# Handicapping March 4th Texas, Ohio, Vermont and Rhode Island. **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [February 25, 2008, 1:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-march-4th-texas-ohio-vermont-and-rhode-island/439075 "2008-02-25T13:59:53Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 10\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Shayna](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shayna/32/17976_2.png) [@Shayna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shayna)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2008, 1:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-march-4th-texas-ohio-vermont-and-rhode-island/439075/21 "2008-02-26T01:17:45Z")
Well, well, lookie here. The latest poll by the Institute of Policy Research at the University of Cincinnati has Obama within 8 points of Hillary Clinton in Ohio. BUT, here’s the question as they asked it: > [@](#): > > “I’m going to read the names of people who are on the Democratic primary ballot for president. Suppose the Democratic primary was being held today and the candidates were Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, Dennis Kucinich and Barack Obama. Which would you vote for?” The results: Clinton 47% Obama 39% **Edwards** 9% For goodness sakes, Edwards isn’t even in the race anymore, so that was a stupid way to phrase the question. I suspect the margin between Clinton and Obama would be much narrower if they had inquired how people would vote between only those two candidates. [Poll](http://www.ipr.uc.edu/PDF/OhioPoll/op022508.pdf) (pdf file) ---
**Author:** ![Phlosphr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c68b51/32.png) [@Phlosphr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Phlosphr)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2008, 2:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-march-4th-texas-ohio-vermont-and-rhode-island/439075/22 "2008-02-26T02:28:26Z")
[QUOTE=Shayna] Well, well, lookie here. The latest poll by the Institute of Policy Research at the University of Cincinnati has Obama within 8 points of Hillary Clinton in Ohio. BUT, here’s the question as they asked it: The results: Clinton 47% Obama 39% **Edwards** 9% For goodness sakes, Edwards isn’t even in the race anymore, so that was a stupid way to phrase the question. I suspect the margin between Clinton and Obama would be much narrower if they had inquired how people would vote between only those two candidates. [Poll](http://www.ipr.uc.edu/PDF/OhioPoll/op022508.pdf) (pdf file) [/QUOTE] Very interesting…I wonder why polling places do that. I know polling is extraordinarily difficult with a standard deviation in most cases only a statistician could love but still, come on people! I suspect they are much closer as well. A friend in Cincinnati recently sent me an email saying there is a large obama headquarters near his work and it is always bustling…Go Bama ---
**Author:** ![Frank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Frank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frank)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2008, 2:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-march-4th-texas-ohio-vermont-and-rhode-island/439075/23 "2008-02-26T02:34:01Z")
[QUOTE=Shayna] For goodness sakes, Edwards isn’t even in the race anymore, so that was a stupid way to phrase the question. [/QUOTE] Edwards is on the ballot. The four names are exactly those who are on the ballot. I think the question was fine. ---
**Author:** ![Phlosphr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c68b51/32.png) [@Phlosphr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Phlosphr)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2008, 2:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-march-4th-texas-ohio-vermont-and-rhode-island/439075/24 "2008-02-26T02:55:02Z")
[QUOTE=Frank] Edwards is on the ballot. The four names are exactly those who are on the ballot. I think the question was fine. [/QUOTE] I just found out something perhaps everyone else knew already. Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign failed to file a full slate of convention delegate candidates for Pennsylvania’s April 22 primary. Basically they though the entire thing would be in the bag by then an it would be clear sailing. LOL!! Jokes on her. ---
**Author:** ![Menocchio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/9de053/32.png) [@Menocchio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Menocchio)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2008, 3:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-march-4th-texas-ohio-vermont-and-rhode-island/439075/25 "2008-02-26T03:47:31Z")
[QUOTE=Phlosphr] I just found out something perhaps everyone else knew already. Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign failed to file a full slate of convention delegate candidates for Pennsylvania’s April 22 primary. Basically they though the entire thing would be in the bag by then an it would be clear sailing. LOL!! Jokes on her. [/QUOTE] Does this mean that she’s \*already \*at a disadvantage in getting delegates? ---
**Author:** ![appleciders](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85f322/32.png) [@appleciders](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/appleciders)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2008, 3:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-march-4th-texas-ohio-vermont-and-rhode-island/439075/26 "2008-02-26T03:52:23Z")
[QUOTE=Phlosphr] I just found out something perhaps everyone else knew already. Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign failed to file a full slate of convention delegate candidates for Pennsylvania’s April 22 primary. Basically they though the entire thing would be in the bag by then an it would be clear sailing. LOL!! Jokes on her. [/QUOTE] Wait- what are the implications of that? ---
**Author:** ![Onomatopoeia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/onomatopoeia/32/4145_2.png) [@Onomatopoeia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Onomatopoeia)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2008, 3:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-march-4th-texas-ohio-vermont-and-rhode-island/439075/27 "2008-02-26T03:58:13Z")
Whatever it means, the powers that be will probably make an accommodation for her if it gets that far. ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2008, 4:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-march-4th-texas-ohio-vermont-and-rhode-island/439075/28 "2008-02-26T04:51:36Z")
[QUOTE=appleciders] Wait- what are the implications of that? [/QUOTE] [Not much, really.](http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5gnSGwOYR_wKh2ki813jmIUIOLrUAD8V1KIB84) Apparently Pennsylvania will give her her full delegates if she wins. > [@](#): > > If Clinton should win more delegate slots than she has candidates in any district, the state committee would fill them with additional Clinton-pledged delegates when it meets in June, the state party’s executive director, Mary Isenhour, said Monday. Still, for a woman who is going to be “Ready on Day One”, you would think she could be bothered to have her campaign fill out the paperwork. Considerably more damning to her organization prowess is the fact that her campign [had no idea that Texas had a hybrid primary](http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/02/17/AR2008021702461_pf.html) until pretty recently. Both Texas and Pennsylvania are cruicial to her campaign and she’s dropped the ball on each. > [@](#): > > Supporters of Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton are worried that convoluted delegate rules in Texas could water down the impact of strong support for her among Hispanic voters there, creating a new obstacle for her in the must-win presidential primary contest. > > Several top Clinton strategists and fundraisers became alarmed after learning of the state’s unusual provisions during a closed-door strategy meeting this month, according to one person who attended. > > What Clinton aides discovered is that in certain targeted districts, such as Democratic state Sen. Juan Hinojosa’s heavily Hispanic Senate district in the Rio Grande Valley, Clinton could win an overwhelming majority of votes but gain only a small edge in delegates. At the same time, a win in the more urban districts in Dallas and Houston – where Sen. Barack Obama expects to receive significant support – could yield three or four times as many delegates. > > “What it means is, she could win the popular vote and still lose the race for delegates,” Hinojosa said yesterday. “This system does not necessarily represent the opinions of the population, and that is a serious problem.” Just more disorganization in the monkey-house which is the Clinton campaign. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2008, 4:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-march-4th-texas-ohio-vermont-and-rhode-island/439075/29 "2008-02-26T04:55:05Z")
> [@](#): > > “This system does not necessarily represent the opinions of the population, and that is a serious problem.” Wait, now they have a problem with that? 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Phlosphr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c68b51/32.png) [@Phlosphr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Phlosphr)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2008, 1:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-march-4th-texas-ohio-vermont-and-rhode-island/439075/30 "2008-02-26T13:54:39Z")
When Clinton Loses in Texas she’ll blame it on the convoluted system. When she loses in Vermont and Rhode Island she’ll say she didn’t expect to win those states anyway - and when she loses in Ohio she’ll puke pea soup and her head will spin…but she’ll keep on truck’in … Not until every delegate is back Obama, not until every nail is in her coffin, will she conceed. It’s sad really, because it will fracture the dems, and it might have an impact on the national election. I wonder if she really cares about that at all? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-march-4th-texas-ohio-vermont-and-rhode-island/439075.md?page=1)