# Greenpeace Says Electric cars a Bust-Do You Agree? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [September 28, 2012, 4:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/greenpeace-says-electric-cars-a-bust-do-you-agree/636152 "2012-09-28T16:52:27Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 13
**Author:** ![Procrustus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/procrustus/32/2994_2.png) [@Procrustus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Procrustus)\ **Post date:** [October 15, 2012, 10:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/greenpeace-says-electric-cars-a-bust-do-you-agree/636152/241 "2012-10-15T22:05:24Z")
Sure, a Volt cost more than some other cars. The same could be said for a Mercedes or a Lexus. Not everyone buys the most cost-effective option available. The Volt isn’t marketed as cheap to own or operate. It’s marketed as a great car that uses less gas. From their website: > [@](#): > > It’s no surprise that the Volt, named 2011 North American Car of the Year and 2012 European Car of the Year, has a ton of great features. From the latest technology to amazing mileage and exhilarating performance, there’s a lot to love about this car. The Prius is a very fine car, and at a nice price point. The Volt is a finer car, and it costs a bit more. There really is no mystery here. ---
**Author:** ![Mgalindo13](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/ea5d25/32.png) [@Mgalindo13](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mgalindo13)\ **Post date:** [October 15, 2012, 11:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/greenpeace-says-electric-cars-a-bust-do-you-agree/636152/242 "2012-10-15T23:38:32Z")
> [@XT](#): > > My understanding is that not everyone qualifies for those rebates, and also the rebate at least wrt the state is highly variable. They are, but I used the lower end of the numbers to estimate. As noted, CO and IL have higher rebates. (CO is actually $6k , I was incorrect previously) Even if you assume no state rebate, there is at least the federal tax credit that everyone is eligible to receive. There’s also other financial perks, for example, in the state of Nevada you are exempt from emissions inspections and public parking meters. Other states are considering things like sales tax exemptions or offering HOV lane access. > [@XT](#): > > I gave you my own gasoline costs but you chose to go with a higher as it made your case look better. I used national averages to estimate, both for the cost of gasoline and for annual mileage. If I used the price of gasoline local to me (in Los Angeles) and the miles I drive (18k-20k per year) the results would have been even more “skewed.” I tried to use averages whenever possible. > [@XT](#): > > You are assuming zero costs for the Volt. Not zero. I also used 250 mpg for the Volt, which from reading some of the Volt forums seems to be a low estimate. > [@XT](#): > > Electricity is not free and has a non-zero cost that you didn’t account for. You are right, I did not factor in the electricity costs. I had a hard time reconciling this one. Most public chargers are currently free and most utilities offer significant savings for EV owners. SCE, for [example](http://www.sce.com/info/electric-car/residential/residential.htm?from=electricvehicle), offers a lower rate to EV owners which offsets the overall electric costs. Considering I didn’t include brake pad replacement, oil changes or transmission maintenance and only a 5% annual increase in gasoline prices - I think it’s pretty much a wash, but I will concede that it was not a cost I factored in. > [@XT](#): > > I’d say interest is a wash, but your actual car payment is going to be higher on a $30k loan than on a $20k loan even if you pay zero interest…no? Your payment is going to be higher, but my point was that the actual cost of the vehicle over time is lower. > [@XT](#): > > It’s an unknown, but you assumed the more optimistic view in your figures. That’s fine, but now you seem a bit hurt that I’m pointing that out for some reason. I’m not hurt, I’m just making my case. I think for average drivers, they will see cost savings within 4-5 years and I think the data I’ve provided shows that. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2012, 12:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/greenpeace-says-electric-cars-a-bust-do-you-agree/636152/243 "2012-10-16T00:59:37Z")
> [@Mgalindo13](#): > > … there is at least the federal tax credit that everyone is eligible to receive. … Only if those who owe at least that much in Federal tax. Not payroll tax, not state tax. And at least 47% of Americans (somewhat infamously this election cycle) do not owe _any_ Federal tax. [Somewhat fewer](http://consumerguideauto.howstuffworks.com/a-7500-federal-tax-credit-not-for-joe-sixpack.htm) would get the full $7500: > [@CosumerGuide](#): > > Let’s look at the case of Joe and Jane Sixpack, the average American couple, who want to buy a new Chevy Volt. The Sixpacks have two fine children with average needs. Like the vast majority of married couples, Joe and Jane file a joint tax return. According to U.S. government statistics, the estimated U.S. median income for four-person families from October 2010 through September 2011 was $74,985. So we’ll say that Joe and Jane’s adjusted gross income (AGI) is exactly that. > > To go from AGI to taxable income, you need to subtract itemized deductions and exemptions. The IRS stated in 2011 that the average amount of itemized deductions for people making between $50,000 and $100,000 was $20,350, the same as Joe and Jane’s. The couple’s four exemptions (themselves and their two kids, at $3,700 apiece) amount to $14,800. Thus, $74,985 (AGI) – $20,350 (itemized deductions) – $14,800 (exemptions) = $39,835 (taxable income). > > The IRS tax table states that the “Married Filing Jointly” tax on $39,850 is $5,124. Thus, the Sixpacks qualify for a $5,124 tax credit on their new Volt–not $7,500. The good news is that this is real money. If the amount of federal income tax the Sixpacks owed on April 15 was otherwise $0, the IRS would send them a refund check of $5,124. If they otherwise owed $1,000, they’d get a check for $4,124. If they otherwise were due a $1,000 refund, they’d get $6,124. > > To get the full $7,500 tax credit, joint filers with four exemptions ($14,800) and $20,350 in itemized deductions would need an adjusted gross income of $90,800. In most states, those who earn that kind of money are in the upper middle class. … > > … Unless you make a hefty income, the $7,500 credit isn’t really $7,500. > [@](#): > > I used national averages to estimate, both for the cost of gasoline and for annual mileage. And to be fair using current averages very likely significantly _underestimates_ the average cost of gas during the lifetime of the vehicle. > [@](#): > > You are right, I did not factor in the electricity costs. I had a hard time reconciling this one. > > Most public chargers are currently free and most utilities offer significant savings for EV owners. SCE, for [example](http://www.sce.com/info/electric-car/residential/residential.htm?from=electricvehicle), offers a lower rate to EV owners which offsets the overall electric costs. Few will charge their Volt or Leaf or C-Max Energi at a public charger. We’ll charge at home overnight and maybe have realtime pricing that discounts electricity used during “trough” times. Most analyses use something like 10 to 13 cents per kW. When [Snopes](http://www.snopes.com/politics/business/chevyvolt.asp) did their analysis they concluded that it costs about $0.07/mile to travel on electricity in the Volt. 2/3s of real world miles are traveled on grid-derived power. For your 15K example that means about $700/yr of electricity costs. 5000 miles on gas at 37 mpg at just $4/g, $540 (maybe more given it needs premium). Total doing it this way, at least $1240. Again, official verdict, [fueleconomy.gov](http://fueleconomy.gov), $1050 annual fuel costs … but either way not $250. ---
**Author:** ![Musicat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/musicat/32/20189_2.png) [@Musicat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Musicat)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2012, 12:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/greenpeace-says-electric-cars-a-bust-do-you-agree/636152/244 "2012-10-16T12:34:36Z")
> [@Musicat](#): > > Anybody have any figures on the cost to replace all the batteries on a Volt, and how many miles or years one set will last? You can’t ignore this expense over the life of the car. Has this question been answered in this thread? Maybe I missed it. If the cost for all new batteries is substantial, it should be worked into the per mile figures, unlike an all-gas powered car, which has no such expense. ---
**Author:** ![Keweenaw](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/da6949/32.png) [@Keweenaw](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Keweenaw)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2012, 2:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/greenpeace-says-electric-cars-a-bust-do-you-agree/636152/245 "2012-10-16T14:37:39Z")
> [@Magiver](#): > > are you aware the sales of the Volt are below the extremely low sales projections of the car? > > There’s a battery technology that will allow a phone to recharge in 2 minutes. Do you think it will sell well when it hits the market? Billions of people already recharge their phone at night. It’s a given. Sales projections for 2012 were 35,000 to 40,000. Thats not a low projection. It looks like they might actually sell more like 20,000. ---
**Author:** ![Johanna](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johanna/32/8318_2.png) [@Johanna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johanna)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2012, 4:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/greenpeace-says-electric-cars-a-bust-do-you-agree/636152/246 "2012-10-16T16:24:31Z")
> [@CJJ](#): > > the plug-in hybrid EV, which runs on battery for the first ~80 miles then switches to gas. Great for a daily commute (which could be all-battery with a plug-in charge overnight in your garage, when electical rates are lower in some parts of the country), and useable for a longer drive with the gas-engine kicking in after an hour. You drive at 80 mile per hour? Where are you, on the Autobahn? ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2012, 6:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/greenpeace-says-electric-cars-a-bust-do-you-agree/636152/247 "2012-10-16T18:26:50Z")
> [@Musicat](#): > > Has this question been answered in this thread? Maybe I missed it. > > If the cost for all new batteries is substantial, it should be worked into the per mile figures, unlike an all-gas powered car, which has no such expense. Yes, to the degee it can be answered as no one really knows. Current costs run about $500 -600/kWh and most experts _expect_ it to drop to $250/kWh over several years. That’s current cost of about 14K for the Leaf’s battery, 8K for the Volt, 4K for a C-Max Energi. Half those numbers likely by the time they might need to be replaced. Many predict very rapid drops due to overcapacity in the industry. All guesses. Expectation is that batteries will last 8 to 10 years but again no one knows. Nissan is having some issues with faster than expected degradation in very hot environments like Arizona but they have no real battery cooling system built in. The Ford Focus BEV OTOH is liquid cooled and should last well as a result, maybe much longer. Tesla’s sytem likely allows for individual cells to be replaced and the system “rebalanced” along the way. If it dies within warranty (8 years 100K) then some makers will replace the whole thing; Nissan prorates by age (and has stated that the Arizona battery wear is not a defect). ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2012, 7:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/greenpeace-says-electric-cars-a-bust-do-you-agree/636152/248 "2012-10-16T19:14:14Z")
An example of how all [over the place](http://green.autoblog.com/2012/07/13/plug-in-vehicle-battery-costs-of-250-per-kwh-coming-with-drama/) battery price estimates and predictions are. ---
**Author:** ![Musicat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/musicat/32/20189_2.png) [@Musicat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Musicat)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2012, 7:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/greenpeace-says-electric-cars-a-bust-do-you-agree/636152/249 "2012-10-16T19:53:17Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > An example of how all [over the place](http://green.autoblog.com/2012/07/13/plug-in-vehicle-battery-costs-of-250-per-kwh-coming-with-drama/) battery price estimates and predictions are. You said it. I have been researching battery replacement prices for the Leaf and Volt, and have run across estimates from $500 (used) to $18,000 (new). There’s uncertainty as to how long they will last (5-12 years) and how many miles (100K to 250K), and how rapidly they will lose capacity. About the only thing that won’t change much over 10 years is the price of a KWH from the grid, but that’s a small part of ownership cost. And another consideration – what if battery technology improves considerably, but it’s a different kind of battery, and the existing autos can’t handle it (charge rates, space, weight, etc.) The old autos will depreciate faster than expected. ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2012, 9:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/greenpeace-says-electric-cars-a-bust-do-you-agree/636152/250 "2012-10-16T21:02:39Z")
> [@Keweenaw](#): > > Sales projections for 2012 were 35,000 to 40,000. Thats not a low projection. It looks like they might actually sell more like 20,000. they were originally [60,000](http://www.alternet.org/environment/why-chevrolets-big-month-volt-means-less-theyd-you-think), and that figure wouldn’t begin to financially support the manufacture of the car. They were revised down because of poor sales and they had to temporarily shut down production because those were optimistic. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2012, 9:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/greenpeace-says-electric-cars-a-bust-do-you-agree/636152/251 "2012-10-16T21:15:15Z")
> [@Johanna](#): > > You drive at 80 mile per hour? Where are you, on the Autobahn? Texas has [80 mph limits](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Speed_limits_in_the_United_States#80_and_85_mph_limits) in some areas, and soon an 85 mph area. 75 limits are very common, and 5 over isn’t exactly speed demon driving. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2012, 9:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/greenpeace-says-electric-cars-a-bust-do-you-agree/636152/252 "2012-10-16T21:34:43Z")
Most of New Mexico’s (and Arizona’s) interstates are also 75 mph, and in general I drive them about about 80-83 (just under the 10 miles over limit, since most cops ignore you if you aren’t going over 10 miles over the limit in my experience). ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2012, 9:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/greenpeace-says-electric-cars-a-bust-do-you-agree/636152/253 "2012-10-16T21:37:23Z")
In Canada, many of our major highways are 110 km/h, which is close to 70 mph. But in my experience, the flow of traffic on those highways is closer to 130 km/h, which is about 80 mph. ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2012, 9:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/greenpeace-says-electric-cars-a-bust-do-you-agree/636152/254 "2012-10-16T21:44:02Z")
> [@Magiver](#): > > they were originally [60,000](http://www.alternet.org/environment/why-chevrolets-big-month-volt-means-less-theyd-you-think), and that figure wouldn’t begin to financially support the manufacture of the car. They were revised down because of poor sales and they had to temporarily shut down production because those were optimistic. In addition, a large number of those sales went to government fleets and at least one very large corporation: General Electric. GE has ordered [12,000 Volts](http://gas2.org/2012/02/20/ge-forcing-employees-into-chevy-volts/). GE is closely connected to the government, being one of the largest corporate recipients of stimulus money, and having its head, Jeff Immelt, sitting on Obama’s ‘Jobs Council’. In addition, GE stands to profit greatly from ‘green’ legislation as it has invested heavily in wind power and factory control hardware and software that will see a big sales boost if factories are forced to renovate their processes. GE is also making a play into the electric car charging station market, so they have a big incentive to see the Volt succeed. I’d like to know how much of that 12,000 unit order of Volts is baked into these sales numbers. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2012, 12:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/greenpeace-says-electric-cars-a-bust-do-you-agree/636152/255 "2012-10-17T00:41:14Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > In addition, a large number of those sales went to government fleets and at least one very large corporation: General Electric. > > GE has ordered [12,000 Volts](http://gas2.org/2012/02/20/ge-forcing-employees-into-chevy-volts/). GE is closely connected to the government, being one of the largest corporate recipients of stimulus money, and having its head, Jeff Immelt, sitting on Obama’s ‘Jobs Council’. In addition, GE stands to profit greatly from ‘green’ legislation as it has invested heavily in wind power and factory control hardware and software that will see a big sales boost if factories are forced to renovate their processes. GE is also making a play into the electric car charging station market, so they have a big incentive to see the Volt succeed. > > I’d like to know how much of that 12,000 unit order of Volts is baked into these sales numbers. The 12,000 number is part of the total 25,000 EV number they have committed to [_over a 5 year period_](http://www.electricityforum.com/news/nov10/GEtobuy25000EVsovernextfiveyears.html), not all expected to be purchased in this year. This move to focus on the Volt, rather than spread some to the Leaf as initially stated, may have been a reaction to (punishment for) Nissan’s trying to blame a GE charger for a malfunction that turns out to have been [the fault of Nissan’s software](http://gm-volt.com/forum/showthread.php?15471-Nissan-Admits-Leaf-at-Fault-in-G.E.-Home-Charger-Malfunction). Yes, GE has a strong incentive to get BEVs mainstreamed as they have heavily invested in being a supplier to the charging infrastructure for these vehicles. Hence their investment in A123 (which just went belly up with Johnson Controls buying their automotive assets) and so on. Makes good business sense to be an early adopter. The “large number to government fleets” claim has[already been debunked](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=15578183&postcount=201). As already pointed out > [@](#): > > the total order from the Pentagon will be 1500 vehicles over an extended period of time. So far it’s been 150. As your link admits, total government sales have been less than 5% of Volt sales and most of those are state and local governments, they are a few hundred cars bought across the country between local, state and Federal sources. So, uh, no, the 16K plus of sales are not “forced purchases.” ---
**Author:** ![Musicat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/musicat/32/20189_2.png) [@Musicat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Musicat)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2012, 12:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/greenpeace-says-electric-cars-a-bust-do-you-agree/636152/256 "2012-10-17T00:46:56Z")
This just in. [Battery Maker Files for Bankrupcy](http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390443854204578060433271656440.html) > [@](#): > > A123 built a plant in Michigan to produce batteries for electric vehicles, on expectations that the market for EVs would take off and the cost of batteries would fall. But neither has happened. The company encountered difficulties scaling up certain batteries because of technical issues, resulting in production problems. A123 was also hurt when its largest customer, Fisker Automotive Inc., had difficulties producing its cars and reduced orders. A quality glitch in A123 battery packs forced a costly recall earlier this year, too, and by spring the company was scrambling to raise new financing and found its way to [Chinese auto-parts maker] Wanxiang [group]. And: > [@](#): > > A123 Systems isn’t shutting down nor is it selling its business to a Chinese competitor. Instead, the Waltham, Mass., company is selling its auto business to Milwaukee-based Johnson Controls in a deal valued at $125 million that is subject to higher offers at a bankruptcy auction. ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2012, 12:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/greenpeace-says-electric-cars-a-bust-do-you-agree/636152/257 "2012-10-17T00:49:52Z")
25,000/5 years = 5,000 per year. 5,000 / 20,000 sales is 25% of sales. That’s if GM actually sells 20,000 this year. ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2012, 1:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/greenpeace-says-electric-cars-a-bust-do-you-agree/636152/258 "2012-10-17T01:03:23Z")
> [@Musicat](#): > > This just in. [Battery Maker Files for Bankrupcy](http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390443854204578060433271656440.html)And: Well I’m confident the rest of the battery makers will pick up the slack and invest more money in research while lowering their current prices. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2012, 1:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/greenpeace-says-electric-cars-a-bust-do-you-agree/636152/259 "2012-10-17T01:19:58Z")
12,000 committed to GM, 2.4K/year on average yearly. GM’s _complete fleet_ is 30K big. Yes that’s a big customer but the Volt \*is \*a good car for their needs. ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2012, 1:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/greenpeace-says-electric-cars-a-bust-do-you-agree/636152/260 "2012-10-17T01:33:14Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > 12,000 committed to GM, 2.4K/year on average yearly. GM’s _complete fleet_ is 30K big. Yes that’s a big customer but the Volt \*is \*a good car for their needs. Sorry, that’s 12% by GE alone. my mistake. what would those needs be and how many years do you think a company keeps a fleet car? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/greenpeace-says-electric-cars-a-bust-do-you-agree/636152.md?page=12) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/greenpeace-says-electric-cars-a-bust-do-you-agree/636152.md?page=14)