# Gun Control doesn't work... Except for when it does **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [December 25, 2012, 9:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gun-control-doesnt-work-except-for-when-it-does/645135 "2012-12-25T21:57:48Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_stamos_left_ear/32/3198_2.png) [@John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Stamos_Left_Ear)\ **Post date:** [December 25, 2012, 9:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gun-control-doesnt-work-except-for-when-it-does/645135/1 "2012-12-25T21:57:48Z")
The argument that many gun rights advocates have is that gun control doesn’t work, that people won’t be deterred from committing crimes (“If guns are outlawed only outlaws will have guns,” they say in bumper sticker speak) and they often point to attempts here in America such as the Federal Assault Weapons Ban that had less than robust results. Well, what of Australia, who not only enacted gun control measures that did work, they did so within a couple of weeks of a tragic mass shooting, well within the mandated period where people are way too emotional to discuss these matters… Fortunately for Australia, they haven’t had to discuss them ever since since there hasn’t been a mass shooting there since then: > [@](#): > > On April 28, 1996, a gunman opened fire on tourists in a seaside resort in Port Arthur, Tasmania. By the time he was finished, he had killed 35 people and wounded 23 more. It was the worst mass murder in Australia’s history. > > Twelve days later, Australia’s government did something remarkable. Led by newly elected conservative Prime Minister John Howard, it announced a bipartisan deal with state and local governments to enact sweeping gun-control measures. A decade and a half hence, the results of these policy changes are clear: They worked really, really well. > > At the heart of the push was a massive buyback of more than 600,000 semi-automatic shotguns and rifles, or about one-fifth of all firearms in circulation in Australia. The country’s new gun laws prohibited private sales, required that all weapons be individually registered to their owners, and required that gun buyers present a “genuine reason” for needing each weapon at the time of the purchase. (Self-defense did not count.) > > [Slate](http://www.slate.com/blogs/crime/2012/12/16/gun_control_after_connecticut_shooting_could_australia_s_laws_provide_a.html) The results are in the linked story but to encapsulate it all, homicides by firearm plunged (with no corresponding increase in non-firearm-related homicides) as did suicides by gun. Robberies involving a firearm also dropped significantly. Meanwhile, home invasions did not increase. > [@](#): > > But here’s the most stunning statistic. In the decade before the Port Arthur massacre, there had been 11 mass shootings in the country. There hasn’t been a single one in Australia since. So gun control does work. It worked in an expansive country with tons of rural areas, and many state and local governing agencies and a lot of guns in circulation. A lot of similarities to our own country, albeit on a smaller scale. I wouldn’t be surprised if many Australians say that guns were a part of Aussie culture too. So why won’t it work here? Now, if you think it should work here but decry that a uniquely American right is being trampled upon, is there any way to modify this law where it would pass Constitutional mustard? ---
**Author:** ![brazil84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/8491ac/32.png) [@brazil84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/brazil84)\ **Post date:** [December 25, 2012, 10:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gun-control-doesnt-work-except-for-when-it-does/645135/2 "2012-12-25T22:04:19Z")
> [@John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](#): > > The argument that many gun rights advocates have is that gun control doesn’t work, that people won’t be deterred from committing crimes (“If guns are outlawed only outlaws will have guns,” they say in bumper sticker speak) and they often point to attempts here in America such as the Federal Assault Weapons Ban that had less than robust results. > > Well, what of Australia, who not only enacted gun control measures that did work, they did so within a couple of weeks of a tragic mass shooting, well within the mandated period where people are way too emotional to discuss these matters… Fortunately for Australia, they haven’t had to discuss them ever since since there hasn’t been a mass shooting there since then: I’m skeptical of your claims. Please post the figures for gun-murders and non-gun murders both before and after the legislation in Australia. If it turns out that non-gun murders in Australia decreased by an amount roughly the same as the decrease in gun murders, will you concede that gun control in fact did not work in Australia? ---
**Author:** ![pkbites](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pkbites/32/204_2.png) [@pkbites](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pkbites)\ **Post date:** [December 25, 2012, 10:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gun-control-doesnt-work-except-for-when-it-does/645135/3 "2012-12-25T22:11:29Z")
To start with: You’re comparing a country of 22 million with one of 315 million?:rolleyes: The USA has almost 15X more guns than Australia has people! ---
**Author:** ![Declan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ecae2f/32.png) [@Declan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Declan)\ **Post date:** [December 25, 2012, 10:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gun-control-doesnt-work-except-for-when-it-does/645135/4 "2012-12-25T22:16:30Z")
> [@John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](#): > > The argument that many gun rights advocates have is that gun control doesn’t work, that people won’t be deterred from committing crimes (“If guns are outlawed only outlaws will have guns,” they say in bumper sticker speak) and they often point to attempts here in America such as the Federal Assault Weapons Ban that had less than robust results. > . Fortunately for Australia, they haven’t had to discuss them ever since since there hasn’t been a mass shooting there since then: Its really a moot point. Within the space of two decades, the idea of gun control will be dead as a door nail. At the moment, the only point of control that could be choked is the sale through a vendor. The prolification of CNC fabs, will render that idea dead as a door nail. So much so, that the major proponents of some sort of gun control, may very well be the weapons manufacturers themselves. Declan ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [December 25, 2012, 10:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gun-control-doesnt-work-except-for-when-it-does/645135/5 "2012-12-25T22:26:14Z")
Homicide rate in the US in 1995 was 8.2/100,000. In 2001 it was 4.8/100,000. Wow, that’s a 40% drop. The murder rate in the US has been steadily declining since it peaked in ~ 1991 at around 10/100,000. That makes it a drop of about 50%. Not sure why Australia wouldn’t see a similar trend as the US, with or without gun control. And it’s not like there aren’t contrary studies within Australia: [Warning: PDF of study at Melbourne University.](http://www.ssaa.org.au/capital-news/2008/2008-09-04_melbourne-uni-paper-Aust-gun-buyback.pdf) > [@](#): > > This paper takes a closer look at the effects of the National Firearms Agreement on gun deaths. Using a battery of structural break tests, there is little evidence to suggest that it had any significant effect on firearm homicides and suicides ---
**Author:** ![running\_coach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/running_coach/32/15836_2.png) [@running\_coach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/running_coach)\ **Post date:** [December 25, 2012, 10:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gun-control-doesnt-work-except-for-when-it-does/645135/6 "2012-12-25T22:28:54Z")
Australia has always had more [gun control](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gun_politics_in_Australia) than the U.S. > [@](#): > > During the 1920s Australia, Canada and Great Britain became concerned about the rise of communism after the Bolshevik Revolution in Russia, \*\*and imposed restrictions on handguns.[\*\*6] The murders of three policemen in Western Australia and the rise of organised crime in Sydney and Melbourne, with a number of lurid underworld murders were also a factor.[7] **These restrictions have increased over the succeeding decades. In New South Wales, handguns were effectively banned after World War II** but the 1956 Melbourne Olympic Games sparked a new interest in the sport of pistol shooting and laws were changed to allow the sport to develop. > [@](#): > > Rifles and shotguns were less restricted than handguns. State gun laws varied widely. Western Australia and the Northern Territory had severe restrictions even on sporting rifles and shotguns, but in Queensland and Tasmania they could be bought without restrictions. > [@](#): > > In the 1940s and 1950s, Cold War concerns about ex-military rifles falling into the hands of communist radicals led New South Wales to place restrictions on the legal ownership of rifles of a military calibre (see: .303/25) while members of rifle clubs and military rifle clubs could own ex-military rifles. In the 1970s these restrictions were relaxed in New South Wales and military style rifles (both bolt-action and semi-automatic) once again became widely available, except in Western Australia and the Northern Territory. So basically, the number of guns were under control for many decades. and I doubt Australia has the crime/gang culture of the U.S. and the number of illegally held and hidden guns that are kept by those in that culture. ---
**Author:** ![Ethilrist](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ethilrist/32/4604_2.png) [@Ethilrist](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ethilrist)\ **Post date:** [December 25, 2012, 10:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gun-control-doesnt-work-except-for-when-it-does/645135/7 "2012-12-25T22:34:54Z")
> [@pkbites](#): > > To start with: > > You’re comparing a country of 22 million with one of 315 million?:rolleyes: > > The USA has almost 15X more guns than Australia has people! Is there any reason to believe that a system similar to Australia’s couldn’t be scaled to fit in the US? Fifteen times as many people, fifteen times as many guns, fifteen times as big of a process for removing the guns from circulation? ---
**Author:** ![brazil84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/8491ac/32.png) [@brazil84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/brazil84)\ **Post date:** [December 25, 2012, 10:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gun-control-doesnt-work-except-for-when-it-does/645135/8 "2012-12-25T22:41:52Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > The murder rate in the US has been steadily declining since it peaked in ~ 1991 at around 10/100,000. That makes it a drop of about 50%. Not sure why Australia wouldn’t see a similar trend as the US, with or without gun control. Well that’s the real question. If non-gun murders in Australia held steady while gun murders dropped dramatically, then there is finally actual evidence that gun control works. I am eagerly awaiting **John Stamos Left Ear** to post the actual numbers for scrutiny. ---
**Author:** ![pkbites](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pkbites/32/204_2.png) [@pkbites](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pkbites)\ **Post date:** [December 25, 2012, 10:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gun-control-doesnt-work-except-for-when-it-does/645135/9 "2012-12-25T22:44:06Z")
> [@Ethilrist](#): > > Is there any reason to believe that a system similar to Australia’s couldn’t be scaled to fit in the US? Fifteen times as many people, fifteen times as many guns, fifteen times as big of a process for removing the guns from circulation? There so many issues that could be compared here (the culture, the massive amounts of urban areas the U.S. has as compared to the amount Australia has, etc.) that I don’t even know where to start. So I won’t. Besides, even if I came up with a workable way to effectively confiscate large amounts of guns in this country I sure the fuck wouldn’t reveal it! ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [December 25, 2012, 10:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gun-control-doesnt-work-except-for-when-it-does/645135/10 "2012-12-25T22:44:40Z")
If homicide rates go down, that means that gun control isn’t necessary. If homicide rates go up, that means gun control doesn’t work. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [December 25, 2012, 10:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gun-control-doesnt-work-except-for-when-it-does/645135/11 "2012-12-25T22:48:01Z")
> [@John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](#): > > I wouldn’t be surprised if many Australians say that guns were a part of Aussie culture too. [Never trust what you might be surprised by.](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Number_of_guns_per_capita_by_country) Guns per 100 residents in the US: 88 (rank 1/178) Guns per 100 residents in Australia: 15 (rank 42/178) Australia has a long history of gun control, including very restrictive laws on handgun ownership. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [December 25, 2012, 10:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gun-control-doesnt-work-except-for-when-it-does/645135/12 "2012-12-25T22:53:16Z")
> [@brazil84](#): > > Well that’s the real question. If non-gun murders in Australia held steady while gun murders dropped dramatically, then there is finally actual evidence that gun control works. I am eagerly awaiting **John Stamos Left Ear** to post the actual numbers for scrutiny. The drop in homicides in the US in the last 20 years or so is mostly due to the drop in [deaths by handguns.](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Ushomicidesbyweapon.svg) ---
**Author:** ![Ethilrist](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ethilrist/32/4604_2.png) [@Ethilrist](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ethilrist)\ **Post date:** [December 25, 2012, 10:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gun-control-doesnt-work-except-for-when-it-does/645135/13 "2012-12-25T22:54:59Z")
> [@brazil84](#): > > Well that’s the real question. If non-gun murders in Australia held steady while gun murders dropped dramatically, then there is finally actual evidence that gun control works. I am eagerly awaiting **John Stamos Left Ear** to post the actual numbers for scrutiny. According to the OP, there haven’t been any mass shootings in Australia since they made this change. Although this doesn’t speak to whether or not guns are being used to kill people, hurt people, or commit crimes, I’m willing to accept “zero” as the actual number of mass shootings, which would seem to be what the Australians were trying to prevent. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [December 25, 2012, 11:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gun-control-doesnt-work-except-for-when-it-does/645135/14 "2012-12-25T23:13:30Z")
> [@](#): > > At the heart of the push was a massive buyback of more than 600,000 semi-automatic shotguns and rifles, or about one-fifth of all firearms in circulation in Australia. The country’s new gun laws prohibited private sales, required that all weapons be individually registered to their owners, and required that gun buyers present a “genuine reason” for needing each weapon at the time of the purchase. (Self-defense did not count.) The buyback part of the program isn’t a bad idea, and we’ve had those on a small scale in the US. It should be noted that these buybacks are voluntary, so you have to believe that the psychos out there are going to freely give up their guns (or the relatives of the psychos are going to do that). I’m skeptical, but I’m happy to see such programs. Most people in the US favor getting rid of the “gun show loophole”, which I believe is the thrust of the “private sale” aspect. Ditto with registration. Presenting a “genuine reason” to purchase a gun would no doubt be unconstitutional here. A right does not require a “genuine reason” to exercise. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_stamos_left_ear/32/3198_2.png) [@John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Stamos_Left_Ear)\ **Post date:** [December 25, 2012, 11:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gun-control-doesnt-work-except-for-when-it-does/645135/15 "2012-12-25T23:42:36Z")
> [@brazil84](#): > > I’m skeptical of your claims. Please post the figures for gun-murders and non-gun murders both before and after the legislation in Australia. Read the link I posted. It has links to all of the studies - more than one - and also comments on the methodology of a study that refutes it. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_stamos_left_ear/32/3198_2.png) [@John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Stamos_Left_Ear)\ **Post date:** [December 25, 2012, 11:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gun-control-doesnt-work-except-for-when-it-does/645135/16 "2012-12-25T23:58:39Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > Presenting a “genuine reason” to purchase a gun would no doubt be unconstitutional here. A right does not require a “genuine reason” to exercise. I found at least one case where you are wrong though there may be more. [Here is the form](http://www.nps.gov/nama/planyourvisit/upload/Public-Gathering-Application-Attachments-with-new-expiration-date-new-address-2-28-2014-new-phone-numberse.pdf) you have to fill out do get a protest permit in the National Mall and other parks in the DC area. You will notice that it asks the “purpose of proposed activity.” You also have to tell them if you have a reason to think there might be counter-protesters. Good luck leaving those answers blank and getting your permit. So in order to get your permit to peaceably assemble - a Constitutional right - you need to give your reason for doing so (among other things). ---
**Author:** ![John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_stamos_left_ear/32/3198_2.png) [@John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Stamos_Left_Ear)\ **Post date:** [December 26, 2012, 12:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gun-control-doesnt-work-except-for-when-it-does/645135/17 "2012-12-26T00:02:22Z")
> [@Czarcasm](#): > > If homicide rates go down, that means that gun control isn’t necessary. > If homicide rates go up, that means gun control doesn’t work. Yeah. This seems to be the speaking-out-of-both-sides-of-their-mouth deal when it came to renewing the AWB. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [December 26, 2012, 12:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gun-control-doesnt-work-except-for-when-it-does/645135/18 "2012-12-26T00:04:40Z")
> [@John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](#): > > Read the link I posted. It has links to all of the studies - more than one - and also comments on the methodology of a study that refutes it. It doesn’t mention the study I linked to. And, oddly, it cites the links of the 2006 study authors to pro-gun groups, but doesn’t mention the links to anti-gun groups by the author of the study it is pushing, [Simon Chapman.](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simon_Chapman_(academic)) > [@](#): > > Simon Chapman is a life member of the Australian Consumers’ Association and was its chairman 1999-2002. He served on the board of The Cancer Council New South Wales for 9 years until 2006. He was a key member of the Coalition for Gun Control… ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [December 26, 2012, 12:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gun-control-doesnt-work-except-for-when-it-does/645135/19 "2012-12-26T00:08:10Z")
> [@John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](#): > > I found at least one case where you are wrong though there may be more. > > [Here is the form](http://www.nps.gov/nama/planyourvisit/upload/Public-Gathering-Application-Attachments-with-new-expiration-date-new-address-2-28-2014-new-phone-numberse.pdf) you have to fill out do get a protest permit in the National Mall and other parks in the DC area. > > You will notice that it asks the “purpose of proposed activity.” You also have to tell them if you have a reason to think there might be counter-protesters. Good luck leaving those answers blank and getting your permit. > > So in order to get your permit to peaceably assemble - a Constitutional right - you need to give your reason for doing so (among other things). They might be able to ask for the reason, but they can’t reject you for the reason, unless it is one of public safety. Your cite says that “self defense” is not a valid reason. Imagine if the form you linked to said “promoting methods of self defense is not a valid reason”. ---
**Author:** ![Stealth\_Potato](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/d78d45/32.png) [@Stealth\_Potato](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stealth_Potato)\ **Post date:** [December 26, 2012, 2:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gun-control-doesnt-work-except-for-when-it-does/645135/20 "2012-12-26T02:16:47Z")
> [@John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](#): > > Yeah. This seems to be the speaking-out-of-both-sides-of-their-mouth deal when it came to renewing the AWB. To be fair, nobody in their right mind could have possibly thought the AWB would have any impact on crime rates, good or bad. In addition to being totally toothless by virtue of being entirely cosmetic rather than functional, the guns it pretended to target were only involved in around 0.5% of gun crimes. Assault weapon bans are useless feel-good measures even if they were to work perfectly. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gun-control-doesnt-work-except-for-when-it-does/645135.md?page=2)