If you would like to rename this thread, I’d be happy to ask the mods to change it. This is your Country, so it’s my pleasure to ask for a change.
Does sound like some people may have got complacent over several years of nothing “big” happening, and underestimated how much had Hamas improved their opsec to make it harder to know what was up. Expect heads will roll in the branches and cabinet.
I’m heartsick. I hope you stay safe, Alessan. Please update us when you can.
Or between a cold war and a hot war.
This was my thought. It’s understandable that an all out attack apparently planned and stockpiled for years has been able to overwhelm border forces at standard readiness. You can’t be ready for an attack of this scale 24/7. But that’s why Israel has intelligence forces, who should have been able to tell the army that Hamas is planning something and that the armyneeds to increase defenses at the border.
This is a massive tragedy. I have family serving in the IDF who are on the front lines of this thing.
There are ways of crippling Israel, conducting asymmetric warfare, and “making a statement” far beyond what you have seen now, but none of them involve killing civilians.
Unless it’s a psychological thing like 9/11 where of course civilians were killed, but there were long-lasting effects on the U.S. beyond the immediate damage. Does not necessarily mean something strategically visionary, could be capitalizing on the economic downtrend already in motion in Israel in order to exacerbate it (instability = less global megacorporation investment and skilled immigration).
Thanks. How about, “Hamas attacks Israel, October 2023”?
What do you mean, nothing to show for it? They’ll have shown Iran that all their money over the last few years has been well spent, they’ll create a shit load of martyrs for recruitment purposes, and when the IDF inevitably smashes them in response there will be plenty of orphans created to serve as the next generation of Hamas fighters. And, of course, they’ll have murdered a bunch of Israelis - their primary objective.
From their perspective, it’s a win-win-win-win.
I have no idea what Israel can do in response. There isn’t a nation on Earth whose regime would survive a response other than “smash Hamas to bits”, but of course that’s exactly how you create fertile ground for a resurgent Hamas or an even more putrid successor (see: ISIS).
In other words, if you are Hamas, and your goal is to ensure that Israel can not remove the thorn from its side for another generation, I can’t think of a better plan than exactly this sort of bullshit.
An article about presumed security failures.
Again, depends on what your goal is. If your goal is to do a bunch of damage to Israel long term, you need to worry about making sure that the next generation picks up the torch and continues throwing away their own lives to make Israel suffer. One way you can do this is by hitting Israeli civilians specifically, because in a democracy that’s the surest way to ensure that they strike back at you in a way that generates recruits.
The Atlantic article (two posts above), Excerpt
Israel’s counterterrorism efforts are extensive, and well supported by the United States. (As a member of the faculty at Harvard’s Kennedy School, I have taught many Israelis in homeland security and counterterrorism planning.) The Israelis infiltrate terrorist groups and pay off members for intelligence. They destroy infrastructure in Gaza as a deterrence. Family members of suspected terrorists are not off-limits. Israel has long utilized assassination against its enemies in Iran and elsewhere. Signal intelligence, shared with and from allies and even Arab countries, is plentiful. Bombing raids and military excursions against Hamas are part of Israel’s counterterrorism mission.
Apparently, none of this picked up, or at least not with enough time, the signs of an attack. Just a few days ago, the Gaza border seemed to have been stabilized after some unrest, and nearly 20,000 workers were able to travel across it again. Today, thousands of rockets, which must have been obtained and hidden, were launched by Hamas. It did not end there. Hamas used drones to strike at Israeli targets. It sent its fighters on foot, by boat, and by air on motorized paragliders. Images have emerged of Hamas attackers on the streets of Israeli towns terrorizing citizens, and worse. This is as much a physical attack as a performative one: Watch us, Hamas seems to be saying. Hamas surely planned for the attack to take place on the Jewish holy day of Simchat Torah and on the 50th anniversary of the Yom Kippur War.
But the intelligence failure is only one piece of what Israel is going to have to reckon with from an operational perspective in the days ahead. It is one thing to not imagine that such an attack could occur. It is another to seemingly not have the defense in place. Israel takes its preparation for such attacks seriously; most citizens are under mandatory conscription. It tests its response and evacuation systems regularly. It recently built an extensive technology wall—including radar, cameras, and sensors—on 65 kilometers of the Gaza barrier. Its emergency-management capabilities are mature. Still, at this writing, Hamas seems to have control over several populated areas in southern Israel. Hamas’s drones seem to have penetrated parts of Israel without reports of counter-drone efforts. Iron Dome, Israel’s famous counter-weapons system, was no match for a multifaceted terror campaign, akin to the 2008 Mumbai attacks in India.
Most systems under persistent attack will eventually fail. Over the course of this century, Israel has been able to stop numerous terror plots, some supported by Iran and some by other countries. It could not do so today, to spectacular effect. Not now, but soon, Israel will have to contend with how, in the modern era, it encountered a massive security failure of a scale not seen since the Yom Kippur War. Finding the answer is Israel’s obligation to itself.
This was a pretty empty article I gotta say.
“Israel has intelligence agencies whose job was to catch something like this. They did not.”
I was hoping for some insight or theories as to why.
The Israeli news is saying that there are tens or dozens of civilians and soldiers taken hostage. That’s absolutely catastrophic. Israel has traded single hostages for hundreds of captured terrorists in the past; if Hamas has captured that many people…
A fair point. I presume this information is not yet available. I’m sure the Rosh Gadol (ראש גדול) will have something to say about it in time, and a thousand theories will come out of the woodwork. The author claims to know a lot about the subject and so could have been slightly more effusive.
There is also footage out there of bomb shelters where people were hiding that were reached by Hamas terrorists who proceeded to massacre everyone inside. Fucking horrifying.
Fucking horrifying sums that up well.
Hamas had better be aware of the political changes in the Middle East. My reading of the situation is that the Arab states are mighty tired of the Palestinian issue, and would like to put it behind them. Also, does this drive Israel even closer to some of the Arab states that see Iran as a threat to themselves as well?
The Palestinians used to be able to count on cover from the international community and the Arab states, and Israel would come under heavy pressure to negotiate a deal. But with Ukraine going on, and Iran and Hamas being on the wrong side of that conflict, I suspect tolerance for Hamas is not what it once was, and Israel may feel it has a free hand to respond however it wants.
This was a bad time for Hamas to do this, for Hamas’ sake.
https://thehill.com/policy/international/4243388-saudi-arabia-qatar-iran-blame-israel-hamas-attacks/
Saudi Arabia and Qatar just came out in support of Hamas
“The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia holds Israel responsible for what has transpired due to its repeated provocations and deprivation of the rights of Palestinians.”