# Groundhog Day data **URL:** \ **Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share\ **Created:** [February 3, 2024, 6:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/groundhog-day-data/997072 "2024-02-03T18:46:49Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 11\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![mixdenny](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mixdenny/32/2962_2.png) [@mixdenny](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mixdenny)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2024, 6:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/groundhog-day-data/997072/1 "2024-02-03T18:46:49Z")
This is separate from the “What the? It’s groundhog day again” thread. This is hard data. One local reporter collated the results of all the past predictions he could find in the local paper archives. Mr Hog was correct only 39% of the time. Terrible. He can’t even get close to a 50/50 guess. So what I’m thinking is that way back when the originator of this prediction method worked out the details he somehow got it backwards. I mean, a 61% correct prediction would be decent. ---
**Author:** ![running\_coach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/running_coach/32/15836_2.png) [@running\_coach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/running_coach)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2024, 7:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/groundhog-day-data/997072/2 "2024-02-03T19:08:27Z")
> [@mixdenny](#): > > Mr Hog was correct only 39% of the time. - You mean the people that came up with this only got 39% correct. 😉 ---
**Author:** ![carnivorousplant](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnivorousplant/32/3563_2.png) [@carnivorousplant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/carnivorousplant)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2024, 7:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/groundhog-day-data/997072/3 "2024-02-03T19:47:56Z")
NPR reported a 30% success rate. I’m going to go with mixdenny. If he goes back into his tunnel after seeing his shadow, it means there will be good weather and he nap before doing his groundhog stuff, whatever that is. ---
**Author:** ![Karen\_Lingel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/karen_lingel/32/18649_2.png) [@Karen\_Lingel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Karen_Lingel)\ **Post date:** [February 4, 2024, 5:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/groundhog-day-data/997072/4 "2024-02-04T17:55:32Z")
> [@carnivorousplant](#): > > …groundhog stuff, whatever that is Hogging ground, duh. ---
**Author:** ![carnivorousplant](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnivorousplant/32/3563_2.png) [@carnivorousplant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/carnivorousplant)\ **Post date:** [February 4, 2024, 6:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/groundhog-day-data/997072/5 "2024-02-04T18:08:27Z")
Why, of course! ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_L.A](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_l.a/32/1084_2.png) [@Johnny\_L.A](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_L.A)\ **Post date:** [February 4, 2024, 6:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/groundhog-day-data/997072/6 "2024-02-04T18:28:37Z")
If he sees his shadow, there will be six more weeks of Winter. If he _doesn’t_ see his shadow, Winter will only last another month and a half. ---
**Author:** ![Riemann](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/riemann/32/3133_2.png) [@Riemann](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Riemann)\ **Post date:** [February 4, 2024, 6:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/groundhog-day-data/997072/7 "2024-02-04T18:38:41Z")
> [@mixdenny](#): > > Mr Hog was correct only 39% of the time. > [@carnivorousplant](#): > > NPR reported a 30% success rate. I assume that this is not adjusted for the baseline frequency. Because being consistently _incorrect_ significantly more than half the time would be just as remarkable as the opposite. It would just mean that people were not reading the output correctly, and the groundhog is outperforming all supercomputer weather forecasting algorithms. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [February 4, 2024, 7:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/groundhog-day-data/997072/8 "2024-02-04T19:11:50Z")
> [@Johnny\_L.A](#): > > If he sees his shadow, there will be six more weeks of Winter. > > If he _doesn’t_ see his shadow, Winter will only last another month and a half. Yeah, I’ve always heard it more or less like this, too. The groundhog’s “prediction” is set up in such a way that it can’t be wrong. But even if you do assign meaningful outcomes to it, how does one define what constitutes “the end of winter”? First thaw? Last freeze? Whether the temperature on March 16th (15th leap) is above or below the local median for that date? ---
**Author:** ![mixdenny](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mixdenny/32/2962_2.png) [@mixdenny](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mixdenny)\ **Post date:** [February 4, 2024, 8:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/groundhog-day-data/997072/9 "2024-02-04T20:28:58Z")
> [@Riemann](#): > > It would just mean that people were not reading the output correctly, and the groundhog is outperforming all supercomputer weather forecasting algorithms. My point exactly. ---
**Author:** ![carnivorousplant](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnivorousplant/32/3563_2.png) [@carnivorousplant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/carnivorousplant)\ **Post date:** [February 4, 2024, 11:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/groundhog-day-data/997072/10 "2024-02-04T23:17:22Z")
I thought I said that. At any rate, I agree. Phil needs a NOT gate. ---
**Author:** ![markn\_1](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f9ae1b/32.png) [@markn\_1](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/markn_1)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2024, 5:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/groundhog-day-data/997072/11 "2024-02-05T05:55:29Z")
How much ground would a groundhog hog if a groundhog would hog ground?