:08:45Z")

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Iran is an international asshole. It likes being in the news, and if they aren’t in the news, they’ll grab a bunch of westerners, hold them hostage and threaten them with execution until they’re back in the news.

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**Author:** ![ralph124c](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/8797f3/32.png) [@ralph124c](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ralph124c)\
**Post date:** [January 25, 2012, 1:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gosh-i-wonder-if-we-will-have-a-war/610503/23 "2012-01-25T13:06:51Z")

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Its all about Iranian internal politics. The fanatics are hoping for a war, whilst those with cooler heads are biding their time, hoping that there will be a popular revolt against the mullahs.  
I predict that nothing will happen-the surge in the price of oil (brought on by this) has given the Iranian Government even more power.

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**Author:** ![Walther\_Ego](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/8dc957/32.png) [@Walther\_Ego](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Walther_Ego)\
**Post date:** [January 25, 2012, 1:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gosh-i-wonder-if-we-will-have-a-war/610503/24 "2012-01-25T13:42:05Z")

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A unified, orderly leadership of Iran will not start a war just before they are getting a nuclear weapon. My guess is that the mullahs are just that and will use the economic sanctions as a comfortable excuse to kick Ahmadinezad out. What they do about the sanctions is another issue. Of course, that the president of the republic is in opposition is an argument against a unified, orderly leadership.

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**Author:** ![Lumpy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lumpy/32/446_2.png) [@Lumpy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lumpy)\
**Post date:** [January 25, 2012, 3:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gosh-i-wonder-if-we-will-have-a-war/610503/25 "2012-01-25T15:05:10Z")

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> [@ralph124c](#):
>
> Its all about Iranian internal politics. The fanatics are hoping for a war, whilst those with cooler heads are biding their time, hoping that there will be a popular revolt against the mullahs.  
> I predict that nothing will happen-the surge in the price of oil (brought on by this) has given the Iranian Government even more power.

The surge in the price of oil doesn’t help Iran if they can’t sell any of it- that’s what the whole kerfluffle is about. For decades it’s been the case that nobody bought “Iranian” or “Saudi” oil- they bought oil from the world oil market. That’s why the new sanctions are so significant- they cripple the ability of the Iranian banks to receive money for putting Iranian oil on the world oil market.

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**Author:** ![Sailboat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sailboat/32/461_2.png) [@Sailboat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sailboat)\
**Post date:** [January 25, 2012, 4:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gosh-i-wonder-if-we-will-have-a-war/610503/26 "2012-01-25T16:51:09Z")

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> [@engineer\_comp\_geek](#):
>
> The first thing I thought of when I read the title of this thread was this, which has been going around the net somewhat recently:
> 
> > [@](#):
> >
> > Let’s be honest!
> > 
> > The Revolutionary War - 1775-1783  
> > The War of 1812 - 1812-1814  
> > The Mexican American War - 1836-1848  
> > The Spanish American War - 1897-1898  
> > The Indian American Wars - 1775 - 1918  
> > World War I - 1914-1918  
> > World War II - 1941-1945  
> > Cold War - 1945-1992  
> > The Vietnam War - 1962-1973  
> > The Invasion of Grenada - 1983-1984  
> > The Invasion of Panama - 1983-1984  
> > Operation Desert Storm - 1991-1992  
> > Operation United Shield - 1992-1995  
> > Operation Determined Falcon - 1998-1999  
> > Operation Enduring Freedom 2001-2011  
> > Operation Iraqi Freedom 2003-2011  
> > Operation Freedom Falcon - 2011 -
> > 
> > We have been a country for 235 years  
> > and we have been at war for 209 Years

I find it odd that the American Civil War didn’t make that list, but Panama did.

> [@ralph124c](#):
>
> Its all about Iranian internal politics. The fanatics are hoping for a war, whilst those with cooler heads are biding their time, hoping that there will be a popular revolt against the mullahs.

Leaving aside the question of sanctions and the price of oil, this is an insightful post. “All politics is local,” as they say.

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**Author:** ![ralph124c](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/8797f3/32.png) [@ralph124c](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ralph124c)\
**Post date:** [January 25, 2012, 5:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gosh-i-wonder-if-we-will-have-a-war/610503/27 "2012-01-25T17:49:34Z")

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> [@Lumpy](#):
>
> The surge in the price of oil doesn’t help Iran if they can’t sell any of it- that’s what the whole kerfluffle is about. For decades it’s been the case that nobody bought “Iranian” or “Saudi” oil- they bought oil from the world oil market. That’s why the new sanctions are so significant- they cripple the ability of the Iranian banks to receive money for putting Iranian oil on the world oil market.

I would argue that the Iranians CAN sell their oil-suppose you ship your oil to Russia-it gets labelled “Product of Russia” and gets sold. Or suppose it gets out via pipeline to Kirgyzistan-who is to say it isn’t from there?

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**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\
**Post date:** [January 25, 2012, 6:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gosh-i-wonder-if-we-will-have-a-war/610503/28 "2012-01-25T18:24:35Z")

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> [@Sailboat](#):
>
> I find it odd that the American Civil War didn’t make that list, but Panama did…

Some of the years are screwy, too:

The War of 1812 extended into 1815 with the Battle of New Orleans.  
The Mexican War was just two years long, from 1846-1848.  
The Spanish-American War was fought, won and over in 1898.  
The U.S. only fought in World War I from 1917-1918.  
Military operations in Grenada were limited to a few days in Oct. 1983.  
Military operations in Panama were just from Dec. 1989-Jan. 1990.

\*Caveat emptor. \*

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**Author:** ![Chessic\_Sense](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/7c8e57/32.png) [@Chessic\_Sense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chessic_Sense)\
**Post date:** [January 25, 2012, 6:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gosh-i-wonder-if-we-will-have-a-war/610503/29 "2012-01-25T18:56:15Z")

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> [@engineer\_comp\_geek](#):
>
> The first thing I thought of when I read the title of this thread was this, which has been going around the net somewhat recently:  
> The Indian American Wars - **1775 - 1918**  
> …  
> and we have been at war for 209 Years

That oughta do it.

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