# Handicapping the 2012 GOP presidential nomination **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [February 12, 2011, 9:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160 "2011-02-12T21:14:10Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 23
**Author:** ![Crane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crane/32/3495_2.png) [@Crane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Crane)\ **Post date:** [June 7, 2011, 11:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/441 "2011-06-07T23:01:09Z")
Jim, That is certainly possible, but I believe that if Palin chooses not to run then her career as a political celebrity is over. She has to prop up her image with some substance. Once her numbers fade FOX will drop her like it did Beck. She’s on a 90 day leash. Crane ---
**Author:** ![JimH52](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f17d59/32.png) [@JimH52](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JimH52)\ **Post date:** [June 7, 2011, 11:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/442 "2011-06-07T23:07:16Z")
> [@Crane](#): > > Jim, > > That is certainly possible, but I believe that if Palin chooses not to run then her career as a political celebrity is over. She has to prop up her image with some substance. > > Once her numbers fade FOX will drop her like it did Beck. She’s on a 90 day leash. > > Crane The day she finally goes away for good, will be a very good day. ---
**Author:** ![Zakalwe](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/zakalwe/32/270_2.png) [@Zakalwe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zakalwe)\ **Post date:** [June 7, 2011, 11:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/443 "2011-06-07T23:55:45Z")
> [@Crane](#): > > Diogenes, > > Why would she have to face the media? Her pitch is based on the idea that they set her up and twist her statements. She can refuse to debate on the grounds that it’s all an insider trap. > > Look at the poll numbers. She has eliminated Gingrich, topped Pawlenty, and controlled the media by saying nothing - and she isn’t even running. Looks like a great campaign to me. > > Crane It’s the primary with a crowded field. Once it mano-a-mano, there’s only two people can make news: you or your opponent. She can’t concede the coverage at that point and as soon as she tries to get coverage, she’s toast. ---
**Author:** ![JimH52](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f17d59/32.png) [@JimH52](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JimH52)\ **Post date:** [June 7, 2011, 11:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/444 "2011-06-07T23:59:26Z")
If I were a betting man, my money would be on Romney. With his business background, and the way he bought the Olympics back, he should be the choice for the GOP. But stranger thing… ---
**Author:** ![Crane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crane/32/3495_2.png) [@Crane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Crane)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2011, 2:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/445 "2011-06-08T02:38:33Z")
No doubt you are correct. But, Romney has to survive the primary battle, Palin and the fruitcakes can destroy him. I’ve listened to the fruitcake argument - Romney is not a Christian, Romney is an establishment insider, Romney invented ObamaCare, Romney is not a true Conservative. Palin is one of us. The fruitcakes believe that stuff and they vote in the primaries. Crane ---
**Author:** ![Chefguy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chefguy/32/138_2.png) [@Chefguy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chefguy)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2011, 4:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/446 "2011-06-08T04:14:05Z")
> [@Captain\_Lance\_Murdoch](#): > > Pawlenty made a major economic position statement today. It’s full of corkers. He would get rid of the Post Office, Amtrak and any good or service you can find on Google that is provided by the government. Oh, and there will be huge tax cuts as well. > > I take this as a sign that Palin and Trump have been bogarting all media attention so T-Paw had to pull out something big to get noticed. It may be working as this is prominently displayed on the NY Times site right now (but of course, conservatives don’t have any use for the Times and I don’t know how big a story it is elsewhere.) > > This could help win T-Paw some admiration and attention amongst conservatives but these stances will cost him in the general election if he should actually win the nomination. Yeah, those economic ideas have worked so well in the past. So we reduce government spending, which is code for “fire a bunch of people” and that’s going to help consumer spending and reduce unemployment? Have any of these morons ever read an economics book? :rolleyes: ---
**Author:** ![Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e99b99/32.png) [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diogenes_the_Cynic)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2011, 4:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/447 "2011-06-08T04:42:15Z")
It should probably be mentioned that Pawlenty has no compunction about being as heartless as he says he will be. I work with disabled people in Minnesota, and he repeatedlycut funding to those people - people who are truly the most helpless and vulnerable - w’re talking profoundly disabled in some cases - multiple times. He truly has no conscience. His budget cuts have actually affected my salary. I’ve had to take two pay cuts because of that prick (and better me than have to further reduce services to our clients). I’d rather see Sarah Palin get elected than T-Paw. That’s how much I despise him. From what I’ve heard from those who have inside knowledge of the state legislature, I’m not alone in that. The guy is a ruthless, self-serving careerist who would push hsi own grandmother in front of a bus if it helped him politically. ---
**Author:** ![Crane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crane/32/3495_2.png) [@Crane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Crane)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2011, 11:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/448 "2011-06-08T11:52:29Z")
In a word - Republican. Crane ---
**Author:** ![Mollie\_Magill](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mollie_magill/32/20882_2.png) [@Mollie\_Magill](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mollie_Magill)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2011, 1:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/449 "2011-06-08T13:14:17Z")
> [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](#): > > It should probably be mentioned that Pawlenty has no compunction about being as heartless as he says he will be. I work with disabled people in Minnesota, and he repeatedlycut funding to those people - people who are truly the most helpless and vulnerable - w’re talking profoundly disabled in some cases - multiple times. He truly has no conscience. His budget cuts have actually affected my salary. I’ve had to take two pay cuts because of that prick (and better me than have to further reduce services to our clients). I’d rather see Sarah Palin get elected than T-Paw. That’s how much I despise him. > > From what I’ve heard from those who have inside knowledge of the state legislature, I’m not alone in that. The guy is a ruthless, self-serving careerist who would push hsi own grandmother in front of a bus if it helped him politically. Luckily, I’ve seen raw potatoes that are polling better than Pawlenty. ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2011, 5:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/450 "2011-06-08T17:17:54Z")
> [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](#): > > The guy is a ruthless, self-serving careerist who would push hsi own grandmother in front of a bus if it helped him politically. Isn’t that SOP for most politicians of all hues, alas? ---
**Author:** ![JimH52](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f17d59/32.png) [@JimH52](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JimH52)\ **Post date:** [June 9, 2011, 2:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/451 "2011-06-09T02:46:03Z")
> [@Crane](#): > > No doubt you are correct. But, Romney has to survive the primary battle, Palin and the fruitcakes can destroy him. > > I’ve listened to the fruitcake argument - Romney is not a Christian, Romney is an establishment insider, Romney invented ObamaCare, Romney is not a true Conservative. Palin is one of us. > > The fruitcakes believe that stuff and they vote in the primaries. > > Crane It will be interesting to see just how far to the right Romney will go, in order to win the nomination. If he drift too far, he may loose the Independents. ---
**Author:** ![Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/try2b_comprehensive/32/65_2.png) [@Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Try2B_Comprehensive)\ **Post date:** [June 9, 2011, 2:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/452 "2011-06-09T02:57:07Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > Isn’t that SOP for most politicians of all hues, alas? It is rumored that some are capable of integrity… ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Lance\_Murdoch](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/47e85d/32.png) [@Captain\_Lance\_Murdoch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Lance_Murdoch)\ **Post date:** [June 9, 2011, 4:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/453 "2011-06-09T16:07:24Z")
> [@Simplicio](#): > > I guess, though two years ago, the same thing was part of the official GOP platform, the sitting Republican President believed the same thing (granted they weren’t in any huge rush to do anything about it) and the GOP Presidential nominee had recently been one of the prime movers behind a cap-and-trade plan. I guess the reaction to Romneys statement will be a good measure of how much the GOP has changed in the last two years. Rush Limbaugh absolutely trashed Romney over global warming on his radio show. “Bye, Bye nomination” were some of his choice words for Mitt. Of course Rush doesn’t get get to pick the nominee by himself, but he is the leading voice of the right and his opinion still carries a lot of heft even though McCain won without his blessing. ---
**Author:** ![Simplicio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c37758/32.png) [@Simplicio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Simplicio)\ **Post date:** [June 10, 2011, 1:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/454 "2011-06-10T01:06:44Z")
> [@Captain\_Lance\_Murdoch](#): > > Rush Limbaugh absolutely trashed Romney over global warming on his radio show. “Bye, Bye nomination” were some of his choice words for Mitt. Of course Rush doesn’t get get to pick the nominee by himself, but he is the leading voice of the right and his opinion still carries a lot of heft even though McCain won without his blessing. Rush didn’t like Dole either. And supported Buchannan vs Bush I in 1992. So he’s 1 for 4 as far as supporting winning GOP primary candidates. Plus its not like he was ever going to be a big Romney supporter Global Warming or not. Which is kinda my point, Romney’s best bet for the primary is to appeal to the more moderate Republicans and hope there’s still enough of them left to give him the win (at least if some of the other Republicans manage to split the hard-core conservative vote). Limbaugh and Co. are never going to support him (well, at least not before he wins the nomination and goes up against Obama). As recently as two years ago, the GOP was still nominating moderates (or at least candidates with moderate records), so its not that bad a strategy, and he’s never going to convince people he’s more conservative then Bachmann or Cain or even Pawlenty, even if he scoffs at Global Warming with every breath between now and the GOP convention. ---
**Author:** ![JimH52](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f17d59/32.png) [@JimH52](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JimH52)\ **Post date:** [June 10, 2011, 1:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/455 "2011-06-10T01:20:23Z")
> [@Simplicio](#): > > Rush didn’t like Dole either. And supported Buchannan vs Bush I in 1992. So he’s 1 for 4 as far as supporting winning GOP primary candidates. Plus its not like he was ever going to be a big Romney supporter Global Warming or not. > > Which is kinda my point, Romney’s best bet for the primary is to appeal to the more moderate Republicans and hope there’s still enough of them left to give him the win (at least if some of the other Republicans manage to split the hard-core conservative vote). Limbaugh and Co. are never going to support him (well, at least not before he wins the nomination and goes up against Obama). As recently as two years ago, the GOP was still nominating moderates (or at least candidates with moderate records), so its not that bad a strategy, and he’s never going to convince people he’s more conservative then Bachmann or Cain or even Pawlenty, even if he scoffs at Global Warming with every breath between now and the GOP convention. All that… ---
**Author:** ![Crane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crane/32/3495_2.png) [@Crane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Crane)\ **Post date:** [June 10, 2011, 2:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/456 "2011-06-10T02:53:01Z")
The more Romney talks the lower he drifts in the polls. Pawlenty is doing even worse. They still share the charisma of a wet cigar butt. Palin is still sitting on the side lines watching the field self-destruct. Crane ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [June 10, 2011, 3:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/457 "2011-06-10T03:07:54Z")
> [@Captain\_Lance\_Murdoch](#): > > Rush Limbaugh absolutely trashed Romney over global warming on his radio show. “Bye, Bye nomination” were some of his choice words for Mitt. Of course Rush doesn’t get get to pick the nominee by himself, but he is the leading voice of the right and his opinion still carries a lot of heft even though McCain won without his blessing. Rush then did a 180 on McCain after he nominated Palin for VP, Rush congratulated McCain and he even putt the McCain/Palin logo on his site. And I think that was part of the reason why McCain did go for Palin, he needed the fruitcake vote. > [@Crane](#): > > Palin and the fruitcakes. The most horrifying band name! ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [June 10, 2011, 4:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/458 "2011-06-10T04:17:03Z")
I would now put about a 25% probability on the prospect of Paul Ryan entering the race. Conservatives are pushing him more and more, and he refuses to say that he won’t run - he’ll just say “I have no plans to run right now”. ---
**Author:** ![pseudotriton\_ruber\_ruber](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/a9a28c/32.png) [@pseudotriton\_ruber\_ruber](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pseudotriton_ruber_ruber)\ **Post date:** [June 10, 2011, 9:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/459 "2011-06-10T09:05:00Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > I would now put about a 25% probability on the prospect of Paul Ryan entering the race. Conservatives are pushing him more and more, and he refuses to say that he won’t run - he’ll just say “I have no plans to run right now”. So that means you would put 3 to 1 odds against Ryan entering? I’ll take that bet for $100. Deal? ---
**Author:** ![Crane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crane/32/3495_2.png) [@Crane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Crane)\ **Post date:** [June 10, 2011, 11:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/460 "2011-06-10T11:16:31Z")
A Paul Ryan candidacy is DOA. I do not believe he will waste his time. Crane [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160.md?page=22) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160.md?page=24)