# Handicapping the 2012 GOP presidential nomination **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [February 12, 2011, 9:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160 "2011-02-12T21:14:10Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 19
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [May 24, 2011, 7:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/361 "2011-05-24T19:51:53Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > Whoa, I had heard about the Usual Suspect talking heads saying that, but I didn’t realize that Giuliani did, too. You’d think that he, of all people, would remember that one. Let’s not forget that his nominee for leader of Homeland Security went to jail, and also used an apartment meant for Ground Zero workers as a love nest. Good judge of character, that one. ---
**Author:** ![Zakalwe](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/zakalwe/32/270_2.png) [@Zakalwe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zakalwe)\ **Post date:** [May 24, 2011, 11:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/362 "2011-05-24T23:59:59Z")
Wow. I had totally forgotten that I put that list together, wonder how I did… Here’s how the scoring works. The candidates are identified by my original prediction: (NR=No intention of running) (EC=Exploratory committee, but not serious) (R=Running) Answers in the (NR) or ® categories are worth a point (plus or minus). Answers in the (EC) are worth half a point (it’s really a chickenshit category anyway). **Right on! (1pt)** Tim Pawlenty® - A win. Mitt Romney ® - Duh. Donald Trump(NR) - Did anybody really think The Hair was serious? **Correctumundo! (.5pt)** Newt Gingrich(EC) - Called the committee right, still waiting to see how serious. I think it’s a PAC/money thing. Buddy Roemer(EC)- Has announced his EC. Gary E. Johnson(EC) - When one Libertarian is just not enough… Rick Santorum(EC) - Only in bizarro world does he have a shot, but that won’t stop Ole Frothy Fecal Matter from running, NO SIR! **Seriously, who can’t even be assed to form an EC?(-.5pt)** Paul Ryan(EC) - Appears to be out. Rand Paul(EC) - I know it’s not official yet, but Dad’s running so I’ll take the loss. Haley Barbour(EC) - Says he’s out. Doesn’t really surprise me, but I figured he’d at least try Iowa before dropping. George Pataki(EC) - Honestly, don’t know what I was thinking here. My bad. John Thune(EC) - Says “Not it”. I don’t feel bad about this one since I didn’t even remember that he was a possible candidate. **I was drunk!(-1pt):** Ron Paul(NR) - Hmmm…does The Huckster and Daniels both not running count as a sea change? Mitch Daniels® - Bailed! Missed this one. I’m still a little shocked Mike Huckabee® - Dammit, missed this one too. But who am I to argue with God? Jon Huntsman, Jr.(NR) - Is running, no win here. **Still waiting - could go either way(0pts)** Michele Bachmann(NR) - I think she’s bucking for VP not POTUS, but I probably got this one wrong. Sarah Palin(NR) - Jury out, but word is that I called this one correctly. SNL may not recover… John R. Bolton(NR) - I want to see this one be wrong, because it’ll be _fun_! Rudy Giuliani(EC) - Word is might be running. Not going to win anything, but hey, paycheck! Judd Gregg(EC) - Says he’s running, but hasn’t actually, ya know, done anything about it. Steve King(EC) - Man I loved Salem’s Lot! Oh, not that Steve King… Bob Riley(EC) - Depends on whether or not Scarborough can talk him into it or not. **Out of left field** Herman ‘Citizen’ Cain - Yeah, me too. Who? Roy “10 Commandments” Moore - Too stupid to be really entertaining. PALATR is not a challenge. Andy Martin - Who may actually be Orly Taitz in drag. Dude, the Birther thing is sooooo 2010. Fred Karger - Gay GOP Presidential candidate. Yeah, I don’t really get it either. It’s like saying ‘Catholic Muslim’. So my current score is: -1.5 pts. Hey, is that good enough to end up on a talk show? ---
**Author:** ![Onomatopoeia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/onomatopoeia/32/4145_2.png) [@Onomatopoeia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Onomatopoeia)\ **Post date:** [May 25, 2011, 3:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/363 "2011-05-25T03:47:44Z")
> [@Zakalwe](#): > > Fred Karger - Gay GOP Presidential candidate. Yeah, I don’t really get it either. It’s like saying ‘Catholic Muslim’. I laughed. 😃 ---
**Author:** ![wonky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wonky/32/393_2.png) [@wonky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wonky)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2011, 3:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/364 "2011-05-26T15:02:24Z")
[ > [@](#): > > Mitt Romney (17%) and Sarah Palin (15%) now lead a smaller field of potential Republican presidential candidates in rank-and-file Republicans’ preferences for the party’s 2012 nominee. Ron Paul, Newt Gingrich, and Herman Cain essentially tie for third, with Cain registering 8% support in his initial inclusion in Gallup “trial heat” polling. Notably, 22% of Republicans do not have a preference at this point. ]([Romney, Palin Lead Reduced GOP Field for 2012](http://www.gallup.com/poll/147806/Romney-Palin-Lead-Reduced-GOP-Field-2012.aspx?utm_source=alert&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=syndication&utm_content=morelink&utm_term=Politics)) This is the closest comparison poll from Gallup that I can find, from May of 2007: [ > [@](#): > > The latest poll finds little change in Republicans’ nomination preferences. Giuliani has held a significant lead over McCain in each poll since February. In the current poll, 34% of Republicans and independent-leaning Republicans name Giuliani as their top choice for the party’s 2008 presidential nomination, while 20% choose McCain. Fred Thompson – the actor and former Tennessee senator who said he is considering a candidacy – is chosen by 13% of Republicans. Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, who has also hinted at a possible candidacy, gets 8% support, and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney gets 7%. All other candidates score at 2% or lower. ]([Clinton Solidifies Lead Among Democrats, Giuliani Still Tops GOP Field](http://www.gallup.com/poll/27523/Clinton-Solidifies-Lead-Among-Democrats-Giuliani-Still-Tops-GOP-Field.aspx)) ---
**Author:** ![Crane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crane/32/3495_2.png) [@Crane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Crane)\ **Post date:** [May 27, 2011, 2:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/365 "2011-05-27T14:01:27Z")
It has always been, and still is, a Palin/Romney race. Palin will squash Romney early and move on to the nomination. Crane ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [May 27, 2011, 5:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/366 "2011-05-27T17:49:42Z")
> [@Crane](#): > > It has always been, and still is, a Palin/Romney race. Palin will squash Romney early and move on to the nomination. I’d be delighted to bet against Palin’s winning the nomination. Picking up enough delegates in enough states to win a major-party nomination is something that requires organization. While it’s true that this doesn’t mean the candidate him/herself needs to be organized, the candidate needs to hire someone who can organize the large-scale enterprise that a campaign for a major party’s nomination inevitably is, and give them the money and authority to do their job. So far, there’s nothing to indicate that Palin has even that modest degree of self-discipline. Maybe there should be little more to a campaign than showing up, giving speeches, and getting votes, but that’s not the way it is. But I think that’s the way Palin sees it. ---
**Author:** ![Crane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crane/32/3495_2.png) [@Crane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Crane)\ **Post date:** [May 27, 2011, 6:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/367 "2011-05-27T18:05:31Z")
Actually, Palin is running a very disciplined campaign. Media exposure is a negative for Palin, so there has been none. Her bus tour is personal and what you will see of it on the media is the patriotic propaganda on the outside of the bus. She also has a movie being released that will reinforce the base belief that the media is the enemy. Palin has hired some high powered help. They are running a skilled, aloof campaign that promotes her strengths - celibrity outsider maverick image - and avoids her weakness - media exposure. Discipline? - Perhaps you’d like to compare her campaign to that of Gingrich. Crane ---
**Author:** ![appleciders](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85f322/32.png) [@appleciders](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/appleciders)\ **Post date:** [May 27, 2011, 6:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/368 "2011-05-27T18:28:28Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > I’d be delighted to bet against Palin’s winning the nomination. Picking up enough delegates in enough states to win a major-party nomination is something that requires organization. > > While it’s true that this doesn’t mean the candidate him/herself needs to be organized, the candidate needs to hire someone who can organize the large-scale enterprise that a campaign for a major party’s nomination inevitably is, and give them the money and authority to do their job. > > So far, there’s nothing to indicate that Palin has even that modest degree of self-discipline. Maybe there should be little more to a campaign than showing up, giving speeches, and getting votes, but that’s not the way it is. But I think that’s the way Palin sees it. I agree. Palin is too polarizing, even among the GOP, to win the nomination. The GOP nearly always nominates the most moderate figure in the primaries (McCain, Dole, H. W. Bush, Reagan). She’s got high unfavorables even among her own party. Roger Ailes hates her, and I suspect that she won’t get favorable coverage even from Fox. I’d bet against Palin for the nomination. ---
**Author:** ![Crane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crane/32/3495_2.png) [@Crane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Crane)\ **Post date:** [May 27, 2011, 6:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/369 "2011-05-27T18:39:22Z")
You are supporting my point - she has to remain aloof from the media. The more they attack, the better she looks to her base. Crane ---
**Author:** ![Tom\_Scud](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/f08c70/32.png) [@Tom\_Scud](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tom_Scud)\ **Post date:** [May 27, 2011, 6:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/370 "2011-05-27T18:44:59Z")
> [@appleciders](#): > > The GOP nearly always nominates the most moderate figure in the primaries (McCain, Dole, H. W. Bush, Reagan). Reagan? ---
**Author:** ![appleciders](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85f322/32.png) [@appleciders](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/appleciders)\ **Post date:** [May 27, 2011, 7:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/371 "2011-05-27T19:44:07Z")
> [@Tom\_Scud](#): > > Reagan? Not as strong an example as the others, maybe, but he’s not _that_ far right. He did allow Congress to raise taxes, and as Governor of California he actually supported gay rights. I’m not a fan, but as he ran in the primary he wasn’t that far right. ---
**Author:** ![smithsb](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smithsb/32/12107_2.png) [@smithsb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/smithsb)\ **Post date:** [May 27, 2011, 8:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/372 "2011-05-27T20:48:23Z")
Regan was a centerist. Some highlights. Raised taxes 11 times in 8 years. Union President and member. Passed MediCal while Governor. Raised taxes in California. Tripled the Federal Budget deficit. Massively grew the size of the Federal Government Liberalized abortion laws while Governor. Granted amnesty to 3 million undocumented immigrants. So, Yes Reagan. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [May 27, 2011, 9:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/373 "2011-05-27T21:57:33Z")
> [@](#): > > They are running a skilled, aloof campaign that … avoids her weakness - media exposure. Except that avoiding media exposure is the exact opposite of a campaign. I mean, by that measure, I’m running a better Presidential campaign than she is, since I’m managing to not get any media exposure at all. ---
**Author:** ![wonky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wonky/32/393_2.png) [@wonky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wonky)\ **Post date:** [May 27, 2011, 9:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/374 "2011-05-27T21:59:09Z")
I actually love the idea of Palin running a campaign in which she is utterly, blessedly, silent. I hope she campaigns forever. ---
**Author:** ![Crane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crane/32/3495_2.png) [@Crane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Crane)\ **Post date:** [May 27, 2011, 10:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/375 "2011-05-27T22:45:13Z")
Chronos, Perhaps, but you are not touring the early primary states in a red, white and blue bus. Crane ---
**Author:** ![wonky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wonky/32/393_2.png) [@wonky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wonky)\ **Post date:** [May 27, 2011, 10:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/376 "2011-05-27T22:51:27Z")
> [@Crane](#): > > Chronos, > > Perhaps, but you are not touring the early primary states in a red, white and blue bus. > > Crane He could be and we just don’t know. Chronos has my vote! ---
**Author:** ![yissplan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/y/43a26b/32.png) [@yissplan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/yissplan)\ **Post date:** [May 27, 2011, 11:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/377 "2011-05-27T23:49:56Z")
I think predicting Palin is tricky. She’s the type of person who is like “Hey if God is sending me signs pointing to my destiny as a 2012 candidate, then You BETCHA I’m gonna run.” Palin ducks and weaves even more than McCain, and at this point I’m betting that even she doesn’t know what she’s going to do yet. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2011, 12:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/378 "2011-05-28T00:11:46Z")
But touring key states doesn’t mean anything without media exposure. I mean, you need _some_ exposure for folks to even know to show up at your public speaking events, and then you need coverage of those events in order for them to mean anything to anyone beyond the few thousand who show up to them. ---
**Author:** ![gonzomax](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e8c25b/32.png) [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2011, 4:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/379 "2011-05-28T16:07:50Z")
I was reading the new front runner is Giuliani. When you have a front runner ,a parrot that squawks 911 over and over , it shows what a terrible selection you have. He has many scandals to explain if his ego allows him to join the 7 dwarfs. ---
**Author:** ![Crane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crane/32/3495_2.png) [@Crane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Crane)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2011, 9:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/380 "2011-05-28T21:18:31Z")
Giuliani? You jest! Crane [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160.md?page=18) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160.md?page=20)