# Handicapping March 4th Texas, Ohio, Vermont and Rhode Island. **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [February 25, 2008, 1:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-march-4th-texas-ohio-vermont-and-rhode-island/439075 "2008-02-25T13:59:53Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Phlosphr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c68b51/32.png) [@Phlosphr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Phlosphr)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2008, 1:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-march-4th-texas-ohio-vermont-and-rhode-island/439075/1 "2008-02-25T13:59:53Z")
There it is: Who will come out victorious and who will fizzle and die a week from tomorrow. My take: Whoever is telling Clinton to act all nicey nice during a debate then start slinging loads of crapola needs to get fired. It didn’t work before and it’s not going to work now. Clinton insiders in her campaign are not happy and I believe it shows in her demeanor and in her campaign. Obama is cool and collected and you don’t have to guess who I am rooting for, but that aside. Huge endorsements from gigantic labor unions [biggest in the nation] 11 straight wins including the people outside the United States voting, and a ground campaign that is full of vigor and is extraordinarily organized will send Barack over the top. I see close wins in both states Texas for sure Ohio may be close may go to Clinton…but the Ohio Demographic and the Wisconsin demographic practically mirror each other. I see close wins for Barack and ultimately increased momentum - Hillaries negatives are only going to bolster Barack’s campaing. What say you? ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2008, 3:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-march-4th-texas-ohio-vermont-and-rhode-island/439075/2 "2008-02-25T15:05:06Z")
I’m on record elsewhere. Obama by near 10 % in Ohio and perhaps a bit more in Texas. Independents plus that hybrid caucus thing in Texas. ---
**Author:** ![silenus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/silenus/32/166_2.png) [@silenus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/silenus)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2008, 3:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-march-4th-texas-ohio-vermont-and-rhode-island/439075/3 "2008-02-25T15:10:48Z")
Obama by 8% in Ohio. Texas will screw things up and go Clinton on the popular vote, but tie the two in delegate count. Vermont and RI will go solidly Obama. The Texas result will keep Clinton in the race, and there will be much wailing and knashing of teeth until the party bigwigs start twisting arms or defecting wholesale to Obama. March and the first part of April will be very nasty. ---
**Author:** ![Phlosphr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c68b51/32.png) [@Phlosphr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Phlosphr)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2008, 3:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-march-4th-texas-ohio-vermont-and-rhode-island/439075/4 "2008-02-25T15:43:56Z")
[QUOTE=silenus] Obama by 8% in Ohio. Texas will screw things up and go Clinton on the popular vote, but tie the two in delegate count. Vermont and RI will go solidly Obama. The Texas result will keep Clinton in the race, and there will be much wailing and knashing of teeth until the party bigwigs start twisting arms or defecting wholesale to Obama. March and the first part of April will be very nasty. [/QUOTE] I worry about this…the trend is the mor time Obama has in a state the better it get’s for him. Ohio has shown a good lead for Hillary two weeks ago and that lead literally cut in half one week ago. One more week should bode well for Obama. Texas - this is going to be a nail biter, she is either going to bust even with Obama in pop voting and Obama takes the most Delegates, or Obama leads the whole shebang. I really hope the nastiness comes to a grinding halt before April, but we’ll have to see. ---
**Author:** ![Paul\_in\_Qatar](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ccd318/32.png) [@Paul\_in\_Qatar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Paul_in_Qatar)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2008, 3:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-march-4th-texas-ohio-vermont-and-rhode-island/439075/5 "2008-02-25T15:52:40Z")
No doubt that BO will take Rhode Island, Vermont and Ohio. The Hispanic vote in Texas puts that one more in play. She may even take Texas. What hybrid cacti have to do with it is beyond me. ---
**Author:** ![Menocchio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/9de053/32.png) [@Menocchio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Menocchio)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2008, 3:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-march-4th-texas-ohio-vermont-and-rhode-island/439075/6 "2008-02-25T15:53:41Z")
Obama wins Texas by a comfortable margin, but not the blowouts we’ve been seeing recent ~10%. Ohio is too close to call. I’ll be an optimist and say Obama by a hair, but Clinton could just as easily edge him out. Either way, it’ll be close. ---
**Author:** ![EddyTeddyFreddy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eddyteddyfreddy/32/18796_2.png) [@EddyTeddyFreddy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EddyTeddyFreddy)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2008, 3:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-march-4th-texas-ohio-vermont-and-rhode-island/439075/7 "2008-02-25T15:56:19Z")
I hope you guys are right, but a bunch of us New England Patriots fans could tell you something about expecting a sure thing. ☹ ---
**Author:** ![Santo\_Rugger](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e95f7d/32.png) [@Santo\_Rugger](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Santo_Rugger)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2008, 4:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-march-4th-texas-ohio-vermont-and-rhode-island/439075/8 "2008-02-25T16:29:23Z")
[QUOTE=EddyTeddyFreddy] I hope you guys are right, but a bunch of us New England Patriots fans could tell you something about expecting a sure thing. ☹ [/QUOTE] Well, the difference is… aww, shit, you’re right! ☹ Except, to be fair, the Giants actually had people rooting for them. 😉 ---
**Author:** ![EddyTeddyFreddy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eddyteddyfreddy/32/18796_2.png) [@EddyTeddyFreddy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EddyTeddyFreddy)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2008, 5:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-march-4th-texas-ohio-vermont-and-rhode-island/439075/9 "2008-02-25T17:57:26Z")
[QUOTE=Santo Rugger] Except, to be fair, the Giants actually had people rooting for them. 😉 [/QUOTE] Hey – if you look at Obama as the Giants, and Clinton as the Patriots… 😃 ---
**Author:** ![Phlosphr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c68b51/32.png) [@Phlosphr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Phlosphr)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2008, 6:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-march-4th-texas-ohio-vermont-and-rhode-island/439075/10 "2008-02-25T18:01:01Z")
[QUOTE=EddyTeddyFreddy] Hey – if you look at Obama as the Giants, and Clinton as the Patriots… 😃 [/QUOTE] Is there any other way to look at it? I made the comparison somewhere in the _ **Stick a Fork in Her** _ thread…waaay up thread. Obama is the Giants, and Clinton is the Patriots, and it’s already the 4th quarter with a minute 37 left on the clock. Clinton is throwing up hail marys and guess what…They ain’t reach’in their mark! ---
**Author:** ![Giles](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/giles/32/60_2.png) [@Giles](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Giles)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2008, 6:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-march-4th-texas-ohio-vermont-and-rhode-island/439075/11 "2008-02-25T18:12:22Z")
Although I live in Columbus, Ohio, I don’t get to vote (because I’m not a US citizen). However, in the last week I’ve received (recorded) phone calls from Senator Obama and from Michael Coleman (Mayor of Columbus, supporting Obama) telling me how I can vote early in this primary. If the Clinton campaign has missed out on this rallying of the early voters, that alone might get them to lose the vote in Franklin County, and hence in Ohio as a whole. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2008, 7:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-march-4th-texas-ohio-vermont-and-rhode-island/439075/12 "2008-02-25T19:20:19Z")
[Texas, Ohio, Rhode Island and Vermont - March 4th, 2008](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=456511) ---
**Author:** ![Phlosphr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c68b51/32.png) [@Phlosphr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Phlosphr)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2008, 7:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-march-4th-texas-ohio-vermont-and-rhode-island/439075/13 "2008-02-25T19:37:10Z")
Well, I’m not a man of excuses, I posted a dup thread…I should have looked more closely. ---
**Author:** ![Shayna](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shayna/32/17976_2.png) [@Shayna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shayna)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2008, 7:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-march-4th-texas-ohio-vermont-and-rhode-island/439075/14 "2008-02-25T19:47:00Z")
**Phil** , empty your PMs, please. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Phlosphr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c68b51/32.png) [@Phlosphr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Phlosphr)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2008, 7:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-march-4th-texas-ohio-vermont-and-rhode-island/439075/15 "2008-02-25T19:55:23Z")
[QUOTE=Shayna] **Phil** , empty your PMs, please. 🙂 [/QUOTE] It’s clear now 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![dalej42](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@dalej42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dalej42)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2008, 9:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-march-4th-texas-ohio-vermont-and-rhode-island/439075/16 "2008-02-25T21:39:12Z")
[All tied up in Texas](http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/02/25/texas.poll/index.html) ---
**Author:** ![LonghornDave](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/a87d85/32.png) [@LonghornDave](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LonghornDave)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2008, 10:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-march-4th-texas-ohio-vermont-and-rhode-island/439075/17 "2008-02-25T22:45:37Z")
In Texas, I think the popular vote could go either way. My prediction is that Clinton will barely take it. The models I have seen show that Obama will blow her away in delegates though. ---
**Author:** ![Shayna](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shayna/32/17976_2.png) [@Shayna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shayna)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2008, 10:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-march-4th-texas-ohio-vermont-and-rhode-island/439075/18 "2008-02-25T22:59:24Z")
She’s so disorganized in Ohio, I don’t know how she’s going to pull a win out there, either. > [@](#): > > [http://activepaper.olivesoftware.com/Repository/ml.asp?Ref=U0RTS1kvMjAwOC8wMi8yNCNBcjAwMTAz&Mode=HTML&Locale=english-skin-custom](http://activepaper.olivesoftware.com/Repository/ml.asp?Ref=U0RTS1kvMjAwOC8wMi8yNCNBcjAwMTAz&Mode=HTML&Locale=english-skin-custom) > > Obama HQ opens here; Clinton HQ’s start a little rocky > > . . . > > Two rallies were supposed to take place in Sandusky [Ohio] on Saturday to fire up the troops from Clinton’s and Obama’s local camps to get them out in the community to canvass, but the Clinton rally had some problems. > > ``` > The organizers couldn’t make it on time and the crowd eventually dispersed. > > The Obama rally was more successful. > > While the U.S. senator wasn’t there, Regina King, a television and movie star familiar to anyone who’s seen “Ray,” “Jerry Maguire,” and “This Christmas,” shared a few words of encouragement with the audience. > > ``` > > . . . > > Less than half a mile down the road an hour later, the Clinton supporters stood in the cold waiting for someone to let them in. While the crowd eventually trickled away, none of them seemed in the least bit discouraged about their rally falling through. The fans of the New York senator said they had confidence there will other opportunities to promote her. > > . . . > > The Republican sister of one of the Clinton supporters couldn’t help but crack wise Saturday when things fell apart. > > ``` > “Is this how Hillary’s going to run the country?” she said. > > ``` Gee, ya think? ---
**Author:** ![EddyTeddyFreddy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eddyteddyfreddy/32/18796_2.png) [@EddyTeddyFreddy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EddyTeddyFreddy)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2008, 11:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-march-4th-texas-ohio-vermont-and-rhode-island/439075/19 "2008-02-25T23:29:05Z")
“Is this how Hillary’s going to run the country?” Even if her core supporters aren’t asking themselves that, a lot of other Democrats, undecided as yet, will be; so will independents and Republicans dissatisfied with McCain. ---
**Author:** ![Shayna](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shayna/32/17976_2.png) [@Shayna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shayna)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2008, 12:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-march-4th-texas-ohio-vermont-and-rhode-island/439075/20 "2008-02-26T00:05:06Z")
**[Former Cleveland mayor Michael R. White switches from Clinton to Obama](http://blog.cleveland.com/openers/2008/02/former_cleveland_mayor_michael.html)** > [@](#): > > . . . Six months ago, I supported Senator Hillary Clinton. My wife JoAnn and I are friends of the Clintons. President Clinton was only the second elected official, after the assassinations of the 1960s, to give me hope again. Not withstanding his personal transgressions, President Clinton loves America and tried to do as much for the same Americans that the Kennedys and Dr. King were concerned about. But, after watching the primary election process by the day and sometimes by the hour, I decided that I cannot cast my vote for Senator Clinton. > > On March 4th, I’m voting for Barack Obama because I want real change in our America, and he’s made me hopeful that he has the intestinal fortitude to make the change which our country so sorely needs. > > . . . > > Yes, Senator Obama gives me great hope, but hope is not enough when you’re voting for a presidential candidate. I believe Barack Obama has the experience, ability, courage and vision to translate his call for change into a new direction for America just as other great Presidents have in the past. He is no less qualified or able than any other candidate, and the fact that he’s poised to become the Democratic nominee for President is testimony to the good judgment and need for change desired by so many Americans. > > . . . > > I’m sure that next Tuesday John, Bobby and Martin will be looking down upon us in Ohio and wondering if hope is still alive. Make them proud…Yes we can! Nice. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-march-4th-texas-ohio-vermont-and-rhode-island/439075.md?page=2)