# Hamilton won best musical - most certain award ever? **URL:** \ **Category:** Cafe Society\ **Created:** [June 13, 2016, 6:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hamilton-won-best-musical-most-certain-award-ever/757274 "2016-06-13T18:23:38Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 17\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![MaxTheVool](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/9fc29f/32.png) [@MaxTheVool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MaxTheVool)\ **Post date:** [June 13, 2016, 6:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hamilton-won-best-musical-most-certain-award-ever/757274/1 "2016-06-13T18:23:38Z")
Hamilton, as expected, won the Tony for Best Musical. This was not surprising. In fact, this was the most absolute mortal lock I can remember ever being aware of in any of the major US awards shows. One website I found had the odds listed as 1/100, meaning that if you were betting money, you could bet $100, and if you were right, get back your $100 plus another $1. (Not sure if they were actually taking bets or just listing odds.) Has there ever been an equivalently sure thing in a prominent category at a major awards show? ---
**Author:** ![ChockFullOfHeadyGoodness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chockfullofheadygoodness/32/511_2.png) [@ChockFullOfHeadyGoodness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ChockFullOfHeadyGoodness)\ **Post date:** [June 13, 2016, 6:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hamilton-won-best-musical-most-certain-award-ever/757274/2 "2016-06-13T18:29:47Z")
> [@MaxTheVool](#): > > Hamilton, as expected, won the Tony for Best Musical. This was not surprising. In fact, this was the most absolute mortal lock I can remember ever being aware of in any of the major US awards shows. \ > > Has there ever been an equivalently sure thing in a prominent category at a major awards show? The only thing that comes close in my memory was \*\*Thriller \*\*winning the Grammy for Album of the Year in 1984. Nothing else stood a chance. Even the Oscar for Titanic winning Best Picture had some doubters. ---
**Author:** ![Loach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/loach/32/350_2.png) [@Loach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Loach)\ **Post date:** [June 13, 2016, 6:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hamilton-won-best-musical-most-certain-award-ever/757274/3 "2016-06-13T18:34:45Z")
I don’t know what the odds were but The Book of Mormon was a pretty good lock. As was The Producers which still has the record for most wins. ---
**Author:** ![mcgato](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/ac8455/32.png) [@mcgato](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mcgato)\ **Post date:** [June 13, 2016, 6:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hamilton-won-best-musical-most-certain-award-ever/757274/4 "2016-06-13T18:57:04Z")
As I recall, Heath Ledger was pretty certain to be awarded the Oscar for The Dark Knight back in 2008. I found an article that the betting line was 1-50 odds. Bet 50 to win 1. ---
**Author:** ![Annie-Xmas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ecc23a/32.png) [@Annie-Xmas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Annie-Xmas)\ **Post date:** [June 13, 2016, 7:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hamilton-won-best-musical-most-certain-award-ever/757274/5 "2016-06-13T19:42:05Z")
The Book of Mormon was a shoo-in for Best Musical. ---
**Author:** ![RealityChuck](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/realitychuck/32/195_2.png) [@RealityChuck](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RealityChuck)\ **Post date:** [June 13, 2016, 8:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hamilton-won-best-musical-most-certain-award-ever/757274/6 "2016-06-13T20:09:39Z")
_Sunset Boulevard_ was an absolute lock, as was Glenn Close. They were both competing against just one other nominee. The best musical competitor was a revue, and revues don’t win Best Musical Tonys. They even had to justify it at the ceremony (“Well, we know the field is sparse, but _Sunset Boulevard_ would have been a winner other years, too.”) ---
**Author:** ![Telemark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/telemark/32/372_2.png) [@Telemark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Telemark)\ **Post date:** [June 13, 2016, 8:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hamilton-won-best-musical-most-certain-award-ever/757274/7 "2016-06-13T20:14:54Z")
> [@Loach](#): > > As was The Producers which still has the record for most wins. This was my thought as well It was a certain lock, dominating the Tonys that year. ---
**Author:** ![That\_Don\_Guy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/that_don_guy/32/538_2.png) [@That\_Don\_Guy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/That_Don_Guy)\ **Post date:** [June 13, 2016, 8:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hamilton-won-best-musical-most-certain-award-ever/757274/8 "2016-06-13T20:27:39Z")
Online casinos can take bets on things like the Tonys. In fact, Nevada casinos can do so as well, if they want to jump through the hoops necessary (and, except for the Oscars and maybe the Emmys, I doubt that any would). As for “dead certs,” quite a few Best Musicals were “locks” - A Chorus Line, Annie, Cats, Les Miserables, and Phantom of the Opera come to mind. ---
**Author:** ![HubZilla](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/ccd318/32.png) [@HubZilla](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HubZilla)\ **Post date:** [June 13, 2016, 8:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hamilton-won-best-musical-most-certain-award-ever/757274/9 "2016-06-13T20:32:18Z")
> [@mcgato](#): > > As I recall, Heath Ledger was pretty certain to be awarded the Oscar for The Dark Knight back in 2008. I found an article that the betting line was 1-50 odds. Bet 50 to win 1. I think **Return of the King** was all but a sure thing too: a reward for the Lord of the Rings trilogy of movies. It won something like 11 Oscars, I bet most people were just checking down the boxes. ---
**Author:** ![Derleth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b9e5f3/32.png) [@Derleth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Derleth)\ **Post date:** [June 13, 2016, 8:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hamilton-won-best-musical-most-certain-award-ever/757274/10 "2016-06-13T20:39:47Z")
> [@MaxTheVool](#): > > Has there ever been an equivalently sure thing in a prominent category at a major awards show? _Schindler’s List_ for Best Picture has to be close, going by the subject matter, the fact Spielberg was a known award-winner at the time, and the relative sparsity of the field that year. ---
**Author:** ![MovieMogul](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f08c70/32.png) [@MovieMogul](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MovieMogul)\ **Post date:** [June 13, 2016, 8:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hamilton-won-best-musical-most-certain-award-ever/757274/11 "2016-06-13T20:57:25Z")
> [@Derleth](#): > > _Schindler’s List_ for Best Picture has to be close, going by the subject matter, the fact Spielberg was a known award-winner at the time, and the relative sparsity of the field that year. Actually, at the time, Spielberg had never won an Oscar (though nominated quite a few times), so this was an even more compelling reason to finally give him one, now that he had gotten “arty” (B&W), “important” (Holocaust) and “serious” (non-fantasy). ---
**Author:** ![Thudlow\_Boink](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thudlow_boink/32/320_2.png) [@Thudlow\_Boink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thudlow_Boink)\ **Post date:** [June 13, 2016, 9:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hamilton-won-best-musical-most-certain-award-ever/757274/12 "2016-06-13T21:01:50Z")
> [@HubZilla](#): > > I think **Return of the King** was all but a sure thing too Really? I don’t remember people talking about it as “sure to win” at the time; and it’s not really the type of movie that is considered Oscar-bait. ---
**Author:** ![Telemark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/telemark/32/372_2.png) [@Telemark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Telemark)\ **Post date:** [June 13, 2016, 9:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hamilton-won-best-musical-most-certain-award-ever/757274/13 "2016-06-13T21:07:23Z")
How about Marisa Tomei for “My Cousin Vinny”? 😃 ---
**Author:** ![amarinth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/3be4f8/32.png) [@amarinth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/amarinth)\ **Post date:** [June 13, 2016, 9:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hamilton-won-best-musical-most-certain-award-ever/757274/14 "2016-06-13T21:08:57Z")
Titanic, maybe? Emmy Awards tend to be very predictable. Voters tend to vote for certain types of programs and they tend to repeat themselves (if you’ve been nominated for an Emmy, chances are high you’ll be nominated again. if you’ve won an Emmy, chances are really high that you’ll win again). There are not a lot of surprises on Emmy night. But in particular and recently - the final season of Breaking Bad was a lock for Outstanding Drama, Brian Cranston for Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series, and Aaron Paul as Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series. ---
**Author:** ![RealityChuck](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/realitychuck/32/195_2.png) [@RealityChuck](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RealityChuck)\ **Post date:** [June 13, 2016, 11:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hamilton-won-best-musical-most-certain-award-ever/757274/15 "2016-06-13T23:50:52Z")
Back in the 30s, the Oscar winners were all fixed to some degree. The studios would get together to decide on who would get the awards that year. Then they’d tell their employees what to vote for. ---
**Author:** ![Eyebrows\_0f\_Doom](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eyebrows_0f_doom/32/3119_2.png) [@Eyebrows\_0f\_Doom](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Eyebrows_0f_Doom)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2016, 4:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hamilton-won-best-musical-most-certain-award-ever/757274/16 "2016-06-14T04:42:47Z")
> [@Thudlow\_Boink](#): > > Really? I don’t remember people talking about it as “sure to win” at the time; and it’s not really the type of movie that is considered Oscar-bait. Yes. It was no surprise to anyone who follows the Oscars that ROTK would win. It was probably the biggest Best Picture lock in recent memory. ---
**Author:** ![Jim\_s\_Son](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/e19adc/32.png) [@Jim\_s\_Son](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jim_s_Son)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2016, 4:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hamilton-won-best-musical-most-certain-award-ever/757274/17 "2016-06-14T16:08:33Z")
I remember someone once saying that before the 1959 Academy Award that it wasn’t any suspense for best actress: Susan Hayward was a lock for “I Want To Live”.