# Handicap the GOP nomination race **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [October 21, 2007, 12:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-gop-nomination-race/423463 "2007-10-21T12:40:51Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 10
**Author:** ![Spoke](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a88e57/32.png) [@Spoke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoke)\ **Post date:** [December 30, 2007, 5:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-gop-nomination-race/423463/181 "2007-12-30T17:21:32Z")
[QUOTE=BobLibDem] I don’t see him being tough to beat. The Republican electoral success has been due to a combination of an unholy marriage between fundamentalists and the super-wealthy as well as a great deal of election fraud. If you tell a major part of your coalition to get stuffed then you need to get a whole lot better at cheating to win the election. [/QUOTE] Not when that part of the coalition (the rich) comprises less than 1% of the population. It’s the “values voters” who have produced the victories at the polls for Republicans. If Huckabee gets the nod, and winds up running against Hillary-of-the-high-negatives, I see trouble. ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [December 30, 2007, 5:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-gop-nomination-race/423463/182 "2007-12-30T17:28:11Z")
[QUOTE=spoke-] If Huckabee gets the nod, and winds up running against Hillary-of-the-high-negatives, I see trouble. [/QUOTE] Huckabee appeals to the Republican base, but what does he offer independents and moderate Democrats? He cannot win without them. ---
**Author:** ![Spoke](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a88e57/32.png) [@Spoke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoke)\ **Post date:** [December 30, 2007, 5:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-gop-nomination-race/423463/183 "2007-12-30T17:56:30Z")
[QUOTE=Fear Itself] Huckabee appeals to the Republican base, but what does he offer independents and moderate Democrats? He cannot win without them. [/QUOTE] His very problem in Republican primaries is that he is (by the lights of business-oriented Republicans) too moderate. He espouses environmentalism, decries the hatefulness of earlier Republican campaigns, speaks critically of Bush’s go-it-alone foreign policy, speaks of the importance of addressing health care and poverty, has dealt compassionately with undocumented workers. Moreover, the base of which you’re speaking may be larger than you suppose. This board is hardly reflective of the level of religious conviction among the electorate at large. One other point is that many “swing voters” tend to focus more on personality than on issues. And whatever else you can say about Huckabee, you can’t deny that he has a charming personality. Combine all of that with Hillary’s negatives, and paying particular attention to the swing states which tend to turn the election, I see a Huckabee nomination as trouble for Democrats. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [December 30, 2007, 6:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-gop-nomination-race/423463/184 "2007-12-30T18:31:43Z")
Meh. Hillary’s negatives are with those folks who wouldn’t consider voting for a Democrat anyway. Don’t worry about it. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [December 30, 2007, 6:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-gop-nomination-race/423463/185 "2007-12-30T18:39:13Z")
[QUOTE= Spoke-] …I see a Huckabee nomination as trouble for Democrats. [/QUOTE] A Huckabee nomination may well be trouble for Democrats. It augers ill for Cub Scouts, taxi drivers, Ph.D. candidates in philology, and lounge lizards as well. Citizens of Norway and Ivory Coast will be concerned, if not panic-stricken. (You would think that if an American President were unaware of the existence of a particular nation, it would feel assured of relative safety.) As a semi-secular agnostic with a life long interest in alternative realities, I am moved to a state of higher dudgeon. Should this horror come to pass, I will try and be mindful that I do not afflict others with the gathering gloom of my opinions. Too often. ---
**Author:** ![Spoke](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a88e57/32.png) [@Spoke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoke)\ **Post date:** [December 30, 2007, 7:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-gop-nomination-race/423463/186 "2007-12-30T19:05:25Z")
[QUOTE=ElvisL1ves] Meh. Hillary’s negatives are with those folks who wouldn’t consider voting for a Democrat anyway. Don’t worry about it. [/QUOTE] Dead wrong, I’m afraid. [Hillary has 30% negatives even among Iowa Democrats.](http://www.philly.com/philly/news/nation_world/20071209_Among_Democrats_in_Iowa__negatives_add_up_for_Clinton.html) ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [December 30, 2007, 7:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-gop-nomination-race/423463/187 "2007-12-30T19:35:55Z")
Similar to those of the other leading candidates, as other polls linked in this forum recently have shown. ---
**Author:** ![jayjay](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jayjay/32/6765_2.png) [@jayjay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jayjay)\ **Post date:** [December 30, 2007, 8:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-gop-nomination-race/423463/188 "2007-12-30T20:41:32Z")
And remember, these polls are for the PRIMARY. Democrats, on average, will vote for the Democrat rather than the Republican, even if the Democrat has high negatives. The Republican, unless he/she is a VERY unusual candidate, will have even higher negatives for a Democratic voter. ---
**Author:** ![Ersatz\_Shmoe](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/ee59a6/32.png) [@Ersatz\_Shmoe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ersatz_Shmoe)\ **Post date:** [December 31, 2007, 1:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-gop-nomination-race/423463/189 "2007-12-31T01:01:14Z")
Don’t discount the advantage of surpassing expectations. Romney coming in first in IA when it was his for the taking doesn’t help his campaign one iota. But overtaking would-be usurper Mike Huckabee throws the Romney campaign back into the spotlight. Never mind the fact that it was a combination of Huckabee’s flubs over the past week (i.e. “Let’s watch the borders for any suspicious Pakistanis”) and his lack of a solid machine in IA that did it. ---
**Author:** ![Spoke](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a88e57/32.png) [@Spoke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoke)\ **Post date:** [December 31, 2007, 1:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-gop-nomination-race/423463/190 "2007-12-31T01:15:23Z")
My fondest wish is that the Republicans nominate Romney. Or Giuliani. Either will do. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [December 31, 2007, 1:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-gop-nomination-race/423463/191 "2007-12-31T13:28:24Z")
[QUOTE=spoke-] Not when that part of the coalition (the rich) comprises less than 1% of the population. It’s the “values voters” who have produced the victories at the polls for Republicans. [/QUOTE] That’s what one would think. However, the elite class has been remarkably efficient at getting people to swallow their arguments- such as lowering taxes on the rich will spur economic growth, estate tax=death tax, etc. The value voters have brought home the bacon for the Republicans, but they still aren’t welcome at the breakfast table. ---
**Author:** ![Polycarp](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/82dd89/32.png) [@Polycarp](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Polycarp)\ **Post date:** [December 31, 2007, 1:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-gop-nomination-race/423463/192 "2007-12-31T13:31:17Z")
Q: Handicap the GOP nomination race. A: No. They’re already all handicapped enough! 😃 ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_Captor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/f17d59/32.png) [@Evil\_Captor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Captor)\ **Post date:** [January 2, 2008, 4:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-gop-nomination-race/423463/193 "2008-01-02T04:00:06Z")
[QUOTE=BobLibDem] I don’t see him being tough to beat. The Republican electoral success has been due to a combination of an unholy marriage between fundamentalists and the super-wealthy as well as a great deal of election fraud. If you tell a major part of your coalition to get stuffed then you need to get a whole lot better at cheating to win the election. [/QUOTE] Yeah, you have to do stuff like corrupt the Federal DAs who are in charge of prosecuting electoral fraud … those guys from … what’s that department? Justice??? ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [January 2, 2008, 5:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-gop-nomination-race/423463/194 "2008-01-02T05:55:05Z")
[QUOTE=spoke-] Not when that part of the coalition (the rich) comprises less than 1% of the population. It’s the “values voters” who have produced the victories at the polls for Republicans. [/QUOTE] 1% of the voters, but over 50% of the available money. The interesting thing is that, as far as I’ve read, the money isn’t flowing into Huck even after this surge. Add to that the fact that the Dems are beating the crap out of the Republicans in the funding game, and Huck spells trouble. ---
**Author:** ![AdmiralCrunch](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/6f9a4e/32.png) [@AdmiralCrunch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AdmiralCrunch)\ **Post date:** [January 3, 2008, 1:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-gop-nomination-race/423463/195 "2008-01-03T01:02:29Z")
Judging by polls, trends, and my performance on Guitar Hero while thinking about the candidate, I’m gonna make my call on Caucus Eve. Romney wins Iowa by a decent margin, Huckabee comes in a close but a non-threatening second, with McCain in third. McCain surges prior to NH, but Romney’s victory gives him enough momentum to squeak a win in NH. He rolls through the rest of the states as the GOP candidate. ---
**Author:** ![Icarus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/icarus/32/72_2.png) [@Icarus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Icarus)\ **Post date:** [January 3, 2008, 1:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-gop-nomination-race/423463/196 "2008-01-03T01:29:29Z")
Regarding the Huckabee church-folk/money-folk divide, I think the money folk are taking a wait and see approach. If Huck can bring the church-folk votes in sufficient numbers, the money-folk will bring the money in sufficient amounts. If he looks like he’s going to be the candidate, you can be darn sure some of the bankroll guys will have a sit down with Huck and educate him on the way-it-all-works. If he’s smart, he’ll tell them he will run from the middle to win, and then shift once he’s in office (where have we seen that before?) If he’s not so smart, he’ll bite the hand that’s feeding him while he campaigns, but they will keep the pressure on him and he’ll begin to drift. If he’s a total moron, they’ll make sure to screw him by convention time (photo’s/recordings/swift-boating) and Mitt’s the man. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [January 3, 2008, 11:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-gop-nomination-race/423463/197 "2008-01-03T11:14:43Z")
[He’s dropping out unless he finishes strong in Iowa tonight](http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0108/7682.html). Good riddance, you lazy old fart. It sure looks like it was all your trophy wife’s idea the whole time, doesn’t it? Wonder if he’ll give a “you won’t have my lawn for me to kick you off of anymore” speech. 😃 ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [January 3, 2008, 12:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-gop-nomination-race/423463/198 "2008-01-03T12:31:15Z")
And the winner of the Wesley Clark award for the candidate who was definitely not worth waiting for to get in the race goes to Fred Thompson. Not sure if both his supporters will go to McCain or if one will go to McCain and one to Huckabee. ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [January 3, 2008, 1:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-gop-nomination-race/423463/199 "2008-01-03T13:29:02Z")
How did Huckabee do on Leno last night? I only caught the last few minutes of it and it seemed he was doing well. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [January 3, 2008, 3:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-gop-nomination-race/423463/200 "2008-01-03T15:25:19Z")
[QUOTE=BobLibDem] And the winner of the Wesley Clark award for the candidate who was definitely not worth waiting for to get in the race goes to Fred Thompson. Not sure if both his supporters will go to McCain or if one will go to McCain and one to Huckabee. [/QUOTE] I think we ought to go ahead and name the award after Gramps, in addition to awarding it to him. While Wes Clark didn’t run a great campaign, he hung in there long enough to win one primary (Oklahoma), and actually _campaigned_ and stuff. He was ten times as good a candidate as Gramps. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-gop-nomination-race/423463.md?page=9) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-gop-nomination-race/423463.md?page=11)