It seems unlikely that any modern plane that loses both pilots will be saved by a passenger or crew member - even if there’s another airline pilot on board as a passenger, there’s a pretty good chance the door would be locked. And if the door was unlocked and no experts in Microsoft Flight Simulator were on board I seriously doubt that mission control will be in any position to talk the pilots down.
So you can figure that very near to 1 in 4 of all commercial airplanes will drop out of the sky and crash (presuming two pilots and randomly distributed disappearances).
On the other hand, nearly half of the cars on the street will crash - even if there’s a passenger in the front most of them won’t be at all prepared to react in time to do anything. Not all of these crashes would be fatal - some of the cars will be in parking lots. But freeways will become death tracks - worsened by the fact that any crashes will likely impact nearby manned cars, literally. And as noted, no help is coming.
Humanity would survive in scattered enclaves that were pretty much self-sufficient to begin with, such as farm communities. Cities would be devastated. Between the 50% initial loss, the percentage killed immediately after because of the chaos, and those killed in the following days and weeks through starvation, homicide and suicide, the casualty rate would be pretty close to 100% of those that didn’t escape that environment.
The human population is very resilient. And many people underestimate that resiliency. While the effects would be devastating, it’s not like all knowledge of modern society would disappear. Many of the comments in this thread remind me of the hysteria which Y2K sparked and allowed many lucrative consultants to make hundreds of millions on gullible people.
How many of you bought generators, cases of bottled water, and took all your cash out of the bank and put it under your mattress in December of 1999?
A loss of electricity stretching more than a couple of days could put the pressure on, pressure under which some would crack with the additional stresses already piled on them. Electricity makes a lot of ills bearable and the loss of it makes a lot of problems insufferable. But I think we wouldn’t lose much electricity, though I’m not sure how to incorporate the immediate mayhem in the skies and on the freeways into that equation.
IMO, the survivors will be completely screwed, unless the remaining half of the population is capable of upkeep on all of the nuclear reactors throughout the world.
To keep the reactors running you need four things:
An influential person who realizes that nuke plants and power plants and such need maintenance,
Some people who know how to do that maintenance,
Some people to transport the needed people places (say, helicopter pilots)
A way for everyone to find one another.
I don’t think that 4 is going to be a problem in this day and age, and it’s statistically improbable that everyone capable of running (or safely shutting down) a nuke plant will go poof. So I’d say that any problem that can be handled with a relatively small number of people, even if it requires expert people, will probably be handled okay.
Honestly the only system that I expect to go down and stay down for any length of time would be the highway system - though a handful of remote towns might find themselves suddenly powerless if an errant semi takes out the right power pole. The part that will truly suck, of course, is that we do most of our food shipment on those highways. That will cause problems, especially in cities.
This would be the single largest disaster in human history… and even emergency services would be cut in half. There simply wouldn’t be any response to many of the fires. I think the suburbs and downtown areas would be smoldering ruins by the time it’s all over.
Disease spread about from all the dead bodies cause by accident, neglect, looting, mayhem etc. Prisons half empty guarded by far less than half the staff. There may be only half the population to police, but the area to cover remains the same and criminals will catch on quick.
After thinking over this question some more, I think I’ve seriously underestimated the immediate disruption caused by a loss of half of humanity. Yes, there would still be plenty of us left to operate a modern society but the question is if we can hold on to what we have in the immediate chaotic days afterward. Would enough people come to work to keep the grid going? Could we clear the highways quickly enough for food shipments to get through? (somebody earlier said that we’d get this done fast, I’m not sure that I agree) And if we* were *able to maintain a domestic stability, could we withstand the pressures coming from elsewhere around the globe where society would be more likely to break down quickly?
I’m not even factoring in the emotional trauma. If you lost half your family, would you be more likely to go to work and save the nation’s infrastructure or remain close to remaining family members?
Yes, there would be immediate chaos, and only 50% of the normal flight tracking crew on the ground.
But that’s only immediately. They’ll ground new planes, and the 75% of planes with a pilot are going to land ASAP. So pretty soon you’ve got 50% of your flight controllers. for less than 25% of normal air traffic (I’m assuming a few of the pilotless planes will have crashed in that time).
A plane set on autopilot is going to continue on autopilot, so even if the door is locked, nothing’s going to happen for a while. There’s time. Most flights in the air are going to have hours and hours of spare fuel. I’m not sure what the standard safety margin is, but most of them are planning to be in the air for several hours just to get to their normal destination. They’ll have half that (on average) plus a margin.
So, the questions are: How secure are those cockpit doors, and is it possible to talk a non-pilot through landing a jetliner.
I’m pretty sure the answer to the latter question is yes, with some reasonable success rate.
This article says that if the pilots become incapacitated, there’s an emergency entry code that crew can use to enter. Assuming that’s standard—and something like it probably is—then the door locks won’t be a major issue.
I imagine it’s impossible to know the level of chaos that would be taking place both on the planes and on the ground - I think it can be reasonably concluded that everybody involved would be freaking right the heck out due to people disintegrating around them and thus nobody would be at the top of the game. Sure there would be extreme incentive to bring everything down safely, but it wouldn’t surprise me if most of the de-piloted planes crash-landed at the airport due to poor amateur handling. (These might be the kinds of crashes that have survivors, though.)
In any case, I’d much rather be a passenger in an airliner when all this went down than a passenger in a car on the freeway.
I disagree. A lot depends upon the time of day,and I live in a particularly congested area, but if this happened in the daylight hours of a weekday, there’d be cars beside the roads for months. Remember, we’ve also lost half of the tow truck drivers.
Perhaps if they only moved the cars the few feet to the margin they’d get most of them done in the week. But what about the nightmare of clearing congested city areas with no margin, much less parking available?
I do think the price of used cars would go down precipitously. And after a week or so, the States could always declare the remaining cars to be jetsam, thus allowing anyone who finds one to take it and register it as their own.
About 27% of Americans live alone. So let’s say 14% of houses and apartments are suddenly free. Another 3-4% will empty in the coming weeks as folks consolidate and orphans move in with relatives. Prices will drop, but it’s not a housing crisis.
I would want to be in the half that disappears, so I’ll know where they went and what happened to them. Better than spending my life reading speculation on message board forums about what happened to them.
We have a dependency that that particular billion doesn’t. In addition to food and water supplies, communications would go down and that might be the most disruptive of all the problems caused by loss of electricity.
Another problem is that half of the gun nuts, not necessarily gun enthusiasts or even gun owners, I mean the nutcases who have been salivating for the Days of Rage and Freedom, would be much more inclined to impose their own reigns of terror on their local populations. Didn’t we all see The Postman?
I don’t actually agree that the electricity would go out. But if it did, most Americans would be lacking in the skills to get by without it. If it happened in Wintertime, a great many more would be up the creek without a wood-burning stove.
Most people who live without electricity also live in a climate that won’t kill them in their sleep. It’s a thing we take for granted today. But once upon a time, a great deal of the year was spent in putting up wood to get one’s family through the winter. If we suddenly had to adjust mid-December, few homes would be livable.
