# Handicapping the 2012 GOP presidential nomination **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [February 12, 2011, 9:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160 "2011-02-12T21:14:10Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 17
**Author:** ![Rhythmdvl](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/85f322/32.png) [@Rhythmdvl](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rhythmdvl)\ **Post date:** [May 22, 2011, 7:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/321 "2011-05-22T07:08:57Z")
> [@Lantern](#): > > However he does come across as presidential in a way that almost no one else in the field does and I think that will help him win the nomination. I wonder how that will pan out in the primaries. IIRC, Bush cultivated a very different demeanor than the Hollywood presidential archetype. Not wholly divergent, but there are videos comparing his speaking style in Texas and on the national campaign trail/presidency. Much more folksy, much more comrade-like (I don’t mean that in the Soviet sense), much more accessible. It’s a style that seems to come naturally to Palin and Bachmann. ---
**Author:** ![Simplicio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c37758/32.png) [@Simplicio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Simplicio)\ **Post date:** [May 22, 2011, 7:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/322 "2011-05-22T07:22:47Z")
> [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](#): > > And the herd just keeps getting thinner - [Mitch Daniels is out.](http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/05/22/daniels-decides-against-republican-presidential-bid/?hp) > > According to the article in the New York Times linked above: > It’s beginning to really look more and more like this is Romney’s nomination to lose. I guess he doesn’t really care how much attention the announcement gets, since he’s not running. But still, 1:30am on a Sunday? Thats usually when you announce your Chief of Staff was caught running a cock-fighting ring or something. ---
**Author:** ![Onomatopoeia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/onomatopoeia/32/4145_2.png) [@Onomatopoeia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Onomatopoeia)\ **Post date:** [May 22, 2011, 9:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/323 "2011-05-22T09:37:36Z")
Has Romney even announced yet? If so, I must have missed it. If not, what happens if he doesn’t? If I were Romney, I’d consider waiting until 2016 when, perhaps, the Tea Party’s power has waned. Let one of the loonies go against Obama now and lose. The party will be more amenable to voting for a moderate by next election. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [May 22, 2011, 10:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/324 "2011-05-22T10:58:28Z")
> [@Lantern](#): > > Sometimes it does and sometimes it doesn’t Please give instances where it has. Other than Ross Perot, I’m drawing a blank. > [@](#): > > but it does generally contribute to someone being seen as a heavyweight which is what we are talking about. Well what **I** was talking about was your claim that “Romney…has more experience and gravitas and **is therefore more electable**.” (Actually, I was originally pointing out that Pawlenty has a lot more experience than Romney.) That requires votes. > [@](#): > > Romney’s private sector achievements were outstanding and he can claim that they have given him an insight into how the US economy works. This argument will be especially be persuasive to the corporate wing which IMO still calls the shots in the GOP. Now this is just crazy talk. The money wing of the party has already taken this into account, and is still on the fence. (Remember at this point in 1999, they were all-in with George W. Bush.) They’re looking for something else - a combination of nominatability (if that’s a word, or even if it isn’t), electability and fealty, I expect. Note that the money wing of the GOP was firmly behind business failure and general dim bulb GWB coming out the gate in 1999, and was gettinig behind the truly dumb-as-a-post George Allen for President in 2008 until he committed macacacide in the fall of 2006. ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Lance\_Murdoch](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/47e85d/32.png) [@Captain\_Lance\_Murdoch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Lance_Murdoch)\ **Post date:** [May 22, 2011, 1:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/325 "2011-05-22T13:43:34Z")
Daniels getting out is a big boost to Pawlenty. Daniels is a former governor of a medium sized, midwestern state who has positioned himself as a fiscal conservative. He would have been fighting with Pawlenty over many of the same voters. Now we will wait to see what Rick Perry does as he seems to be the last wild card left in the deck. If he fails to jump in we have Bachmann, T-Paw and Romney as the big 3 candidates. And Bachmann would really have no chance of winning the nomination although she could make some waves in Iowa. ---
**Author:** ![Bijou\_Drains](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bijou_drains/32/2814_2.png) [@Bijou\_Drains](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bijou_Drains)\ **Post date:** [May 22, 2011, 2:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/326 "2011-05-22T14:31:59Z")
Weird thing about Bachmann is her official website mentions nothing about her law degrees. I guess being a lawyer does not play well with her fans. ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [May 22, 2011, 3:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/327 "2011-05-22T15:08:18Z")
She was an IRS lawyer! ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [May 22, 2011, 5:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/328 "2011-05-22T17:45:15Z")
> [@](#): > > Has Romney even announced yet? If so, I must have missed it. If not, what happens if he doesn’t? What if they had a primary and nobody came? ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [May 23, 2011, 3:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/329 "2011-05-23T03:48:34Z")
> [@Bijou\_Drains](#): > > Weird thing about Bachmann is her official website mentions nothing about her law degrees. I guess being a lawyer does not play well with her fans. > [@Richard\_Parker](#): > > She was an IRS lawyer! The legitimacy of her law degrees is also somewhat murky. From page 6 of this thread: > [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > I’m beginning to think that there’s a real possibility that Michelle Bachmann will get an early endorsement… > > … from what I’m hearing, she’s more like “Palin with brains and an education”. At least, that’s the way she comes across to people who speak with her off-camera. > [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](#): > > What brains? What education? She has a fake law degree from Oral Roberts University. > [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > Aside from her law degree from Oral Roberts, she has an LL.M in tax law from William and Mary law school, which is a highly ranked law school in the U.S. (ranked #10 by U.S. News and World Report’s law school ranking guide). She’s not an idiot. > > By the way, she does not have a ‘fake’ law degree. Oral Roberts is a reasonably well-regarded university with full accreditation. She would never have gotten into W&M if her law degree was ‘fake’. She also spent five years as a practicing tax attorney, working for the commisioner of the IRS. Fake law degree indeed. > [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](#): > > Oral Roberts has transcended the crazy Christian school thing and is, as **Sam** points out, a very good school. It’s been one of the Princeton Review’s [top colleges in the Western region](http://www.oru.edu/news/oru_news/20100804_bestinthewest.php) 3 of the last 4 years. > That being said, the law school never progressed beyond provisional ABA accreditation (and had its provisional accreditation pulled for a while because it required students to declare that they would practice only Christ’s law, or somesuch). > > So it’s not a fake law degree, but it’s not a very good one either. Her LLM is much more impressive. > [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](#): > > William and Mary doesn’t offer an LL.M program (well it does, but only for foreign students)… > > …For the record, her official bio on her [Congressional sute](http://bachmann.house.gov/Biography/) lists only Anoka high school and Winona University. > > The Law school at Oral Roberts was unaccredited at the time Bachmann went there. > [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](#): > > It doesn’t offer one now, but that doesn’t mean it didn’t offer one then. You’d have to find a copy of their 1988 catalogue to prove that. > > …the J.D. Coburn School of Law was unaccredited from 1981 to 1983. It was provisionally accredited from 1983 to 1985, when it was shut down due to lack of funding, and its assets transferred to what is now Regent University… > > What _is_ interesting is that [she supposedly graduated from Oral Roberts law in _1986_.](http://projects.washingtonpost.com/congress/members/B001256) > [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > She practiced tax law for the IRS. I’m assuming that means she got an LL.M from _somewhere_, and that her law degree was recognized. If not, then you’d think by now her opponents would have dug up the dirt on this and raked her over the coals on it, and she’d be facing disbarment and possible legal charges. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [May 23, 2011, 1:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/330 "2011-05-23T13:35:28Z")
Interesting take from the new [Pew Political Typology](http://people-press.org/2011/05/04/beyond-red-vs-blue-the-political-typology/) (Thread [here](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=607706)): > [@](#): > > **Looking Ahead to 2012** > > In the 2012 presidential race, Barack Obama holds a 47%-to-37% lead over a generic Republican opponent among all registered voters, and preferences largely mirror Obama’s overall job approval ratings. A year-and-a-half ahead of Election Day, nearly every group either solidly backs or opposes Obama by substantial margins. > > Solid Liberals are Obama’s strongest supporters: 95% say they would like to see the president reelected. Obama also enjoys overwhelming support from the other majority Democratic groups (78% among Hard-Pressed Democrats and 75% among New Coalition Democrats), and substantial support among the Democratic-leaning Post-Moderns (60% reelect Obama, 16% prefer a Republican). > > Staunch Conservatives support a generic GOP candidate by about as wide a margin as Solid Liberals back Obama; 91% support a Republican candidate. Somewhat smaller majorities of Main Street Republicans (73%) and Republican-leaning Libertarians (70%) also prefer a Republican over Obama. The GOP-oriented Disaffecteds favor a GOP nominee over Obama by roughly two-to-one (48% vs. 22%). > > In most cases, these early 2012 preferences mirror the way each of these groups voted in the Obama-McCain matchup in 2008. For example, Staunch Conservatives backed McCain over Obama by 87% to 1%, while Solid Liberals backed Obama over McCain by 87% to 2%. (For more on how typology groups voted in recent elections, see Section 1: The Political Typology.) > > But there is one key independent voting bloc that has moved more firmly into the Republican camp since 2008: Libertarians. This group backed McCain over Obama by a 39-point margin in 2008 (53% to 14%), but prefer a generic Republican over Obama today by a 63-point margin (70% to 7%). > > **Evaluating the Possible GOP Field** > > In the race for the GOP nomination, several of the leading Republican contenders fare well across most –but not all – GOP groups. Mitt Romney’s weakest support is among Disaffecteds, while Libertarians are less likely than other groups to back Mike Huckabee or Sarah Palin. Newt Gingrich does his best among Staunch Conservatives but his support wavers within other groups; and support for Ron Paul is concentrated among Libertarians. > > While Staunch Conservatives are the most firmly committed to voting Obama out of office, they have yet to agree on a preferred candidate: 22% say Huckabee would be their first choice, 20% Romney, 18% Gingrich, and 13% Palin. Palin and Gingrich garner less support among Main Street Republicans, 24% of whom name either Romney or Huckabee as their preferred nominee at this point. > > To win in 2012, a Republican nominee will need to reach beyond these base groups and appeal to the Republican-leaning Libertarians and Disaffecteds as well. No GOP candidate at this point has broad appeal among both of these voting blocs. Romney leads among Libertarians (27% first choice), with Ron Paul also garnering significant support. By comparison, Disaffecteds prefer Palin or Huckabee over Romney and other potential Republican candidates. ---
**Author:** ![furt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/439d5e/32.png) [@furt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/furt)\ **Post date:** [May 23, 2011, 3:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/331 "2011-05-23T15:50:30Z")
> [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](#): > > And the herd just keeps getting thinner - [Mitch Daniels is out.](http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/05/22/daniels-decides-against-republican-presidential-bid/?hp) > > It’s beginning to really look more and more like this is Romney’s nomination to lose. Indeed, and Obama’s election. I give Romney very little chance to beat Obama; Daniels would have had an excellent shot. Look for a lot of pressure on Paul Ryan to get into it. ---
**Author:** ![Jas09](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d07c76/32.png) [@Jas09](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jas09)\ **Post date:** [May 23, 2011, 4:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/332 "2011-05-23T16:05:05Z")
> [@furt](#): > > Look for a lot of pressure on Paul Ryan to get into it. Paul Ryan already passed up on the Senate seat opened up by Kohl’s retirement. If he’s not ready to run for Senate, what makes you think he’s ready to run for President? I think lots of people underestimate the level of planning and groundwork required for a full-scale presidential run - look at Fred Thompson’s campaign to see what a “drafted” candidate looks like. Of the undeclared candidates only Romney (if you consider him undeclared) and Palin have any legitimate shot of winning, IMO. _Maybe_ Perry, but I’m not sure he gets any play in IA or NH, and he doesn’t seem to have any sort of national team in place (see the “drafted” comment above). The last couple of weeks couldn’t have been any better for Tim Pawlenty, as far as I can tell. I might go so far as to declare him the favorite, or perhaps co-favorite with Romney. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [May 23, 2011, 4:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/333 "2011-05-23T16:23:02Z")
> [@Captain\_Lance\_Murdoch](#): > > Daniels getting out is a big boost to Pawlenty. Daniels is a former governor of a medium sized, midwestern state who has positioned himself as a fiscal conservative. He would have been fighting with Pawlenty over many of the same voters. Well, it’s a big _opportunity_ for Pawlenty. He’s still got to convince people to actually, you know, _vote_ for him, or even say in polls that they prefer him to the other candidates. But yeah, the door’s wide open for Pawlenty; all he’s got to do is show he can walk through it. > [@](#): > > Now we will wait to see what Rick Perry does as he seems to be the last wild card left in the deck. Speaking of guys with a wide-open door in front of them: if he has any aspiration to be President, he’ll never have a better opportunity. I agree with Nate Silver that he could pretty much sweep to the nomination, given the quality of the field. And as long as the battle for the nomination didn’t reveal serious concerns about him, he’d probably be a stronger opponent to Obama in 2012 than anyone currently in the game. And if the job situation hasn’t improved much by 2012, the GOP nominee will have a tailwind. > [@](#): > > If he fails to jump in we have Bachmann, T-Paw and Romney as the big 3 candidates. And Bachmann would really have no chance of winning the nomination although she could make some waves in Iowa. I’m thinking that the best analogy to Bachmann’s potential role in this primary season is Gene McCarthy in 1968. Too far left to win the nomination, but still won a bunch of primaries. Bachmann could do that from the right side. And in the process, she could KO Pawlenty, who needs Iowa or South Carolina, both of which Bachmann should run well in. Daniels’ decision not to run creates another problem for Romney: now that the field has shrunk considerably, he no longer has much excuse for doing a low-profile campaign in Iowa. He’s unlikely to win there, but he needs to show up and play anyway. ---
**Author:** ![Tom\_Scud](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/f08c70/32.png) [@Tom\_Scud](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tom_Scud)\ **Post date:** [May 23, 2011, 4:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/334 "2011-05-23T16:35:51Z")
> [@Captain\_Lance\_Murdoch](#): > > Now we will wait to see what Rick Perry does as he seems to be the last wild card left in the deck. If he fails to jump in we have Bachmann, T-Paw and Romney as the big 3 candidates. > [@RTFirefly](#): > > Speaking of guys with a wide-open door in front of them: if he has any aspiration to be President, he’ll never have a better opportunity. From a couple Texas liberals, I’ve heard that the reason he isn’t running is because there’s another door he doesn’t want wide open. (Or more bluntly, that he’s a closeted gay guy.) Pure Glenn Beck-level rumor, but there it is. ---
**Author:** ![furt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/439d5e/32.png) [@furt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/furt)\ **Post date:** [May 23, 2011, 4:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/335 "2011-05-23T16:45:10Z")
> [@Jas09](#): > > Paul Ryan already passed up on the Senate seat opened up by Kohl’s retirement. If he’s not ready to run for Senate, what makes you think he’s ready to run for President? 1. Because being President is just an eensy bit more influential than being Junior Senator from Wisconsin. If he lost his seniority in the house, it might well make the senate a step down for him. 2. I didn’t say he will run; I said there will be people pressuring him to do it (media types, party leaders, etc.). I suspect he won’t, and in the end the GOP will be stuck with a stiff like Pawlenty or Romney. ---
**Author:** ![Profound\_Gibberish](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/65b543/32.png) [@Profound\_Gibberish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Profound_Gibberish)\ **Post date:** [May 23, 2011, 4:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/336 "2011-05-23T16:52:36Z")
Rick Perry would have a hard time running against a $25 Billion budget deficit that occurred during his administration from his own policies. He also has zero personality which would not repsond well to normal (ie, non-Texan) voters. I also hope that once people hear “Republican Governor from Texas” they will run for the shelters and realize what a losing proposition that has been in the past and will be in the future. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [May 23, 2011, 5:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/337 "2011-05-23T17:12:38Z")
And I don’t think there’s any doubt that Texas is going to go Republican, anyway, no matter who the party runs. Why run a Texan if you can run someone from a swingy state (or at least a swingy region of the country) and maybe pull it solidly into your column? ---
**Author:** ![Jas09](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d07c76/32.png) [@Jas09](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jas09)\ **Post date:** [May 23, 2011, 6:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/338 "2011-05-23T18:20:26Z")
> [@furt](#): > > 1. Because being President is just an eensy bit more influential than being Junior Senator from Wisconsin. If he lost his seniority in the house, it might well make the senate a step down for him. > > 2. I didn’t say he will run; I said there will be people pressuring him to do it (media types, party leaders, etc.). I suspect he won’t, and in the end the GOP will be stuck with a stiff like Pawlenty or Romney. Gotcha. I’m a bit curious why you consider him “not a stiff” when compared to Pawlenty and Romney. They all seem to have pretty much the same level of personality (Pawlenty perhaps a bit less, although Ryan was pretty damn flat in his SOTU response) and the same basic appearance (upper-middle-age white guys with TV hair). ---
**Author:** ![gonzomax](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e8c25b/32.png) [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)\ **Post date:** [May 23, 2011, 6:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/339 "2011-05-23T18:43:57Z")
[MPR: Pawlenty accepts campaign finance violation ruling](http://news.minnesota.publicradio.org/features/200210/11_khoom_pawlenty/) T- Paw is a dirty little politician who works for big money. he is a user of situation ethics. he makes them up as he goes along. The midwest has some over the top right wingers in charge. He is like the others. I don’t believe he ever got 50 percent of the vote. But once they are in charge they act like they have a mandate to make wholesale changes. ---
**Author:** ![furt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/439d5e/32.png) [@furt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/furt)\ **Post date:** [May 23, 2011, 8:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/340 "2011-05-23T20:05:01Z")
> [@Jas09](#): > > Gotcha. > > I’m a bit curious why you consider him “not a stiff” when compared to Pawlenty and Romney. They all seem to have pretty much the same level of personality (Pawlenty perhaps a bit less, although Ryan was pretty damn flat in his SOTU response) and the same basic appearance (upper-middle-age white guys with TV hair). No, he’s not dynamic or exciting (though he’s certainly younger and fresher than Romney), but none of the current GOP candidates are. But that’s fine because the GOP trying to out-cool Obama would be a horrible mistake. Obama appeals to the idealist in people, and it’ll be very hard to beat him at his own game. They need a credible realist. Their best political approach in 2012 is to say that electing the idealist hasn’t helped the economy, and the arrogant young guy instead has just driven our deficit through the roof because he spent a zillion dollars on giveaways chasing those starry ideals. To sell that message, you need 1. a sober, responsible, humble guy with fiscal credibility, but 2. not so lethargic as to look like corpse when put next to Obama , and 3. not someone who fits into the easily-dismissed tropes of Republicans as rednecks, fundamentalists and/or Big Business. Romney loses on all three (old, CEO guy who created a health plan just like Obama’s in Massachusetts). Pawlenty is better, but he just seems dull and has too much whiff of fundamentalism to me. Ryan to me projects the air of the accountant who’s breaking the bad news to you. He’s not trying to inspire you – just the opposite – and he’s not on some messiah kick. Not saying he’d beat Obama, but someone like him is their best chance. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160.md?page=16) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160.md?page=18)