Correct me if I’m wrong, but haircuts (whatever the percentage) were completely off the table right before the referendum. Why would they agree to them now?
Can you imagine how this is playing to the working class and poor in Spain and Portugal who have also had it in the neck for years now.
You can sense politicians recalibrating policy as we speak …
Because democracy has spoken, and it said ‘fuck off’.
The Germans will grind you into the ground but even they baulk at overthrowing European democracy. It’s still a recent thing.
Yes, that’s what a ‘haircut’ is. It would be a write down of the debt where the ‘creditor’ essentially eats it. There is precedence for it, though…even Germany received a similar write down in the 50’s, IIRC.
They might agree to it to keep Greece going and, more importantly, to keep the illusion (or reality) that the EU/EZ is solid and that membership is forever going. Also, there is always the potential that if Greece exits and goes down in flames that it might spread and have a domino effect on other high debtor nations. Heck, even the US could get dragged into this. And the uncertainty is already having a negative effect on world markets. So, there are valid reasons that a ‘haircut’ in some form would be considered, anyway.
What a load of horseshit. Good grief. 
Why do you even participate in these discussions if you are just going to spew this sort of nonsense??
Cool. I suspect the German democracy is going to speak, and tell Greeks to “fuck off”.
Yeah, that’s the other side of this that folks like Up seem to ignore…the Germans get a vote as well, and they aren’t too happy about any of this. Greece can’t simply vote themselves a get out of jail free card and everyone else has to just suck it up…it’s a two way street. Right now the Germans are playing hard ball and want reforms FIRST, and then talk about restructuring or maybe haircuts after they see real reform (real reform in German terms of course, which might be impossible for Greece). The Greeks, on the other hand, want restructuring and haircuts first, then more gradual and less stringent reforms (perhaps) down the line after they aren’t being stressed as much. That’s why I’m not sure there IS a political middle ground that both sides can accept here…it might just be too much for either side (or both) to concede to get there at this point and at this late stage. The Greek banks will collapse, and soon, if they don’t get access to the emergency funds. I’m sure the Greeks feel this, along with their referendum puts more pressure on the ECB and EZ to make concessions, and to a certain point it probably does…but it also is a ticking time bomb for the Greeks and is going to limit any sorts of lengthy talks (which have been going on for weeks leading up to this and got no where).
Honestly, were I in charge of things at the EZ, I would tell whoever comes from the Greek government: “your country said no. Good for you. You’re on your own. Good luck, and don’t let the door hit you in the ass in your way out.”
The Greek government lied through their collective teeth to get into the euro in 2002, and it was a hideous mistake to look to the other side and let them in. I am not even sure that it was a good idea letting Greece into the EEC in 1981 in the first place.
FWIW, I am Spanish and although my country has been in deep shit, we have managed to do something about it. At the very least we have learned to more or less pay our taxes.
E.T.A.: Varoufakis has resigned? Maybe he knows something and doesn’t want to be the man in charge of the economy when the shit hits the fan.
“Greece – What You are not Being Told by the Media”
http://www.nationofchange.org/2015/07/05/greece-what-you-are-not-being-told-by-the-media/
That it’s all a vast conspiracy? Now, why would the media not tell us that? I know—another conspiracy! And if there are two conspiracies, there must be a third. Send $5 to Box 12345 and you’ll learn what it is. You’ll be shocked, but knowing the answer is key to your personal wealth and safety.
Well, since you couldn’t be bothered to do any more than a drive by link, my summary of that article is: horseshit. Just another loopy left wing CT about evil banks and ‘oligarchs and international corporations can profit from the ensuing chaos and misery’. Thanks for the link though…it was amusing.
Hamlet Act 1, scene 3, 75–77
I remember when Greece joined the Euro, there was a lot of shaking of heads at the time saying that this was not going to end well.
Anyone who has spent any time in Greece knows that giving the government and the people an extremely generous line of credit was asking for trouble.
I believe it was more of a political project, presumably to stabilise that part of Europe.
That being the case, it might be worthwhile for rest of the Eurozone to let Greece leave the Euro and watch the drama of the drachma unfold.
It would be a sharp lesson to all the other countries that are have problems with spendthrift governments that buy favours and tax-shy businesses and citizens.
On the other hand, what did the Greeks spend the money on? Quite a lot of it went on the defence budget. Greece has always been paranoid about its neighbour Turkey and the the Greek defence budget was the highest in Europe. Who sold them the equipment? Germany, UK, France, USA. Expect to see the Greeks being very friendly toward Russia as negotiating gambit. They may play the Putin card.
There is lot going on in the background of this poker game.
Serious question: Can the Bank of Greece essentially counterfeit the euro? It has the printing capacity, right?
It can. France can also nuke Greece. It has the A-bomb, right?
Also a serious question - what would they gain by it?
Regards,
Shodan
To avoid switching back to a drachma if formally expelled from the eurozone.
This was answered up thread. They are already printing Euros (with a special code in the serial number of the bills designating they were printed in Greece). But I don’t think they would print counterfeit bills, nor do I think it would help even if they could or did.
I think the Greeks would have almost as much trouble getting other countries to accept counterfeit euros as they would with inflated drachmas. No doubt the tourist trade in Greece would infinitely prefer to be paid in euros or dollars, but that is different from some pensioner or government employee being paid in counterfeits. And it wouldn’t help any kind of EFT dealings.
Plus the other European nations would notice and get peeved. Not to mention that the tourists are going to figure out that any notes they get in change in Greece are likely to be bogus, and that will affect Greece’s only worthwhile industry, which is tourism.
Regards,
Shodan
Yes, they can. The 10 Euro bills for the whole eurozone have always been printed in Greece as well as in a number of other countries [1]. There seems to be a general consensus that no Greek government will even remotely consider printing Euros at will, although I do recall that a Greek member of parliament, a backbencher for the Syriza party, threatened to do just that a few months ago (can’t find the cite right now).
[1] Griechische Nationalbank: Mit der Lizenz zum Geld drucken