# Handicap the GOP nomination race **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [October 21, 2007, 12:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-gop-nomination-race/423463 "2007-10-21T12:40:51Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 19\ **Page:** 23
**Author:** ![MovieMogul](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f08c70/32.png) [@MovieMogul](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MovieMogul)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2008, 11:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-gop-nomination-race/423463/441 "2008-02-05T23:48:15Z")
[QUOTE=RTFirefly] [Huckster wins West Virginia](http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/02/mike_huckabee_defeats_romney_f.php) And its rich prize of 18 delegates. [/QUOTE] Romney could’ve used those delegates, and he’s [pissed](http://www.salon.com/politics/war_room/2008/02/05/huckabee/index.html): > [@](#): > > West Virginia Republicans select their candidate at a state Republican Party Convention. At the convention today, Romney won the first round of voting, with 41 percent of the delegates voting for him, 33 percent for Huckabee, 16 percent for John McCain and 10 percent for Ron Paul. But since no candidate won a majority, another vote was held between the three leading candidates, without Ron Paul. > > As Fox News reports, in the second round, McCain delegates defected to Huckabee, in hopes of keeping Romney, McCain’s chief rival for the Republican nomination, from getting the 18 delegates in this winner-take-all state. That strategy worked. In the second vote, Huckabee took 51.5 percent, and Romney 47.4, giving Huckabee 18 delegates for the Republican National Convention in September. > > The Romney camp was not pleased. “Unfortunately, this is what Senator McCain’s inside Washington ways look like: he cut a backroom deal with the tax-and-spend candidate he thought could best stop Governor Romney’s campaign of conservative change,” said Beth Meyers, Romney’s campaign manager in a statement. ---
**Author:** ![jayjay](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jayjay/32/6765_2.png) [@jayjay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jayjay)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2008, 11:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-gop-nomination-race/423463/442 "2008-02-05T23:50:00Z")
> [@](#): > > conservative change Isn’t that an oxymoron? ---
**Author:** ![Merijeek](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f05b48/32.png) [@Merijeek](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Merijeek)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2008, 1:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-gop-nomination-race/423463/443 "2008-02-06T01:29:44Z")
[QUOTE=RTFirefly] [James Dobson says](http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/02/dobson_i_will_never_support_mc.php) that there are no circumstances under which he could support McCain, and if McCain’s the nominee, he’ll stay home and won’t vote. May every evangelical conservative in America emulate your sterling example, sir. [/QUOTE] Pfft. “They”, in both the singular and collective, will pull that big red lever and we all know it. Including them. -Joe ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2008, 5:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-gop-nomination-race/423463/444 "2008-02-06T05:30:14Z")
[There is a solution . . .](http://www.salon.com/comics/tomo/2008/02/04/tomo/) ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2008, 2:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-gop-nomination-race/423463/445 "2008-02-06T14:01:54Z")
[QUOTE=Merijeek] Pfft. “They”, in both the singular and collective, will pull that big red lever and we all know it. Including them. -Joe [/QUOTE] There are really two separate questions here: turnout level, and who the ones that turn out will vote for. We agree on the second question, which is what you appear to be answering. But I was addressing the first one. Since evangelical turnout levels have in fact fluctuated in the past, I see no reason to believe that those turnout levels have suddenly stopped doing so, and that their 2004 peak will become their new constant turnout level. That would make no sense at all. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2008, 7:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-gop-nomination-race/423463/446 "2008-02-07T19:41:11Z")
Since Romney is now out, can we confidently state McCain has it sewn up? Or might Huckabee have some surprises in store? ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2008, 7:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-gop-nomination-race/423463/447 "2008-02-07T19:58:40Z")
[QUOTE=BrainGlutton] Since Romney is now out, can we confidently state McCain has it sewn up? Or might Huckabee have some surprises in store? [/QUOTE] I think this is about sewed up. I figure Huck will last through the Virginia Primary and then drop out. The Clinton & Obama camps are disappointed. Romney looked far more beatable than McCain. ---
**Author:** ![Squink](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5e925/32.png) [@Squink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Squink)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2008, 9:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-gop-nomination-race/423463/448 "2008-02-09T21:31:25Z")
[Huckabee projected winner in Kansas](http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23068044/) Early Numbers: Huckabee 60% McCain 23% Paul 11% It’s a Huckabee blowout! ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2008, 3:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-gop-nomination-race/423463/449 "2008-02-10T03:04:28Z")
Does it really make a difference? ---
**Author:** ![Spoke](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a88e57/32.png) [@Spoke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoke)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2008, 3:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-gop-nomination-race/423463/450 "2008-02-10T03:37:41Z")
Well, it could. It’s very much a longshot, but if Huckabee rolls going forward, he could conceivably deny McCain the delegates he needs to win on the first ballot. Or so say the talking heads on CNN. ---
**Author:** ![Squink](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5e925/32.png) [@Squink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Squink)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2008, 4:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-gop-nomination-race/423463/451 "2008-02-10T04:14:27Z")
[HuckMentum!](http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/177790.php) Looks like Huckabees on track for a sweep tonight; Kansas, Louisiana, Washington. McCain gets nothing. Combined with Romney’s win in the CPAC straw poll, things are not looking good for the GOP’s heir apparent. Even if he walks away from the convention with the nomination, he’s faced with a party split of historic proportions. ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2008, 5:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-gop-nomination-race/423463/452 "2008-02-10T05:36:43Z")
[QUOTE=Squink] [HuckMentum!](http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/177790.php) Looks like Huckabees on track for a sweep tonight; Kansas, Louisiana, Washington. McCain gets nothing. Combined with Romney’s win in the CPAC straw poll, things are not looking good for the GOP’s heir apparent. Even if he walks away from the convention with the nomination, he’s faced with a party split of historic proportions. [/QUOTE] I thought Washington wasn’t declared yet? [CNN](http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/dates/index.html#20080209) has McCain slightly ahead at 26% with 78% counted. The real stunner is Paul at 21%. Huck has 24%. BTW: Obama took all three Democratic Primaries by large Margins, he closed the gap by another 37 delegates. HRC’s lead is shrinking quick. Jim ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2008, 6:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-gop-nomination-race/423463/453 "2008-02-10T06:40:04Z")
Since neither candidate got 50 percent of the vote in Louisiana, the race will be settled by a party convention next week. So I think it’s too soon to say Huckabee really won there. It sounds like Huckabee really can’t catch McCain no matter what. McCain is up by about 700 delegates to 200, and a little less than 1,200 are needed for the win. But if Huckabee is trying to make a case for the VP slot, I think he’s doing it very convincingly. ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2008, 6:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-gop-nomination-race/423463/454 "2008-02-10T06:48:19Z")
[QUOTE=Marley23] Since neither candidate got 50 percent of the vote in Louisiana, the race will be settled by a party convention next week. So I think it’s too soon to say Huckabee really won there. It sounds like Huckabee really can’t catch McCain no matter what. McCain is up by about 700 delegates to 200, and a little less than 1,200 are needed for the win. But if Huckabee is trying to make a case for the VP slot, I think he’s doing it very convincingly. [/QUOTE] Huck as VP scares me, he would be a really scary choice to be one heart beat from power and for McCain, that phrase takes on a little more meaning. I think Huck would only hurt McCain’s chances but I can also see where he would ensure the Theocons actually come out and vote and that many voters won’t really be concerned with him as he seems likable. BTW: It looks like McCain will pull out Washington by a narrow margin. Does anyone know how the rules work in Washington? The percentages are all very low. ---
**Author:** ![Squink](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5e925/32.png) [@Squink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Squink)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2008, 11:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-gop-nomination-race/423463/455 "2008-02-10T11:33:14Z")
[QUOTE=What Exit?] [CNN](http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/dates/index.html#20080209) has McCain slightly ahead at 26% with 78% counted. The real stunner is Paul at 21%. Huck has 24%. [/QUOTE] It’s 5:30 sunday, and 13% of the vote remains unreported. That’s odd, but the real stunner in Washington is Romney’s 16%. The man has dropped out, and _still_ polls within 10 points of the front runner. That’s a seriously divided party the GOP has up there. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2008, 3:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-gop-nomination-race/423463/456 "2008-02-10T15:24:42Z")
To me, the stunner is that McCain could only manage 26% support among Washington state Republican caucus-goers, despite being the presumptive nominee. If he’d just had problems in Louisiana and Kansas, one could write it off as a regional thing, having as much to do with Huck’s strength in the South as with McCain. Washington’s way outside that region. Sounds like a lot of Republicans aren’t happy with their choice. ---
**Author:** ![Spoke](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a88e57/32.png) [@Spoke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoke)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2008, 3:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-gop-nomination-race/423463/457 "2008-02-10T15:34:07Z")
Well, maybe Newt Gingrich will ride to the rescue of his party. Tee hee. ---
**Author:** ![Squink](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5e925/32.png) [@Squink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Squink)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2008, 5:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-gop-nomination-race/423463/458 "2008-02-10T17:40:58Z")
Apparently, we won’t know who really won Washington until monday. From the state Republican party: [Sen. McCain Wins Republican Precinct Caucuses in Washington State](http://www.wsrp.org/News/Read.aspx?ID=7043) > [@](#): > > With 87.2 percent of precincts reporting statewide… > > The percentages reflect the preferences of delegates who were chosen at precinct caucuses around the state earlier today. A final report is not expected to be available until Monday, February 11. I suppose it takes time to get numbers from Washington’s remote mountain villages, but something smells a little funny here. ---
**Author:** ![SmackFu](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/53a042/32.png) [@SmackFu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SmackFu)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2008, 5:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-gop-nomination-race/423463/459 "2008-02-10T17:58:46Z")
That’s why you don’t have primaries on Saturday, because no one wants to count votes on Sunday. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicap-the-gop-nomination-race/423463.md?page=22)