# Greek default seems to be inevitable...what's the fallout? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [June 29, 2015, 8:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/greek-default-seems-to-be-inevitable-whats-the-fallout/723811 "2015-06-29T20:24:18Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 24
**Author:** ![up\_the\_junction](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/f1d935/32.png) [@up\_the\_junction](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/up_the_junction)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2015, 6:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/greek-default-seems-to-be-inevitable-whats-the-fallout/723811/461 "2015-07-14T06:55:30Z")
if ‘fuck the Germans’ is non Gratia, the phrase _neo-colonial servitude_ nails the position pretty freakin well - kudos Telegraph. With all sides claiming victory and moral highground … I would hope and expect the Greek Parliament to respond with a hearty fuck neo-colonial servitude. ---
**Author:** ![camille](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/22d042/32.png) [@camille](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/camille)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2015, 7:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/greek-default-seems-to-be-inevitable-whats-the-fallout/723811/462 "2015-07-14T07:09:11Z")
> [@up\_the\_junction](#): > > … I would hope and expect the Greek Parliament to respond with a hearty fuck neo-colonial servitude. Tsipras has got to convince ALL the MPs from New Democracy, Pasok, and To Potami (106 votes), PLUS 45 out the 149 Syriza MPs. He’s got less than 2 days to do it. ---
**Author:** ![up\_the\_junction](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/f1d935/32.png) [@up\_the\_junction](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/up_the_junction)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2015, 7:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/greek-default-seems-to-be-inevitable-whats-the-fallout/723811/463 "2015-07-14T07:22:28Z")
I think he’s done his bit - whatever people think of that. Through the referendum the people made their view very clear. That just leaves the MPs … ---
**Author:** ![JoseB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/joseb/32/1530_2.png) [@JoseB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JoseB)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2015, 12:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/greek-default-seems-to-be-inevitable-whats-the-fallout/723811/464 "2015-07-14T12:29:32Z")
> [@up\_the\_junction](#): > > I think he’s done his bit - whatever people think of that. > > Through the referendum the people made their view very clear. That just leaves the MPs … I have a feeling that the MPs will dutifully make Greece drop its trousers, bend over and let Germany, Finland and the rest take turns thoroughly reaming it. The alternative is a non-zero chance of ending up hanged from a lamppost when the country crashes hard. The choice is not pretty: either accept harsh terms and try to manage a semi -controlled landing (at the price of tears, hardships, imposed outside control and humiliation, but with a chance of eventually getting out of the mess relatively intact) or crash so hard that you won’t even see the bottom of the crater. I think that the Greek MPs understand that, generally speaking. ---
**Author:** ![camille](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/22d042/32.png) [@camille](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/camille)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2015, 4:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/greek-default-seems-to-be-inevitable-whats-the-fallout/723811/465 "2015-07-14T16:26:20Z")
Is [Schaeuble](http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/business/german-finmin-suggested-greece-could-issue-ious-report/articleshow/48067018.cms) still pushing for a GREXIT? **German finmin suggested Greece could issue IOUs: Report** BERLIN: German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble suggested in discussions with other euro zone finance ministers that Greece could issue IOUs as a means of interim financing, German newspaper Handelsblatt cited participants as saying. Schaeuble suggested Athens could use IOUs to serve some of its domestic payment obligations, the newspaper said on Tuesday. It said IOUs had been a topic of discussion again at a Eurogroup meeting on Monday. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2015, 4:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/greek-default-seems-to-be-inevitable-whats-the-fallout/723811/466 "2015-07-14T16:42:24Z")
Not a very meaty article there. Why does discussing the use of IOUs imply pushing for Grexit? ---
**Author:** ![camille](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/22d042/32.png) [@camille](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/camille)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2015, 4:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/greek-default-seems-to-be-inevitable-whats-the-fallout/723811/467 "2015-07-14T16:46:38Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > Not a very meaty article there. Why does discussing the use of IOUs imply pushing for Grexit? [Dr. Schaeuble’s Master Plan](http://www.forbes.com/sites/francescoppola/2015/07/14/dr-schaeubles-master-plan/) From Deutsche Wirtschafts Nachrichten today (original in German, my translation with help from Google): ``` The humiliation of Greece at the summit was not an accident. It is part of an agenda that Wolfgang Schäuble has long pursued: he considers the EU in its current form non-functional. He is committed to establishing a close political union. This is only possible with selected countries. At the end will be seen who fits with Germany and who does not. Grexit is already planned. Other states will follow. The tablecloth is cut. Irrevocably. ``` ---
**Author:** ![Fuzzy\_wuzzy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/a8b319/32.png) [@Fuzzy\_wuzzy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fuzzy_wuzzy)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2015, 4:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/greek-default-seems-to-be-inevitable-whats-the-fallout/723811/468 "2015-07-14T16:48:44Z")
> [@JoseB](#): > > I have a feeling that the MPs will dutifully make Greece drop its trousers, bend over and let Germany, Finland and the rest take turns thoroughly reaming it. > > The alternative is a non-zero chance of ending up hanged from a lamppost when the country crashes hard. > > The choice is not pretty: either accept harsh terms and try to manage a semi -controlled landing (at the price of tears, hardships, imposed outside control and humiliation, but with a chance of eventually getting out of the mess relatively intact) or crash so hard that you won’t even see the bottom of the crater. I think that the Greek MPs understand that, generally speaking. I also suspect quite a number of Greek politicians prefer having foreign politicians and foreign bankers to blame for Greek hardship rather than the blame falling squarely upon themselves. It’s an age old ploy of the political class in _all_ countries to blame foreigners for domestic woes. ---
**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2015, 4:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/greek-default-seems-to-be-inevitable-whats-the-fallout/723811/469 "2015-07-14T16:56:47Z")
> [@camille](#): > > It is part of an agenda that Wolfgang Schäuble has long pursued: **he considers the EU in its current form non-functional**. He is committed to establishing a close political union. Is he wrong? ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2015, 4:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/greek-default-seems-to-be-inevitable-whats-the-fallout/723811/470 "2015-07-14T16:59:46Z")
> [@camille](#): > > [Dr. Schaeuble’s Master Plan](http://www.forbes.com/sites/francescoppola/2015/07/14/dr-schaeubles-master-plan/) > > From Deutsche Wirtschafts Nachrichten today (original in German, my translation with help from Google): > > ``` > The humiliation of Greece at the summit was not an accident. It is part of an agenda that Wolfgang Schäuble has long pursued: he considers the EU in its current form non-functional. He is committed to establishing a close political union. This is only possible with selected countries. At the end will be seen who fits with Germany and who does not. Grexit is already planned. Other states will follow. The tablecloth is cut. Irrevocably. > > ``` Well, ok that’s a theory. Still doesn’t explain what that has to do with IOUs. ---
**Author:** ![camille](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/22d042/32.png) [@camille](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/camille)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2015, 5:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/greek-default-seems-to-be-inevitable-whats-the-fallout/723811/471 "2015-07-14T17:04:45Z")
> [@Terr](#): > > Is he wrong? > [@CarnalK](#): > > Well, ok that’s a theory. Still doesn’t explain what that has to do with IOUs. Issuing IOUs would be the first step needed for GREXIT. Terr, Schaeuble may be right, but then Tsipras really screwed up. He should have listened to Varoufakis when he told them to take over the banks as a preemptive strike. ---
**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2015, 5:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/greek-default-seems-to-be-inevitable-whats-the-fallout/723811/472 "2015-07-14T17:07:48Z")
> [@camille](#): > > Terr, Schaeuble may be right, but then Tsipras really screwed up. Tsipras really screwed up. REALLY screwed up. In so many ways. ---
**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2015, 5:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/greek-default-seems-to-be-inevitable-whats-the-fallout/723811/473 "2015-07-14T17:13:50Z")
> [@Fuzzy\_wuzzy](#): > > I also suspect quite a number of Greek politicians prefer having foreign politicians and foreign bankers to blame for Greek hardship rather than the blame falling squarely upon themselves. It’s an age old ploy of the political class in _all_ countries to blame foreigners for domestic woes. I don’t think there is any doubt that the bill that are required will be passed in Greek Parliament on Wednesday. The pro-Euro faction in the Parliament is just below 50%, so all Tsipras needs is 20 or so votes from his own faction. It’s pretty clear that he will get a lot more. The question is, if the majority or even a very big minority of his party vote against him, how can he stay on as a leader of his party and a PM? ---
**Author:** ![camille](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/22d042/32.png) [@camille](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/camille)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2015, 5:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/greek-default-seems-to-be-inevitable-whats-the-fallout/723811/474 "2015-07-14T17:19:28Z")
> [@Terr](#): > > The question is, if the majority or even a very big minority of his party vote against him, how can he stay on as a leader of his party and a PM? Looks like another all nighter for Tsipras. Varoufakis is in Parliament meetings now as well. ---
**Author:** ![Hiker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/3be4f8/32.png) [@Hiker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hiker)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2015, 5:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/greek-default-seems-to-be-inevitable-whats-the-fallout/723811/475 "2015-07-14T17:23:44Z")
> [@camille](#): > > [Dr. Schaeuble’s Master Plan](http://www.forbes.com/sites/francescoppola/2015/07/14/dr-schaeubles-master-plan/) > > From Deutsche Wirtschafts Nachrichten today (original in German, my translation with help from Google): > > ``` > The humiliation of Greece at the summit was not an accident. It is part of an agenda that Wolfgang Schäuble has long pursued: he considers the EU in its current form non-functional. He is committed to establishing a close political union. This is only possible with selected countries. At the end will be seen who fits with Germany and who does not. Grexit is already planned. Other states will follow. The tablecloth is cut. Irrevocably. > > ``` You should not believe that a publication has any kind of insight into the German government’s “hidden agenda”, just because it bears a “Deutsch” in its name. I had never heard of the “Deutsche Wirtschafts Nachrichten” so I looked it up in the [German Wikipedia](https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Maier_%28Journalist%29#Deutsche_Wirtschafts_Nachrichten). (sorry no link in English). The gist is that the respectability of that publication is apparently debatable. ---
**Author:** ![camille](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/22d042/32.png) [@camille](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/camille)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2015, 5:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/greek-default-seems-to-be-inevitable-whats-the-fallout/723811/476 "2015-07-14T17:43:18Z")
> [@Hiker](#): > > You should not believe that a publication has any kind of insight into the German government’s “hidden agenda”, just because it bears a “Deutsch” in its name. I had never heard of the “Deutsche Wirtschafts Nachrichten” so I looked it up in the [German Wikipedia](https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Maier_%28Journalist%29#Deutsche_Wirtschafts_Nachrichten). (sorry no link in English). The gist is that the respectability of that publication is apparently debatable. That is not the basis of my belief. The respectability of the people taking it seriously, and the facts we already know, are enough for me to consider it viable. In any case, we are only speculating on a message board. ---
**Author:** ![up\_the\_junction](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/f1d935/32.png) [@up\_the\_junction](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/up_the_junction)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2015, 8:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/greek-default-seems-to-be-inevitable-whats-the-fallout/723811/477 "2015-07-14T20:30:14Z")
[IMF stuns Europe with call for massive Greek debt relief](http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11739985/IMF-stuns-Europe-with-call-for-massive-Greek-debt-relief.html) > [@](#): > > The International Monetary Fund has set off a political earthquake in Europe, warning that Greece may need a total moratorium on debt payments for 30 years and perhaps even long-term subsidies to claw its way out of depression. > > "The dramatic deterioration in debt sustainability points to the need for debt relief on a scale that would need to go well beyond what has been under consideration to date,” said the IMF in a confidential report. > > Greek public debt will spiral to 200pc of GDP over the next two years, compared to 177pc in an earlier report on debt sustainability issued just two weeks ago. > > The findings are explosive. The document amounts to a warning that the IMF will not take part in any EMU-led rescue package for Greece unless Germany and the EMU creditor powers finally agree to sweeping debt relief. > [@](#): > > Its conclusions validate what Greece’s Syriza government has been saying all along. The debt cannot be repaid. Any formula that fails to recognize this merely stores up an even bigger crisis down the road. We knew this already which is why the deal the Germans wanted didn’t make sense - everyone knew it could never work. Games within games of the IMF doing Syriza’s job after they _failed_ … ---
**Author:** ![usedtobe](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ec9cab/32.png) [@usedtobe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/usedtobe)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2015, 9:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/greek-default-seems-to-be-inevitable-whats-the-fallout/723811/478 "2015-07-14T21:03:58Z")
I am still amazed that the IMF even got involved - Europe is, nowadays, supposed to take care of itself - the ECB and EMS should be all that is required. My general impression of “IMF Loan” is to “developing” countries. Then again, somebody just downgraded Greece to “Emerging Market” status - the kind of place where I would not be surprised to see the IMF involved. But not to “Developed” countries. So Greece shut itself off from the bond market (when your bonds are bought for 50% of their alleged value, don’t expect to sell many). The Chinese over-payed for a 30 year lease of the Piraeus port, installed new cranes, built a rail line and quadrupled capacity. Tsipras promptly took it back, and is now selling it. So much for Chinese money. Tried Russia. I hear they are thinking of shipping some oil to them (price not mentioned) Even Indiegogo didn’t work. If the Germans had said "pay your bills in drachmas (instead of IOU), the meaning would be clearer - maybe you should start packing your bags now, just in case you need to go somewhere. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2015, 10:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/greek-default-seems-to-be-inevitable-whats-the-fallout/723811/479 "2015-07-14T22:07:40Z")
> [@up\_the\_junction](#): > > [IMF stuns Europe with call for massive Greek debt relief](http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11739985/IMF-stuns-Europe-with-call-for-massive-Greek-debt-relief.html) > > We knew this already which is why the deal the Germans wanted didn’t make sense - everyone knew it could never work. > > Games within games of the IMF doing Syriza’s job after they _failed_ … Yeah, dude, like the Europeans are going to listen to the US Treasury on any of this. 😛 ---
**Author:** ![Diceman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/22d042/32.png) [@Diceman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diceman)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2015, 10:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/greek-default-seems-to-be-inevitable-whats-the-fallout/723811/480 "2015-07-14T22:36:50Z")
> [@up\_the\_junction](#): > > [IMF stuns Europe with call for massive Greek debt relief](http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11739985/IMF-stuns-Europe-with-call-for-massive-Greek-debt-relief.html) > > We knew this already which is why the deal the Germans wanted didn’t make sense - everyone knew it could never work. > > Games within games of the IMF doing Syriza’s job after they _failed_ … Impressive. Somebody finally got tired of pretending the emperor had clothes. 🆒 [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/greek-default-seems-to-be-inevitable-whats-the-fallout/723811.md?page=23) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/greek-default-seems-to-be-inevitable-whats-the-fallout/723811.md?page=25)