# Gut feeling: how will the American presidential election turn out? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [October 19, 2012, 6:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gut-feeling-how-will-the-american-presidential-election-turn-out/638255 "2012-10-19T18:21:55Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 16\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2012, 2:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gut-feeling-how-will-the-american-presidential-election-turn-out/638255/41 "2012-10-21T02:15:43Z")
1. Obama 2. Obama 3. b 4. Gut feeling. (Hey, that’s what you asked for.) In addition: A. Dems hang onto the Senate with 52-53 seats. B. GOP holds the House, despite modest gains by Dems. ---
**Author:** ![enomaj](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/59ef9b/32.png) [@enomaj](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/enomaj)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2012, 3:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gut-feeling-how-will-the-american-presidential-election-turn-out/638255/42 "2012-10-21T03:27:37Z")
> [@enomaj](#): > > No. Amending my post, I think Romney can win a fair election but there are a number of Republican AGs and legislatures that aren’t gonna let him prove it. ---
**Author:** ![digs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/digs/32/14889_2.png) [@digs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/digs)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2012, 3:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gut-feeling-how-will-the-american-presidential-election-turn-out/638255/43 "2012-10-21T03:42:31Z")
I predict… that I’m going to be one of many here who has been giving themselves heart attacks (imagining a Romney presidency), worrying about every little poll five times a week, and believing all these network pundits claiming it’s a 50/50 horse race. And on election night, I’m going to be shocked: “Wha…? Obama got another state? Why the hell was I tossing in my sleep for thirty of the last fifty-five nights?” ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2012, 5:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gut-feeling-how-will-the-american-presidential-election-turn-out/638255/44 "2012-10-21T05:51:25Z")
> [@Stratocaster](#): > > What am I, chopped liver? 😃 Ask **Bricker** ; he was the one ignoring you. 😉 ---
**Author:** ![TriPolar](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tripolar/32/3008_2.png) [@TriPolar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TriPolar)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2012, 6:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gut-feeling-how-will-the-american-presidential-election-turn-out/638255/45 "2012-10-21T06:11:18Z")
1. Obama 2. Obama 3. c 4. I don’t want to consider the alternative. 5. There won’t be much change in public opinions. ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_Captor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/f17d59/32.png) [@Evil\_Captor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Captor)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2012, 6:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gut-feeling-how-will-the-american-presidential-election-turn-out/638255/46 "2012-10-21T06:28:25Z")
Obama Romney Somewhere between C and D I don’t have a gut feeling, all I have are media reports, I live in the Deep South and if it went with what the people I personally know were voting for, we would not have had a democratic president since the Civil Rights Act got passed. That said, I think the election will be very close. I also think the Republican Party strategy is to steal elections where they can. You can steal a close election, not one with a clear winner like we had in 2008. I think the vote suppression, voter caging and dirty tricks might be the margin of victory in some key battleground states. Not just Florida, as elucidator states, I think Ohio will be a huge mess, too. That said, Obama might win as well. If Romney DOES win it will be by a very narrow margin. How will people react: “The election sucked, the government sucks, but meh, whachagonnado?” ---
**Author:** ![Acid\_Lamp](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/d6d6ee/32.png) [@Acid\_Lamp](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Acid_Lamp)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2012, 2:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gut-feeling-how-will-the-american-presidential-election-turn-out/638255/47 "2012-10-21T14:00:10Z")
1. Obama 2. Obama 3. C-D 4. Gut Feeling. 5. It depends on how the election is decided. If it is C then the public will return to business as usual with the predictable grumbling. If it goes to a Supreme Court Decision, things could get…interesting. ---
**Author:** ![River\_Hippie](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/river_hippie/32/26_2.png) [@River\_Hippie](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/River_Hippie)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2012, 2:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gut-feeling-how-will-the-american-presidential-election-turn-out/638255/48 "2012-10-21T14:58:43Z")
1. Obama 2. Romney Multiple choice question: 3. (b) Clear victory with less of a mandate–i.e, a clear electoral college victory but a much closer popular vote 4. Based on the hatred of Obama that I hear expressed by people I’m in contact with. And the effectiveness of the rightwing propaganda campaign. 5. I think there will be a surge in the economy because the idea of Romney being a business genius and knowing how to turn the economy around will be a self fulfilling prophecy regardless of what he does. It may even start before he takes office. ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2012, 3:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gut-feeling-how-will-the-american-presidential-election-turn-out/638255/49 "2012-10-21T15:31:24Z")
1 - Don’t really care. 2 - Obama. 3 - b 4 - “Better the devil we know” sums it up. Neither Romney nor Obama are leaders in the Reagan or JFK mould; both are technicians rather than leaders. Neither are bad choices. Obama’s economic achievements have gone largely unappreciated, but while the perception is the reality, Romney isn’t offering anything better. 5 - I don’t think there will be much of a reaction overall. The chatterati will chat, and it will be an interesting time to be a Republican. Of course, I’m British, and don’t have a vote. ---
**Author:** ![Catballou](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/a587f6/32.png) [@Catballou](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Catballou)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2012, 3:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gut-feeling-how-will-the-american-presidential-election-turn-out/638255/50 "2012-10-21T15:49:32Z")
“No real mandate” I love that one. The Right gets a lot of mileage out of it. ---
**Author:** ![PandaBear77](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/edb3f5/32.png) [@PandaBear77](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PandaBear77)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2012, 5:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gut-feeling-how-will-the-american-presidential-election-turn-out/638255/51 "2012-10-21T17:02:06Z")
1. Romney 2. Romney 3. B 4. Why do you think things will turn out as you predict? I think people in general are extremely pissed off about the economy and, rightly or wrongly, will blame Obama for it and vote accordingly. 1. No unique reactions. When Obama won, liberals rejoiced and conservatives whined. Same thing will happen this time in reverse. Ultimately nothing will really change. 2. N/A ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2012, 3:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gut-feeling-how-will-the-american-presidential-election-turn-out/638255/52 "2012-10-29T03:20:06Z")
1. Obama. 2. Obama. 3. 303 electoral votes for Obama, 235 for Romney. In other words (a), with Fox News interpretting it as (c), and most people seeing it as (b). 4. I give Obama 2:1 odds. He has incumbency in his favor and a tepid recovery working against him. Passage of the jobs act in Fall 2011 would have delivered him victory on a platter: the Republican congress blocked that scenario. A recession would have destroyed him. Romney is underrated as a candidate and Obama is over-rated, but at the end of the day, I’d give one half to 1.5 percentage points in the popular vote to Obama: that’s the margin by which I expect him to beat the [Fair Model](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=666505). Also, while Republicans like to posture about budget deficits, they stopped caring about them in 1981. Otherwise, they wouldn’t support the sorts of massive unfunded and unaffordable tax cuts pushed by Reagan, GWBush and Romney, which lead to long run deficits as sure as the sun rises. 1. Given my prediction, Obama won’t win all the swing states (eg Florida and NC), so expect more of the same: conservatives bluster, liberals shake their heads and swing voters turn their attention back to more conventional sporting contests. ---
**Author:** ![flickster](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/7bcc69/32.png) [@flickster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flickster)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2012, 4:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gut-feeling-how-will-the-american-presidential-election-turn-out/638255/53 "2012-10-30T04:38:15Z")
1. Romney 2. Romney 3. A 4. I would have picked B, but seeing even a few of the board members here begrudginly picking Romney…makes me think landslide 5. Large urban areas will see some short lived unrest. ---
**Author:** ![zoog](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/7ea924/32.png) [@zoog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/zoog)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2012, 3:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gut-feeling-how-will-the-american-presidential-election-turn-out/638255/54 "2012-10-30T15:09:55Z")
_1. Ignoring all third-party candidates, who do you want to win?_ I’m going to hold my nose and vote for Obama. _2. Which candidate do you think will win?_ Obama \*Multiple choice question: 3. How big a margin of victory do you expect: \* (b) Clear victory with less of a mandate–i.e, a clear electoral college victory but a much closer popular vote I see it now as 290-248 in the EC, and a popular vote squeaker, something like 49.9 - 49.4 _Short answer essay questions 4. Why do you think things will turn out as you predict?_ Too many things have to break exactly right for Romney to win the EC - he has to get almost all of the swing states. The economic picture is still too shaky for a sitting president to have a landslide win, and this president has been absolutely reviled by a significant percentage of the populace since even before he took office, mostly for what I think are made up reasons. I have several reasons for being less than happy with Obama’s performance, but I don’t get the whole “He’s a Socialist! He’s not even an American!” thing. \*5. If your prediction is correct, how will the public react? \* About half the country will be livid and we’ll have at least two more years of gridlock (regardless of which guy wins). ---
**Author:** ![Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/7ba0ec/32.png) [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omg_a_Black_Conservative)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2012, 3:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gut-feeling-how-will-the-american-presidential-election-turn-out/638255/55 "2012-10-30T15:32:58Z")
> [@Skald\_the\_Rhymer](#): > > A repeat of my poll from the last election, which I would post to if I weren’t so saditty. > > **One-word-answer questions:** > > 1. Ignoring all third-party candidates, who do you **want** to win? > > 2. Which candidate do you **think** will win? > > **Multiple choice question:** > 3. How big a margin of victory do you expect: > (a) Electoral college & popular vote landslide providing an unquestionable mandate to run things the candidate’s way > (b) Clear victory with less of a mandate–i.e, a clear electoral college victory but a much closer popular vote > (c) Squeaker decided in the EC with no real mandate > (d) Supreme Court decision coming after weeks of litigation and providing no true mandate > (e) Something else I didn’t think of > > **Short answer essay questions** > 4. Why do you think things will turn out as you predict? > > 1. If your prediction is correct, how will the public react? > > 2. If your answer to question 3 was (E), what how do you think the election will be decided? 1.) Romney 2.) Romney 3.) B 4.) Romney garners more crossover votes than Obama, leads with Independents and is overperforming when compared to McCain in 2008 whereas Obama is overperforming. I don’t like looking at a state-by-state basis, but is there any state in which Obama will actually increase his lead over 2008? I doubt it. Not only does that make “red” states “crimson”, but it turns “light blue” states “purple” and “blue” states “light blue”. It would be like what happened in 2008 in reverse. And on a less quantitative point, if you were to objectively look at the two campaigns the last few weeks, the Romney campaign looks to be the confident one talking about jobs and the economy while the Obama campaign looks like the one who knows it’s losing, which is why they’ve been focusing on things to pander to their base (Big Bird, binders, bayonets, abortion, etc.). 5.) [Not well](http://twitchy.com/2012/10/09/new-civility-obama-supporters-threaten-to-riot-if-romney-wins/). [Not well at all](http://www.therightscoop.com/moveon-ad-features-old-lady-threatening-to-burn-this-mother-fer-down-if-romney-wins/). ---
**Author:** ![leftfield6](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/leftfield6/32/18780_2.png) [@leftfield6](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/leftfield6)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2012, 3:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gut-feeling-how-will-the-american-presidential-election-turn-out/638255/56 "2012-10-30T15:37:00Z")
1. Ignoring all third-party candidates, who do you want to win? **Obama** 2. Which candidate do you think will win? **Obama** Multiple choice question: 3. How big a margin of victory do you expect: **(b) Clear victory with less of a mandate–i.e, a clear electoral college victory but a much closer popular vote** **Popular vote will be close, EC will be 300ish for Obama** Short answer essay questions 4. Why do you think things will turn out as you predict? **538 has been my go-to recently, but looking at other sources as well. Obama’s ground game and campaign machine. Plus Romney is such a shitty candidate. Is this guy really the best the Pubbies have? Yeah, I know, as bad as he is, and the race is nearly neck and neck, but lot’s of people are holding their nose to vote pure red. At least as many as holding their nose to vote for Obama** 1. If your prediction is correct, how will the public react? **Relief by half, crazy ass accusations from the other half. Pretty much true no matter who wins.** [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gut-feeling-how-will-the-american-presidential-election-turn-out/638255.md?page=2)