Other than Prohibition, I don’t know of any other situation in which an item/service/behavior was completely banned, and it lead to an increase of that item/service/behavior.
Reasonable people can agree that there will never be 100% compliance of any ban, because its simply too hard to do. But to get close to it, or simply to move towards its elimination without completely succeeding, is not a failure.
If handguns are banned, and of course the first thing to do would be to outlaw it in every jurisdiction, with no exceptions except to law-enforcement officers (I’d limit it to police and military), it would decrease the number of guns, period. There’s no reason that it would lead to an explosion of handguns if suddenly overnight it’s a lot more difficult to get them. I think that’s a logical conclusion to assume.
I wouldn’t worry about illegal trafficking. Sure, I’d toughen up whatever measures we have in place, but I expect we’ll always miss some coming over the border, and that’s ok, because ultimately by making it harder to get guns and jailing the people who do it leads to a better result than openly allowing it.
I don’t expect or hope that the hundreds of millions of handguns out there will simply be turned in, but if one cannot use it openly for defense anymore, then a hidden gun is almost as good as no gun at all. Right now, most people don’t fear their guns being confiscated. They use it for personal or home defense, for hunting and shooting, etc. But if it became the law overnight that you cannot use it for these things, people aren’t suddenly going to pretend like the law doesn’t exist and use it for defense. They’ll be more careful about using it knowing that if a criminal is shot in the course of a robbery or something, the police is going to arrest the homeowner as well as the robber for gun possession.
I also don’t think this can be done immediately, it must be done incrementally. Including the massive PR campaign, the government should emphasize in schools as early as possible how guns aren’t part of your natural rights and that its not a big deal if you don’t have it. Just as civil rights, women’s rights, or gay marriage wasn’t won overnight, we’ll need more of a generational shift.
Incremental incursions are also preferable. Basically, make the nightmare of the NRA come true by banning parts of guns here and there, slowly, then moving on to more restrictions.
I really don’t see why practicality enters into the equation at all though. I get that it is the belief, and probably rightly so, that people here in the US love their guns so much and have a pretty visceral reaction to being disarmed that it would be difficult to get rid of handguns, but if we’re discussing how a law could be implemented, then that sort of concern isn’t something that needs to be addressed. The issue, I think, is how it would work. Not if you think it could work. If one is just going to assume that through some kind of popular uprising gun rights will always be preserved by the people, I could simply counter and say that the government would just send the military after people who won’t comply if the police isn’t up to the task
And please, no accusations of authoritarian fascist BS by that last remark. Its perfectly fine to use the military to help out law enforcement if regular law enforcement can’t do the job. Lets stick to the debate here, k?