Greenpeace Says Electric cars a Bust-Do You Agree?

I don’t think evs are a bust. They are only starting to emerge on the market, and depending on the stability of the future oil market, are poised to make big gains in relative economy. I think hybrids will probably be the most popular spin on the technology for awhile though.

Evs can still benefit from economies of scale. And there are still breakthroughs to be had. I don’t know if the lithium-air battery is really going to be viable anytime soon, but I’m starting to see some stuff about magnesium batteries, which apparently can deliver 3 times the energy density of lithium-ion. Does anyone know more about the prospects of magnesium batteries?

To start:

  • 700 watts an hour isn’t a real unit (in this context). You meant 700 watts.
  • Basically all solar systems have either battery backup or grid tie, and hence peak power is irrelevant, only average.
  • “Several” is different from “a couple.”

The Tesla Model S uses about 300 W-h per mile. That is 13.5 kW-h for our 45 mile day. Assuming 10 hours of good sunlight, that comes to a 1.35 kW solar system. With your 175 watt/m^2 panels, that’s just under 8 square meters, which I suppose might be stretching it for “several” but nevertheless isn’t too bad. A sunny location would do better, as would higher quality panels (though they get much more expensive, fast).

Anyway, a typical roof has well over 100 square meters, so even doubling the estimate would not be a problem.

Has any one figured out the costs of ownership over the 200,000 miles or so you should be able to get out of a vehicle nowdays? (I got 245,000 on my Dodge Colt before it was totaled in an accident, 210,000 on my Jeep Cherokee before I sold it to someone with a welder as there were holes in the floor and rockers, I’m at 140,000 now on my Jeep Grand Cherokee). Granted electricity costs less than gasoline and there are fewer moving parts, but aren’t battery packs only good for about 100,000 miles?

Dozens of research teams around the world are working on this exact plan, the most notable one at Utah State. It is one of the most interesting of concepts, negating the need for substantial battery technology improvement, but won’t be useful as a universal system until we solve the bigger problem of abundant cheap electric power.

In general, transportation technology has lagged behind other fields, mostly because the infrastructure changes are the most gigantic to change. But I’m convinced that it will most definitely happen because the current system is awkward and more inefficient every day.

It’s a very hard thing to do without making very speculative assumptions. How long will a pack last? Replaced within warranty? 10 years? 12? How much will the cost of batteries come down over that time? How much does gas go up? Many who try forget to include the ICE maintenance costs.

And once you start looking at plug-in hybrids (include the Volt’s “extended range EV” with these) class, it then varies much based on mileage within and outside of the all electric range.

The advantage however of your 200K approach is that we can minimize the resale value unknown and just approximate both to near zero for ease of calculation.

So given those acknowledged difficulties let’s give it a try.

Use the Leaf’s 24 kWh battery. Assume 9 years lifespan (just outside the warranty). Assume 12K miles per year so 200K so we are talking 16 to 17 years. You are making it within your second battery’s lifespan. Assume $250/kWh by the time you need it so that’s $6K in battery cost. Assume $0.04 per mile electricity cost so that is $8K electricity. Hold on maintenance costs for now. Call these the fueling costs total of $14K.

Nissan Sentra 34 mpg combined officially. Guess gas an average of $5/gal over that time course. About $30K fuel cost. $16K saved fuel cost. Comparably equipped Sentra about $10K less than than the Leaf (after tax credit - and I was offered one on the lot that was pre-owned with 86 miles on it for only $5K more, no tax credit would apply).

No oil changes, no ICE maintenance, low likelihood of replacing the brakes … how much does that run?

A couple square meters looks better every year- double the efficiency and you halve the needed cell area. Check out NREL’s chart on best research cell efficiencies. The efficiency of these things, as you surely already know, has increased dramatically over the past few decades. The economy of scale will work on some of the high-end cells the same as it works all over the market. It will just take some more time is all.

real world fuel costs would be more like $4/gallon so the net savings in fuel would be $9000 for a car that costs $10,000 more. You also have to add in rental costs for travel beyond 73 miles which would be substantial for people with a life. Reality would call for another car which for a family with kids is probably taken care of but for single person is not.

All of this is based on a range of 73 miles per charge which excludes heavy city driving. People who live in places like NYC don’t really need a car for around town so they would gravitate toward a car that can travel out of town. People in the Midwest don’t get that many days where air conditioning or heating isn’t used so the 73 mile average range is suspect IMO. I don’t see enough 100 mph days without cooling/heating to make that average work.

So we’re back to battery charge time, cost, and utility issues. Both pure electric and extended electric vehicles are waiting on a fast charge battery to make them more useful to consumers.

So you’ve gone from 8 square meters to 100. You just ramped up the charging requirements to the whole roof which means you’re spending $25,000 of someone’s money to charge a car. If solar cells last 25 years and cars last 12 you’ve just added another $12,000 to the cost of the car.

Well first of all, solar power keeps getting cheaper. For two, I’m not necessarily thinking of the roof of your house, but more a combination of on the surface of the vehicle itself and also as part of a charging system like the gas-station replacement discussed above. Consider, from here:

A wider array of solar panels charges large, public (or privately owned and operated) batteries. Because it is electricity, customers don’t necessarily have to drive right up to the thing like a gas station- it could be accessed for blocks around.

I don’t know. It seems like there is incremental progress made toward the goal all the time, but the whole project looks kinda problematic to me too.

your 100 sq meter house is going to cost $18 to $20K Plus batteries which you’ll need in order to charge the car at night.

As was discussed earlier, any solar panel on a car is a waste of money. A solar charging gas station is an expensive proposition so you might as well suggest a small modular reactor. SMR’s might turn out to be the industrial game changing version of the Ipad.

I think the only problematic thing is time. What you suggest is GOING to happen at some point but it’s not practical today. Maybe we should just donate all our aircraft carriers to China and let them babysit the world’s energy supply. We’ll sit in the UN and call them everything but God’s children while we divert the savings into battery and solar technology.

What I would like to be able to do is a cost-benefit analysis of money spent on research versus money spent on trying to finance private spending habits. Not sure how to do that other than 20/20 hindsight.

Personally, I would rather roll the dice and put all of the money on research but I have no way of knowing if that is the most efficient path. Start a Manhattan project under the guise that energy is THE most important security issue and just get it done.

It’s a little more than a ‘re-worked Prius’. It’s a mostly-series hybrid, while the Prius is a parallel hybrid. The requirements for each are quite different.

And yet people still buy and love Ferraris. Look, if all we cared about in our vehicles was great fuel economy at the cheapest price, we’d all be driving Toyota Echos. The fact is, people look for a lot more in a car, and not just in its specifications. Cars are a lifestyle statement. SUVs killed the minivan, despite the minivan being a generally superior people-carrier, because people don’t want to drive minivans. They’re not cool.

So the Volt is a fine niche car. For people who want to make a statement about the environment while giving up very little in range and creature comforts, it’s pretty nice. Overpriced? Sure. But then so is a Mercedes compared to a Ford equivalent.

I remember a Harvard Lampoon parody of a Ford Granada ad. Back in the day, Ford was trying to sell the Granada as being feature-for-feature competitive with a Mercedes. They had ads with comparison charts of the Mercedes’ and Granada’s horsepower, interior features, etc. The Harvard Lampoon had a fake ad that went something like this:

And the tagline:

The point being that a car is a lot more than a summary of its specifications page.

On this we agree. Tax rebates for a specific technology are a really bad idea, because it puts government in the business of picking winning and losing technologies and they’re no damned good at it. For example, if hydrogen fuel cells had been just a little bit farther along in the Bush years, you might have had a fuel cell tax credit, and that might have suppressed research into hybrid technology. And hybrid tax credits may have suppressed research into into fuel-saving technologies.

Tax credits for high mileage make some sense in that they help correct for the externalities created by CO2 emissions. But if that’s what you really care about, a better way to do it is to offer a sliding tax credit for ANY car based on its CO2 output. Don’t even use MPG as a standard - a car that gets the same MPG on natural gas emits about half the carbon. The goal of a tax credit, if you’re going to have one at all (and that’s debatable), is to be as technology-agnostic as possible, and to precisely target the thing you’re trying to reduce.

Early adopters are exactly the people who don’t care as much about cost. The first Apple Macintosh cost $3499, and it didn’t even have a hard drive. It had a 512 x 384 monochrome display. The first ‘laptops’ were monstrosities in a suitcase with tiny CRT displays and huge floppy drives. And they cost thousands of dollars. And yet, people still bought them. Hell, I bought a TRS-80 Model I computer for $1199, and it didn’t even have a floppy drive - just a cassette tape unit. It was utterly useless for just about any real practical thing you might try to do with it. But early adopters bought them.

And so it is with the Volt. The people who care more about having the latest technology, or getting good gas mileage in a ‘cool’ way than they do about money will buy Volts. Apparently, there aren’t too many of these people, but they’re out there. Whether there are enough of them to justify making a car like this is the real question.

You also have to remember that auto makers make ‘loss leader’ cars all the time, so it’s not fair to single out the Volt as being expensive when looking just at its sales and R&D cost. For one thing, that R&D may trickle into other GM vehicles. For another, GM may be trying to shed a ‘gas guzzler’ image, and the Volt helps that along. In the same way, car companies that want to move ‘upscale’ will sometimes produce limited-production luxury cars that don’t turn a profit on their own merits, but which help change the image of the company.

For example, GM already did this with the EV-1 - in strict accounting terms, it lost the company a bundle of money. But it was never intended to be a profit center. It was intended to build the company’s bona fides as a technology company, to help build company knowledge of electrics, and to test the marketplace to see if people would accept low range vehicles and electric vehicles in general.

If there were no tax rebates, and if GM wasn’t in bed with the government, then we could look at the Volt in this light a little more fairly. But since the decision-making around the Volt has been heavily distorted by the bailout and tax credits, we can’t tell if it would have made it to market anyway.

Perhaps. But the Volt was already well along in development before the bailout, and it’s a harder decision to say whether you should abandon all that R&D already invested.

You’re not summarizing my point - you’re distorting it. There was no need for a summary, since I think I stated my point fine. But since you put that out there, let me give you the real summary: Bang for the buck isn’t everything, or no one would buy Mustangs, either. And Ferraris wouldn’t exist. In fact, people have complex reasons for buying cars - some practical, some psychological, some political, some to fit in with the crowd, or to stand out from it. Sometimes just for the love of the shape of the thing. That’s why there are cars at every price point that do roughly the same thing.

The Volt is attractive to a certain kind of buyer. No, it’s not the best ‘bang for the buck’, but then no new car is - if you want the best bang for the buck, buy an older used car. If you want the best fuel mileage, buy a scooter. Since not everyone does this, it’s clear that ‘bang for the buck’ isn’t the only factor.

In the same sense that flying a rocket to Mars is not a difficult engineering problem - it’s just a gravity issue. Right?

Duh. And if horses were wishes, we’d all be eating steak. Engineering is an exercise in compromise management. Battery technology is what it is. It’s a difficult engineering problem all on its own. But given the batteries that exist, the Volt is a pretty awesome attempt to use them in conjunction with a gas generator to provide practical, efficient transportation.

That doesn’t mean it’s a market success, or even that it should be. The Concorde was a fantastic engineering achievement, but an utter failure as a practical aircraft. It lost huge gobs of money for the governments that tried to force the market through strategic ‘investments’ in technology. It may even have done damage to industry R&D as a whole by pushing companies into trying to come up with their own supersonic planes, when later we discovered that the efficiencies of fast subsonic flight are just overwhelming.

How many dollars that could have been spent on earlier subsonic R&D like high-bypass turbos and such got diverted and blown due to government interference in the market? Who knows? But whether or not the government should have been in the business of ‘investing’ in R&D has nothing to do with whether or not the designers of the Concorde came up with an amazing machine given the constraints they had. You can admire it as an engineering achievement while recognizing it was an utter failure as a government venture into the aviation marketplace.

I’ll stop you right there.

Currently in my region gas is over that. Sure it may drop back down every so often but you really believe that planning on $4/gallon for the next 18 years is a realistic assumption? Honestly I felt that stating averaging $5 for that period of time was being very optimistic about gas prices. For the last 8 years gas prices have been first and foremost extremely volatile but have on average gone up about $0.30 a year. Even if just assume that continued rise, and no peak oil period of more rapid rise, we’d be at $5 within just another 3 to 4 years tops and by 16 years out at close to $9/gallon. And if peak oil? I wouldn’t hazard a guess.

Issues of who this car would be functional for given the current infrastructure are immaterial to answering the question asked. Yes, I assumed most who take yearly road trips would have another family car to do that with or they would not be getting this car. So adding that in to answer the question about “the costs of ownership over the 200,000 miles or so you should be able to get out of a vehicle nowdays” seems unrealistic. For someone whose needs are met by either car the cost of ownership of 200,000 miles is likely minimally $8 to 9K less, using admittedly some best guess assumptions that some could argue are too conservative and some too liberal. Most consumers are not looking at lifetime vehicle payback though and won’t make the purchase until payback is within 3 years. My being happy with a 5 year payback is unusual I think. And I also most will prefer to have the lack of utility compromise that a PHEV or EREV offers even at the same cost.

But that was not the question being addressed.

I strongly disagree. It differs by the mix of connections between motors and the gears within the transmission. I’ve gone into great detail on this before. All Toyota has to do is add more batteries and the dual clutch transmissions on the market today are probably more of a technical achievement than the Volt’s transmission.

And people also buy the Mustang. That doesn’t change the argument I made (and you ignored) regarding how FEW people buy Ferraris versus how many people buy Mustangs. The Mustang is a hands down winner in bang for the buck.

Sales of the Volt have been extremely low. And the low sales numbers are artificially higher than demand because of government pity purchases. So it’s not a “fine” niche car. It’s a poorly selling niche car waiting for a battery people can love.

Well nobody was fooled by that ad.

On this we can agree.

Well since the CEO was literally installed by the government and the car was a guaranteed money loser for years to come I would suggest a connection.

The Mustang is cheaper than a turbocharged Mazda Speed 3 and its faster and gets better fuel economy. Reverse that and you would see Speed 3’s everywhere.

I don’t see where it’s clear at all. Clearly cars that suite more people sell more.

:dubious: No, it’s an efficient rocket thing.

And since battery technology is what it is, the car isn’t selling. I made that prediction at the introduction of the car.

the price of fuel is artificially set. Not artificially set high… artificially set. It can be lowered just as easily as raised if competition arises.

If what you want is for people to use less gasoline, you’re missing the easiest and most obvious way to reduce demand of gasoline; raise gasoline taxes.

By doing that, you’ll encourage the other stuff.

I’ll leave your theories about how gas prices are set for another thread. I’ll leave it that your assumption that prices will stabilize for the long term where they are now seems a bit unrealistic to me, but feel free to go with it.

Personally I don’t especially care if the Volt is earth shattering technology or not. It allows drivers to use a lot less gas every year, especially those who mostly drive daily commutes of 35 miles or less. Those people will hardly use any gas whatsoever. So far Toyota’s Prius plug-in does not do that so well. Per the US Dept of Energy ratings for annual fuel cost for 15K miles traveled is less for the Volt than the plug-in Prius. Get the advanced trim plug in Prius model and expect a price tag “comparable to what you’d pay for a Chevrolet Volt, but the federal tax credit for the Prius plug-in is only $2,500, as opposed to $7,500 for the Volt and other pure EVs.” And “unlike the Volt, the Prius plug-in is never an unequivocal EV, even for the portion that’s supposed to be gas-free.”

Sales?

Not bad considering the Right Wing disinformation campaign against it.

Not the car for me I admit, but of course one car is not the right car for everyone. We all have different circumstances and different cars will fit each of those perceived needs differently as well. For me the C-Max Energi has a better price point and more utility. But this is one case where it may be literally true that your mileage may vary.

Hasn’t broken $4 in my area for years. I just paid $3.65 for it and that price is high because refineries were down. It could be $5 now if the cartels wanted it to be. It could also be $2 if competition requires it.

the next paragraph in the same article you quoted:

“Last week, a Forbes piece said GM is manipulating its sales numbers. Forbes contributor Patrick Michaels accused GM of “giving away rent-a-Volts” to inflate the Volt’s sales numbers to a record high 2,831 units last month. Michaels also alluded to recent reports that the Department of Defense will buy 1,500 Volts, calling such a purchase a “scam” by the U.S. government.”

It’s the car for a lot of people when they find a battery for it. I predict the market will expand rapidly when that happens. In the mean time it’s not selling well. You can put lipstick on that pig all you want it won’t change the fact that nobody wants it.

And there is no disinformation campaign against it. In fact, there was a huge disinformation campaign FOR it with people insisting the ICE engine was only a generator when in fact it connects to the transmission directly when in extended mode. The car was showered with nothing but praise and awards before it ever hit the showroom.

That is not a realistic scenario given our transportation infrastructure. The cost to business would be substantial.

The trouble is that driving is a necessity in most US cities, so gas taxes end up being very regressive. The people it hurts the most don’t make decisions about what kinds of cars get built because they don’t buy new cars. In the greater scheme of things, fuel cost is very small proportion of the costs of owning a new vehicle, and even doubling the cost of gas isn’t going to make that much of a difference to new car buyers.