# Hamas vs Fatah: Who Will "Win"? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [June 14, 2007, 8:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hamas-vs-fatah-who-will-win/408034 "2007-06-14T20:01:45Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![ralph124c](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/8797f3/32.png) [@ralph124c](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ralph124c)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2007, 8:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hamas-vs-fatah-who-will-win/408034/1 "2007-06-14T20:01:45Z")
So the palestinians are at it (once again). they seem to be having quite a dust-up. Who will win? and if HAMAS is the winner, will Israel declare war on it? Looka bad! :eek: ---
**Author:** ![50million](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/5/9fc348/32.png) [@50million](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/50million)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2007, 9:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hamas-vs-fatah-who-will-win/408034/2 "2007-06-14T21:33:21Z")
[QUOTE=ralph124c] Who will win? [/QUOTE] Noone. Well, on second thought, maybe weapons manufacturers. ---
**Author:** ![50million](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/5/9fc348/32.png) [@50million](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/50million)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2007, 9:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hamas-vs-fatah-who-will-win/408034/3 "2007-06-14T21:39:52Z")
[QUOTE=50million] Noone. Well, on second thought, maybe weapons manufacturers. [/QUOTE] Wow, 5 minutes goes by faster than I thought. I tried to edit in the following, If Hamas is the last man standing ( I refuse to say “winner” in this situation) then, no, they won’t go to war against Israel. Hamas gets its power from being the underdog, Iran’s pet project. If they acutally go to a fullout war with Israel and get wiped out then they lose big time. Better to stick with the status quo, keep up the terrorist activity, but not an acutal war. Of course, I’m certainly not a Middle East expert, and I’m sure that one will be around quickly to tell me what an assinine theory this is. ---
**Author:** ![Sitnam](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/6a8cbe/32.png) [@Sitnam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sitnam)\ **Post date:** [June 15, 2007, 3:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hamas-vs-fatah-who-will-win/408034/4 "2007-06-15T03:34:05Z")
If Fatah wins the Isrealis will deal and possibly come to some uncomfortable, but workable, peace plan. If Hamas wins this thing is going to drag on, and on, and on…like it has for the last 50 years. So the smart money is on Hamas, but nobody ‘wins’. ---
**Author:** ![Mosier](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/7ea924/32.png) [@Mosier](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mosier)\ **Post date:** [June 15, 2007, 6:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hamas-vs-fatah-who-will-win/408034/5 "2007-06-15T06:00:21Z")
I’m betting on two Palestinian governments for awhile, eventually becoming two separate mini-states, with the Fatah controlled part becoming wealthy and happy, and the Hamas part being ruled by a harsh dictatorship that drives their citizens ever-deeper into poverty. ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_One](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/45deac/32.png) [@Evil\_One](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_One)\ **Post date:** [June 15, 2007, 6:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hamas-vs-fatah-who-will-win/408034/6 "2007-06-15T06:17:03Z")
Israel. ---
**Author:** ![Argent\_Towers](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/e8c25b/32.png) [@Argent\_Towers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Argent_Towers)\ **Post date:** [June 15, 2007, 7:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hamas-vs-fatah-who-will-win/408034/7 "2007-06-15T07:35:48Z")
[QUOTE=Evil One] Israel. [/QUOTE] Heh, I was hoping I would get to be the first to post that! Damn you. ---
**Author:** ![Alessan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alessan/32/465_2.png) [@Alessan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alessan)\ **Post date:** [June 15, 2007, 8:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hamas-vs-fatah-who-will-win/408034/8 "2007-06-15T08:57:08Z")
[QUOTE=Evil One] Israel. [/QUOTE] Right. Because we’re overjoyed to have a radical fundamentalist Islamic state dedicated to our destruction on our border. ---
**Author:** ![tagos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bbe5ce/32.png) [@tagos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tagos)\ **Post date:** [June 15, 2007, 9:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hamas-vs-fatah-who-will-win/408034/9 "2007-06-15T09:24:01Z")
[QUOTE=Alessan] Right. Because we’re overjoyed to have a radical fundamentalist Islamic state dedicated to our destruction on our border. [/QUOTE] Hey - well maybe your govt of the time shouldn’t have supported and resourced them as a counter to the PLO in the first place then. The enemy of my enemy can make a piss-poor long term friend. [Blowback](http://www.upi.com/inc/view.php?StoryID=18062002-051845-8272r) > [@](#): > > Israel and Hamas may currently be locked in deadly combat, but, according to several current and former U.S. intelligence officials, beginning in the late 1970s, Tel Aviv gave direct and indirect financial aid to Hamas over a period of years. > > Israel “aided Hamas directly – the Israelis wanted to use it as a counterbalance to the PLO (Palestinian Liberation Organization),” said Tony Cordesman, Middle East analyst for the Center for Strategic Studies. > > Israel’s support for Hamas “was a direct attempt to divide and dilute support for a strong, secular PLO by using a competing religious alternative,” said a former senior CIA official. I remember reading a TIME article at the beginning of the first intifada about the Israeli Govt building up HAMAS as a counter-weight and thinking that encouraging fundamentalist fanatics didn’t sound like the greatest idea ever. But if the present outcome was desired then it was smart. But the Palestinian people seem to have a gift for self-destruction. ---
**Author:** ![Malodorous](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e47774/32.png) [@Malodorous](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malodorous)\ **Post date:** [June 15, 2007, 12:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hamas-vs-fatah-who-will-win/408034/10 "2007-06-15T12:17:37Z")
[QUOTE=Mosier] I’m betting on two Palestinian governments for awhile, eventually becoming two separate mini-states, with the Fatah controlled part becoming wealthy and happy, and the Hamas part being ruled by a harsh dictatorship that drives their citizens ever-deeper into poverty. [/QUOTE] Fatah has been in control for decades without either wealth or happiness breaking out in Palestine. Which is why Hamas was elected to power in the first place. > [@Evil](#): > > Israel. I don’t see how Israel wins if the Palestinian state is divided. Harder to make peace with two competing factions a single unified gov’t, and so long as their isn’t one political body in charge its easier for the Palestinian gov’t to dodge responsiblity for attacks and the like. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [June 15, 2007, 12:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hamas-vs-fatah-who-will-win/408034/11 "2007-06-15T12:37:02Z")
Bibi. The uncontrollable gang warfare going on between Hamas and Fatah, along with Olmert’s incompentance, has left him, and his reactionary hardline mantras, the likely next leader of Israel. But of course everyone loses. ---
**Author:** ![tagos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bbe5ce/32.png) [@tagos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tagos)\ **Post date:** [June 15, 2007, 1:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hamas-vs-fatah-who-will-win/408034/12 "2007-06-15T13:01:44Z")
[QUOTE=Malodorous] Fatah has been in control for decades without either wealth or happiness breaking out in Palestine. Which is why Hamas was elected to power in the first place. I don’t see how Israel wins if the Palestinian state is divided. Harder to make peace with two competing factions a single unified gov’t, and so long as their isn’t one political body in charge its easier for the Palestinian gov’t to dodge responsibility for attacks and the like. [/QUOTE] I don’t think elements in the Israeli state want peace with a stable and independent Palestinian state. There’s the Greater Israel crowd for starters. It takes any drawback from the West Bank off the table, it justifies the bantustanisation of the West Bank with settlements, roads and check points and keeps open the option for more territorial profiting out of the chaos, maybe even the complete annexation of the territory. And then there are [The Christian Zionists](http://www.csmonitor.com/2004/0707/p15s01-lire.html) > [@](#): > > For Christian Zionists, the modern state of Israel is the fulfillment of God’s covenant with Abraham and the center of His action from now to the Second Coming of Christ and final battle of Armageddon, when the Antichrist will be defeated. But before this can occur, they say, biblical prophecy foretells the return of Jews from other countries; Israel’s possession of all the land between the Euphrates and Nile rivers; and the rebuilding of the Jewish temple where a Muslim site, Dome of the Rock, now stands. > > These beliefs lead to positions that critics say are uncompromising and ignore the fact that most Israelis want peace. “Pressuring the US government away from peace negotiations and toward an annexationist policy, that has a direct negative impact on the potential for change in the Middle East,” says Gershom Gorenberg, a senior editor at The Jerusalem Report newsmagazine. > > Two former chief rabbis of Israel, Avraham Shapira and Mordechai Eliahu, recently approved a ruling urging followers not to accept money from the groups, warning that their ultimate intent is conversion of Jews. (Christian Zionists believe that during the Last Days Jews must either accept Jesus as the Messiah or perish.) I’m sure most Israeli’s do want a just and equitable peace. But they just vote. It’s what power holders, internal and external (including Palestinian factions and US interests), try and do within the confines of context and circumstance that drive events. Like in any democracy. But like I said - the Palestinian people have a particular gift for Self-Inflicted Wounds and don’t seem to need much encouragement to start enthusiastically blasting away at their own feet. ---
**Author:** ![smiling\_bandit](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e9a140/32.png) [@smiling\_bandit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/smiling_bandit)\ **Post date:** [June 15, 2007, 1:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hamas-vs-fatah-who-will-win/408034/13 "2007-06-15T13:08:34Z")
Hamas will almost certainly win in Gaza, but probably not the West Bank. Fatah may well oust Abbas after ihs poor performance. Ironically, this probably _will_ make tings easier for Israel. While hamas is undeniably evil through and through, their idiocy in clearing out Fatah from Gaza will only get them in trouble. Israel can simply close off the entire area at any time. If Hamas attacks, Israel can crush them bit by bit. There’s a non-trivial chance they’ll simply evict the entire population, minus weapons. Not nice, but better than enduring even more rockets randomly exploding. Fatah may calm down after this dust-up. They’ve been heartily embarassed recently and may have lost their fighting edge. ---
**Author:** ![ralph124c](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/8797f3/32.png) [@ralph124c](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ralph124c)\ **Post date:** [June 15, 2007, 1:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hamas-vs-fatah-who-will-win/408034/14 "2007-06-15T13:23:13Z")
What I would like to know: where has the BILLIONS of given to the Palestinian Government (by the USA and the EU) gone? I saw the new police station (paid for by the US taxpayers) already trashed-and the police vehicles (already destroyed). I know Arafat's wife got several million -but where is all of this money going? there seems to be no demonstrable benefit of funding the PA-except if you count violence as a benefit. ---
**Author:** ![tagos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bbe5ce/32.png) [@tagos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tagos)\ **Post date:** [June 15, 2007, 1:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hamas-vs-fatah-who-will-win/408034/15 "2007-06-15T13:32:15Z")
[QUOTE=ralph124c] What I would like to know: where has the BILLIONS of given to the Palestinian Government (by the USA and the EU) gone? I saw the new police station (paid for by the US taxpayers) already trashed-and the police vehicles (already destroyed). I know Arafat's wife got several million -but where is all of this money going? there seems to be no demonstrable benefit of funding the PA-except if you count violence as a benefit. [/QUOTE] Bear in mind the Israeli army and air force regularly blew up the infrastructure built with aid. Police stations and the like. And funding generally dried up from the big donors when we decided we didn’t like the results of a free election. And aid goes into intangibles like feeding refugees. [Aid Crisis](http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/3788565.stm) > [@](#): > > Some donor countries have been frustrated to see their aid projects being destroyed by the conflict, the BBC’s Imogen Foulkes reports from Geneva. > > Sweden’s representative at the conference, Thomas Hammarberg, said they did not want to throw good money after bad. And then, like you say - there is the [corruption and mismanagement](http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/in_depth/middle_east/2001/israel_and_the_palestinians/issues/1627755.stm) > [@](#): > > In 1997, a much-quoted Palestinian parliamentary committee report found that nearly 40% of the PA’s $800m annual budget, much of it coming from foreign aid donations, had been squandered through corruption and mismanagement. Although it is all dwarfed by the corruption and mismanagement of Iraq aid. ---
**Author:** ![Sitnam](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/6a8cbe/32.png) [@Sitnam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sitnam)\ **Post date:** [June 15, 2007, 1:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hamas-vs-fatah-who-will-win/408034/16 "2007-06-15T13:55:11Z")
[QUOTE=tagos] …And funding generally dried up from the big donors when we decided we didn’t like the results of a free election. And aid goes into intangibles like feeding refugees.. [/QUOTE] Its a nations prerogative to ‘give’ money to whatever government it wants. It labels Hamas terrorists (and who’s going to deny otherwise) and doesn’t feel the need to fund them…I feel no guilt, free elections or not. The Gaza Strip is a freaking beach, it produces nothing, so has nothing to lose by fighting, supplying a nation with nothing to lose perpetuates conflict amongst two groups that have no financial base and have only whatever they are given. And Iran will continue to supply Hamas. We should only supply Fatah, and turn this away from a religious thing. ---
**Author:** ![smiling\_bandit](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e9a140/32.png) [@smiling\_bandit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/smiling_bandit)\ **Post date:** [June 15, 2007, 2:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hamas-vs-fatah-who-will-win/408034/17 "2007-06-15T14:21:49Z")
Well, half the point of pushing for elections was to bring out this result. It wasn’t ideal, but better than the farce which had been going on. ---
**Author:** ![tagos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bbe5ce/32.png) [@tagos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tagos)\ **Post date:** [June 15, 2007, 2:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hamas-vs-fatah-who-will-win/408034/18 "2007-06-15T14:25:14Z")
[QUOTE=Sitnam] Its a nations prerogative to ‘give’ money to whatever government it wants. It labels Hamas terrorists (and who’s going to deny otherwise) and doesn’t feel the need to fund them…I feel no guilt, free elections or not. The Gaza Strip is a freaking beach, it produces nothing, so has nothing to lose by fighting, supplying a nation with nothing to lose perpetuates conflict amongst two groups that have no financial base and have only whatever they are given. And Iran will continue to supply Hamas. We should only supply Fatah, and turn this away from a religious thing. [/QUOTE] It depends whether you want to help solve a problem or not. Isolating Hamas and waging economic warfare on it was bound to strengthen the radical elements influence against those who wanted a more pragmatic approach in the political wing. If I were Israel I would have explored the offer of a generation long ceasefire and in that breathing space negotiated precisely what Israel the Palestinians were being asked to recognise because to be fair - they were being asked to recognise an Israel whose borders had not been defined and one that was busy provocatively annexing even more land with the security barrier. Instead we boycott and undermine the national unity government and compound the mistake by arming Fatah and thereby labelling them as stooges. We engage with people we don’t like all the time in order to reach mutually acceptable solutions to practical problems. It’s called diplomacy. ---
**Author:** ![mswas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e99b99/32.png) [@mswas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mswas)\ **Post date:** [June 15, 2007, 2:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hamas-vs-fatah-who-will-win/408034/19 "2007-06-15T14:26:08Z")
**Hamas** had the legitimate mandate in the elections. Hamas is better organized and has better grass roots support. Fatah has more political capital internationally. I think Hamas will win until the Israelis get involved, which they no doubt will. ---
**Author:** ![mswas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e99b99/32.png) [@mswas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mswas)\ **Post date:** [June 15, 2007, 2:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hamas-vs-fatah-who-will-win/408034/20 "2007-06-15T14:29:14Z")
[QUOTE=Mosier] I’m betting on two Palestinian governments for awhile, eventually becoming two separate mini-states, with the Fatah controlled part becoming wealthy and happy, and the Hamas part being ruled by a harsh dictatorship that drives their citizens ever-deeper into poverty. [/QUOTE] Hamas was elected because they had a better grass-roots support due to the fact that they were busy building infrastructure while Arafat was out capitalizing and courting world opinion. Hamas won’t necessarily drive them into poverty, but Israel might because Israel can control revenue. Hamas generally does more directly for the Palestinian people than Fatah. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hamas-vs-fatah-who-will-win/408034.md?page=2)