# Handicap the Democrats next 11 days **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [January 25, 2008, 6:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-democrats-next-11-days/434987 "2008-01-25T18:08:48Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![JohnnieEnigma](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/dfb087/32.png) [@JohnnieEnigma](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnnieEnigma)\ **Post date:** [January 27, 2008, 4:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-democrats-next-11-days/434987/61 "2008-01-27T16:11:41Z")
[QUOTE=Anduril] Obama played the race card to the hilt. There’s enough blame to pass around with Obama getting the lion’s share, IMO. I could provide cites when pressed. [/QUOTE] I’ll have to press you for those cites. I’m willing to bet good money that anything you come up with would have been a response to something Hillary prevoked. It’s just not his style to play the race card. No way. ---
**Author:** ![Anduril](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/c0e974/32.png) [@Anduril](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Anduril)\ **Post date:** [January 27, 2008, 4:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-democrats-next-11-days/434987/62 "2008-01-27T16:24:13Z")
The one that comes to mind is: race-baiting: The delay he took in stamping down the canard about Bill Clinton and Hillary Clinton’s comments’ being racist (most from his surrogates or supporters). He said nothing for 10 days, conveniently stamping it down after the polls have been released. playing the race card: He speaks the same phrases that malcolm x would use and use the same rhetoric. "They bamboozled you… I’ll get the cites. ---
**Author:** ![wonky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wonky/32/393_2.png) [@wonky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wonky)\ **Post date:** [January 27, 2008, 4:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-democrats-next-11-days/434987/63 "2008-01-27T16:33:26Z")
[QUOTE=Anduril] Because it’s the most significant portion of his support and any changes to it will change the narrative. He did not perform appreciably well in the other demographics enough to change the narrative, too. [/QUOTE] Except that he performed fine in the other demographics, so you constantly saying he didn’t improve on the black vote from Nevada seems to be leaving out a really big chunk of “the narrative.” ---
**Author:** ![Anduril](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/c0e974/32.png) [@Anduril](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Anduril)\ **Post date:** [January 27, 2008, 4:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-democrats-next-11-days/434987/64 "2008-01-27T16:38:22Z")
[QUOTE=jsgoddess] Except that he performed fine in the other demographics, so you constantly saying he didn’t improve on the black vote from Nevada seems to be leaving out a really big chunk of “the narrative.” [/QUOTE] The only time that it will change the narrative is if he performs very well on any one demographic that hasn’t been seen in the past. He hasn’t done this. The reason I point to the AA vote is that it’s the largest chunk and it could have been a shutout for Clinton. ---
**Author:** ![Phlosphr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c68b51/32.png) [@Phlosphr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Phlosphr)\ **Post date:** [January 27, 2008, 4:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-democrats-next-11-days/434987/65 "2008-01-27T16:44:07Z")
[QUOTE=Anduril] Hypocrisy. Race-baiting. He also strikes me as a bit of a punk. But more than that, I really feel that Hillary is not getting a fair shake. When I look at the facts and compare them with the impression, it just doesn’t add up. I expected SDMB to be much more aware of the facts than most, but it doesn’t seem to be the case. [/QUOTE] You don’t think Hillary - a veritable titan in the political scene is not getting a fair shake? Are you sure about that? Obama is carrying his own against a titan. Hipocracy you say? A punk…? I do hope much of the American public does not agree with you. ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [January 27, 2008, 5:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-democrats-next-11-days/434987/66 "2008-01-27T17:39:07Z")
My answer to the OP’s question. The lion’s share (61%) of Feb. 5 delegates are in just 6 states. So the margins there are the margins that will matter. These states are: State/Delegates/Latest poll (H-O-E)/Trend CA (370) 39-27-10 Obama upward trend NY (232) 51-25-11 Obama weak upward trend IL (153) 22-51-15 Too few to say NJ (107) 49-32-10 Stable MA (93) 59-22-11 Too few to say GA (87) 35-41-13 Too few to say Total: 1042 Delegates/1,681 total on Feb. 5 If the election were held today, and assuming exact proportionality of votes to delegates, the result would be Hillary 435 to Obama 323. Hardly a knock-out blow among the key states, and the final tally with all the states included won’t have a margin of over 200 delegates _at worst_. In all likelihood, it will actually be much closer. These polls are without any bump Obama will get from SC. As each contest has approached, in NV, IA, NH, and SC, Obama has gone from being down by 15-20 points to very close or winning (and many of these polls are as old as those polls were). Granted, he’s had longer to campaign in those states. But it isn’t all campaigning–it’s voters taking a closer look as it gets closer to there time to cast a ballot. I would guess that the next round of polls in these states shows Obama gaining in every one of the above states, with the possible exception of NY. So I think the final total for these key states will be closer to 400-350, with the final total for all states with a margin of no more than 150 electoral votes. That would give Hillary, not including superdelegates, a lead of some 137 delegates. A significant lead, but not enough to end it. Not even close. And then the money will start to get tight. And the question will become: which side has maxed out their donors? Care to take a guess? ---
**Author:** ![Spiny\_Norman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9de0a6/32.png) [@Spiny\_Norman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spiny_Norman)\ **Post date:** [January 27, 2008, 6:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-democrats-next-11-days/434987/67 "2008-01-27T18:16:41Z")
> [@](#): > > [http://www.boston.com/news/politics/politicalintelligence/2008/01/ted\_kennedy\_end.html](http://www.boston.com/news/politics/politicalintelligence/2008/01/ted_kennedy_end.html) > > Senator Edward M. Kennedy will endorse Barack Obama for president tomorrow, breaking his year-long neutrality to send a powerful signal of where the legendary Massachusetts Democrat sees the party going – and who he thinks is best to lead it. > > \ > > Kennedy plans to campaign actively for Obama, an aide said, and will focus particularly among Hispanics and labor union members, who are important voting blocks in several Feb. 5 states, including California, New York, New Jersey, Arizona and New Mexico. This is HUGE! ---
**Author:** ![Shayna](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shayna/32/17976_2.png) [@Shayna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shayna)\ **Post date:** [January 27, 2008, 6:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-democrats-next-11-days/434987/68 "2008-01-27T18:18:11Z")
Oops! Bugger, that was me above, not my hubby (though he shares the sentiments). And adding; with Senator Kennedy’s donor list now at his disposal, Obama won’t have to worry a lick about running out of money. I really think this will have an enormous impact on the race. I’m feeling a lot more confident about calling it for Obama with this endorsement in hand. ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [January 27, 2008, 7:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-democrats-next-11-days/434987/69 "2008-01-27T19:26:41Z")
How much will dual Kennedy endorsements help Obama in MA? ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [January 27, 2008, 7:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-democrats-next-11-days/434987/70 "2008-01-27T19:26:51Z")
Given **Richard** ’s figures above that endorsement will be valuable if only for the influence it will have in MA alone. There a lot of big names who will be making endorsements this week. They’ll want to be on board before Super Tuesday since after that it won’t matter as much. My guess is that several were leaning to Obama but afraid to go against the “inevitability” of the Clintons machine. Now that that machine has shown itself to be vulnerable they are going to get themselves behind Obama while their endorsements still get attention. Some will go to HRC too though. Enough to stop the perception of Obama as being the uniting force gathering steam? I doubt it. Look for this Tuesday to be a banner day for the big names (like Richardson) - after the State of the Union could possibly interrupt its focus in the news and in time to give the pundits that to talk about on the Dem side during the Florida returns that evening rather than HRC’s likely meaningless victory there. (I know I had earlier thought they’d want the Sunday talk shows but I hadn’t considered those other factors then.) ---
**Author:** ![Shayna](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shayna/32/17976_2.png) [@Shayna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shayna)\ **Post date:** [January 27, 2008, 7:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-democrats-next-11-days/434987/71 "2008-01-27T19:35:26Z")
[QUOTE=DSeid] There a lot of big names who will be making endorsements this week. They’ll want to be on board before Super Tuesday since after that it won’t matter as much. [/QUOTE] [CONGRESSMAN XAVIER BECERRA ENDORSES BARACK OBAMA](http://www.americanchronicle.com/articles/50337) > [@](#): > > LOS ANGELES, CA – Congressman Xavier Becerra has endorsed Barack Obama for President, citing his ability to unite Americans to lead our country in a new direction. Becerra serves on the powerful House Ways and Means Committee and as the Assistant to the Speaker of the House is the highest ranking Latino in the House. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [January 27, 2008, 8:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-democrats-next-11-days/434987/72 "2008-01-27T20:14:45Z")
More huge than Kennedy in my book. The other big prize of Latino endorsement in California is Molina and she can’t be far behind. Together they will make a major impact on the Latino vote in California. What was solidly for HRC comes into play. Both CA and MA. Let’s face it. The fence-sitters almost all need to decide before Feb Five or risk being inconsequential. If they were on the fence before SC then which way will the SC results and his very wise reaching across all America speech get them to fall? ---
**Author:** ![Shayna](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shayna/32/17976_2.png) [@Shayna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shayna)\ **Post date:** [January 27, 2008, 9:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-democrats-next-11-days/434987/73 "2008-01-27T21:28:58Z")
Looks like another important Superdelegate is coming on board. . . > [@](#): > > Gov. Kathleen Sebelius (D-KS) will deliver the Democratic response to the State of the Union on Monday. > > And then Tuesday or Wednesday, she plans to endorse Barack Obama, numerous Democratic sources said. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [January 27, 2008, 9:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-democrats-next-11-days/434987/74 "2008-01-27T21:50:43Z")
[QUOTE=Richard Parker] My answer to the OP’s question. The lion’s share (61%) of Feb. 5 delegates are in just 6 states. So the margins there are the margins that will matter. These states are: State/Delegates/Latest poll (H-O-E)/Trend CA (370) 39-27-10 Obama upward trend NY (232) 51-25-11 Obama weak upward trend IL (153) 22-51-15 Too few to say NJ (107) 49-32-10 Stable MA (93) 59-22-11 Too few to say GA (87) 35-41-13 Too few to say [/quote] [Pollster.com](http://Pollster.com) has CA, NY, and NJ, but where did you get the others? And how old is the MA poll? It’s hard to believe MA would have numbers like that post-Iowa, and anything pre-Iowa is a historical artifact now. Total: 1042 Delegates/1,681 total on Feb. 5 If the election were held today, and assuming exact proportionality of votes to delegates, the result would be Hillary 435 to Obama 323. Hardly a knock-out blow among the key states, and the final tally with all the states included won’t have a margin of over 200 delegates _at worst_. [/quote] The problem is, 200 delegates is actually a pretty big damned lead, given that delegate allocation is proportional. To make up a deficit of that size, you’ve got to win states worth 1000 delegates by an average of 20%. I agree with you that it’s likely to be closer than that, though. [QUOTE=DSeid] Let’s face it. The fence-sitters almost all need to decide before Feb Five or risk being inconsequential. If they were on the fence before SC then which way will the SC results and his very wise reaching across all America speech get them to fall? [/QUOTE] Towards Obama. The number of big-name endorsements for Obama since NH has been quite surprising as it is. This is hardly going to slow down that trend. ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [January 27, 2008, 9:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-democrats-next-11-days/434987/75 "2008-01-27T21:57:02Z")
[QUOTE=RTFirefly] [Pollster.com](http://Pollster.com) has CA, NY, and NJ, but where did you get the others? And how old is the MA poll? It’s hard to believe MA would have numbers like that post-Iowa, and anything pre-Iowa is a historical artifact now. [/quote] MA poll is Jan. 25th from SurveyUSA. GA poll is Jan. 25th from Rasmussen. IL poll is Jan. 26th from Research 2000. > [@RTFirefly](#): > > The problem is, 200 delegates is actually a pretty big damned lead, given that delegate allocation is proportional. To make up a deficit of that size, you’ve got to win states worth 1000 delegates by an average of 20%. Good point. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [January 27, 2008, 10:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-democrats-next-11-days/434987/76 "2008-01-27T22:06:28Z")
[QUOTE=Richard Parker] MA poll is Jan. 25th from SurveyUSA. GA poll is Jan. 25th from Rasmussen. IL poll is Jan. 26th from Research 2000. [/QUOTE] Hard to believe Obama only got 22% in MA that recently. I’d think just the college students in Massachusetts would push him higher than that. ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [January 27, 2008, 10:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-democrats-next-11-days/434987/77 "2008-01-27T22:07:45Z")
[QUOTE=RTFirefly] Hard to believe Obama only got 22% in MA that recently. I’d think just the college students in Massachusetts would push him higher than that. [/QUOTE] Yeah, not to mention that he lived there for 3 years. It would be interesting to see the breakdown in the poll. Maybe none of the college students in Boston have phones. ---
**Author:** ![ShadowFacts](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shadowfacts/32/2934_2.png) [@ShadowFacts](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShadowFacts)\ **Post date:** [January 27, 2008, 11:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-democrats-next-11-days/434987/78 "2008-01-27T23:07:15Z")
[QUOTE=Richard Parker] Yeah, not to mention that he lived there for 3 years. It would be interesting to see the breakdown in the poll. Maybe none of the college students in Boston have phones. [/QUOTE] You gents may be interested in this article from The Boston Phoenix about whether Obama can close the gap in MA: > **[Can Obama lasso the Bay State? - News - The Phoenix](https://thephoenix.com/article_ektid55013.aspx)** ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [January 27, 2008, 11:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-democrats-next-11-days/434987/79 "2008-01-27T23:16:23Z")
[QUOTE=ShadowFacts] You gents may be interested in this article from The Boston Phoenix about whether Obama can close the gap in MA: > **[Can Obama lasso the Bay State? - News - The Phoenix](https://thephoenix.com/article_ektid55013.aspx)** [/QUOTE] Interesting indeed. Thanks. ---
**Author:** ![Shayna](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shayna/32/17976_2.png) [@Shayna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shayna)\ **Post date:** [January 27, 2008, 11:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-democrats-next-11-days/434987/80 "2008-01-27T23:31:14Z")
Former California State Senator Tom Hayden just [endorsed Barack Obama](http://www.huffingtonpost.com/tom-hayden/an-endorsement-of-the-mov_b_83478.html). Lots of momentum going Barack’s way today. The Arizona Tribune [endorsed him (along with John McCain) today](http://www.mediainfo.com/eandp/news/article_display.jsp?vnu_content_id=1003702590), too. Nothing new on Hillary’s website at all – she’s still celebrating Nevada and talking to Tyra. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-democrats-next-11-days/434987.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-democrats-next-11-days/434987.md?page=5)