# Handicap the Democrats next 11 days **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [January 25, 2008, 6:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-democrats-next-11-days/434987 "2008-01-25T18:08:48Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 7
**Author:** ![Anduril](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/c0e974/32.png) [@Anduril](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Anduril)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2008, 7:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-democrats-next-11-days/434987/121 "2008-01-30T07:30:21Z")
[QUOTE=Harborwolf] Cite? Heck, cites? I’ve been reading this thread. You’ve said that Obama has clearly been playing the race card and running a dirty campaign. Now you’re saying that Barack is more the establishment candidate than Hillary, and that Obama supporters are intellectually lazy for not seeing it. Lots of opinions. Little evidence. Start posting some information for the less lazy of us to peruse or admit to your attempts to bamboozle us. [/QUOTE] First of all, it would be a very big undertaking to list every cite. You can check it out for yourself. Compare the factcheck site from Barack’s and Hillary’s campaigns and follow the source. I’ll list a few at the top of my head: Who started attacking first? Barack Obama. Check - [timeline.org](http://timeline.org) and compare it to the earliest in [hillaryattacks.com](http://hillaryattacks.com). Barack keeps on lying about Hillary’s “statement” about NAFTA a number of times even after correction. Barack Obama surrogates keep on lying about Barack’s record on Iraq votes being almost exactly the same as Hillary’s except for one confirmation vote that they differed on. They lie about this everytime and no one calls them on it. Michelle Obama clearly insinuated that Hillary doesn’t keep a nice home (in a clear reference to their family structure). Had it been Hillary or Bill who did something of this sort - the media will be all over them - which exactly is what happened regarding their supposedly “racist” comments that are only racist to someone Obama surrogates and people plagued with “white guilt”. Playing the race card: Not responding in a timely manner to the attacks on Bill and Hillary supposedly “racist” comments. That’s playing the race card. Obama only responded AFTER polls have come out. It certainly helped his campaign. Obama even tried to persuade Jesse Jackson to say something negative about Bill after Bill’s comment comparing Obama’s and Jesse Jackson’s win. Jackson didn’t think it was racial. [QUOTE=Phlosphr] Race may indeed not have anything to do with it, perhaps he doesn’t like change I don’t know - however, Andruil is not an American or so he says, so why the disdain of a man who is running arguable a very clean campaign? [/QUOTE] I am not an American. [I’m Filipino.](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=4120848#post4120848) The disdain comes from my conclusion that Obama is not running a very clean campaign. Like what I’ve said, I don’t get to be bombarded by the media over there, so I only get to read about the narrative coming from them and from the Obama camp. I base this conclusion on their statements and actual facts. That’s what I have been saying all along. Now you might wonder why I’m so interested about American politics. The reason I’m interested is that I’m absolutely jealous. In the US, people get to talk about policy, about facts, about candidates’ legislative records, etc. In the Philippines, all you get are motherhood statements and personality. The last election, most candidates didn’t even bother to come up with any platform at all. So when I look at the US elections, I dream of the day that it would also be that way for us. I’m also interested because I want the progressives to win. I want the Democrats to win. While the European countries have proven to be much more liberal, they are not the dominant culture in the World. Less advanced countries still look up to the US and are influenced by their social policies. Sadly, for a time, the conservative agenda had been very dominant and I hope that will change. ---
**Author:** ![Anduril](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/c0e974/32.png) [@Anduril](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Anduril)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2008, 7:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-democrats-next-11-days/434987/122 "2008-01-30T07:37:37Z")
[QUOTE=Shayna] Genitalia [/QUOTE] See. This is what I mean. If a Hillary supporter said anything remotely analogous about Obama, he will be labeled a racist. The fact is, it could very well be true that women will tend to vote for a woman candidate and that African Americans will tend to vote for an African American candidate. There’s nothing racist or misogynist about the statement. Unfortunately for Hillary, though, people are more inclined to fling the “racist” charge on even very innocent comments and be less vigilant about blatantly misogynistic broadsides. ---
**Author:** ![Shayna](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shayna/32/17976_2.png) [@Shayna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shayna)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2008, 2:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-democrats-next-11-days/434987/123 "2008-01-30T14:55:22Z")
[QUOTE=Anduril] See. This is what I mean. If a Hillary supporter said anything remotely analogous about Obama, he will be labeled a racist. The fact is, it could very well be true that women will tend to vote for a woman candidate and that African Americans will tend to vote for an African American candidate. There’s nothing racist or misogynist about the statement. Unfortunately for Hillary, though, people are more inclined to fling the “racist” charge on even very innocent comments and be less vigilant about blatantly misogynistic broadsides. [/QUOTE] First of all, you contradict yourself right in your own post. Either there’s nothing misogynist about the statement that women will tend to vote for a woman candidate, or there is. Pick one. Secondly, given that I work _in_ California, for a political consultant who is working extremely closely with the Hillary campaign, having raised hundreds of thousands of dollars for her, I know first hand who is being courted here and why, and it’s women, and it’s because they’re _women_. * * * And yet another big endorsement for Barack in California today. > [@](#): > > [http://www.independentvoice.org/free\_details.asp?id=52](http://www.independentvoice.org/free_details.asp?id=52) > > LARGEST INDEPENDENT VOTER ORGANIZATION IN CALIFORNIA ENDORSES OBAMA > > LOS ANGELES – [IndependentVoice.org](http://IndependentVoice.org), California’s largest organization of independent voters, has endorsed Senator Barack Obama for President in the open Democratic primary on February 5. The endorsement of the 200,000 member organization could impact significantly on the outcome of the primary, with close to 20% of Democratic primary voters expected to be decline-to-state independents. > > \ > > Media outlets and political analysts agree that independents will determine the outcome of the California and New Jersey primaries. Fifteen out of the twenty-four Democratic Party contests on Tsunami Tuesday are “open,” allowing independents to participate. ---
**Author:** ![Anduril](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/c0e974/32.png) [@Anduril](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Anduril)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2008, 3:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-democrats-next-11-days/434987/124 "2008-01-30T15:12:57Z")
[QUOTE=Shayna] First of all, you contradict yourself right in your own post. Either there’s nothing misogynist about the statement that women will tend to vote for a woman candidate, or there is. Pick one. [/QUOTE] No contradiction at all. There’s nothing misogynist about it. What I was pointing to is that there is a double standard as to what constitutes misogyny and what constitutes racism. People seem to immediately find a racist undertone to even the most innocent statement while completely ignoring blatant sexist statements. Again, in case you missed it, I didn’t find the statement misogynist. ---
**Author:** ![Damuri\_Ajashi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/898d66/32.png) [@Damuri\_Ajashi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Damuri_Ajashi)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2008, 10:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-democrats-next-11-days/434987/125 "2008-01-30T22:10:51Z")
[QUOTE=Shayna] Florida will be meaningless when Obama takes California. [California Teachers block early Hillary endorsement](http://www.camajorityreport.com/index.php?module=articles&func=display&aid=2670&ptid=9). . . [/QUOTE] There was a similar dust-up at AFSCME when AFSCME went negative on Obama. The original endorsement of Hillary was a close call and based as much on her inevitability (they wanted to bet on a winner) than on anyone’s preference for her. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2008, 10:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-democrats-next-11-days/434987/126 "2008-01-30T22:40:29Z")
Given the importance of independents in the CA and NJ votes, does the apparent resolution of the Republican side affect things? One could imagine that independents who might feel the desire to vote for McCain feel less of a need now that he basically has the nomination, and will instead be more likely to turn out for Obama. I’m still waiting for Richardson … I think he’s waiting to have a day when he’ll be the big news of the day and Kennedy and Edwards have both co-opted the last few days … maybe tomorrow? It’s getting late in the week. ---
**Author:** ![Damuri\_Ajashi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/898d66/32.png) [@Damuri\_Ajashi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Damuri_Ajashi)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2008, 10:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-democrats-next-11-days/434987/127 "2008-01-30T22:43:05Z")
[QUOTE=Anduril] From where I stand, Obama appears to be the establishment candidate. My frustration has nothing to do with how voters will behave. They can do whatever crazy thing they want. It’s when lies are used to persuade them - that’s when I tend to get a bit miffed. Considering that this is the Straight Dope, I expected more factual criticisms / analysis of both candidates. Sadly, too many here have swallowed the narrative of the MSM without looking at the bare facts. It’s intellectual laziness that is ultimately driving Obama support. Hillary supporters, I find, are much more interested in looking at the facts than swallowing the pre-digested narrative. [/QUOTE] I don’t know where you are standing but the Democratic party where I live had been gearing up for a Hillary general election right up until Iowa when everything went sideways as far as the “establishment” was concerned. Obama may be getting some underinformed, overenthusiastic young voters due to his charisma but I would suggest that Hillary is getting some undeserved mileage from being married to the most popular living president. ---
**Author:** ![MovieMogul](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f08c70/32.png) [@MovieMogul](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MovieMogul)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2008, 10:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-democrats-next-11-days/434987/128 "2008-01-30T22:46:09Z")
[QUOTE=Anduril] Playing the race card: Not responding in a timely manner to the attacks on Bill and Hillary supposedly “racist” comments. That’s playing the race card. Obama only responded AFTER polls have come out. It certainly helped his campaign. [/QUOTE] So let me get this straight–Bill & Hillary make controversial statements with racially-loaded implications and because Obama doesn’t respond quickly enough about them, _ **he** _’s the one “playing the race card”? :rolleyes: ---
**Author:** ![Shayna](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shayna/32/17976_2.png) [@Shayna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shayna)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2008, 11:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-democrats-next-11-days/434987/129 "2008-01-30T23:22:44Z")
[Latest from Gallup](http://www.gallup.com/poll/104044/Gallup-Daily-Tracking-Election-2008.aspx) > [@](#): > > Barack Obama has now cut the gap with Hillary Clinton to 6 percentage points among Democrats nationally in the Gallup Poll Daily tracking three-day average, and interviewing conducted Tuesday night shows the gap between the two candidates is within a few points. Obama’s position has been strengthening on a day-by-day basis. As recently as Jan. 18-20, Clinton led Obama by 20 points. Today’s Gallup Poll Daily tracking is based on interviews conducted Jan. 27-29, all after Obama’s overwhelming victory in South Carolina on Saturday. Two out of the three nights interviewing were conducted after the high-visibility endorsement of Obama by Sen. Edward Kennedy and his niece Caroline Kennedy. > > Clinton’s lead in the three-day average is now 42% to Obama’s 36%. John Edwards, who dropped out of the race Wednesday after Gallup conducted these interviews, ended his quest for the presidency with 12% support. Wednesday night’s interviewing will reflect the distribution of the vote choice of former Edwards’ supporters as well as the impact, if any, of Hillary Clinton’s popular vote win in Florida on Tuesday. > > These national numbers are a critically important indicator of the political environment when voters in more than 20 states go to the polls next Tuesday. At the moment, Obama has the momentum among Democrats nationally. I’m liking my prediction better and better. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Spoke](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a88e57/32.png) [@Spoke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoke)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2008, 11:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-democrats-next-11-days/434987/130 "2008-01-30T23:37:02Z")
I’m not sure how much we can trust the polls. I think they must be missing a lot of voters. The latest poll going into the South Carolina primary had Obama up by 15%, and he wound up beating Hillary by 29%. [See here.](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/sc/south_carolina_democratic_primary-234.html) I suppose you could argue that every single undecided voter broke for Obama, but I think a more likely explanation is that the polling methodology is flawed. ---
**Author:** ![tds1273](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/df705f/32.png) [@tds1273](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tds1273)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2008, 11:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-democrats-next-11-days/434987/131 "2008-01-30T23:50:02Z")
I don’t think we are going to be hearing from Richardson any time soon. He seems to be the consensus pick by almost all observers for either Vice President, or more so, Sec. State. I doubt he feels the need to risk cutting his chances of a nice WH position from down practically a sure thing to just a flip of a coin. ---
**Author:** ![Shayna](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shayna/32/17976_2.png) [@Shayna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shayna)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2008, 12:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-democrats-next-11-days/434987/132 "2008-01-31T00:13:24Z")
[QUOTE=tds1273] I don’t think we are going to be hearing from Richardson any time soon. He seems to be the consensus pick by almost all observers for either Vice President, or more so, Sec. State. I doubt he feels the need to risk cutting his chances of a nice WH position from down practically a sure thing to just a flip of a coin. [/QUOTE] He says he’s going to go with his gut feeling, so I’ll go with mine and say I think he’s going to endorse. And if he does, he says it will be in the next 2 days. [ > [@](#): > > If Richardson is to endorse either Clinton or Obama – “I might, I might not, how’s that for an answer?” – he said he’ll do so by the end of the week. ]([http://blog.washingtonpost.com/the-trail/2008/01/29/richardsons\_choice.html](http://blog.washingtonpost.com/the-trail/2008/01/29/richardsons_choice.html)) My gut is also telling me he’ll be endorsing Obama. It’s silly, I know, but it’s a cute story, nonetheless. . . > [@](#): > > Obama saved him during one of last year’s Democratic debates: > > “I had just been asked a question – I don’t remember which one – and Obama was sitting right next to me. Then the moderator went across the room, I think to Chris Dodd, so I thought I was home free for a while. I wasn’t going to listen to the next question. I was about to say something to Obama when the moderator turned to me and said, ‘So, Gov. Richardson, what do you think of that?’ But I wasn’t paying any attention! I was about to say, ‘Could you repeat the question? I wasn’t listening.’ But I wasn’t about to say I wasn’t listening. I looked at Obama. I was just horrified. And Obama whispered, ‘Katrina. Katrina.’ The question was on Katrina! So I said, ‘On Katrina, my policy . . .’ Obama could have just thrown me under the bus. So I said, ‘Obama, that was good of you to do that.’” 🆒 ---
**Author:** ![Phlosphr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c68b51/32.png) [@Phlosphr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Phlosphr)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2008, 12:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-democrats-next-11-days/434987/133 "2008-01-31T00:18:48Z")
[QUOTE=Shayna] He says he’s going to go with his gut feeling, so I’ll go with mine and say I think he’s going to endorse. And if he does, he says it will be in the next 2 days. [url=“[http://blog.washingtonpost.com/the-trail/2008/01/29/richardsons\_choice.html](http://blog.washingtonpost.com/the-trail/2008/01/29/richardsons_choice.html)”] My gut is also telling me he’ll be endorsing Obama. It’s silly, I know, but it’s a cute story, nonetheless. . . 🆒 [/QUOTE] Nice. I agree. ---
**Author:** ![Phlosphr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c68b51/32.png) [@Phlosphr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Phlosphr)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2008, 12:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-democrats-next-11-days/434987/134 "2008-01-31T00:22:34Z")
[QUOTE=spoke-] I suppose you could argue that **every single undecided voter broke for Obama,** but I think a more likely explanation is that the polling methodology is flawed. [/QUOTE] Bolding mine, I think you said it right there…imagine that!? He appears to be gaining some serious speed according to the latest. I was just at a dinner here in CT for him and it was amazing, the support coming from this affluent side of CT is refreshing! There’s a lot of old money, swamp yankee folk gett’in in on the money trail! That’s a good sign. ---
**Author:** ![Digital\_Stimulus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/aeb1de/32.png) [@Digital\_Stimulus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Digital_Stimulus)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2008, 3:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-democrats-next-11-days/434987/135 "2008-01-31T03:49:44Z")
[QUOTE=Damuri Ajashi] I don’t know where you are standing but the Democratic party where I live had been gearing up for a Hillary general election right up until Iowa when everything went sideways as far as the “establishment” was concerned. [/quote] I’m really glad you caught that. Until very recently, Clinton was “it”. And, IIRC, **Anduril** is in the Philipines. ---
**Author:** ![Spoke](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a88e57/32.png) [@Spoke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoke)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2008, 4:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-democrats-next-11-days/434987/136 "2008-01-31T04:06:27Z")
[QUOTE=Phlosphr] Bolding mine, I think you said it right there…imagine that!? He appears to be gaining some serious speed according to the latest. I was just at a dinner here in CT for him and it was amazing, the support coming from this affluent side of CT is refreshing! There’s a lot of old money, swamp yankee folk gett’in in on the money trail! That’s a good sign. [/QUOTE] Excellent. I noticed that [a new poll](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ct/connecticut_democratic_primary-273.html) shows Hillary and Obama tied in CT at 40% each (with Edwards at 11%). I’m counting on the undecideds breaking Obama’s way. ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2008, 6:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-democrats-next-11-days/434987/137 "2008-01-31T06:23:19Z")
Two new polls up from Rasmussen. They show Obama having gained 8 points in CA and a whopping 31 points in MA. This is just one polling company, granted, but 31 points! That’s got to represent something happening in MA. Hmm…I wonder why MA? Couldn’t be an endorsement of some kind helping him, could it? I mean, endorsements don’t really do anything, right? ---
**Author:** ![Phlosphr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c68b51/32.png) [@Phlosphr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Phlosphr)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2008, 1:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-democrats-next-11-days/434987/138 "2008-01-31T13:27:03Z")
[QUOTE=Richard Parker] Two new polls up from Rasmussen. They show Obama having gained 8 points in CA and a whopping 31 points in MA. This is just one polling company, granted, but 31 points! That’s got to represent something happening in MA. Hmm…I wonder why MA? Couldn’t be an endorsement of some kind helping him, could it? I mean, endorsements don’t really do anything, right? [/QUOTE] It’s the same folk in MA turning to Obama that are turning to him in CT. Down here in CT the older, big money folk always wait to see who endorses who…and this is an area where old family ties still mean something. And to see _that_ “something” entering the backrooms of the big money salons is a very good sign for Obama. ---
**Author:** ![wonky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wonky/32/393_2.png) [@wonky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wonky)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2008, 1:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-democrats-next-11-days/434987/139 "2008-01-31T13:44:19Z")
[QUOTE=Richard Parker] Two new polls up from Rasmussen. They show Obama having gained 8 points in CA and a whopping 31 points in MA. This is just one polling company, granted, but 31 points! That’s got to represent something happening in MA. Hmm…I wonder why MA? Couldn’t be an endorsement of some kind helping him, could it? I mean, endorsements don’t really do anything, right? [/QUOTE] That’s remarkable. The California surge probably has lots of causes, but that massive MA jump has to be a lot of Teddy, doesn’t it? ---
**Author:** ![Phlosphr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c68b51/32.png) [@Phlosphr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Phlosphr)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2008, 2:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-democrats-next-11-days/434987/140 "2008-01-31T14:22:33Z")
I’m really looking forward to the Debate tonight. The signs are all there that Obama is gaining speed. If he is the winner by any margin on Tuesday it’s going to be difficult for Hillary to catch him, if not impossible. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-democrats-next-11-days/434987.md?page=6) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-democrats-next-11-days/434987.md?page=8)