# Handicapping the 2012 GOP presidential nomination **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [February 12, 2011, 9:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160 "2011-02-12T21:14:10Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 14
**Author:** ![Captain\_Lance\_Murdoch](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/47e85d/32.png) [@Captain\_Lance\_Murdoch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Lance_Murdoch)\ **Post date:** [April 28, 2011, 5:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/261 "2011-04-28T17:14:42Z")
Does Daniels have the “fire” for the run? He doesn’t seem all that psyched about it. His family is said to be opposed tot he idea. In many ways he looks like Pawlenty II. Midwestern governor, seen as less radical than many Republicans. Pawlenty however, has assembled a crack campaign team, Daniels has not. Pawlenty has been on the ground in IA and NH for months building networks, Daniels has not. Pawlenty looks young and athletic while Daniels is 5’7" and half bald. Pawlenty can woo the Christian conservatives as well as the country clubbers. Daniels, not so much. ---
**Author:** ![Gray\_Ghost](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/c0e974/32.png) [@Gray\_Ghost](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gray_Ghost)\ **Post date:** [April 28, 2011, 5:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/262 "2011-04-28T17:24:14Z")
> [@Simplicio](#): > > In addition to the example of Stockman, Paul O’Neill was in the Bush White House at the same time as Daniels and managed to get himself booted over disagreements with Bush. Daniels seemed to have had less of a problem water-carrying for disastrous policies then O’Neill did, in anycase. > > So while its nice that after helping to rip a several hundred billion dollar hole in the US’s budget, he managed to find a couple hundred million to put Indiana in the black, I think its a pretty big stretch to call him a deficit hawk. For anyone not lucky enough to live in the great state of Indiana, his actions have done far more harm then good. I disagree with you that a large share of the blame for the abysmal job W did with government spending should be laid on Daniels. W and Congress were going to enact their policies regardless of what Daniels or OMB had to say. The principled thing then would be to resign, and I do fault him for not resigning when the cuts in his 2.13 trillion dollar budget were largely ignored by Congress. (And signed by W). OTOH, he was gone in June 2003, so even if he was an eager participant in their gargantuan spending, I don’t know how much you can blame him for a lot of the more egregious programs such as the Part D subsidy (introduced in Congress, June 2003), the laughable estimates for costs in Iraq, etc… He did publicly disagree with Lawrence Lindsey’s 100-200 billion dollar cost estimates for the Iraq War, and I don’t know what role he played in Lindsey’s firing soon after. OTOH, Daniels’s estimates of 50-60 billion were only for the first year, and came in at about that number. (51 billion, per wiki). I don’t know what his listed contingencies were in his forecasting. If the thought was that OIF was going to be a punitive expedition/find and kill the Baathists and then go home, then the estimate makes a little more sense, and isn’t the grotesque joke it is today. But it really depends on how much you believe the quoted statement from wiki: > [@](#): > > The operation was estimated to last six months, and did not include a projection of the long-term cost of maintaining a military presence in the region after its immediate occupation. I am suspicious that the quote is a load of ass-covering, self-serving garbage. Still, I would not use his experience as OMB director to say that the guy would be totally uncommitted to cutting spending were he elected to the Presidency. ---
**Author:** ![Simplicio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c37758/32.png) [@Simplicio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Simplicio)\ **Post date:** [April 28, 2011, 5:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/263 "2011-04-28T17:31:44Z")
> [@Captain\_Lance\_Murdoch](#): > > Pawlenty however, has assembled a crack campaign team, Daniels has not. Pawlenty has been on the ground in IA and NH for months building networks. Its sort of an interesting question how late in the game someone can start a primary campaign and still hope to win. Obviously some people have a lot of already established name recognition, political connections and fundraising infrastructure and so can show up at the last minute and still make up for lost time. Sarah Palin for example, why I don’t think she’ll run, could probably still wait another month or two and then still be able to make up for lost time due to her popularity amongst the GOP faithful. But for the Daniels and Pawlenty’s and Huckabees of the world, though, I think we’re getting pretty close to the “put up or shut up” time. Pawlenty has already started to raise money, lock down supporters and campaign workers and get his name out there as the “not Mitt Romney choice for President” in places like Iowa and North Carolina. If Daniels and Huckabee want to run, I think they need to do so in the next few weeks before they’ve been out-paced by Pawlenty. ---
**Author:** ![Simplicio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c37758/32.png) [@Simplicio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Simplicio)\ **Post date:** [April 28, 2011, 5:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/264 "2011-04-28T17:37:39Z")
> [@Gray\_Ghost](#): > > I disagree with you that a large share of the blame for the abysmal job W did with government spending should be laid on Daniels. W and Congress were going to enact their policies regardless of what Daniels or OMB had to say. Certainly W and Congress are ultimately responsible, and W was certainly going to pass some large tax-cuts regardless of what others told him. Still, I think that if enough of his advisers started yelling at him that the cuts he proposed were nuts, he would’ve dialed them back. Obviously O’Neills oposition wasn’t enough, but Daniels + O’Neill might’ve been. After all, I seriously doubt that W sat down with an excel sheet and worked out the size of the tax-cuts himself. Presumably economic advisers like Daniels (or at least the people under him) did that. Had he come up with smaller numbers as those that were the largest tax-cuts that were economically sustainable, then the harm to the country may have been mitigated. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [April 28, 2011, 6:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/265 "2011-04-28T18:53:59Z")
> [@Captain\_Lance\_Murdoch](#): > > Pawlenty however, has assembled a crack campaign team, Daniels has not. Pawlenty has been on the ground in IA and NH for months building networks Done him [a hell of a lot of good so far](http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres2012/primary/rep/ia/), it has. ---
**Author:** ![Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e99b99/32.png) [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diogenes_the_Cynic)\ **Post date:** [April 28, 2011, 7:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/266 "2011-04-28T19:11:54Z")
With all of T-Paw’s prep work, he still can’t seem to draw any real interest from Republican voters and has consistently been upstaged even in his own state by Michele Bachmann. He actually is not well-liked in Minnesota, left the state with a giagantic budget deficit (which he tried to paper over with Obama stimulus money) and has little or nothing in the way of charisma or personality. He is mean and hateful enough to not be _objectionable_ to GOP Primary voters, but I don’t see him as having any crossover appeal to centrists. Fiscally, he was incompetent as hell in Minnesota, so it will be hard for him to run on that (though you can count on him to say he balanced Minnesoata’s budget without raising taxes - both huge lies). ---
**Author:** ![wonky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wonky/32/393_2.png) [@wonky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wonky)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2011, 7:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/267 "2011-04-29T19:19:16Z")
Rumor has it that Huckabee has [decided not to run](http://processstory.com/2011/04/27/huckabee-won%E2%80%99t-run/). If true, I don’t think this is a shocker for anyone. ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Lance\_Murdoch](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/47e85d/32.png) [@Captain\_Lance\_Murdoch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Lance_Murdoch)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2011, 5:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/268 "2011-04-30T17:23:15Z")
Bachmann opened her mouth today. That never goes well. > [@](#): > > “I tell you this story because I think in our day and time, there is no analogy to that horrific action,” she said, referring to the Holocaust. “But only to say, we are seeing eclipsed in front of our eyes a similar death and a similar taking away. It is this disenfranchisement that I think we have to answer to.” She’s comparing taxes to the Holocaust. ---
**Author:** ![Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e99b99/32.png) [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diogenes_the_Cynic)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2011, 5:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/269 "2011-04-30T17:44:25Z")
Does she have any idea what “eclipsed” means? ---
**Author:** ![Gagundathar](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/a183cd/32.png) [@Gagundathar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gagundathar)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2011, 5:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/270 "2011-04-30T17:50:21Z")
> [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](#): > > Does she have any idea what “eclipsed” means? Apparently not. Her statement was contrary to her apparent thesis. ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Lance\_Murdoch](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/47e85d/32.png) [@Captain\_Lance\_Murdoch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Lance_Murdoch)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2011, 12:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/271 "2011-05-01T00:37:54Z")
Does she know what “disenfranchisement” means? ---
**Author:** ![Simplicio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c37758/32.png) [@Simplicio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Simplicio)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2011, 12:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/272 "2011-05-01T00:41:50Z")
> [@Captain\_Lance\_Murdoch](#): > > Does she know what “disenfranchisement” means? Apparently, its what Hitler did to the Jews during the Holocaust. Which is technically correct, I guess. ---
**Author:** ![Crane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crane/32/3495_2.png) [@Crane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Crane)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2011, 6:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/273 "2011-05-07T18:56:24Z")
Bachmann is seeking the votes of the ignorant, and she is gaining them. She upstages T-Paw at every turn and he has no defense against her. BS wins and Bachmann’s got it. Palin is sitting back and watching the field self destruct. Crane ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2011, 7:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/274 "2011-05-07T19:44:38Z")
> [@](#): > > Palin is sitting back and watching the field self destruct. So is everyone else. What’s special about Palin that way? ---
**Author:** ![Crane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crane/32/3495_2.png) [@Crane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Crane)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2011, 11:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/275 "2011-05-07T23:37:47Z")
Ummm…everyone? How about the folks who showed up for the debate? What’s special about Palin is that she would inject some interest into the Republican primary. Crane ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2011, 2:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/276 "2011-05-09T14:59:15Z")
So John McCain is in Iraq today. Recently he was in Libya. This is purely idle speculation but is it possible the weakness of the Republican field has him considering another run for the White House? I realize he will be 75 in August but all this globetrotting and keeping his name in the media has made me wonder what he may be thinking. Probably not but still… ---
**Author:** ![Simplicio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c37758/32.png) [@Simplicio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Simplicio)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2011, 3:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/277 "2011-05-09T15:03:23Z")
McCain’s big on taking trips to visit overseas military operations. I wouldn’t read too much into it. He’s too old and got his butt-kicked too last time around to have any illusions of running again. Plus if he ran, every Dem ad would include the clip of him calling Obama naive for saying he’d go after Osama if he found out he was in Pakistan. ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Lance\_Murdoch](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/47e85d/32.png) [@Captain\_Lance\_Murdoch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Lance_Murdoch)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2011, 9:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/278 "2011-05-12T21:35:38Z")
Well we now know how Romney will deal with the health care issue. It’s right for MA, but wrong for America. And he defended the individual mandate to boot. This stance will be a tough one to sell in his party. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [May 15, 2011, 3:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/279 "2011-05-15T03:31:10Z")
The Huckster’s out, as noted in another thread in this forum. The big question is, which candidate picks up the support of all those people, especially in Iowa, who wanted the Huckster as the nominee? I’d say the Bachmann/Palin Overdrive has a pretty good shot, and if T-Paw is going to win over _anyone_, he’s got to start there. ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Lance\_Murdoch](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/47e85d/32.png) [@Captain\_Lance\_Murdoch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Lance_Murdoch)\ **Post date:** [May 15, 2011, 4:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/280 "2011-05-15T04:00:16Z")
I say T-Paw and Bachmann split it. Eventually. They have the strongest Christian credentials and that was Huck’s entire appeal. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160.md?page=13) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160.md?page=15)