# Handicapping the 2012 GOP presidential nomination **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [February 12, 2011, 9:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160 "2011-02-12T21:14:10Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 35
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2011, 2:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/681 "2011-09-30T14:01:37Z")
> [@Gyrate](#): > > I can’t see the GOP running a woman/minority ticket, but there’s still a long way to go. On further consideration this would be an extremely crafty move by the Republicans. Just imagine the Democratic base reaction to it. Heads exploding all over the place. “But…but…they’ve got a black guy AND a woman! But they’re Republicans! And Chewbacca lives on Endor! AAAAGH!” \ It’d be a disaster for the country but since when has that stopped anyone? ---
**Author:** ![AbloyProtec](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/9f8e36/32.png) [@AbloyProtec](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AbloyProtec)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2011, 2:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/682 "2011-09-30T14:03:23Z")
> [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](#): > > That and Perry channeling George W. Bush at the last couple of debates. > > Fun fact: the Florida P5 straw poll winner has taken the Republican nomination every year since 1979. Cain might actually be the guy! Unfortunately, it only occurred during the Reagan, Bush Sr., and Dole cycles. I guess 3/5 isn’t THAT bad. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2011, 3:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/683 "2011-09-30T15:58:57Z")
> [@](#): > > Winning Florida Straw Poll plus strong placing in Fox News, Gallup, and Zogby polls. That’s not the _reason_ for the bump; that _is_ the bump. ---
**Author:** ![AbloyProtec](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/9f8e36/32.png) [@AbloyProtec](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AbloyProtec)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2011, 4:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/684 "2011-09-30T16:04:34Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > That’s not the _reason_ for the bump; that _is_ the bump. Oh ok, thanks for the clarification sir. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2011, 8:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/685 "2011-09-30T20:14:27Z")
To clarify a bit more, a reason for a bump might be something like a particularly good debate performance, a positive interview, a successful ad campaign, an endorsement from someone influential, a direct competitor dropping out of the race or saying something to turn voters against them, something like that. You can’t even just say “The people are waking up to the fact that he’s the best candidate”, because then you have to explain why they’re waking up now when they weren’t before. ---
**Author:** ![AbloyProtec](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/9f8e36/32.png) [@AbloyProtec](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AbloyProtec)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2011, 2:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/686 "2011-10-04T14:35:40Z")
Chris Christie has a press conference scheduled for this afternoon. Meg Whitman says he isn’t running. Maybe this is the formal announcement? ---
**Author:** ![Defensive\_Indifference](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/defensive_indifference/32/6502_2.png) [@Defensive\_Indifference](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Defensive_Indifference)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2011, 3:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/687 "2011-10-04T15:21:09Z")
The \*New York Times \*is reporting Christie has re-decided not to run: [http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/10/04/christie-wont-run-for-president-advisers-say/?hp](http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/10/04/christie-wont-run-for-president-advisers-say/?hp) ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2011, 3:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/688 "2011-10-04T15:34:08Z")
> [@Bayard](#): > > The \*New York Times \*is reporting Christie has re-decided not to run: > > ['Now Is Not My Time' to Run, Christie Says - The New York Times](http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/10/04/christie-wont-run-for-president-advisers-say/?hp) I guess they can lay off on the restoration of the Taft bathtub for now. ---
**Author:** ![The\_wind\_of\_my\_soul](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecc23a/32.png) [@The\_wind\_of\_my\_soul](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_wind_of_my_soul)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2011, 3:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/689 "2011-10-04T15:59:23Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > To clarify a bit more, a reason for a bump might be something like a particularly good debate performance, a positive interview, a successful ad campaign, an endorsement from someone influential, a direct competitor dropping out of the race or saying something to turn voters against them, something like that. You can’t even just say “The people are waking up to the fact that he’s the best candidate”, because then you have to explain why they’re waking up now when they weren’t before. Well I would think that his winning the Florida Straw Poll happened because he was doing a lot of campaigning down in Florida. (Not that I’ve been following his campaign too closely, but usually straw poll wins are accompanied by heavy campaigning in that state.) Then when he wins one straw poll, the news media pays more attention to him, people learn about him and consider him more electable than they had previously, and pledge their allegiance to him in the other news polls cited. ---
**Author:** ![AbloyProtec](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/9f8e36/32.png) [@AbloyProtec](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AbloyProtec)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2011, 4:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/690 "2011-10-04T16:07:41Z")
**Chronos** , Cain’s continues to climb in the polls (now tied for 2nd w/ Perry). When do you project this bump will end? ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2011, 4:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/691 "2011-10-04T16:20:09Z")
What makes you think I’m making any projections at all about it? ---
**Author:** ![AbloyProtec](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/9f8e36/32.png) [@AbloyProtec](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AbloyProtec)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2011, 4:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/692 "2011-10-04T16:24:00Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > What makes you think I’m making any projections at all about it? Thus my question. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2011, 4:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/693 "2011-10-04T16:43:39Z")
> [@AbloyProtec](#): > > **Chronos** , > > Cain’s continues to climb in the polls (now tied for 2nd w/ Perry). When do you project this bump will end? South Carolina. ---
**Author:** ![Merijeek](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f05b48/32.png) [@Merijeek](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Merijeek)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2011, 5:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/694 "2011-10-04T17:44:59Z")
> [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](#): > > South Carolina. Why? Has Cain got any rumored black children? -Joe ---
**Author:** ![jayjay](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jayjay/32/6765_2.png) [@jayjay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jayjay)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2011, 8:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/695 "2011-10-04T20:12:13Z")
> [@Bayard](#): > > The \*New York Times \*is reporting Christie has re-decided not to run: > > ['Now Is Not My Time' to Run, Christie Says - The New York Times](http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/10/04/christie-wont-run-for-president-advisers-say/?hp) No stomach for presidential politics… ---
**Author:** ![Finagle](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/b19c9b/32.png) [@Finagle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Finagle)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2011, 8:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/696 "2011-10-04T20:25:23Z")
> [@jayjay](#): > > No stomach for presidential politics… I see what you did there. ---
**Author:** ![Merijeek](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f05b48/32.png) [@Merijeek](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Merijeek)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2011, 8:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/697 "2011-10-04T20:42:57Z")
> [@Finagle](#): > > I see what you did there. Pretty sure that Fox News really wanted him to at first, but then they got a quote on replacing all their camera lenses and changed their mind. -Joe ---
**Author:** ![Chefguy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chefguy/32/138_2.png) [@Chefguy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chefguy)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2011, 3:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/698 "2011-10-05T15:40:57Z")
> [@Finagle](#): > > I see what you did there. It would have been fun to have Bobby Baccalieri as President, methinks. ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2011, 4:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/699 "2011-10-05T16:11:42Z")
[quote=“AbloyProtec, post:690, topic:571160”] > [@Merijeek](#): > > Why? Has Cain got any rumored black children? There’s also the fact that his name is to close to _Mc_Cain… ---
**Author:** ![AbloyProtec](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/9f8e36/32.png) [@AbloyProtec](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AbloyProtec)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2011, 10:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/700 "2011-10-05T22:23:56Z")
Fox News reports that Sarah Palin will not be running. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160.md?page=34) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160.md?page=36)