# Gulf War 3 thread **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [January 8, 2020, 1:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gulf-war-3-thread/846100 "2020-01-08T01:13:55Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![madmonk28](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/madmonk28/32/20811_2.png) [@madmonk28](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/madmonk28)\ **Post date:** [January 8, 2020, 3:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gulf-war-3-thread/846100/21 "2020-01-08T03:39:16Z")
> [@Ethilrist](#): > > He might take a hit in the polls if it turns out that American servicemen died… I doubt it, I think his approval rating will remain at about 42% no matter what. ---
**Author:** ![Max\_S](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/46a35a/32.png) [@Max\_S](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Max_S)\ **Post date:** [January 8, 2020, 3:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gulf-war-3-thread/846100/22 "2020-01-08T03:44:17Z")
> [@simster](#): > > [https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1214739853025394693](https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1214739853025394693) > > jsut wanted everyone to know that “all is well” … I am guessing that we won’t see the President try to declare war tomorrow morning. I know he isn’t up on the Constitution but surely he isn’t going to try something _that_ brash when we don’t even have American casualties. There are hawks in Congress but the last thing Republicans want is to start another unnecessary war in the Middle East, with all of the blame falling on an impeached Republican president, with no international support, in an election year, and without even a pretense of cassus bellli. ~Max ---
**Author:** ![orcenio](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/orcenio/32/1036_2.png) [@orcenio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/orcenio)\ **Post date:** [January 8, 2020, 3:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gulf-war-3-thread/846100/23 "2020-01-08T03:57:35Z")
Not an American but why did the US department of Defense even offer the assassination up as an option to Trump? Well he took it. Without any explanation for the need to urgently drone the bastard. I want to believe that someone does a calculation of likelihood/ability of deadly retaliation before droning becomes an option. Isn’t that why the US attacks terrorists and not North Korea? Or why the US uses proxies to overthrow enemy state leaders like Gaddiffi/Assad and not Putin? Someone makes a risk assessment before Trump can rule on this; no? Well that person needs to be fired or Soleimani’s immediate death better have been worth the lives lost in retaliation attacks. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [January 8, 2020, 3:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gulf-war-3-thread/846100/24 "2020-01-08T03:58:21Z")
A [Boeing 737 has crashed in Iran](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-01-08/boeing-737-passenger-jet-crashes-in-iran-due-to-technical-issue). What a busy news day. ---
**Author:** ![simster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/simster/32/1047_2.png) [@simster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/simster)\ **Post date:** [January 8, 2020, 3:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gulf-war-3-thread/846100/25 "2020-01-08T03:59:54Z")
> [@Max\_S](#): > > I am guessing that we won’t see the President try to declare war tomorrow morning. I know he isn’t up on the Constitution but surely he isn’t going to try something _that_ brash when we don’t even have American casualties. > > There are hawks in Congress but the last thing Republicans want is to start another unnecessary war in the Middle East, with all of the blame falling on an impeached Republican president, with no international support, in an election year, and without even a pretense of cassus bellli. > > ~Max hmmmm > [@Supreme Leader Trump @](#): > > [https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1213919480574812160](https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1213919480574812160) These Media Posts will serve as notification to the United States Congress that should Iran strike any U.S. person or target, the United States will quickly & fully strike back, & perhaps in a disproportionate manner. Such legal notice is not required, but is given nevertheless! > [@Dictator Trump @](#): > > [https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1213689342272659456](https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1213689342272659456) > The United States just spent Two Trillion Dollars on Military Equipment. We are the biggest and by far the BEST in the World! If Iran attacks an American Base, or any American, we will be sending some of that brand new beautiful equipment their way…and without hesitation! > [@some asshole in the whitehouse](#): > > [https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1213593965838163968](https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1213593965838163968) > Iran is talking very boldly about targeting certain USA assets as revenge for our ridding the world of their terrorist leader who had just killed an American, & badly wounded many others, not to mention all of the people he had killed over his lifetime, including recently… > > …hundreds of Iranian protesters. He was already attacking our Embassy, and preparing for additional hits in other locations. Iran has been nothing but problems for many years. Let this serve as a WARNING that if Iran strikes any Americans, or American assets, we have… > > …targeted 52 Iranian sites (representing the 52 American hostages taken by Iran many years ago), some at a very high level & important to Iran & the Iranian culture, and those targets, and Iran itself, WILL BE HIT VERY FAST AND VERY HARD. The USA wants no more threats! seems he’s stuck his foot in it. ---
**Author:** ![Sunny\_Daze](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sunny_daze/32/438_2.png) [@Sunny\_Daze](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sunny_Daze)\ **Post date:** [January 8, 2020, 4:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gulf-war-3-thread/846100/26 "2020-01-08T04:07:08Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > A [Boeing 737 has crashed in Iran](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-01-08/boeing-737-passenger-jet-crashes-in-iran-due-to-technical-issue). What a busy news day. I have a suspicious mind. A Ukrainian Airlines flight crashes shortly after leaving Tehran. I’m sure it’s all a giant coincidence that an ally of ours (sort of) and an enemy of Russia’s (definitely) had an airplane downed the same night as Iran launches missiles. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Stainless\_Steel\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/the_stainless_steel_rat/32/5727_2.png) [@The\_Stainless\_Steel\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Stainless_Steel_Rat)\ **Post date:** [January 8, 2020, 4:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gulf-war-3-thread/846100/27 "2020-01-08T04:09:44Z")
I wonder just how good Iranian targeting systems are. Because it seems to me that there are two possibilities: 1. The Iranians were aiming at US troops but missed. Which would indicate that they can’t call their shots very well (albeit they seemed to do just fine when they hit Saudi oil facilities in September) 2. They deliberately hit sites close too but not hitting Americans, to in effect saying “we could have have killed your people but didn’t, you want to talk now?” I have no idea if either of the above is true, or if the Iranians are communicating with us via ‘backchannels’ (Europe or Russia). Obviously the next step in the macabre dance is ours, and with Our President calling the shots, I am not confident that the next steps will be either nuanced or well thought-out. We shall see. ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [January 8, 2020, 4:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gulf-war-3-thread/846100/28 "2020-01-08T04:09:59Z")
> [@BeepKillBeep](#): > > We can all agree that Donald Trump owns every life lost on both sides from this right? Like I’m assuming none of the Trumpists and Trumpists-lite on this board will claim otherwise? Let’s go to the quarry and throw stuff down there! Comedy gold right here, ladies and gentlemen! Comedy GOLD! ---
**Author:** ![Max\_S](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/46a35a/32.png) [@Max\_S](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Max_S)\ **Post date:** [January 8, 2020, 4:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gulf-war-3-thread/846100/29 "2020-01-08T04:18:31Z")
> [@simster](#): > > > [@](#): > > > > [https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/…19480574812160](https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1213919480574812160) **These Media Posts will serve as notification to the United States Congress** that should Iran strike any U.S. person or target, the United States will quickly & fully strike back, & perhaps in a disproportionate manner. Such legal notice is not required, but is given nevertheless! That is terrifying. ~Max ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [January 8, 2020, 4:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gulf-war-3-thread/846100/30 "2020-01-08T04:20:59Z")
> [@The\_Stainless\_Steel\_Rat](#): > > I wonder just how good Iranian targeting systems are. Because it seems to me that there are two possibilities: > > 1. The Iranians were aiming at US troops but missed. Which would indicate that they can’t call their shots very well (albeit they seemed to do just fine when they hit Saudi oil facilities in September) > > 2. They deliberately hit sites close too but not hitting Americans, to in effect saying “we could have have killed your people but didn’t, you want to talk now?” > > I have no idea if either of the above is true, or if the Iranians are communicating with us via ‘backchannels’ (Europe or Russia). Obviously the next step in the macabre dance is ours, and with Our President calling the shots, I am not confident that the next steps will be either nuanced or well thought-out. > > We shall see. The 2nd option sounds much more plausible. Deep down, I don’t think Tehran wants war. They’re probably hoping Trump will resort to some non-kinetic things like cyberwarfare and let things cool down. Cyberwarfare, interestingly, offers a way out for both sides. It is still warfare, but doesn’t (usually) kill people, and is a non-violent way to let out steam. ---
**Author:** ![Declan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ecae2f/32.png) [@Declan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Declan)\ **Post date:** [January 8, 2020, 4:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gulf-war-3-thread/846100/31 "2020-01-08T04:40:16Z")
> [@The\_Stainless\_Steel\_Rat](#): > > I wonder just how good Iranian targeting systems are. Because it seems to me that there are two possibilities: > > 1. The Iranians were aiming at US troops but missed. Which would indicate that they can’t call their shots very well (albeit they seemed to do just fine when they hit Saudi oil facilities in September) > > 2. They deliberately hit sites close too but not hitting Americans, to in effect saying “we could have have killed your people but didn’t, you want to talk now?” > > I have no idea if either of the above is true, or if the Iranians are communicating with us via ‘backchannels’ (Europe or Russia). Obviously the next step in the macabre dance is ours, and with Our President calling the shots, I am not confident that the next steps will be either nuanced or well thought-out. > > We shall see. Those are area effect missiles, meant to be used with Gas or Nuke rounds. They were good enough to get them into the ball park, but one twitter video I was watching, showed the CRAM firing as it came down. Looks like the CRAM has the same problem as the first generation Patriot missile in Desert Storm. Cuts the missile in half, but the warhead still fuses on impact. Presicion targetting is not that missiles forte. As for number two, the military is going to phase one. Put up combat air patrols, send out notams to get Irani airspace clear of passenger planes, hold all tankers short of the hormuz straight and clear all traffic in and outbound. Start moving the Navy shooters to the gunline, Get the B-52’s to Diego Garcia, tanker aircraft and T-hawk reloads etc. ---
**Author:** ![Declan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ecae2f/32.png) [@Declan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Declan)\ **Post date:** [January 8, 2020, 4:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gulf-war-3-thread/846100/32 "2020-01-08T04:41:36Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > Cyberwarfare, interestingly, offers a way out for both sides. It is still warfare, but doesn’t (usually) kill people, and is a non-violent way to let out steam. Funny you should say that, I have to check with a friend tommorow, to see if those rockets can be remote launched. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [January 8, 2020, 4:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gulf-war-3-thread/846100/33 "2020-01-08T04:51:06Z")
> [@Declan](#): > > Get the B-52’s to Diego Garcia, tanker aircraft and T-hawk reloads etc. Shouldn’t they be emphasizing B-2s instead? Iran would probably be able to shoot down big lumbering non-stealthy bombers like B-52s. ---
**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\ **Post date:** [January 8, 2020, 4:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gulf-war-3-thread/846100/34 "2020-01-08T04:53:31Z")
> [@The\_Stainless\_Steel\_Rat](#): > > 1. They deliberately hit sites close too but not hitting Americans, to in effect saying “we could have have killed your people but didn’t, you want to talk now?” This. The BMs would have been picked up by satellite almost immediately and the warning would have been transmitted to the troops in danger by NORAD…_take cover you guys ,quickly_. They seem to have launched them en salvo from a couple of spots, to make sure the US could see them. If they had used Cruise Missiles and expendable drones, (like against the Saudis), then they would have had much less or no warning (depending on assets deployed). > [@](#): > > I have no idea if either of the above is true, or if the Iranians are communicating with us via ‘backchannels’ (Europe or Russia). Obviously the next step in the macabre dance is ours, and with Our President calling the shots, I am not confident that the next steps will be either nuanced or well thought-out. > > We shall see. We know that they are. ---
**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\ **Post date:** [January 8, 2020, 4:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gulf-war-3-thread/846100/35 "2020-01-08T04:55:12Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > Shouldn’t they be emphasizing B-2s instead? Iran would probably be able to shoot down big lumbering non-stealthy bombers like B-52s. …,equipped with advanced jammers and long range stand off weapons. ---
**Author:** ![aurora\_maire](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aurora_maire/32/328_2.png) [@aurora\_maire](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aurora_maire)\ **Post date:** [January 8, 2020, 4:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gulf-war-3-thread/846100/36 "2020-01-08T04:57:20Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > The 2nd option sounds much more plausible. Deep down, I don’t think Tehran wants war. They’re probably hoping Trump will resort to some non-kinetic things like cyberwarfare and let things cool down. > > Cyberwarfare, interestingly, offers a way out for both sides. It is still warfare, but doesn’t (usually) kill people, and is a non-violent way to let out steam. Since Iran retaliated with a measured response (and took credit for it) and it appears that Trump has backed down from his “fire and fury” rhetoric, it seems that there was some desperate back channeling going on so both sides could save face. Of course, Trump backing down will be spun as a glorious dear leader move. He just saved us all from World War 3 with his brilliant presidenting! It seems that _maybe_ cooler heads prevailed _this time_. ---
**Author:** ![Bryan\_Ekers](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bryan_ekers/32/183_2.png) [@Bryan\_Ekers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bryan_Ekers)\ **Post date:** [January 8, 2020, 5:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gulf-war-3-thread/846100/37 "2020-01-08T05:18:35Z")
> [@Defensive\_Indifference](#): > > Israel wants no part of this. NATO wants no part of it. You remember those hostages that Canada helped sneak out of Iran? They’re thinking about giving them back, that’s how much they want no part of this. ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [January 8, 2020, 5:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gulf-war-3-thread/846100/38 "2020-01-08T05:20:50Z")
> [@aurora\_maire](#): > > Since Iran retaliated with a measured response (and took credit for it) and it appears that Trump has backed down from his “fire and fury” rhetoric, it seems that there was some desperate back channeling going on so both sides could save face. Of course, Trump backing down will be spun as a glorious dear leader move. He just saved us all from World War 3 with his brilliant presidenting! It seems that _maybe_ cooler heads prevailed _this time_. Are you posting this now or from some future date? 😕 ---
**Author:** ![Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/try2b_comprehensive/32/65_2.png) [@Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Try2B_Comprehensive)\ **Post date:** [January 8, 2020, 5:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gulf-war-3-thread/846100/39 "2020-01-08T05:40:29Z")
> [@The\_Stainless\_Steel\_Rat](#): > > I wonder just how good Iranian targeting systems are. IMHO they were super good in the Saudi oil infrastructure attack. ---
**Author:** ![aurora\_maire](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aurora_maire/32/328_2.png) [@aurora\_maire](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aurora_maire)\ **Post date:** [January 8, 2020, 5:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gulf-war-3-thread/846100/40 "2020-01-08T05:50:26Z")
> [@Snowboarder\_Bo](#): > > Are you posting this now or from some future date? 😕 After his “all is well” tweet tonight and before his “how can the Soleimani loving Democrats impeach me when I just showed everyone how bigly presidential I am” speech tomorrow morning. 😃 And I did say “this time”. No expectations that we won’t be in the same shit, same time, next week. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gulf-war-3-thread/846100.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gulf-war-3-thread/846100.md?page=3)