# Greek default seems to be inevitable...what's the fallout?

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/greek-default-seems-to-be-inevitable-whats-the-fallout/723811>\
**Category:** Great Debates\
**Created:** [June 29, 2015, 8:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/greek-default-seems-to-be-inevitable-whats-the-fallout/723811 "2015-06-29T20:24:18Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 20\
**Page:** 15

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**Author:** ![up\_the\_junction](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/f1d935/32.png) [@up\_the\_junction](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/up_the_junction)\
**Post date:** [July 7, 2015, 12:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/greek-default-seems-to-be-inevitable-whats-the-fallout/723811/281 "2015-07-07T12:26:19Z")

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> [@Rune](#):
>
> What nonsense? Greek tax collection is a disaster and both Latvia, Lithuania and Slovakia are poorer than Greece and have had to pay to Greek debt programs. Those are facts.

You mean those nasty Germans are forcing countries to lend money? Could you remind us of the mechanism?

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**Author:** ![Shodan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9f8e36/32.png) [@Shodan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shodan)\
**Post date:** [July 7, 2015, 12:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/greek-default-seems-to-be-inevitable-whats-the-fallout/723811/282 "2015-07-07T12:40:27Z")

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Same way that they force the Greeks to borrow.

Regards,  
Shodan

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**Author:** ![Rune](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e68b1a/32.png) [@Rune](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rune)\
**Post date:** [July 7, 2015, 1:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/greek-default-seems-to-be-inevitable-whats-the-fallout/723811/283 "2015-07-07T13:11:13Z")

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> [@up\_the\_junction](#):
>
> You mean those nasty Germans are forcing countries to lend money? Could you remind us of the mechanism?

What is it with you and the Germans. Foolsguinea said something about Latvians not sending money to Greece. I noted that it is a fact that they did (250 euro for every man, woman, child and pensioner - not a small sum in fact). And the latest is that Germany and France together has given Greece a 24 hour ultimatum – but that the Dutch are one-upping it saying Greece should accept the reforms now or it’s game over. Finland too demands extensive reforms in Greece, and the East European nations are saying stop ([Eurozone’s poorer nations take hard line on Greece](http://news.yahoo.com/eurozones-poorer-nations-hard-line-greece-210706427.html)) But let’s pretend it’s all Germany lets. And at least the Greeks have Cuba and Castro on their side. And that’s got to count for something.

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**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\
**Post date:** [July 7, 2015, 1:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/greek-default-seems-to-be-inevitable-whats-the-fallout/723811/284 "2015-07-07T13:17:40Z")

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> [@septimus](#):
>
> What does it mean to blame the Greek people? **XT** , are you specifically targeting wealthy Greeks who, rather than paying their taxes, spent the money on yachts? If the U.S.'s IRS were toothless do you think Americans would still pay their taxes?

Well, you are conflating a lot of stuff here that I didn’t and haven’t said. What it means to ME to place part of the blame on the ‘Greek people’ is pretty simple…the people who voted in and supported the policies of their governments and politicians in the past that got them into this mess. They aren’t blameless. Sure, those folks include rich guys who don’t pay their taxes as it includes everyone else who is supposed to pay their taxes and don’t.

As to your IRS question, it’s kind of a cart and horse situation. We have a strong IRS because we have a strong rule of law. I think even when the IRS was less strong Americans generally paid their taxes (what little were on the books in the early days) unless you want to go back to when the Brits were in charge, of course. 😛 From what I’ve read the Greeks have pretty much never (in modern times) collected anything close to all the taxes that are or were on the books.

> [@](#):
>
> It is important to face a crisis like this with a clear mind about political and economic realities and _not treat it as a morality play_. This applies to both sides of the political spectrum of course; neither “Those rich bankers shouldn’t have been so greedy” nor “Those lower-class Greeks shouldn’t be so lazy” is useful. Instead, the task is to set _institutions_ on a proper path.

I wasn’t treating any of this as a morality play. That’s YOUR strawman of my position. I never said anything about the Greeks being ‘lazy’…again, your strawman, not my position.

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**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\
**Post date:** [July 7, 2015, 1:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/greek-default-seems-to-be-inevitable-whats-the-fallout/723811/285 "2015-07-07T13:24:42Z")

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> [@Rune](#):
>
> What is it with you and the Germans. Foolsguinea said something about Latvians not sending money to Greece. I noted that it is a fact that they did (250 euro for every man, woman, child and pensioner - not a small sum in fact). And the latest is that Germany and France together has given Greece a 24 hour ultimatum – but that the Dutch are one-upping it saying Greece should accept the reforms now or it’s game over. Finland too demands extensive reforms in Greece, and the East European nations are saying stop ([Eurozone’s poorer nations take hard line on Greece](http://news.yahoo.com/eurozones-poorer-nations-hard-line-greece-210706427.html)) But let’s pretend it’s all Germany lets. And at least the Greeks have Cuba and Castro on their side. And that’s got to count for something.

He’s basically got his talking points narrative from some source and by the gods it’s all the Germans fault! Don’t try and confuse him with facts when he knows what he nose!

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**Author:** ![davidm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/davidm/32/225_2.png) [@davidm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/davidm)\
**Post date:** [July 7, 2015, 1:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/greek-default-seems-to-be-inevitable-whats-the-fallout/723811/286 "2015-07-07T13:27:18Z")

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“Greece debt crisis: France ‘will do everything’ to keep Greece in eurozone  
7 July 2015”

> **[Greece debt crisis: France presses to keep Greece in eurozone](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-33421521)**
>
> France says it will do everything it can to help Greece reach a deal over its debt and remain within the eurozone, ahead of an emergency summit.

> [@](#):
>
> France will do all it can to keep Greece in the eurozone, because allowing it to leave would be too risky, Prime Minister Manuel Valls has said.
> 
> “The basis for a deal exists,” he said ahead of an emergency eurozone summit.  
> …  
> In his comments on Tuesday, Mr Valls said the eurozone could not “take the risk of Greece leaving” - for economic as well as political reasons.
> 
> “There is no taboo subject when it comes to [Greek] debt,” he told French radio.

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**Author:** ![Donnerwetter](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b2d939/32.png) [@Donnerwetter](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Donnerwetter)\
**Post date:** [July 7, 2015, 1:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/greek-default-seems-to-be-inevitable-whats-the-fallout/723811/287 "2015-07-07T13:34:14Z")

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> [@](#):
>
> Yanis Varoufakis to become mysterious tough drifter
> 
> GREECE’S former finance minister has unveiled plans to ride around on his motorbike having martial arts battles with local villains.
> 
> The freewheeling politician said he will go to whichever small town needs his help, taking manly temporary jobs like labourer or nightclub bouncer and standing up for locals against corrupt local bosses and their heavies.

> **[Yanis Varoufakis to become mysterious tough drifter](https://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/international/yanis-varoufakis-to-become-mysterious-tough-drifter-2015070799923)**
>
> GREECE’S former finance minister has unveiled plans to ride around on his motorbike having martial arts battles with local villains.

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**Author:** ![davidm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/davidm/32/225_2.png) [@davidm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/davidm)\
**Post date:** [July 7, 2015, 1:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/greek-default-seems-to-be-inevitable-whats-the-fallout/723811/288 "2015-07-07T13:42:18Z")

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> [@Donnerwetter](#):
>
> [Yanis Varoufakis to become mysterious tough drifter | The Daily Mash](http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/international/yanis-varoufakis-to-become-mysterious-tough-drifter-2015070799923)

You do realize that that’s one of those fake news satire sites, right?  
[http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/about](http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/about)

That is pretty funny though.

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**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\
**Post date:** [July 7, 2015, 1:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/greek-default-seems-to-be-inevitable-whats-the-fallout/723811/289 "2015-07-07T13:51:18Z")

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> [@XT](#):
>
> Well, you are conflating a lot of stuff here that I didn’t and haven’t said. What it means to ME to place part of the blame on the ‘Greek people’ is pretty simple…  
> I wasn’t treating any of this as a morality play. That’s YOUR strawman of my position. I never said anything about the Greeks being ‘lazy’…again, your strawman, not my position.

I’m sorry if I conflated your position (and in any event “lazy” was just an example trait for a clarifying example).  
But you were the one who wrote “Greek PEOPLE” using the CapsLock emphasis. If you’d used a term like “Greek politics” or “Greek traditions” I’d not have taken offense.

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**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\
**Post date:** [July 7, 2015, 2:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/greek-default-seems-to-be-inevitable-whats-the-fallout/723811/290 "2015-07-07T14:12:02Z")

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> [@septimus](#):
>
> I’m sorry if I conflated your position (and in any event “lazy” was just an example trait for a clarifying example).  
> But you were the one who wrote “Greek PEOPLE” using the CapsLock emphasis. If you’d used a term like “Greek politics” or “Greek traditions” I’d not have taken offense.

The Greek political parties were already on the list, as I noted, and I’m totally good with both present and, especially past political parties in Greece taking their share of the blame. But the folks who actually live in Greece and voted for those folks and who benefited and actually demanded of those politicians all of the jobs and benefits also need to share in the blame if we are looking to point fingers (which is what that article was about).

Personally, I’m less inclined to place blame as to try and find solutions to the mess at this point. I think part of the issue that some of the Europeans have is they are trying to fix blame and even apply punishment instead of find solutions that will work. The Greeks fucked up by taking on enormous debt that they couldn’t possibly pay back…they aren’t the only countries to do so. The bankers and folks who loaned them money fucked up as well, as did the European agencies who initially dealt with and have continued to deal with the mess. At this point I think everyone needs to move on and see if there are any solutions not more finger pointing.

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**Author:** ![up\_the\_junction](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/f1d935/32.png) [@up\_the\_junction](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/up_the_junction)\
**Post date:** [July 7, 2015, 2:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/greek-default-seems-to-be-inevitable-whats-the-fallout/723811/291 "2015-07-07T14:18:35Z")

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> [@Shodan](#):
>
> Same way that they force the Greeks to borrow.
> 
> Regards,  
> Shodan

Exactly.

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**Author:** ![up\_the\_junction](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/f1d935/32.png) [@up\_the\_junction](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/up_the_junction)\
**Post date:** [July 7, 2015, 2:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/greek-default-seems-to-be-inevitable-whats-the-fallout/723811/292 "2015-07-07T14:20:47Z")

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> [@Rune](#):
>
> What is it with you and the Germans. Foolsguinea said something about Latvians not sending money to Greece. I noted that it is a fact that they did (250 euro for every man, woman, child and pensioner - not a small sum in fact). And the latest is that Germany and France together has given Greece a 24 hour ultimatum – but that the Dutch are one-upping it saying Greece should accept the reforms now or it’s game over. Finland too demands extensive reforms in Greece, and the East European nations are saying stop ([Eurozone’s poorer nations take hard line on Greece](http://news.yahoo.com/eurozones-poorer-nations-hard-line-greece-210706427.html)) But let’s pretend it’s all Germany lets. And at least the Greeks have Cuba and Castro on their side. And that’s got to count for something.

I just asked for the financial mechanism, is all.

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**Author:** ![Shodan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9f8e36/32.png) [@Shodan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shodan)\
**Post date:** [July 7, 2015, 2:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/greek-default-seems-to-be-inevitable-whats-the-fallout/723811/293 "2015-07-07T14:22:31Z")

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In other words, not at all.

Regards,  
Shodan

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**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\
**Post date:** [July 7, 2015, 2:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/greek-default-seems-to-be-inevitable-whats-the-fallout/723811/294 "2015-07-07T14:32:45Z")

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[Here’s](http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-33408466) a pretty good BBC article on the various stances of the other European nations and their governments on this whole thing:

> [@](#):
>
> Greek debt crisis: Where do other eurozone countries stand?
> 
> Eurozone leaders will meet this week to discuss how to deal with the growing debt crisis in Greece
> 
> Greek voters overwhelmingly rejected the terms of an international bailout on Sunday - and Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras is currently compiling an alternative list of proposals to present to his counterparts in Brussels.
> 
> Although some countries are keen to strike a compromise, others have taken a more hardened stance.

Long story short, looks like many of the Northern European nations are more inclined towards Germany’s take on it, while most of the Southern European nations seem more willing to compromise. I think it breaks down to whether countries think Greece leaving the EZ would adversely affect them and what their perceived exposure is, though France is the odd nation out in this respect since they seem to be for making a compromise even though their exposure isn’t as much (though they were the second highest nation holding Greek debt).

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**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\
**Post date:** [July 7, 2015, 2:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/greek-default-seems-to-be-inevitable-whats-the-fallout/723811/295 "2015-07-07T14:43:12Z")

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… and the new Greek Finance Minister arrives at the meeting today without the promised proposal. Delayed till Wednesday. More games.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\
**Post date:** [July 7, 2015, 2:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/greek-default-seems-to-be-inevitable-whats-the-fallout/723811/296 "2015-07-07T14:50:31Z")

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> [@Terr](#):
>
> … and the new Greek Finance Minister arrives at the meeting today without the promised proposal. Delayed till Wednesday. More games.

Yeah, just saw that [here](http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-33426328). Ugh.

> [@](#):
>
> Greece has submitted “no concrete proposals” for a new bailout, at a key meeting of eurozone finance ministers, Malta’s PM says.
> 
> Joseph Muscat tweeted that this “doesn’t help this evening’s eurozone leaders’ meeting” in Brussels.
> 
> The eurozone had urged Greece to submit fresh plans after its people rejected a new draft bailout in a referendum.
> 
> Greek PM Alexis Tsipras is to address the European Parliament on Wednesday, a Greek government source said.

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**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\
**Post date:** [July 7, 2015, 3:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/greek-default-seems-to-be-inevitable-whats-the-fallout/723811/297 "2015-07-07T15:06:52Z")

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> [@XT](#):
>
> Yeah, just saw that [here](http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-33426328). Ugh.

I really don’t know what the hell the Greek government is playing at. This latest shenanigan is amateur hour.

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**Author:** ![filmstar-en](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/50afbb/32.png) [@filmstar-en](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/filmstar-en)\
**Post date:** [July 7, 2015, 4:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/greek-default-seems-to-be-inevitable-whats-the-fallout/723811/298 "2015-07-07T16:09:03Z")

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The Spanish seem to be much more confident about their future, not wishing to be compared with the Greeks.

> **[How does Greek No vote impact Spain?](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-europe-33406693)**
>
> Spain's left-wing anti-austerity party - which did well in recent regional elections - has welcomed the Greek 'No' result.

Other EU countries with large amounts of public debt are trying to grow their way out of it and cut public expenditure. It hurts to do this and takes political determination.

The Greek politicians just seem to tell their electorate what they want to hear: it is someone elses fault and they should not have to suffer any austerity. Blame Germany, the IMF, anyone but themselves.  
It all seems so very immature.

They have to pull a rabbit out of the hat pretty soon and offer a deal that everyone can live with.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![up\_the\_junction](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/f1d935/32.png) [@up\_the\_junction](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/up_the_junction)\
**Post date:** [July 7, 2015, 4:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/greek-default-seems-to-be-inevitable-whats-the-fallout/723811/299 "2015-07-07T16:58:13Z")

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> [@filmstar-en](#):
>
> The Spanish seem to be much more confident about their future, not wishing to be compared with the Greeks.
> 
> [http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-33406693](http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-33406693)
> 
> Other EU countries with large amounts of public debt are trying to grow their way out of it and cut public expenditure. It hurts to do this and takes political determination.
> 
> The Greek politicians just seem to tell their electorate what they want to hear: it is someone elses fault and they should not have to suffer any austerity. Blame Germany, the IMF, anyone but themselves.  
> It all seems so very immature.
> 
> They have to pull a rabbit out of the hat pretty soon and offer a deal that everyone can live with.

Why not reduce entire populations to one emotion. Does it make the complexity easier to form opinions on?

Did you miss the admission last week from the IMF that the economy needs a 20-year grace period and simply cannot do what the German gov wants?

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\
**Post date:** [July 7, 2015, 5:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/greek-default-seems-to-be-inevitable-whats-the-fallout/723811/300 "2015-07-07T17:30:35Z")

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I hope this Greek crisis will finally give national debt a stigma.

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