# Handicapping the 2012 GOP presidential nomination **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [February 12, 2011, 9:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160 "2011-02-12T21:14:10Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![Duke](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e8c25b/32.png) [@Duke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Duke)\ **Post date:** [February 16, 2011, 6:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/41 "2011-02-16T18:00:02Z")
> [@furt](#): > > Predictions: > Palin will not run. > > Gary Johnson will run and make noise, pulling ~10% in New Hampshire. > > Romneycare will prove too much to overcome. > > Mike Huckabee will do worse than the media expects. > > Mitch Daniels will be the nominee. I’d agree with all of this, although given that it’s early days yet. Daniels is by no means a perfect Presidential candidate (although who is?), but he seems a solid one. Lack of name recognition would seem to be his biggest mountain to climb right now. Of course all this is moot if he decides not to run. I wouldn’t take that as a given. ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [February 16, 2011, 6:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/42 "2011-02-16T18:08:36Z")
> [@Cyberhwk](#): > > I don’t think I’ve heard him seriously mentioned since he had a poor performance doing the Republican Response at the SOTU a year or two ago. People were trying to puff him up again this past summer as the Voice Of Competence during the Gulf oil leak. But, since then, most people are treating the oil leak as a distant memory and the Coast Guard has issued a variety of findings that Jindal’s vaunted (and expensive) sand barriers were either [worthless](http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/nationworld/2013698835_oil17.html?syndication=rss) or an actual liability and Jindal was reduced to [calling the Coast Guard liars](http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0111/Jindal_pushes_back_on_oil_spill_claims.html) when they reported that Jindal was keeping a section of the coast dirty for PR purposes. > [@](#): > > “Coast Guard responders watched Governor Jindal – and the TV cameras following him – return to what appeared to be the same spot of oiled marsh day after day to complain about the inadequacy of the federal response, even though only a small amount of marsh was then oiled. When the Coast Guard sought to clean up that piece of affected marsh, Governor Jindal refused to confirm its location,” charges the report in Chapter 5. ---
**Author:** ![gonzomax](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e8c25b/32.png) [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)\ **Post date:** [February 16, 2011, 6:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/43 "2011-02-16T18:33:20Z")
> [@Cisco](#): > > [LOL WUT](http://imagemacros.files.wordpress.com/2009/06/lol_wut1.jpg). > > Joe always makes noise about running for higher office. He’s a publicity whore. It will never, ever happen. He spends all his time dodging scandals as Sheriff. If he ran for national office, they’d catch up to him. Plus the old windbag will be 80 by the time of the election. It’s a miracle he keeps getting elected Sheriff (by a lower margin each time); he’s less serious about giving that up than Sarah Palin is about running for President. Guliani pulled it off. ---
**Author:** ![Cisco](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/ccd318/32.png) [@Cisco](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cisco)\ **Post date:** [February 16, 2011, 6:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/44 "2011-02-16T18:43:22Z")
> [@gonzomax](#): > > Guliani pulled it off. What’ll a cup of tea run me in China this morning? ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Lance\_Murdoch](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/47e85d/32.png) [@Captain\_Lance\_Murdoch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Lance_Murdoch)\ **Post date:** [February 16, 2011, 8:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/45 "2011-02-16T20:03:33Z")
I still think it will be Pawlenty. Palin will run. She’s making it obvious. She could do quite well In IA too. This is not the Iowa election after all, it is the Republican caucuses. Sure she would get creamed in a state-wide contest, but her rabid followers will surely show up for these meetings. Caucuses can skew the importance of rather small, but devoted groups of followers. And remember this is the state where Pat Robertson beat George Bush. The Republicans here are very right wing. Tim Pawlenty will also likely make a good showing in Iowa with the corn farmers and traditional Republicans. If Huckabee runs (and I think that is not as likely as others seem too) He will need to win again in IA or he will be out early. Romney will get his ass handed to him in IA. NH is another matter. Romney MUST win here. He will get a fight from Pawlenty who can appeal to the anti-tax, country club faction of the party. I see no way Romney can defend his health care record here, however. Palin disappears in NH. SC look for whatever southerner who’s in the race to do well here. Palin could resurface if she is still bothering. Tim Pawlenty is an evangelical Southern Baptist and could hold his own here. Romney may as well skip this state. So it all sets up well for Pawlenty from my viewpoint. Team Elephant is simply loaded with high profile candidates who are so badly damaged that they can’t win. It will be one of the lesser-knowns who will take this thing. Thune seems unlikely to run. Daniels may or may not. Pawlenty is running hard. He has built up organization in the early states. He has arranged a solid campaign team. He has his fund raising organization together. I think he will be the one who takes it. ---
**Author:** ![Lamar\_Mundane](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/85f322/32.png) [@Lamar\_Mundane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lamar_Mundane)\ **Post date:** [February 16, 2011, 8:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/46 "2011-02-16T20:44:22Z")
> [@Captain\_Lance\_Murdoch](#): > > Palin will run. She’s making it obvious. She could do quite well In IA too. This is not the Iowa election after all, it is the Republican caucuses. Sure she would get creamed in a state-wide contest, but her rabid followers will surely show up for these meetings. Caucuses can skew the importance of rather small, but devoted groups of followers. And remember this is the state where Pat Robertson beat George Bush. The Republicans here are very right wing. She may well run, but once she realizes that her campaign has to pay for everything, she’ll change her mind. Caucuses mean a lot of bus rides through Iowa in the winter, no first class plane tickets. It’s meeting thirty or forty people in someone’s living room and shaking hands at the feed store, and all for nothing. No $150,000 in the bank account just for showing up. Some of the hotels they stay in make a Hampton Inn look like the Ritz-Carlton in comparison. And then she’s going to realize she’s got to do the same thing in New Hampshire, and that’s when she checks out mentally. Her staff and national support will keep her in for a few more states, but then will come the speech where she says she has been threatened and bullied and the media is being mean to her, and that’ll be the end of it. ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [February 16, 2011, 9:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/47 "2011-02-16T21:27:20Z")
> [@Lamar\_Mundane](#): > > Caucuses mean a lot of bus rides through Iowa in the winter, no first class plane tickets. [It’s not her practice to actually ride the bus](http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/11/30/palin-plane-tour-using-pr_n_374084.html) (except right at the beginning and end of each leg of the tour): > [@](#): > > Sarah Palin’s “Going Rogue” bus has logged thousands of miles as it crosses the country, promoting her memoir. But Palin herself has been traveling by private jet, using the bus only for brief stops and media appearances… ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [February 16, 2011, 11:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/48 "2011-02-16T23:55:43Z")
> [@Steve\_MB](#): > > [It’s not her practice to actually ride the bus](http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/11/30/palin-plane-tour-using-pr_n_374084.html) (except right at the beginning and end of each leg of the tour): I’m not suprised by that. Running for election is hard work. Governing is hard work. Being a celebrity and getting big sacks of money is easy (at least comparatively). I just don’t see what she gains by jumping in the race. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [February 17, 2011, 12:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/49 "2011-02-17T00:20:53Z")
She keeps herself relevant. Or she maintains the appearance of relevance, at any rate. ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [February 17, 2011, 3:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/50 "2011-02-17T15:50:15Z")
> [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](#): > > I’m not suprised by that. Running for election is hard work. Governing is hard work. Being a celebrity and getting big sacks of money is easy (at least comparatively). I just don’t see what she gains by jumping in the race. Also, repeating her tactic of riding Air Head One while catching the bus just before each stop (and rendezvousing with the staffers who were actually stuck on the bus the whole way) would probably draw more attention during an actual political campaign where she has opponents looking for a way to get an edge on her. ---
**Author:** ![gonzomax](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e8c25b/32.png) [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)\ **Post date:** [February 17, 2011, 4:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/51 "2011-02-17T16:41:37Z")
Great, Palin could be the first person elected to the presidency and the first to quit. Does anyone think the press will give her a pass . Governing is hard. She is a spoiled pretty bitch that thinks the world owes her a living. So far she has been right. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [February 17, 2011, 4:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/52 "2011-02-17T16:49:56Z")
Palin can’t run, a loss would drive down her value and a win lowers her salary. By staying out, she can be Miss Will She Or Won’t She in 2012, 2016, and 2020. Once she dives in and loses, she won’t have that same star appeal and the box office goes down. ---
**Author:** ![42fish](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/4/b487fb/32.png) [@42fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/42fish)\ **Post date:** [February 17, 2011, 6:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/53 "2011-02-17T18:04:02Z")
> [@gonzomax](#): > > Great, Palin could be the first person elected to the presidency and the first to quit. Actually, she’d be the second to quit. As Bowie asked, “Do you remember your President Nixon?” ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [February 17, 2011, 6:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/54 "2011-02-17T18:42:51Z")
> [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](#): > > She keeps herself relevant. Or she maintains the appearance of relevance, at any rate. Exactly. If she doesn’t run in 2012, she’ll be ancient history by 2014. I remember being in a similar discussion when Dan Quayle skipped the 1996 campaign, with the notion that he was going to keep his powder dry for 2000. That’s silly, I said - eight years is a long time in Presidential politics, and someone else is going to fill his niche by 2000. Who, I was asked. Hell if I know, I said (the thought of GWB as a Presidential aspirant hadn’t remotely crossed my mind at the time), but there’s always new faces coming up. _Somebody_ will. Same with Palin. If she doesn’t run, someone else will claim her political niche. Might be Michelle Bachmann, or it might be someone most of us have never heard of yet. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [February 17, 2011, 6:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/55 "2011-02-17T18:47:45Z")
> [@Jonathan\_Chance](#): > > Speaking of fundraising Gingrich has apparently built a money raising machine down there. > > [http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/15/AR2011021506344.html](http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/15/AR2011021506344.html) Quite a story - what a sleazebag. Two predictions: 1. He isn’t running. Like I said earlier, if he was, his ‘base’ in the court at Versailles-on-the-Potomac might be forced to notice that nobody outside their little clique gives a good goddamn about Newt. 2. This story won’t significantly change the attitudes of the Broderists towards Newt. They’ll still think he’s full of brilliant ideas, and that people should pay more attention to him. They’ll still flatter him in their columns and Sunday political show appearances. And he’ll still be a regular on those shows. ---
**Author:** ![Lantern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/d26b3c/32.png) [@Lantern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lantern)\ **Post date:** [February 17, 2011, 8:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/56 "2011-02-17T20:18:46Z")
I agree that Palin’s options aren’t great. If she runs, she will lose heavily and early in the primaries because above all else Republicans want to beat Obama and they can read the poll numbers as well as anyone else. If she sits out she becomes yesterday’s story and will be overshadowed by rising stars like Christie and Rubio. Her best hope is to endorse the eventual winner in return for a cabinet position and hope he goes on to beat Obama. Realistically the chances of that are slim even assuming she wants to go through the grind of managing a cabinet department. Palin has been savvy about using her moment in the spotlight to become very rich but I don’t think she has much of a future within the conservative movement. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [February 18, 2011, 6:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/57 "2011-02-18T06:13:14Z")
Why would losing be a problem for her? She _thrives_ on losing. Because it’s all someone else’s fault, dontcha know. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [February 18, 2011, 6:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/58 "2011-02-18T06:31:39Z")
I would imagine there are only so many loses allowed until you start to see damage to the brand. ---
**Author:** ![Mollie\_Magill](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mollie_magill/32/20882_2.png) [@Mollie\_Magill](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mollie_Magill)\ **Post date:** [February 18, 2011, 2:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/59 "2011-02-18T14:06:33Z")
I think Palin will be in for one or two primaries, then she’ll drop out… because she’s a winner. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [February 18, 2011, 2:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/60 "2011-02-18T14:24:14Z")
> [@Mollie\_Magill](#): > > I think Palin will be in for one or two primaries, then she’ll drop out… because she’s a winner. She’ll say something like “Only dead hamsters stay on the wheel” and then drop out, IF she runs, which I think is doubtful. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160.md?page=4)