# Handicap the Democrats next 11 days **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [January 25, 2008, 6:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-democrats-next-11-days/434987 "2008-01-25T18:08:48Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 12
**Author:** ![Shayna](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shayna/32/17976_2.png) [@Shayna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shayna)\ **Post date:** [February 4, 2008, 10:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-democrats-next-11-days/434987/221 "2008-02-04T22:52:43Z")
Two more: > [@](#): > > [Two Senior California Democrats Endorse Obama](http://www.webwire.com/ViewPressRel.asp?aId=58304) > > Monday, February 04, 2008 > > San Jose, CA - On the eve the California Democratic primary, two longtime office holders and recognized civic and political leaders who have been deeply involved in California and national affairs for nearly a half a century, have endorsed Senator Barack Obama for President. > > Below is the joint statement of Hon. Norman Y. Mineta, Member of Congress (D-San Jose;1975-1995), US Secretary of Commerce (2000-2001), and US Secretary of Transportation (2001-2006) and Hon. Don Edwards, a Member of Congress (D-San Jose 1963-1995 ). For those not familiar, Norm Mineta served as the Commerce Secretary in Bill Clinton’s cabinet. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [February 4, 2008, 11:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-democrats-next-11-days/434987/222 "2008-02-04T23:37:22Z")
With it this close I’m predicting an Obama victory on all counts (state numbers, overall popular vote, and delegate count). His base is revved and will come out in numbers. Hers is not so excited. Turn out is key. The tear in the eye trick worked once; it won’t a second time. Of course even Obama staying within 50 or so on the delegate count and picking up some states outright would place him well to take it the rest of the way. ---
**Author:** ![Damuri\_Ajashi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/898d66/32.png) [@Damuri\_Ajashi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Damuri_Ajashi)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2008, 2:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-democrats-next-11-days/434987/223 "2008-02-05T02:04:50Z")
[QUOTE=spoke-] Obama has [strong support among young voters](http://www.salon.com/news/feature/2008/02/02/youth_vote_2008/). I believe Obama is going to win, but if he doesn’t, I’m concerned that a Hillary victory might turn a lot of these youthful optimists into cynics. I don’t think these voters would turn out for Hillary in the fall. [/QUOTE] We would all have to get temporary amnesia and Obama wold have to give a very stirring speech endorsing the Clintons. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2008, 2:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-democrats-next-11-days/434987/224 "2008-02-05T02:17:38Z")
My thinking up until a few days ago was that they were just about neck-and-neck, with Clinton having the inside track. But right now I think Obama will come away the winner tomorrow - I don’t know enough of the state-by-state numbers to make any specific guesses, but I’d say he will come out ahead by a little more than people expect, a definite win. He’ll open up a bigger lead in the following weeks and seal the nomination. ---
**Author:** ![Damuri\_Ajashi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/898d66/32.png) [@Damuri\_Ajashi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Damuri_Ajashi)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2008, 2:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-democrats-next-11-days/434987/225 "2008-02-05T02:48:36Z")
[QUOTE=Marley23] My thinking up until a few days ago was that they were just about neck-and-neck, with Clinton having the inside track. But right now I think Obama will come away the winner tomorrow - I don’t know enough of the state-by-state numbers to make any specific guesses, but I’d say he will come out ahead by a little more than people expect, a definite win. He’ll open up a bigger lead in the following weeks and seal the nomination. [/QUOTE] I don’t think even the Pbama camp expects to walk away with an objective win tomorrow. They are looking for a symbolic victory. They just hope to stay within a couple of hundred delegates and to win a few red states, actually they’re kinda depending on it. ---
**Author:** ![Emilee](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/cab0a1/32.png) [@Emilee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Emilee)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2008, 2:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-democrats-next-11-days/434987/226 "2008-02-05T02:56:54Z")
[QUOTE=Phlosphr] I’ll be at the Hartford Civic Center tonight [hopefully] to see Obama at 5:30 EST. [/QUOTE] I was at the Hartford Civic Center! It was amazing. I was blown away by the diversity of the crowd that attended. Black, white, young, old, urban, suburban, rural… everyone. It was one of the best cross-sections of Connecticut that I’ve ever seen. And the ENERGY! It was electric. People were so happy to be there, and the Civic Center was packed. Hillary and Obama both did events in CT today. Hillary did a small “round table” at Yale, Obama packed an arena. That says something. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2008, 1:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-democrats-next-11-days/434987/227 "2008-02-05T13:38:08Z")
[QUOTE=Damuri Ajashi] I don’t think even the Pbama camp expects to walk away with an objective win tomorrow. They are looking for a symbolic victory. They just hope to stay within a couple of hundred delegates and to win a few red states, actually they’re kinda depending on it. [/QUOTE] I disagree. He can only keep “gaining momentum” for so long. Maybe they will spin a close loss in a positive way, but he needs to win stuff. A symbolic victory won’t count for much if Clinton has the most delegates and the perception that she won. ---
**Author:** ![Phlosphr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c68b51/32.png) [@Phlosphr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Phlosphr)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2008, 1:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-democrats-next-11-days/434987/228 "2008-02-05T13:45:50Z")
[QUOTE=Emilee] I was at the Hartford Civic Center! It was amazing. I was blown away by the diversity of the crowd that attended. Black, white, young, old, urban, suburban, rural… everyone. It was one of the best cross-sections of Connecticut that I’ve ever seen. And the ENERGY! It was electric. People were so happy to be there, and the Civic Center was packed. Hillary and Obama both did events in CT today. Hillary did a small “round table” at Yale, Obama packed an arena. That says something. [/QUOTE] Absolutely with out a doubt say’s something. Hillary had a small round table at a school that is overwhelmingly for Obama - odd I know but Yale student Union endorses Obama - Obama packed the Hartford Civic Center to capacity. Hell the Whalers didn’t even do that when they were playing in Hartford! If Connecticut is the “weather-bell” everyone says it is, last night is a testament to what is to come all over the country. People want new change and Obama represents that to a vast majority of people. The young people of the country are finally standing up for what they believe and are backing a man like no other in my recent memory. I’m in my mid-30’s and I have not felt as strongly about a race before as I do for this one. I want the phrase, ‘Proud to be an American’ to mean something again, GWB has tainted the pool in my opinion and I think we need to augment our image to the rest of the world that we are a powerful nation of change. Barrack Obama represents this change to me and to tens of thousands of other people across the nation. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2008, 6:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-democrats-next-11-days/434987/229 "2008-02-05T18:25:00Z")
[QUOTE=Marley23] I disagree. He can only keep “gaining momentum” for so long. Maybe they will spin a close loss in a positive way, but he needs to win stuff. A symbolic victory won’t count for much if Clinton has the most delegates and the perception that she won. [/QUOTE] I think you’re countering one ‘perception/momentum’ argument with another - the notion that a fairly modest victory by Clinton tonight will change the dynamic of the race by making her the favorite in the primaries further down the road. It’s really about delegates now. Both candidates are going to win stuff today, but it’s generally conceded that today’s primaries and caucuses are being fought on ground that, overall, favors Clinton, while the primaries and caucuses between tomorrow and March 11 favor Obama. Therefore, an argument that Obama needs to win tonight, rather than merely keep it close, is a momentum/perception argument, because the underlying assumption is that if he doesn’t win tonight, his advantages down the road will be negated. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2008, 7:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-democrats-next-11-days/434987/230 "2008-02-05T19:07:01Z")
[QUOTE=RTFirefly] I think you’re countering one ‘perception/momentum’ argument with another - the notion that a fairly modest victory by Clinton tonight will change the dynamic of the race by making her the favorite in the primaries further down the road. [/quote] I didn’t think it would change the dynamic, I think a fairly modest victory would keep things right where they are. The idea that the later primaries favor Obama is interesting, I just hadn’t heard it before. Why is that? Because of the states that vote over the next few weeks? ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2008, 7:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-democrats-next-11-days/434987/231 "2008-02-05T19:08:24Z")
[QUOTE=Marley23] Because of the states that vote over the next few weeks? [/QUOTE] The particular states and because he’ll be able to focus on them individually, so he neutralizes name recognition and emphasizes his strength: grassroots organization and direct contact. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2008, 9:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-democrats-next-11-days/434987/232 "2008-02-05T21:46:27Z")
Interesting. We’ll see how it breaks down. Meanwhile, I was surprised to see this item on CNN’s ticker: apparently the Clinton camp wants more debates against Obama. Isn’t conventional wisdom that the underdog usually wants more debates? Obviously they feel those suit her strengths, but still. I should add that this thing is worded vaguely. It says they are “calling for one debate a week” and then says they have already accepted the invitations. Maybe I am missing something. and they are talking about town hall meetings. [http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/02/05/clinton-camp-calls-for-one-debate-a-week/](http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/02/05/clinton-camp-calls-for-one-debate-a-week/) ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2008, 9:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-democrats-next-11-days/434987/233 "2008-02-05T21:47:52Z")
Obama! Because this time, the youth vote will make the difference! I know, they punked out on us last time…and the time before that…but \*this \* time!.. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2008, 10:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-democrats-next-11-days/434987/234 "2008-02-05T22:03:30Z")
[QUOTE=Marley23] Meanwhile, I was surprised to see this item on CNN’s ticker: apparently the Clinton camp wants more debates against Obama. Isn’t conventional wisdom that the underdog usually wants more debates? Obviously they feel those suit her strengths, but still. [/QUOTE] Hillary comes across reasonably well in those debates. Obama does OK too, but he’s way better at speeches than at debates. If I were Obama’s campaign manager, I’d want him spending more time speaking to crowds, and less time in debates, or preparing for them - especially in the next five weeks, when he’ll be able to spend significant time in each of the post-2/5, pre-gap\* primary/caucus states. (BTW, what **Richard Parker** said, in response to your earlier question.) \*As incredible as it may seem, there are [no primaries or caucuses scheduled between](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Party_%28United_States%29_presidential_primaries%2C_2008#March) the Mississippi primary on March 11 and the Pennsylvania primary on April 22. Political junkies like me may have to check into the Betty Ford clinic for a few weeks. ---
**Author:** ![Squink](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5e925/32.png) [@Squink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Squink)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2008, 10:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-democrats-next-11-days/434987/235 "2008-02-05T22:22:05Z")
[QUOTE=elucidator] Obama! Because this time, the youth vote will make the difference! I know, they punked out on us last time…and the time before that…but \*this \* time!.. [/QUOTE] That’s a tad long. How about **“YOUTH. Now More Than Ever!”**? ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2008, 10:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-democrats-next-11-days/434987/236 "2008-02-05T22:27:24Z")
[QUOTE=elucidator] Obama! Because this time, the youth vote will make the difference! I know, they punked out on us last time…and the time before that…but \*this \* time!.. [/QUOTE] Actually, the youth vote was better than expected in 2004 and 2006. And _way_ better than expected during the Dem primaries this year. [2004 (PDF)](http://www.civicyouth.org/PopUps/Release_Turnout2004.pdf): > [@](#): > > At least 20.9 million Americans under the age of 30 voted in 2004, an increase of 4.6 million over 2000,1 and the turnout rate among these voters rose from about 42.3% to 51.6%, a sharp rise of 9.3 percentage points, according to final national exit polls and an early tally of votes cast. Youth voter turnout was especially high in the contested battleground states. [2006 (PDF)](http://www.civicyouth.org/PopUps/PR_midterm_06.pdf): > [@](#): > > Washington, DC – An estimated ten million young Americans under the age of 30 voted in Tuesday’s midterm elections, an increase of at least two million compared to 2002, according to exit polls and early published tallies of votes that are likely to increase as additional precincts and ballots are included… > > The estimated youth turnout rate or percentage of young eligible voters who cast votes also jumped from 20% in 2002 to at least 24% in 2006, an increase of at least four percentage points. Voters under the age of 30 accounted for 13% of all voters, which is an increase of about 2 points compared to the 2002 midterm elections. And even better, from our POV: > [@](#): > > Nationwide, in House races, 61% of young people voted for Democratic candidates — the highest proportion for any age group. [2008](http://futuremajority.com/node/930): > [@](#): > > South Carolina: Youth Turnout Triples. Again. Continuing on: > [@](#): > > According to CIRCLE, 74,245 young voters went to the polls, 19 percent of eligible young voters. In 2004, only 26,181 voters aged 18 to 29 participated. As a share of the electorate, young voters made up 14 percent of the electorate, an increase of 5 percent over the previous cycle. That was the Dem primary. On the GOP side, OTOH: > [@](#): > > Only 44,320 young voters participated in the Republican primary held last week, and they made up only 10 percent of the Republican electorate. Too bad, so sad. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2008, 12:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-democrats-next-11-days/434987/237 "2008-02-06T00:03:08Z")
NPR: Polls just closed in Georgia, exit polls show Obama winning. ---
**Author:** ![RedFury](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ec9cab/32.png) [@RedFury](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RedFury)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2008, 12:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-democrats-next-11-days/434987/238 "2008-02-06T00:11:18Z")
By George! (certainly not the current one) hope lies ahead and the US just might make an 180% turn and join the rest of the civilized World. GoBama! Certainly the most hopeful candidate – in all ways – in decades in US Politics. Wishing you all the best to do the Right Thing. ---
**Author:** ![Shayna](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shayna/32/17976_2.png) [@Shayna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shayna)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2008, 12:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-democrats-next-11-days/434987/239 "2008-02-06T00:31:27Z")
[QUOTE=BrainGlutton] NPR: Polls just closed in Georgia, exit polls show Obama winning. [/QUOTE] Not only are they projecting a win in Georgia, they’re projecting a _ **wholloping** _! > [@](#): > > [Clinton Wins Delegate-Rich States; Obama Takes Most States - ABC News](http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/Vote2008/story?id=4243619&page=1) > > In the first win of what is expected to be a long night, Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., defeated Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., in Georgia, a key Southern state, **winning 86 percent support to Clinton’s 13 percent** , according to preliminary exit poll results. ---
**Author:** ![Harborwolf](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/c89c15/32.png) [@Harborwolf](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Harborwolf)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2008, 12:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-democrats-next-11-days/434987/240 "2008-02-06T00:35:54Z")
[QUOTE=Shayna] Not only are they projecting a win in Georgia, they’re projecting a _ **wholloping** _! [/QUOTE] [CNN.com](http://CNN.com) has the gap closed 64% to 30%. A big win but tighter than they were and apparently shrinking as it was 66% to 28%. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-democrats-next-11-days/434987.md?page=11) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-democrats-next-11-days/434987.md?page=13)