# Handicapping the 2006 Congressional election **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [February 13, 2006, 7:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2006-congressional-election/344327 "2006-02-13T19:57:09Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![Martin\_Hyde](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/47e85d/32.png) [@Martin\_Hyde](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Martin_Hyde)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2006, 2:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2006-congressional-election/344327/41 "2006-02-15T02:01:57Z")
> [@NurseCarmen](#): > > Damn fine break down, and I mostly agree. Here are my caveats: > Minnesota was pretty solid blue in 2004. The Dem primary is a matter of going through the steps, with Wetterling bowing out. And the Republican Kennedy is about as far right as you can go, not a good thing to be in a solidly blue state. I don’t know anything about MN politics so that’s why I just left that one up for grabs. > [@](#): > > The VA Senate race just became interesting, with former-Reagan-Sec-of-the-Navy-turned-Democrat Webb entering the race. He has low name recognition at the moment, but considering he just entered, that’s to be expected. He has quite a resume and is an impressive candidate. Speaking as a Virginian I do not think Allen will lose his seat. . . I may have been hasty in saying he was safe but I think he’ll win by 4-5%. > [@](#): > > I agree that MO might be close, but with Talent already polling below 50% before the muck has even started flying, I think McCaskill might pull that one out. Also, the recent special election had dems taking 2 seats and just missing the third. Why is that impressive? Because the special elections were in 3 of the states conservative district. The republicans should have taken all three in a walk. All of them voted for Bush in 2004 by 60-70+ percent. I try not to put too much credence in polling this far out. For example, after Menendez was appointed in NJ polling showed that voters said they’d elect him to a full term and that they favored him over Thomas Kean 44% to 28%. In more recent polls (the 44-28 was in December, this more recent one being in January) Kean was shown as being favored 42% to 35%, with a large percentage undecided. I’ve not even touched the U.S. House, just labelling all the truly safe districts would take me the better part of an evening, and then trying to break down the elections would be even more difficult considered we’re so far out we have no idea how many of the primaries are going to come down. > [@](#): > > And lastly, TN. Frist won’t win the seat. He’s retiring. Harold Ford looks to be the dem, and Corker the Rep. It looks to be a tight one, but history shows us that lame duck election years tend to break against the party of the president. And if the scandals continue to ooze out of DC, Ford might have a chance here. Again, I want to hold off on Tennessee until Frist actually says he’s not running in the hear and now. I’ve always heard him take the stance that he won’t seak a third term, but I’ve heard Roger Clemens say he’s putting up the cleats about four times now ;). Considering the fact Frist would probably win in a cinch, and his retirement might created a seat-in-play, I wouldn’t be surprised if he might run to help insure the Dems don’t have much of a shot at the Senate. ---
**Author:** ![NurseCarmen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/5daacb/32.png) [@NurseCarmen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NurseCarmen)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2006, 2:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2006-congressional-election/344327/42 "2006-02-15T02:27:08Z")
> [@Martin Hyde](#): > > Again, I want to hold off on Tennessee until Frist actually says he’s not running in the hear and now. I’ve always heard him take the stance that he won’t seak a third term, but I’ve heard Roger Clemens say he’s putting up the cleats about four times now ;). Considering the fact Frist would probably win in a cinch, and his retirement might created a seat-in-play, I wouldn’t be surprised if he might run to help insure the Dems don’t have much of a shot at the Senate. Huh. That’s the first I’ve heard of Frist _not_ retiring. He better be carefull with his presidential aspirations, he wouldn’t want to be seen as a flip-flopper. 😉 Isn’t the primary race for his seat already underway? Does anyone know when the TN Senate has a cut off date to declare? ---
**Author:** ![Airman\_Doors\_USAF](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/e36b37/32.png) [@Airman\_Doors\_USAF](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Airman_Doors_USAF)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2006, 3:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2006-congressional-election/344327/43 "2006-02-15T03:08:16Z")
I’m very confident that, barring any major revelations to the detriment of Casey, Santorum is going to get the gate. If Santorum isn’t safe in a state as conservative as Pennsylvania nobody is. With the Abramoff scandals, the President’s lack of coattails (this being a lame-duck election), and the general sleaziness of the Republican Party over the last few years which people are sick of I think the Democrats have a real good shot at getting a small majority. ---
**Author:** ![Martin\_Hyde](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/47e85d/32.png) [@Martin\_Hyde](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Martin_Hyde)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2006, 3:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2006-congressional-election/344327/44 "2006-02-15T03:30:56Z")
I don’t think it’s very likely the Dems get a small minority in the Senate. A 6-seat swing is a tough thing under any circumstances. They have to win literally every single “contested” election they have, all of their contested seats have to be defended and all of the GOPs contested seats have to be lost. If the Dems pull a majority in the senate I hope people will recognize it for the political marvel that it is. It’ll be a huge upset akin to Truman over Dewey. ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_Captor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/f17d59/32.png) [@Evil\_Captor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Captor)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2006, 1:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2006-congressional-election/344327/45 "2006-02-15T13:35:18Z")
> [@cmkeller](#): > > MilTan: > > It is, but a major distinction between the GOP in '94 and getting the Dems to run against Bush: the GOP '94 nationalized congressional races on _congressional_ issues. They avoided making it an anti-Clinton national campaign. In fact, one of their major campaigning points, a line-item veto law, was something Clinton greatly desired. > > Were they anti-Clinton? Of course. But that wasn’t the rallying point of their coordinated national congressional campaign. Corruption isn’t a Congressional issue? Granted, the White House is plenty corrupt, but as the Abramoff affair is proving, the Congressional Republicans are as corrupt as they come. It’s a national issue, it’s a Congressional issue, it’s a big winner for the Dems, who, although they have not been choirboys historically, look MIGHTY damn good next to the festering pile of sleazebags that constitutes the Republican Congressional leadership. Also, basic competence is a Congressional issue. The Republicans have fucked up left and right this year on the economy, on disaster preparedness, you name it. The Dems still have a nice smell from the Clinton administration, whose hallmarks were peace and prosperity. The Dems can win big on these issues if they have brains enough to promote them. ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_Captor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/f17d59/32.png) [@Evil\_Captor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Captor)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2006, 1:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2006-congressional-election/344327/46 "2006-02-15T13:43:20Z")
[QUOTE=Martin Hyde] The GOP already has to deal to pass legislation. They don’t have a cloture-majority in the Senate. > [@](#): > > They’ll have to deal a lot harder if their majority gets smaller. Right now they can pick off a few maverick Dems to get their legislation passed. If things go in the Dems’ favor … and they probably will … the Pubbies will have to go after more hardcore Dems to get legislation passed. > > > [@](#): > > > > Worst. Idea. Ever. > > > > Congressional elections are won at home over issues at home. To a large degree Congressman don’t lose because of things their national parties do, they can win because of them, though, but that’s mainly during a Presidential election year when a strong Presidential candidate can create political windfall as he travels around the country. > > No, as has already pointed out, nationalizing the Congressional worked beautifully for the Pubbies via the Contract with America. It can work for Democrats, too. > > > [@](#): > > > > Also many Democrats that are running can’t make the “their war” argument when they themselves voted in favor of it in Congress. > > If that were the only issue the Dems have, you might have a point. And besides, everybody knows the Iraq war belongs to Bush and Co. in a way damn few wars have ever belonged to an administration. I guarantee you Iraq > > To win in a congressional election (be it Senate or House) you have to appeal to voters on local issues, you don’t win by running as a national candidate in a state campaign. Successful candidates don’t do that. Olympia Snowe wouldn’t be a strong incumbent in Maine is she was running as a mainline Republican anymore than Byrd would be a strong Dem if he was running on a gun control platform in West Virginia. ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_Captor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/f17d59/32.png) [@Evil\_Captor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Captor)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2006, 1:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2006-congressional-election/344327/47 "2006-02-15T13:45:51Z")
> [@Martin Hyde](#): > > The GOP already has to deal to pass legislation. They don’t have a cloture-majority in the Senate. They’ll have to deal a lot harder if their majority gets smaller. Right now they can pick off a few maverick Dems to get their legislation passed. If things go in the Dems’ favor … and they probably will … the Pubbies will have to go after more hardcore Dems to get legislation passed. > [@](#): > > Worst. Idea. Ever. > > Congressional elections are won at home over issues at home. To a large degree Congressman don’t lose because of things their national parties do, they can win because of them, though, but that’s mainly during a Presidential election year when a strong Presidential candidate can create political windfall as he travels around the country. No, as has already pointed out, nationalizing the Congressional worked beautifully for the Pubbies via the Contract with America. It can work for Democrats, too. > [@](#): > > Also many Democrats that are running can’t make the “their war” argument when they themselves voted in favor of it in Congress. If that were the only issue the Dems have, you might have a point. And besides, everybody knows the Iraq war belongs to Bush and Co. in a way damn few wars have ever belonged to an administration. I guarantee you Iraq will lose the Republicans some votes in Congressional races. No one wants more of this shit, and that’s what a vote for a Republican will get you. ---
**Author:** ![cmkeller](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cmkeller/32/118_2.png) [@cmkeller](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/cmkeller)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2006, 3:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2006-congressional-election/344327/48 "2006-02-15T15:56:55Z")
Evil Captor: > [@](#): > > Corruption isn’t a Congressional issue? Of course it is…in fact, that’s what the GOP pounded the Dems on to win in 1994. You seem to have lost track of the flow of messages and responses that led to that last statement, so I’m going to recap: You posted: Make the election a national referendum on Bush. Martin Hyde posted: Bad idea, congressional elections are won on local issues. Mil Tan responded: The GOP won in 1994 on national issues. To that, I responded that they won on national _Congressional_ issues, not by campaigning against the president. If the Dems can make hay out of Republican congressional malfeasance, then a national strategy definitely has a shot…of they’re organized enough and disciplined enough to stay on-message. But that’s not the subject of the post you responded to. ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_Captor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/f17d59/32.png) [@Evil\_Captor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Captor)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2006, 4:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2006-congressional-election/344327/49 "2006-02-15T16:17:03Z")
> [@cmkeller](#): > > Evil Captor: > > If the Dems can make hay out of Republican congressional malfeasance, then a national strategy definitely has a shot…of they’re organized enough and disciplined enough to stay on-message. But that’s not the subject of the post you responded to. Fair enough. ---
**Author:** ![zamboniracer](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/e9a140/32.png) [@zamboniracer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/zamboniracer)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2006, 4:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2006-congressional-election/344327/50 "2006-02-15T16:58:37Z")
> [@Evil One](#): > > Paul Hackett dropped out of the Ohio Senate race today, leaving Rep. Sherrod Brown as the only candidate left against Mike DeWine. Hackett says he was essentially driven out of the race by Chuck Schumer and Harry Reid. Apparently, Schumer and Reid wanted to avoid a primary. > > So they drive an Iraq war veteran that nearly defeated a Republican in a strong GOP district out of the race in favor of a candidate with a clearly defined liberal record. To me, this smacks of strategic buffoonery. If I were a Democrat, I would be annoyed by this. > > So now the race is a moderate GOP incumbent against a Democrat from the Cleveland area in a GOP dominated state. I would not consider this seat in play. While I wish Hackett had stayed around I wouldn’t be so quick to write off Sherrod Brown. Brown has already won twice in state wide races (for Secretary of State) and he’s originally from Mansfield, not the Cleveland area. ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2006, 5:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2006-congressional-election/344327/51 "2006-02-15T17:18:45Z")
> [@zamboniracer](#): > > While I wish Hackett had stayed around I wouldn’t be so quick to write off Sherrod Brown. Brown has already won twice in state wide races (for Secretary of State) and he’s originally from Mansfield, not the Cleveland area. Hackett was basically forced out due to fundraising issues. His cash-in-hand was low enough that it made clear that Brown would eventually beat him up. In the end, in a big state like Ohio, $$$ for campaigns is a strong controlling factor. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2006, 7:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2006-congressional-election/344327/52 "2006-02-15T19:10:26Z")
> [@cmkeller](#): > > Of course it is…in fact, that’s what the GOP pounded the Dems on to win in 1994. You seem to have lost track of the flow of messages and responses that led to that last statement, so I’m going to recap: > > You posted: Make the election a national referendum on Bush. > Martin Hyde posted: Bad idea, congressional elections are won on local issues. > Mil Tan responded: The GOP won in 1994 on national issues. > To that, I responded that they won on national _Congressional_ issues, not by campaigning against the president. OK – but why wouldn’t campaign against the president work, under current circumstances? ---
**Author:** ![cmkeller](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cmkeller/32/118_2.png) [@cmkeller](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/cmkeller)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2006, 8:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2006-congressional-election/344327/53 "2006-02-15T20:38:59Z")
BrainGlutton: > [@](#): > > OK – but why wouldn’t campaign against the president work, under current circumstances? Because they’re not running for president. They’re running for Congress. Slamming the president leaves their _actual_ opponent pretty clean…even if he did generally back the president. If they’re going to go negative, then it needs to hit the proper target to be effective. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2006, 9:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2006-congressional-election/344327/54 "2006-02-15T21:28:22Z")
> [@cmkeller](#): > > Because they’re not running for president. They’re running for Congress. Slamming the president leaves their _actual_ opponent pretty clean…even if he did generally back the president. If they’re going to go negative, then it needs to hit the proper target to be effective. How did Watergate affect the outcome of the 1974 Congressional election (which, of course, did not take place until after Nixon had resigned)? I’m seriously asking. I’ve done some googling and I can’t seem to find any info, not even in the Wikipedia, on whether the Dems gained or lost net Congressional seats in November 2004. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2006, 9:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2006-congressional-election/344327/55 "2006-02-15T21:30:06Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > I’ve done some googling and I can’t seem to find any info, not even in the Wikipedia, on whether the Dems gained or lost net Congressional seats in November 2004. :smack: " . . . November **1974."** ---
**Author:** ![dalej42](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@dalej42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dalej42)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2006, 9:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2006-congressional-election/344327/56 "2006-02-15T21:50:31Z")
[House](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._House_election%2C_1974) [Senate](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._Senate_election%2C_1974) ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2006, 11:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2006-congressional-election/344327/57 "2006-02-15T23:08:16Z")
> [@John Mace](#): > > But, has anyone taken **Bricker** ’s bet that there will be no net loss of seats for the Pubs? [I did](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=5854775&postcount=35), and that was way before Abramoff, before Plamegate, before Schiavo and all the other Republican high points after the 2004 election. I even offered him $100 per net seat, but [he didn’t trust himself](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=6323258&postcount=135) to pay up if he lost big. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2006, 11:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2006-congressional-election/344327/58 "2006-02-15T23:23:31Z")
> [@dalej42](#): > > [House](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._House_election%2C_1974) > > [Senate](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._Senate_election%2C_1974) Hmmm . . . So, why wouldn’t “running against the president” produce similar gains in 2006? ---
**Author:** ![Pope\_Bob\_The\_Pious](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/97f17d/32.png) [@Pope\_Bob\_The\_Pious](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pope_Bob_The_Pious)\ **Post date:** [February 16, 2006, 12:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2006-congressional-election/344327/59 "2006-02-16T00:26:56Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > Hmmm . . . So, why wouldn’t “running against the president” produce similar gains in 2006? Simple: The situation in 2006 is not even remotely like the situation was in 1974. ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_Captor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/f17d59/32.png) [@Evil\_Captor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Captor)\ **Post date:** [February 16, 2006, 12:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2006-congressional-election/344327/60 "2006-02-16T00:47:09Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > Hmmm . . . So, why wouldn’t “running against the president” produce similar gains in 2006? Because … because … JUST BECAUSE!!! (because Republican partisans would JUST HATE that.) And on a practical note, if the Senate and House Republicans have been voting in lockstep with the Bush Admin. on his issues then it should be very easy to point out that any given Republican Congresscritter has voted for Bush programs right down the line, making HIM or HER as culpable as Bush for all the shit we’ve been through. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2006-congressional-election/344327.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2006-congressional-election/344327.md?page=4)