# Handicap the Democrats next 11 days **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [January 25, 2008, 6:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-democrats-next-11-days/434987 "2008-01-25T18:08:48Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 9
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [February 1, 2008, 7:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-democrats-next-11-days/434987/161 "2008-02-01T07:04:24Z")
[QUOTE=BobLibDem] I think Friday about 3pm or so. This gets you on all the talking head shows Friday night and if no fresher news comes in, you’re the talk of the Sunday talk shows too. [/QUOTE] Hmmm. Well given that Obama will [be in New Mexico](http://www.nmfbihop.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=651) on Friday, probably around 3pm or so, I’d say this is it for Richardson either way. He endorses Obama then or he doesn’t endorse. ---
**Author:** ![Jolly\_Roger](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/91b2a8/32.png) [@Jolly\_Roger](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jolly_Roger)\ **Post date:** [February 1, 2008, 8:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-democrats-next-11-days/434987/162 "2008-02-01T08:11:06Z")
[QUOTE=Anduril] First of all, it would be a very big undertaking to list every cite. [/QUOTE] Thats a cop out, man. If there are so many surely you could list a few? ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [February 1, 2008, 2:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-democrats-next-11-days/434987/163 "2008-02-01T14:16:40Z")
And Kennedy will be in CA … will Molina appear with him and endorse Obama? If Molina and Richardson both endorse Obama today, who goes first? (I vote Richardson with Molina helping communicate the significance of that endorsement to her supporters later in the day.) I’m in IL and I’ve seen few political ads (although I may just be missing them) … any of you in other Super Tuesday states? How heavy are the ads playing? Is Obama’s newfound depth of funding translating into heavier ad time in necks of the woods? ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [February 1, 2008, 4:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-democrats-next-11-days/434987/164 "2008-02-01T16:18:29Z")
[QUOTE=DSeid] I’m in IL and I’ve seen few political ads (although I may just be missing them) … [/QUOTE] I rather expect the Clinton campaign wouldn’t waste its money there and the Obama campaign wouldn’t waste its money in Arkansas. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [February 1, 2008, 4:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-democrats-next-11-days/434987/165 "2008-02-01T16:20:19Z")
[QUOTE=DSeid] I’m in IL and I’ve seen few political ads (although I may just be missing them) … [/QUOTE] I read somewhere that he bought TV time in every state except Illinois. ---
**Author:** ![ShadowFacts](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shadowfacts/32/2934_2.png) [@ShadowFacts](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShadowFacts)\ **Post date:** [February 1, 2008, 4:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-democrats-next-11-days/434987/166 "2008-02-01T16:21:50Z")
[QUOTE=DSeid] I’m in IL and I’ve seen few political ads (although I may just be missing them) … any of you in other Super Tuesday states? How heavy are the ads playing? Is Obama’s newfound depth of funding translating into heavier ad time in necks of the woods? [/QUOTE] I saw back to back Obama/Clinton ads last night during the local news in MA. Both of them spinning their new messages (Obama=future, Clinton=experience). It’s the first time I’ve seen ads from either (there was a little spillover from NH earlier). ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [February 1, 2008, 4:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-democrats-next-11-days/434987/167 "2008-02-01T16:31:06Z")
[QUOTE=BrainGlutton] I rather expect the Clinton campaign wouldn’t waste its money there and the Obama campaign wouldn’t waste its money in Arkansas. [/QUOTE] And, by the same token, vice-versa. ---
**Author:** ![JohnnieEnigma](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/dfb087/32.png) [@JohnnieEnigma](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnnieEnigma)\ **Post date:** [February 1, 2008, 4:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-democrats-next-11-days/434987/168 "2008-02-01T16:32:50Z")
[latest update for California](http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/political_commentary/commentary_by_dick_morris/hillary_crashing_in_california). 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Shayna](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shayna/32/17976_2.png) [@Shayna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shayna)\ **Post date:** [February 1, 2008, 4:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-democrats-next-11-days/434987/169 "2008-02-01T16:41:26Z")
[QUOTE=DSeid] I’m in IL and I’ve seen few political ads (although I may just be missing them) … any of you in other Super Tuesday states? How heavy are the ads playing? Is Obama’s newfound depth of funding translating into heavier ad time in necks of the woods? [/QUOTE] Absolutely. I see 5 of his to every 1 of hers. ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [February 1, 2008, 5:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-democrats-next-11-days/434987/170 "2008-02-01T17:26:41Z")
[MoveOn.org](http://MoveOn.org) just endorsed Obama. I actually think that hurts more than it helps for a few reasons. First, Obama is already facing the tough issue of rejecting the influence of PACs while having PACs campaign for him. He has asked them not to, but obviously he doesn’t want to do so too forcefully. Second, he probably already had MoveOn people anyway, including their e-mails. The MoveOn poll was wildly skewed toward him, so he doesn’t gain much by the endorsement. But he will know have to defend against Republican attacks on MoveOn (Betray Us, etc.). Does it help in some way I’m missing? ---
**Author:** ![Shayna](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shayna/32/17976_2.png) [@Shayna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shayna)\ **Post date:** [February 1, 2008, 5:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-democrats-next-11-days/434987/171 "2008-02-01T17:38:05Z")
Personally, I think it’s a non-issue. Or at least one he’s perfectly capable of shutting down if anyone was stupid enough to try to use it against him. ---
**Author:** ![Phlosphr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c68b51/32.png) [@Phlosphr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Phlosphr)\ **Post date:** [February 1, 2008, 5:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-democrats-next-11-days/434987/172 "2008-02-01T17:40:49Z")
[QUOTE=JohnnieEnigma] [latest update for California](http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/political_commentary/commentary_by_dick_morris/hillary_crashing_in_california). 🙂 [/QUOTE] Yippie!!! Bring it on!! [QUOTE=Richard Parker] [MoveOn.org](http://MoveOn.org) just endorsed Obama. I actually think that hurts more than it helps for a few reasons. First, Obama is already facing the tough issue of rejecting the influence of PACs while having PACs campaign for him. He has asked them not to, but obviously he doesn’t want to do so too forcefully. Second, he probably already had MoveOn people anyway, including their e-mails. The MoveOn poll was wildly skewed toward him, so he doesn’t gain much by the endorsement. But he will know have to defend against Republican attacks on MoveOn (Betray Us, etc.). Does it help in some way I’m missing? [/QUOTE] I think something that you are overlooking - not missing mind you - is that this will move Barack into a different demographic in terms of beoming more electable - his California numbers are rising with every day that passes, and Clinton’s are dropping. Let’s get him nominated and then worry about how the GOP will or might use this against him. Now if I am missing something someone please let me know. ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [February 1, 2008, 5:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-democrats-next-11-days/434987/173 "2008-02-01T17:49:51Z")
From SurveyUSA poll: > [@](#): > > Connecticut – The Entire Democratic Nomination Battle Boiled Down to Its Essence: Few if any states present as perfect a microcosm of the Hillary Clinton - Barack Obama drama as does Connecticut. Men back Obama. Women back Clinton. Young voters back Obama. Older voters back Clinton. White voters split. Black voters back Obama. Hispanics back Clinton. Moderates back Clinton. Liberals back Obama. Voters focused on Health Care back Clinton. Voters focused on Iraq split. Voters focused on the Economy split. When all is added up, 4 days to the 02/05/08 Primary, it’s Obama 48%, Clinton 44%, within the survey’s 3.8 point margin of sampling error. Effectively tied. Given that 29% of voters say they may yet change their mind, it’s not just tied, it’s fluid. Obama leads in greater Hartford and New Haven. Clinton leads in the rest of the state. Relative turnout of men vs women, young vs old, white vs black, will largely shape the outcome. Looks good for Obama if you buy that CT is a bellwether. Not sure if I do, but it is at least a bellwether for the NE. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [February 1, 2008, 5:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-democrats-next-11-days/434987/174 "2008-02-01T17:51:35Z")
[QUOTE=Richard Parker] [MoveOn.org](http://MoveOn.org) just endorsed Obama. I actually think that hurts more than it helps for a few reasons. [/QUOTE] He can’t worry about the general election at this point. If the endorsement helps him get the nomination, it’s a good thing for him. Don’t forget, also, that this might counteract a little of the criticism he got for his comments about Reagan. I can see a MoveOn endorsement being used against him in the general, but I don’t think it’s a huge deal. If they’re drumming up voters and giving him access to contacts or volunteers it probably helps. ---
**Author:** ![Shayna](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shayna/32/17976_2.png) [@Shayna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shayna)\ **Post date:** [February 1, 2008, 5:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-democrats-next-11-days/434987/175 "2008-02-01T17:57:53Z")
[QUOTE=Phlosphr] Yippie!!! Bring it on!! I think something that you are overlooking - not missing mind you - is that this will move Barack into a different demographic in terms of beoming more electable - his California numbers are rising with every day that passes, and Clinton’s are dropping. [/QUOTE] The California branch of the Service Employees International Union [just endorsed Barack Obama](http://www.news10.net/display_story.aspx?storyid=37973). > [@](#): > > SACRAMENTO (AP) – A spokeswoman for the California branch of the SEIU tells The Associated Press that the union is backing Barack Obama for president. > > The SEIU had been backing John Edwards, who dropped out of the race on Wednesday. > > The Service Employees International Union has about 650,000 members in California. Many are city, county and state workers. Others are in-home support and health care workers. ---
**Author:** ![Phlosphr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c68b51/32.png) [@Phlosphr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Phlosphr)\ **Post date:** [February 1, 2008, 6:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-democrats-next-11-days/434987/176 "2008-02-01T18:07:49Z")
[QUOTE=Richard Parker] From SurveyUSA poll: Looks good for Obama if you buy that CT is a bellwether. Not sure if I do, but it is at least a bellwether for the NE. [/QUOTE] I live in Connecticut and have been campaigning for the man in New Haven. In the last 72 hours we have seen great improvement in his reach - the gold coast [Greenwich/Fairfield County] has been pumping money into our campaign office, and we have seen a HUGE out pouring of Yale students rallying the Obama campaign here in New Haven - 70% of which are female and white. My wife was very surprised by this, but I told her that when times change, big things happen. We’re going to see Obama on Monday and are very much looking forward to it. The interesting thing is I come from the eastern side of the state, though not as wealthy as the Greenwich area, we’re definitely a close second - both of our reps in the eastern portion are supporting Obama - this is big in terms of looking at this whole campaign from only 4 months ago. Personally, I think Obama is going to make an upset run, and the HRC camp is going to feel a swift wind wisping past it’s hair… ---
**Author:** ![Squink](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5e925/32.png) [@Squink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Squink)\ **Post date:** [February 1, 2008, 6:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-democrats-next-11-days/434987/177 "2008-02-01T18:07:52Z")
[QUOTE=Marley23] I can see a MoveOn endorsement being used against him in the general, but I don’t think it’s a huge deal. [/QUOTE] Yes, those who view MoveOn as a terrible evil aren’t likely to have Obama on the list of candidates they’re considering in the first place. IMHO, this is a pretty big coup for him; beats hell out of Hillary’s crappy Democratic Leadership Council. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [February 1, 2008, 6:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-democrats-next-11-days/434987/178 "2008-02-01T18:10:06Z")
[QUOTE=Squink] Yes, those who view MoveOn as a terrible evil aren’t likely to have Obama on the list of candidates they’re considering in the first place. [/QUOTE] Maybe, maybe not. Worst comes to worst, he can probably (ugh) fake a Sister Souljah thing. ---
**Author:** ![Shayna](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shayna/32/17976_2.png) [@Shayna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shayna)\ **Post date:** [February 1, 2008, 6:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-democrats-next-11-days/434987/179 "2008-02-01T18:19:16Z")
California State Senator Leland Yee [just endorsed Barack Obama](http://www.insidebayarea.com/sanmateocountytimes/ci_8138194) > [@](#): > > Yee’s support is expected to provide a significant boost to the Obama campaign, since Asian Americans make up14 percent of California’s population, said Yee spokesman Adam Keigwin. ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [February 1, 2008, 6:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-democrats-next-11-days/434987/180 "2008-02-01T18:20:28Z")
[QUOTE=Marley23] He can’t worry about the general election at this point. If the endorsement helps him get the nomination, it’s a good thing for him. Don’t forget, also, that this might counteract a little of the criticism he got for his comments about Reagan. I can see a MoveOn endorsement being used against him in the general, but I don’t think it’s a huge deal. If they’re drumming up voters and giving him access to contacts or volunteers it probably helps. [/QUOTE] Of course. But how he is perceived as a general election candidate affects him now. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-democrats-next-11-days/434987.md?page=8) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-democrats-next-11-days/434987.md?page=10)