# Greek default seems to be inevitable...what's the fallout? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [June 29, 2015, 8:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/greek-default-seems-to-be-inevitable-whats-the-fallout/723811 "2015-06-29T20:24:18Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 20
**Author:** ![usedtobe](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ec9cab/32.png) [@usedtobe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/usedtobe)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2015, 11:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/greek-default-seems-to-be-inevitable-whats-the-fallout/723811/381 "2015-07-11T23:53:46Z")
The good PM made an ass of himself demanding “Dignity”, (and the people backed him by 60%), the Finance Minister’s assured them that a NO vote would “force” the hated Troika to capitulate. You think maybe even the French hardened their view a bit? After that performance, I’d suggest that anyone who thinks the current government can be trusted is a fool. Let them go their own way, with all the dignity they want - when they actually implement the policies being “promised”, they can come back and talk. ---
**Author:** ![up\_the\_junction](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/f1d935/32.png) [@up\_the\_junction](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/up_the_junction)\ **Post date:** [July 12, 2015, 7:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/greek-default-seems-to-be-inevitable-whats-the-fallout/723811/382 "2015-07-12T07:48:42Z")
LOL. ‘trust’ vs. ‘dignity’ this morning - and I see the Telegraph has gone all Flash Gordon for the third time this week: [Flash, I love you! But we only have fourteen hours to save the Earth!](http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11734202/24-hours-to-save-the-euro-Germany-prepares-for-a-temporary-Greek-exit-as-euro-project-on-the-brink-of-collapse.html) ---
**Author:** ![Donnerwetter](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b2d939/32.png) [@Donnerwetter](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Donnerwetter)\ **Post date:** [July 12, 2015, 8:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/greek-default-seems-to-be-inevitable-whats-the-fallout/723811/383 "2015-07-12T08:02:43Z")
Looks like Finland, Slovakia, the Netherlands, Slovenia, Lithuania, Estonia and Germany are going to tell Greece: _Oxi_! ---
**Author:** ![usedtobe](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ec9cab/32.png) [@usedtobe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/usedtobe)\ **Post date:** [July 12, 2015, 8:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/greek-default-seems-to-be-inevitable-whats-the-fallout/723811/384 "2015-07-12T08:26:12Z")
Better late than never. The original (2010) bailout was financed by private banks. When the payments stopped coming (if the Greeks ever did make a payment), their governments bought the loans - at half their face value. How many people have to lose how much before they see a pattern? ---
**Author:** ![up\_the\_junction](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/f1d935/32.png) [@up\_the\_junction](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/up_the_junction)\ **Post date:** [July 12, 2015, 8:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/greek-default-seems-to-be-inevitable-whats-the-fallout/723811/385 "2015-07-12T08:46:08Z")
> [@usedtobe](#): > > How many people have to lose how much before they see a pattern? “People”? It’s not a 19th century trans-continental railway. Banks or institutions loan or buy debt for profit and/or strategic reasons. The constant, relentless desire to turn this into a bogus, homesy, two personality matter is kind of pathetic: ‘gee, you let the bank down, Homer’ ---
**Author:** ![Donnerwetter](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b2d939/32.png) [@Donnerwetter](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Donnerwetter)\ **Post date:** [July 12, 2015, 8:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/greek-default-seems-to-be-inevitable-whats-the-fallout/723811/386 "2015-07-12T08:55:34Z")
You can follow a very useful Twitter list about the Greek crisis: [https://twitter.com/GreekAnalyst/lists/greek-crisis](https://twitter.com/GreekAnalyst/lists/greek-crisis) created by [The Greek Analyst](https://twitter.com/greekanalyst) ---
**Author:** ![camille](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/22d042/32.png) [@camille](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/camille)\ **Post date:** [July 12, 2015, 9:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/greek-default-seems-to-be-inevitable-whats-the-fallout/723811/387 "2015-07-12T09:03:59Z")
> [@camille](#): > > Based on my reading of the noted cites: > > The Eurogroup finance ministers have to agree unanimously to mandate negotiations. > > Once that is achieved (if it is), the European Commission can negotiate with Greece and requires a majority decision to sign off on their end. > > Please correct me if this is wrong. Well, no one corrected me, so I needed to fight my own ignorance. In case anyone else is still unsure: I found out that emergency funds go through the [**ESM (European Stability Mechanism)**](https://doc.research-and-analytics.csfb.com/docView?language=ENG&format=PDF&source=em&document_id=1002045321&serialid=YiV93D198UryyTOfk5ytJk5BlEQZtjoMMyHxl6%2fHtqo%3d), which has a different voting procedure: > [@](#): > > - An emergency procedure requires an 85% majority vote – the quorum rules apply to all votes. > > - Germany, France and Italy could individually block an 85% majority vote. > > - Germany or France individually could block a decision by qualified majority (80%). > > - The only option open to the smaller countries to block a vote is if they create a group of six. So if **Donnerwetter** is correct, the vote will be blocked. Talks will continue later today, so it’s not over yet. ---
**Author:** ![Donnerwetter](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b2d939/32.png) [@Donnerwetter](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Donnerwetter)\ **Post date:** [July 12, 2015, 11:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/greek-default-seems-to-be-inevitable-whats-the-fallout/723811/388 "2015-07-12T11:00:34Z")
It is really impossible to predict anything at this point. All bets are off. There might be no decision today after all. ---
**Author:** ![Rune](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e68b1a/32.png) [@Rune](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rune)\ **Post date:** [July 12, 2015, 11:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/greek-default-seems-to-be-inevitable-whats-the-fallout/723811/389 "2015-07-12T11:03:58Z")
> [@up\_the\_junction](#): > > “People”? It’s not a 19th century trans-continental railway. > > Banks or institutions loan or buy debt for profit and/or strategic reasons. > > The constant, relentless desire to turn this into a bogus, homesy, two personality matter is kind of pathetic: ‘gee, you let the bank down, Homer’ The largest private institutions buying debt are pension funds. In other words: people. ---
**Author:** ![up\_the\_junction](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/f1d935/32.png) [@up\_the\_junction](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/up_the_junction)\ **Post date:** [July 12, 2015, 12:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/greek-default-seems-to-be-inevitable-whats-the-fallout/723811/390 "2015-07-12T12:22:59Z")
> [@Rune](#): > > The largest private institutions buying debt are pension funds. In other words: people. Hey Govmints is people, too! ---
**Author:** ![Donnerwetter](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b2d939/32.png) [@Donnerwetter](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Donnerwetter)\ **Post date:** [July 12, 2015, 2:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/greek-default-seems-to-be-inevitable-whats-the-fallout/723811/391 "2015-07-12T14:12:48Z")
> [@](#): > > Tourists in Greece report problems changing cash > UK travellers on the island of Naxos say some banks have refused to exchange pounds for euros > **[Tourists in Greece report problems changing cash](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jul/12/tourists-in-greece-report-problems-changing-cash?CMP=twt_gu&CMP=twt_gu)** > > UK travellers on the island of Naxos say some banks have refused to exchange pounds for euros ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [July 12, 2015, 6:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/greek-default-seems-to-be-inevitable-whats-the-fallout/723811/392 "2015-07-12T18:28:37Z")
Well, looks like [no deal for today](http://money.cnn.com/2015/07/12/news/economy/greece-bailout-europe-conditions/index.html). Greece slips closer to the edge, but they are still talking. > [@](#): > > It’s really crunch time now for Greece. > > This much was clear Sunday: Europe will not offer Greece the massive bailout it urgently needs to stay in the euro unless it commits to much deeper economic reforms and shows it can deliver them. > > That was the message from European finance officials, after they kicked off a second day of frantic diplomacy Sunday on Greece’s request for a new rescue. > > Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras, arriving for talks in Brussels with the leaders of the other 18 countries that use the euro, said he was ready to compromise. > > Whether that will be enough to get the money flowing again soon, and allow Greek banks to reopen, remains unclear. > > German Chancellor Angela Merkel cautioned that Sunday’s talks would be “difficult, and there won’t be a deal at any price.” > > Europe and the International Monetary Fund estimate Greece needs between 72 billion and 74 billion euros ($82 billion) over the next three years. They have already lent Greece about 233 billion euros since 2010. > [@](#): > > Several officials made clear that the Greek government needed to go beyond a reform proposal it submitted last week, and commit to more changes to pensions, taxes and other areas. And it needs to provide proof those measures will happen. > > “We’ve come a long way but big issues still are open, so we’re going to put those to the government leaders and it’s up to them,” said Jeroen Dijsselbloem, who chaired the meeting of finance officials. > > Finland’s finance minster, Alex Stubb, said Greece was being asked to pass into law a series of far-reaching conditions by July 15. > > Trust in Greece’s commitment to reform was shattered by January’s election of a prime minister fiercely opposed to austerity, and a series of government U-turns in the last two weeks – including calling a referendum to reject reforms it then signed up to days later. > [@](#): > > Assuming Greece accepts a broader overhaul of the economy, there are still other potential roadblocks standing in the way of a third bailout. > > Opinion in some other countries that use the euro, including Germany and Finland, is running high against another rescue. Taxpayers don’t want to put more public money at risk. A new bailout would need to be ratified by parliament in Germany, and a handful of other countries. > > And Greece wants creditors to restructure its debt. Europe could give it even more time to pay back loans, and cut already very low rates of interest, but that may not be enough. Some eurozone countries insist they can’t go further and cancel Greek debt outright. > > That in turn could kill a deal. Some eurozone countries say they’ll only back a third bailout if the IMF takes part. The IMF has made clear that it will only participate if the Europeans agree to restructure Greece’s debt. ---
**Author:** ![Donnerwetter](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b2d939/32.png) [@Donnerwetter](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Donnerwetter)\ **Post date:** [July 12, 2015, 8:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/greek-default-seems-to-be-inevitable-whats-the-fallout/723811/393 "2015-07-12T20:25:19Z")
There is a brutal massacre going on in Brussels right now. Absolutely stunning and unprecedented. ---
**Author:** ![Alessan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alessan/32/465_2.png) [@Alessan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alessan)\ **Post date:** [July 12, 2015, 8:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/greek-default-seems-to-be-inevitable-whats-the-fallout/723811/394 "2015-07-12T20:28:27Z")
> [@Donnerwetter](#): > > [Tourists in Greece report problems changing cash | Greece | The Guardian](http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jul/12/tourists-in-greece-report-problems-changing-cash?CMP=twt_gu&CMP=twt_gu) My in-laws went to Crete last week for three nights. They were smart enough to bring about 1000 euros with them in cash. ---
**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\ **Post date:** [July 12, 2015, 9:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/greek-default-seems-to-be-inevitable-whats-the-fallout/723811/395 "2015-07-12T21:07:56Z")
Hm. From the latest reporting, it seems that Tsipras’ clowning around in the last few weeks have so hugely damaged the relations between Greece and EU and so incredibly undermined any trust that some (seems like half of) EU members have towards Greece that nothing less than a complete Greek capitulation and ceding of financial sovereignty will produce any deal now. Tsipras, I think, will be cited for the next few hundred years as a textbook of example of how NOT to negotiate. ---
**Author:** ![camille](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/22d042/32.png) [@camille](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/camille)\ **Post date:** [July 12, 2015, 9:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/greek-default-seems-to-be-inevitable-whats-the-fallout/723811/396 "2015-07-12T21:25:54Z")
And how will history remember Merkel? ---
**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\ **Post date:** [July 12, 2015, 9:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/greek-default-seems-to-be-inevitable-whats-the-fallout/723811/397 "2015-07-12T21:30:30Z")
> [@camille](#): > > And how will history remember Merkel? Depends if EU falls apart or not. If it does, not kindly. If it doesn’t, and actually becomes stronger without Greece - as a genius. Regardless of how Greece eventually, decades later, comes out of this, Tsipras’ shenanigans will definitely go down in history as some of the most inept negotiating tactics ever. As for short term, Merkel seems to be getting stronger politically in the last few days. Tsipras, on the other hand, if he manages to survive as PM for the next month, I will be amazed. ---
**Author:** ![usedtobe](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ec9cab/32.png) [@usedtobe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/usedtobe)\ **Post date:** [July 12, 2015, 9:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/greek-default-seems-to-be-inevitable-whats-the-fallout/723811/398 "2015-07-12T21:37:53Z")
Is there any precedent for Tsipras’ level of screw-up? He had an deal much kinder to Greece on the table and walks away, demanding his populace vote it down, based on the theory that rejecting that (by then withdrawn) deal would “force” the lenders to throw money at them. He is now faced with demands for hard collateral for a new loan, the requirement to enact laws backing up what he is promising. So much for Europe. Maybe he can hit up the IMF (with which he has already missed a payment) - IMF says "“Go get Europe’s permission” Well, China is using its wealth to buy access, maybe they will be good for a buck or two. Well, it seems that China has already bought a Greek port, spent a boatload of money re-building it. Then Tsipras re-nationalizes it. How about Russia? Well, he got a lovely 8x10 of himself shaking Putin’s hand, but not a peep - not even a note of sympathy. Which leaves the money th Greeks who didn’t get theirs out of Greek banks have sitting there not doing anything. Cyprus raided its citizen’s piggy banks, so… If there weren’t so many people getting crushed, this would be funny - the ultimate in “Dumb Criminals”-type slapstick. Come Monday, Tsipras needs to be out of a job and the most recent Greek leader with some credibility needs to be named acting PM. ---
**Author:** ![up\_the\_junction](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/f1d935/32.png) [@up\_the\_junction](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/up_the_junction)\ **Post date:** [July 12, 2015, 9:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/greek-default-seems-to-be-inevitable-whats-the-fallout/723811/399 "2015-07-12T21:52:47Z")
“An EU official describes it as ‘extensive mental waterboarding’” Merkel needs to be seen to be revving German tanks on the Greek Finance Ministry lawn. What I love about Germans is they really embrace hard ball. You absolutely know what you’re going to get. Fuck the Germans. ---
**Author:** ![usedtobe](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ec9cab/32.png) [@usedtobe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/usedtobe)\ **Post date:** [July 12, 2015, 11:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/greek-default-seems-to-be-inevitable-whats-the-fallout/723811/400 "2015-07-12T23:11:58Z")
That attitude is pretty much what destroyed Greece’s credibility. We got the money - fuck 'em. 233 Billion (with a B) later and the original lenders losing 50% on loans to Greece, and they still have a corrupt civil service and wholesale tax evasion. When the lenders demand a VAT, it means they don’t think you could get any money from your people unless you hold their purchases hostage and demand the tax as condition of purchase. Do you think that maybe this time (the 3rd bailout in 5 years) the message has gotten through? It hasn’t - they still won’t pay taxes or demand a cleanup of the Civil Service. Tsipras is supposed to be an extreme Leftist. Don’t Leftists generally think the rich should pay taxes? How did Greece get to the point that, when broke, demand foreign entities give them money? Isn’t the usual to raise taxes internally? The No vote was absolutely breathtaking. An entire nation demanding a handout instead of looking at domestic problems. We demand free money and nobody can tell us how to spend it! In how many countries could such an attitude develop? You want “Dignity”? Show a bit of “Pride” and stop begging. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/greek-default-seems-to-be-inevitable-whats-the-fallout/723811.md?page=19) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/greek-default-seems-to-be-inevitable-whats-the-fallout/723811.md?page=21)