How bad were his health problems?
According to who?
Not sure why people seem to be thinking he wouldn’t have been effective doing so as the VP instead of the P. Maybe even more so, if he could have put more time into it and participated in the Senate.
Everyone, including Johnson, knew he was a marginal figure in the Kennedy administration. He had no power or influence as VP. All Johnson was doing as VP was doing his time and hoping he still had a shot at the 1968 nomination.
Kennedy probably still gets reelected, especially if Goldwater runs. Goldwater might win a few more states however. OTOH, I don’t see LBJ running much less winning in 1968 without the advantage of an incumbent Presidency, and see Hubert Humphrey or even RFK as more likely. Whether the nominee wins against the Republican (it may still very well be Richard Nixon), depends on how Vietnam turns out under JFK.
But does it or does it not end/perpetuate the Vietnam War? That makes all the difference, y’know.
John Kennedy was not too unpopular with the conservatives at that time but his brother Robert was dispised by the right. Some of that hatred for Robert may have spilled over onto Jack. I was only in my teens at the time but I do recall hearing a lot of conversations about the relationship between the two.
According to me. Look at the period. There was a lot of backlash against the Civil Rights movement, but there was also a strong steady pressure not about to go away until satisfied.
Why was that, anyway?
Without filibuster rules being rewritten, absent the kind of pressure Johnson was able to bring to bear, which was helped by the killing of JFK, it would have taken quite a while.
More importantly: would the Beatles have had as great an impact in America had he lived?
Yes.
They were the Beatles.
This is covered in Robert Caro’s most recent book on LBJ. Johnson understood exactly how the southern Senators worked - having been part of their system. He had given Kennedy advice about passing a civil rights bill in the face of the southern filibuster in 1963. His advice was ignored, and he had no role in the passage before the assassination. While the 1963 experience may well have colored a Kennedy administration’s strategy in 1964, it would have been a tremendous change of heart for them to allow LBJ a key role.
Also, Johnson likely would not have been able to do as much in VP, in part because at the beginning of his term as VP he attempted to set himself up as de facto Majority Leader, using Mansfield as a puppet. While Mansfield seemed to go along at first, the true Senate power brokers (mostly the same southern Senators who led the fight against a Civil Rights bill) shot that notion down, very quickly and clearly laying out the separation between the legislative and executive branches. As President though, Johnson had the power to make certain threats, and promise certain rewards, that got the bill passed.
Why wouldn’t they?
Some people have argued that part of the reason for the phenomenal explosion of the Beatles in America was due to people wanting a distraction from the weeks of grief and mourning after Kennedy’s death (the Beatles first trip to America came about ten weeks after the assassination).
Not as bad or as visible as FDR’s.
He was a popular president with charisma. He had a very charming and popular wife who was bringing quite a bit of new vitality to the White House.
He was a war hero. And his family had money, lots of it and political connections. He had stared down the Russians, and won that game in the Cuban Missile Crisis. He was a Democrat in the same way that Ronald Reagan was a Democrat, before he became a Republican.
I can not imagine a challenger that could prevent a second term. Of course he would be re-elected.
Was the 25th amendment inevitable by 1963? If it stalls for lack of the impetus of a presidential death, I’m curious how it would affect the Nixon/Agnew/Ford/Rockefeller sequence.
It is quite probable Nixon would never be President and that Nixon wouldn’t resign even if he was elected due to the Butterfly effect.
I’d say it would have stalled. It was in the air in 1963 but mainly because it was a pet cause of Senator Estes Kefauver, who felt it was a problem that needed to be addressed. Then Kefauver died in 1963 and with his death, the issue probably would have been forgotten. But then Kennedy’s assassination provided the motive for other politicians to pick up Kefauver’s proposal and push it through into an amendment.
So assume Kennedy lives and is re-elected in 1964. And let’s assume Nixon is the Republican nominee in 1968 and beats the Democratic nominee (Vice President Johnson for the sake of argument). And finally assume Agnew and Nixon had both resigned as they historically did. In such a case, Speaker of the House Carl Albert would have become President when Nixon resigned without a Vice President in office.
It’s pretty unlikely President Albert would have sought re-election. He was involved in a bribery scandal in 1976. While not directly charged, it probably would have been enough to kill off any hopes he might have had for getting elected President in his own right.