# H1N1 flu **URL:** \ **Category:** Cecil's Columns/Staff Reports\ **Created:** [August 22, 2011, 4:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/h1n1-flu/593620 "2011-08-22T04:26:33Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 11\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Uncertain](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/6a8cbe/32.png) [@Uncertain](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Uncertain)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2011, 4:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/h1n1-flu/593620/1 "2011-08-22T04:26:33Z")
The [column about hand sanitizer](http://www.straightdope.com/columns/read/3008/how-are-you-supposed-to-use-hand-sanitizer) says this (bolding added): > [@](#): > > Big spikes in sales typically stem from media-fueled paranoia about the epidemic du jour, such as the 2009 panic over H1N1 flu. Sales rose 70 percent, even though **the average American’s chances of getting the disease were less than one in a million**. Huh? What is this supposed to mean? There were tens of millions of H1N1 cases in the US in 2009, corresponding to more than 10% of the population. ---
**Author:** ![elfkin477](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/a9a28c/32.png) [@elfkin477](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elfkin477)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2011, 5:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/h1n1-flu/593620/2 "2011-08-22T05:20:49Z")
Yeah, this is really really not right. The [CDC](http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/estimates_2009_h1n1.htm) estimated that up to 89 Million people got H1N1. The low range of their estimate is 43 Million, which itself is considerably greater than 1 in 10 people (the total US population is 312 million [currently](http://www.census.gov/main/www/popclock.html)). ---
**Author:** ![Uncertain](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/6a8cbe/32.png) [@Uncertain](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Uncertain)\ **Post date:** [August 26, 2011, 4:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/h1n1-flu/593620/3 "2011-08-26T16:05:42Z")
Bumping this. The column contains serious misinformation that should be corrected somewhere. ---
**Author:** ![samclem](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a9a28c/32.png) [@samclem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/samclem)\ **Post date:** [August 26, 2011, 7:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/h1n1-flu/593620/4 "2011-08-26T19:50:22Z")
> [@elfkin477](#): > > Yeah, this is really really not right. The [CDC](http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/estimates_2009_h1n1.htm) estimated that up to 89 Million people got H1N1. The low range of their estimate is 43 Million, which itself is considerably greater than 1 in 10 people (the total US population is 312 million [currently](http://www.census.gov/main/www/popclock.html)). Not quibbling with the possiblity that the column info should be revised. But the CDC actually said that the low range was between 39 million and 41 million. 10% of the population is about 31 million. So, yep, it exceeded the 10% in the column, assuming the CDC extrapolations were valid. > [@](#): > > •CDC estimates that between 39 million and 80 million cases of 2009 H1N1 occurred between April and December 12, 2009. The mid-level in this range is about 55 million people infected with 2009 H1N1. > •CDC estimates that between 41 million and 84 million cases of 2009 H1N1 occurred between April 2009 and January 16, 2010. The mid-level in this range is about 57 million people infected with 2009 H1N1. Figures are for 2009. ---
**Author:** ![Uncertain](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/6a8cbe/32.png) [@Uncertain](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Uncertain)\ **Post date:** [August 26, 2011, 9:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/h1n1-flu/593620/5 "2011-08-26T21:08:35Z")
> [@samclem](#): > > So, yep, it exceeded the 10% in the column, assuming the CDC extrapolations were valid. The column doesn’t say 10%, it says “less than one in a million”, which is a ridiculous claim. ---
**Author:** ![samclem](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a9a28c/32.png) [@samclem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/samclem)\ **Post date:** [August 26, 2011, 9:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/h1n1-flu/593620/6 "2011-08-26T21:32:37Z")
> [@Uncertain](#): > > The column doesn’t say 10%, it says “less than one in a million”, which is a ridiculous claim. So, Cecil claimed less than about 31 million. I agree, it wasn’t a good estimate on his part. ---
**Author:** ![samclem](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a9a28c/32.png) [@samclem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/samclem)\ **Post date:** [August 26, 2011, 10:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/h1n1-flu/593620/7 "2011-08-26T22:16:33Z")
> [@Uncertain](#): > > The column doesn’t say 10%, it says “less than one in a million”, which is a ridiculous claim. I hereby rescind my posts in this thread. I was wrong. Cecil blew it. I blame Little Ed. Editors are such idiots. ---
**Author:** ![Suburban\_Plankton](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/suburban_plankton/32/219_2.png) [@Suburban\_Plankton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Suburban_Plankton)\ **Post date:** [August 26, 2011, 10:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/h1n1-flu/593620/8 "2011-08-26T22:59:22Z")
How many deaths from H1N1 were there? True, the column doesn’t say " the average American’s chances of _dying from_ the disease were less than one in a million", so it’s still wrong, but perhaps that’s what was intended. Though I’m going to guess H1N1 claimed more than 312 lives, anyway. ---
**Author:** ![SiXSwordS](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/49beb7/32.png) [@SiXSwordS](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SiXSwordS)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2011, 7:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/h1n1-flu/593620/9 "2011-09-03T19:33:49Z")
> [@Suburban\_Plankton](#): > > How many deaths from H1N1 were there? > …I’m going to guess H1N1 claimed more than 312 lives, anyway. [ul] [li]CDC estimates that between 42 million and 86 million cases of 2009 H1N1 occurred between April 2009 and February 13, 2010. The mid-level in this range is about 59 million people infected with 2009 H1N1. [/li][li]CDC estimates that between about 188,000 and 389,000 H1N1-related hospitalizations occurred between April 2009 and February 13, 2010. The mid-level in this range is about 265,000 2009 H1N1-related hospitalizations. [/li][li]CDC estimates that between about 8,520 and 17,620 2009 H1N1-related deaths occurred between April 2009 and February 13, 2010. The mid-level in this range is about 12,000 2009 H1N1-related deaths.[/li][/ul] [cite](http://www.cdc.gov/H1N1flu/estimates/April_February_13.htm) [Also See](http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/general_info.htm) [And one non-CDC](http://new.paho.org/hq/images/atlas/en/atlas.html) ---
**Author:** ![elfkin477](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/a9a28c/32.png) [@elfkin477](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elfkin477)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2011, 5:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/h1n1-flu/593620/10 "2011-09-04T05:09:57Z")
> [@Uncertain](#): > > The column doesn’t say 10%, it says “less than one in a million”, which is a ridiculous claim. Oh, come on, 31 million people vs less than 31 people, that’s pretty close, right? 😃 ---
**Author:** ![ZenBeam](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/3ab097/32.png) [@ZenBeam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ZenBeam)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2011, 3:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/h1n1-flu/593620/11 "2011-09-04T15:25:44Z")
> [@elfkin477](#): > > Oh, come on, 31 million people vs less than 31 people, that’s pretty close, right? 😃 1 in a million would be more like 310 people, not 31. But you’re still a factor of 100,000 times more accurate than **Cecil**. Not too shabby!