# Handicapping the 2012 GOP presidential nomination **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [February 12, 2011, 9:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160 "2011-02-12T21:14:10Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 28
**Author:** ![Tugboater1970](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/0ea827/32.png) [@Tugboater1970](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tugboater1970)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2011, 3:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/541 "2011-06-20T03:02:03Z")
Alright, let’s see then we must stay on topic exactly & not give an opinion on a related matter to the discussion. I apologize for that hopefully one day I could become a sexual intellectual such as yourself. Y’all have a good evening. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2011, 4:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/542 "2011-06-20T04:08:50Z")
The Civil Rights Act is a related matter. Affirmative action isn’t. Sexual intellectual? ---
**Author:** ![Least\_Original\_User\_Name\_Ever](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/e480ec/32.png) [@Least\_Original\_User\_Name\_Ever](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Least_Original_User_Name_Ever)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2011, 4:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/543 "2011-06-20T04:15:17Z")
> [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](#): > > The Civil Rights Act is a related matter. Affirmative action isn’t. > > Sexual intellectual? A sexual tyrannosaurus. Just like me. ---
**Author:** ![waterj2](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/858c86/32.png) [@waterj2](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/waterj2)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2011, 4:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/544 "2011-06-20T04:36:22Z")
> [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](#): > > The Civil Rights Act is a related matter. Affirmative action isn’t. > > Sexual intellectual? AKA a [fucking know-it-all](http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=sexual%20intellectual). ---
**Author:** ![Merijeek](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f05b48/32.png) [@Merijeek](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Merijeek)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2011, 1:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/545 "2011-06-20T13:53:59Z")
> [@waterj2](#): > > AKA a [fucking know-it-all](http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=sexual%20intellectual). But his rhymed! And we all know advice that rhymes is the best advice! PAUL 2012! Fuck you, I got mine! -Joe ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2011, 2:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/546 "2011-06-20T14:05:39Z")
That doesn’t rhyme. Thanks, **wj.** ---
**Author:** ![Merijeek](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f05b48/32.png) [@Merijeek](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Merijeek)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2011, 6:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/547 "2011-06-20T18:06:16Z")
> [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](#): > > That doesn’t rhyme. > > Thanks, **wj.** Sorry, that was meant to be a bumper sticker. Not a clever rhyme. -Joe ---
**Author:** ![42fish](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/4/b487fb/32.png) [@42fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/42fish)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2011, 1:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/548 "2011-06-21T13:33:21Z")
> [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](#): > > That doesn’t rhyme. Howzabout “Vote for Paul I got mine, fuck you all” ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [June 23, 2011, 5:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/549 "2011-06-23T17:31:48Z")
Looks like [Pawlenty’s campaign isn’t going well](http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/some-of-tim-pawlentys-top-aides-working-for-little-or-no-pay-source-says/2011/06/22/AG9ltVgH_story.html): > [@](#): > > At least five top advisers to former Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty have been working for little or no pay for several months, a campaign source said Wednesday. > > The news establishes with more certainty the emerging portrait of Pawlenty as struggling to keep up with the larger and better-funded operation of his main rival for the Republican presidential nomination, former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney. ---
**Author:** ![DoctorJ](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/doctorj/32/2904_2.png) [@DoctorJ](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DoctorJ)\ **Post date:** [June 23, 2011, 7:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/550 "2011-06-23T19:43:28Z")
Nate Silver (of 538) tweeted his odds a few days ago: > [@](#): > > If I were setting odds on GOP, would be about: Romney 7-4, T-Paw 4-1, Perry 6-1, Bachmann 9-1, Huntsman 25-1, Palin 25-1, field 9-1. I think he’s being a little too generous to Pawlenty, who seems incapable of generating excitement and only looks sillier as he tries. But otherwise it isn’t bad. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [June 23, 2011, 7:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/551 "2011-06-23T19:59:19Z")
Odds translate into probabilities as (second number) / (sum of two numbers), right? Because it doesn’t look like those come close to adding up. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [June 23, 2011, 8:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/552 "2011-06-23T20:13:50Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > Odds translate into probabilities as (second number) / (sum of two numbers), right? Because it doesn’t look like those come close to adding up. They don’t add to exactly 1, but pretty close: Romney 4/11 = .3636 T-Paw 1/5 = .2 Perry 1/7 = .1429 Bachmann 1/10 = .1 Field 1/10 = .1 Huntsman 1/26 = .0385 Palin 1/26 = .0385 Sum: 4922/5005 = .9834 ---
**Author:** ![Tom\_Scud](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/f08c70/32.png) [@Tom\_Scud](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tom_Scud)\ **Post date:** [June 23, 2011, 8:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/553 "2011-06-23T20:16:31Z")
> [@DoctorJ](#): > > Nate Silver (of 538) tweeted his odds a few days ago: > > I think he’s being a little too generous to Pawlenty, who seems incapable of generating excitement and only looks sillier as he tries. But otherwise it isn’t bad. Also way too generous to Huntsman, who doesn’t really deserve to be broken out of “field”. ---
**Author:** ![Cyberhwk](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/7993a0/32.png) [@Cyberhwk](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cyberhwk)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2011, 1:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/554 "2011-06-24T01:50:29Z")
With his more moderate views on Gay Marriage, Iraq and having served in Obama’s administration, Nate Silver also [dropped the I-word](http://twitter.com/#!/fivethirtyeight/status/83725275451490304) with regards to Huntsman. ---
**Author:** ![foolsguinea](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foolsguinea/32/14751_2.png) [@foolsguinea](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/foolsguinea)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2011, 3:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/555 "2011-06-25T03:10:44Z")
> [@Cyberhwk](#): > > With his more moderate views on Gay Marriage, Iraq and having served in Obama’s administration, Nate Silver also [dropped the I-word](http://twitter.com/#!/fivethirtyeight/status/83725275451490304) with regards to Huntsman. The l-word (L-word)? Oh, the I-word (i-word)! Well, making Huntsman look independent is a good way to get Huntsman elected. ---
**Author:** ![Recovering\_Republican](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/d2c977/32.png) [@Recovering\_Republican](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Recovering_Republican)\ **Post date:** [June 27, 2011, 11:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/556 "2011-06-27T11:51:22Z")
Here’s my breakdown- Romney- The establishment’s boy, he was an awful candidate in 2008, he’s an awful candidate now. his strategy is to bypass Iowa and play for the moderate side of the street. Palin- Probably not running. I think she’s waiting to see if this new propaganda film will enhance her image. Then most of her followers will go to Bachmann. She might sell out and endorse Romney later in the proces. Gingrich- Dead and buried. Might stick around to Iowa so he can say he was a contender, but he’s done. Perry- Might be a comprimise candidate between the Tea Party and Establishment. Bachmann- The Tea Party’s girl. Besides Palin, she’s the only one they seem enthusiastic about. Guiliani- Stay down, Rudy. Pawlenty- Doesn’t seem to be catching fire. Huntsman- Are you sure you’re in the right party, Guy? ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [June 27, 2011, 4:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/557 "2011-06-27T16:49:09Z")
My quick takes: 1. Romney is gradually strengthening his hold on the ‘default candidate’ position. He can certainly still be brought down, but the longer it keeps on not happening, the more he deprives oxygen (and money) from the other only moderately crazy GOP candidates, which really just means Pawlenty, since Huntsman’s campaign isn’t going anywhere anyway. 2. If Rick Perry runs, Pawlenty’s candidacy is toast. T-Paw’s only shot is to be the guy who’s acceptable to both wings of the GOP and has some sort of record to run on. Perry’s got all that, and already there’s more enthusiasm for Perry in the GOP than there ever was for Pawlenty. Given that T-Paw’s campaign’s already apparently having serious money problems, it’s hard to see why anyone votes for Pawlenty if Perry jumps in. 3. It’s time to start taking Michele Bachmann’s chances seriously: she pulled 22% in the first [Des Moines Register Iowa Poll](http://caucuses.desmoinesregister.com/2011/06/27/iowa-poll-on-gop-field-detailed-questions-results/) of this cycle, essentially tied with Romney who had 23%. And another 18% listed her as their second choice, well ahead of anyone else in the field. She also had easily the best Favorable/Unfav. rating at 65-12, with 31% having a ‘very favorable’ view of her (no one else had over 19% ‘very favorable’). 4. I think the chances that Sarah Palin can pull together a coherent campaign are rapidly converging on zero. There’s really no reason to break her out from ‘field’ anymore in the odds. She still is polling second to Romney in national polls, but I don’t think that’ll be true in three months. 5. Huntsman might as well give up and go home. There just aren’t enough only-moderately-crazy GOP voters for Romney, Rick Perry, and Pawlenty to leave him many voters. Dump him back in ‘field’ as well. 6. Don’t know what to make of Herman Cain’s chances, but he’s totally batshit crazy, with a big side helping of ignorant. 7. Don’t know what to make, really, of Perry’s chances either until he actually starts running\*. But if he’s gonna run, he needs to get a move on, before Teabaggers get too comfortable with Bachmann as a candidate. \*That doesn’t mean ‘until he declares his candidacy.’ That means ‘until he starts doing the things that candidates do’ - i.e. spending significant time in early primary states, participating in debates, and so forth. ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [June 27, 2011, 4:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/558 "2011-06-27T16:53:57Z")
And from over the Atlantic: Romney: Mr Bland. Not a Leader. Palin: wants the VP slot. Gingrich: passed it. Guiliani: burned out. Karger: start channelling Reagan more and stop campaigning on the gay issue! (And I only know of him because of his mention here). Others: who? Are they really campaigning or laying down markers for 2016? ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [June 27, 2011, 5:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/559 "2011-06-27T17:41:49Z")
> [@](#): > > 1. Huntsman might as well give up and go home. There just aren’t enough only-moderately-crazy GOP voters for Romney, Rick Perry, and Pawlenty to leave him many voters. Dump him back in ‘field’ as well. His goals are still attainable, and he’d be a fool to give up now. He doesn’t have a chance of actually _winning_ any of the early primary states, but if he can put in a respectable showing while the clear candidate (probably Romney, or maybe Perry) emerges, and if Obama goes on to win, then he’s set for 2016. As a rule of thumb, I’d say that what he needs is to get a larger share of the vote than the difference between the top two candidates: That would be enough to make his post-withdrawal endorsement meaningful. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [June 27, 2011, 6:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/560 "2011-06-27T18:58:32Z")
At the moment: Romney: Would be the prohibitive favorite if enough people could stand him. He might as well tack to the center now because the right wing hates his guts and always will. His best hope is that enough challengers divide up the anti-Romney vote until his nomination is inevitable. Bachmann: If the right wing settles on her, she’s in. Her trouble now is splitting the anti-Romney votes with others. As long as Sarah Palin doesn’t split the MILF vote with her, she could definitely be the last one standing other than Mitt. Huntsman: He’s suffering from lack of oxygen and attention. Every Palin tweet from her bunker generates 10 times the buzz of any of his speeches. Will never shake the stigma of having been in the Obama administration. Pawlenty: Like the guy in Sixth Sense, everyone knows he’s dead but him. Gingrich: Even he knows he’s dead. Time to start the search for wife #4. Paul: His cult will be back in 2016, just like him. If the voters want batshit crazy, they’ll take it in a prettier package. Perry: Too late. The whackosphere is coalescing around Bachmann. Cain: Are you serious? With the Teahadists having a four year panic attack over a black guy in the White House, the Republicans would ever nominate a black guy. Not to mention he’s batshit crazy and a flaming bigot, to boot. Palin: Running for billionaire, not president. G911iani: Makes the Cain campaign look plausible. It’s Romney or Bachmann. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160.md?page=27) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160.md?page=29)