# Handicapping the 2012 GOP presidential nomination **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [February 12, 2011, 9:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160 "2011-02-12T21:14:10Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 36
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2011, 11:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/701 "2011-10-05T23:24:28Z")
> [@AbloyProtec](#): > > Fox News reports that Sarah Palin will not be running. So who does that leave in the Tea Party Thunderdome – Bachmann, Perry, who else? ---
**Author:** ![AbloyProtec](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/9f8e36/32.png) [@AbloyProtec](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AbloyProtec)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2011, 11:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/702 "2011-10-05T23:26:00Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > So who does that leave in the Tea Party Thunderdome – Bachmann, Perry, who else? Herman Cain - he’s only spoken at dozens and dozens of Tea Party events and only won dozens of their straw polls. ---
**Author:** ![wonky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wonky/32/393_2.png) [@wonky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wonky)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2011, 11:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/703 "2011-10-05T23:35:54Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > So who does that leave in the Tea Party Thunderdome – Bachmann, Perry, who else? There’s Cain, but he’s destined to follow Bachmann’s path. I think if Palin ran, she would have guaranteed Mitt the nomination. I don’t know if Perry can come back, but I don’t see the others with any chance at all. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2011, 2:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/704 "2011-10-06T02:06:51Z")
> [@AbloyProtec](#): > > Fox News reports that Sarah Palin will not be running. … for the sixth time. ---
**Author:** ![AbloyProtec](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/9f8e36/32.png) [@AbloyProtec](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AbloyProtec)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2011, 11:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/705 "2011-10-06T11:08:57Z")
> [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](#): > > … for the sixth time. I’m having trouble finding the other 5 times, can you provide links or sources? ---
**Author:** ![tnetennba](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/7993a0/32.png) [@tnetennba](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tnetennba)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2011, 11:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/706 "2011-10-06T11:13:02Z")
So did she ever resume her bus tour? ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2011, 11:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/707 "2011-10-06T11:34:21Z")
> [@tnetennba](#): > > So did she ever resume her bus tour? The purpose of the bus tour was to crap on Romney’s announcement that he was running. Mission accomplished. ---
**Author:** ![tnetennba](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/7993a0/32.png) [@tnetennba](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tnetennba)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2011, 11:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/708 "2011-10-06T11:49:53Z")
She flung poo at Christie while making her announcement. Keep it classy, lady. I also like how she says you don’t have to be in office to make a difference. What difference is she making? ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2011, 12:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/709 "2011-10-06T12:22:13Z")
She probably is pissed at Steve Jobs to have the audacity to die on _her_ news day. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2011, 12:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/710 "2011-10-06T12:45:45Z")
I’ve been looking over my early posts in this thread, and let’s just say I’m less than impressed with my ability as a prognosticator. Take my first post in the thread: > [@RTFirefly](#): > > My WAG is that the nomination will go to whichever of the Establishment empty suits (Romney, Daniels, Pawlenty, Thune) can do the best job of convincing the wingnuts that he’s one of them. > > Palin [will run](http://voices.washingtonpost.com/44/2011/02/sarah-palin-makes-chief-of-sta.html), if only to keep her name in play so she can make more money off her fan club. But she won’t win the nomination. > > Gingrich has made a career out of considering throwing his hat into the Presidential ring. He won’t actually DO it, because his base (which is the same base as McCain used to have - the DC press/pundit corps) would have to admit that nobody gives a shit about this guy out in the real world. > > Huckabee’s in a lousy position this time - not establishment enough to please the GOP’s corporatist base, but not crazy enough for the Teahadists. He’ll run, he may win a number of primaries, but he’s not winning the nomination. > > Huntsman’s all about 2016. > > Giuliani won’t run if he’s got half a brain - what makes him think he could do better this time than last? > > What makes Santorum think he can do better nationally than he did in his own state last time? > > Haley Barbour: even the GOP’s got the smarts not to nominate Boss Hogg. > > George Pataki: he’s got nothing else to do with himself these days, so he might as well run for President. Damned if I know who’s going to vote for him. If I turn out to be right in my first prediction, it will be only vacuously so: Daniels and Thune didn’t run, and essentially nobody was interested in supporting T-Paw. So even though Romney hasn’t gained any meaningful support from the wingnut contingent, I suppose one could say that he still outdrew the other three. Gotta score this as a miss. Palin will run - miss. Gingrich won’t - miss. Huckabee will run - miss. Huntsman’s all about 2016 - well sure, but _everybody_ knew that. Giuliani, Santorum, Pataki - hits, but zero points. Too easy. Barbour - hit. Not sure why anyone gave him a chance, but pundits were taking his chances seriously, so I’ll give myself a point for this one. Still, that’s 1-for-5, just from this post. And that was just the beginning. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2011, 12:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/711 "2011-10-06T12:50:17Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > Gingrich won’t - miss. This one’s a forgivable mistake, I think. Gingrich has run a half-assed campaign, and running was a bad decision because it killed his PAC, so after he’s done losing, he won’t have much to go back to. Similar candidates like Trump did a better job assessing reality and realizing they had no chance to win and could only lose by actually running, so they didn’t. ---
**Author:** ![Merijeek](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f05b48/32.png) [@Merijeek](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Merijeek)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2011, 1:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/712 "2011-10-06T13:40:03Z")
> [@AbloyProtec](#): > > Herman Cain - he’s only spoken at dozens and dozens of Tea Party events and only won dozens of their straw polls. Let’s bet. $100 says that Cain will not be the GOP nominee. You want to take that action? You seem to be a pretty fanatical devotee to him, even though the GOP primaries will never allow a “boy” like him through the process. You in or out? -Joe ---
**Author:** ![AbloyProtec](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/9f8e36/32.png) [@AbloyProtec](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AbloyProtec)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2011, 1:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/713 "2011-10-06T13:51:44Z")
> [@Merijeek](#): > > Let’s bet. > > $100 says that Cain will not be the GOP nominee. You want to take that action? You seem to be a pretty fanatical devotee to him, even though the GOP primaries will never allow a “boy” like him through the process. > > You in or out? > > -Joe I don’t bet, but thank you. You’re the 3rd person to offer that bet to me on this forum. ---
**Author:** ![jayjay](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jayjay/32/6765_2.png) [@jayjay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jayjay)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2011, 2:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/714 "2011-10-06T14:01:11Z")
> [@AbloyProtec](#): > > I don’t bet, but thank you. > > You’re the 3rd person to offer that bet to me on this forum. You can’t say we don’t know a sure thing when we see it… ---
**Author:** ![Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/try2b_comprehensive/32/65_2.png) [@Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Try2B_Comprehensive)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2011, 2:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/715 "2011-10-06T14:08:20Z")
I don’t think Cain can win either. Sooner or later someone is going to run the math on this 999 scheme, and, resistant as the right can be to data &etc, I think enough of them will notice. Hey Cain, what’s your policy priority? “999!” What problems does that solve? “Nevermind, 999 lowers your taxes!” What should we do about the rise of China? “999!!” And so on. I just don’t think it can fly. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2011, 2:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/716 "2011-10-06T14:11:05Z")
> [@Try2B\_Comprehensive](#): > > I don’t think Cain can win either. Sooner or later someone is going to run the math on this 999 scheme, and, resistant as the right can be to data &etc, I think enough of them will notice. > > Hey Cain, what’s your policy priority? “999!” > > What problems does that solve? “Nevermind, 999 lowers your taxes!” > > What should we do about the rise of China? “999!!” > > And so on. I just don’t think it can fly. “999” is to Cain as “9/11” is to Ghouliani. How long before Biden quips “a noun, a verb, and 999”? ---
**Author:** ![Merijeek](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f05b48/32.png) [@Merijeek](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Merijeek)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2011, 3:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/717 "2011-10-06T15:20:50Z")
> [@AbloyProtec](#): > > I don’t bet, but thank you. > > You’re the 3rd person to offer that bet to me on this forum. I understand wanting to avoid throwing your money away on a sure thing. Of course, I don’t go on and on about how Kucinich is a candidate with actual potential either. Ron Paul 2012! This time it’s for real! Wewt! -Joe ---
**Author:** ![Chefguy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chefguy/32/138_2.png) [@Chefguy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chefguy)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2011, 11:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/718 "2011-10-06T23:21:14Z")
> [@AbloyProtec](#): > > Fox News reports that Sarah Palin will not be running. Hardly news to anybody who knows her. My stance from the very beginning was that she would not run. There’s no money in it. The press would make frowny faces at her. There’s no money in it. It would mean she would have to actually work and make decisions and hard stuff like that. And there’s no money in it. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2011, 12:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/719 "2011-10-07T00:25:11Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > I’ve been looking over my early posts in this thread, and let’s just say I’m less than impressed with my ability as a prognosticator. What an impressively honest post. I should now make similarly bold predictions. But really I have no idea who will be GOP nominee, other than it looks like Romney or Perry, or who will win in November. I’ll confidently say that the election will be about the economy, but that isn’t falsifiable. ---
**Author:** ![Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/try2b_comprehensive/32/65_2.png) [@Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Try2B_Comprehensive)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2011, 2:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/720 "2011-10-07T02:17:56Z")
Well I want to point out how much I personally like Herman Cain. He’s the head of Godfather’s Pizza you know. Growing up, Godfather’s was the place.to.go. If your parents said, ‘Hey Kids, where do you want to go out?’, it was because they wanted to go out to Godfather’s. It was really great pizza. It improved my quality of life. I have no choice but to thank Herman Cain. There will always be a warm spot in my heart for him. I hope he doesn’t take it the wrong way that I prefer Obama for President. Obama has 4 years’ experience at President, and also was a professor of Constitutional Law if I am not entirely mistaken. Herman Cain is a successful entrepreneur, nothing like many of his Republican contemporaries who made their money in worthless pursuits like gaming the real estate derivatives markets or some other such paper-pushing bullshit. No, Herman Cain made his fortune providing a product people wanted to purchase. People may say, ‘Oh Gee Whiz, that’s “just” pizza!’. But try saying that to Morton about selling “just” salt. People want it, he sold it and made a proper fortune. Caterpillar made a mint selling equipment. And so on. I like Herman Cain. I’m still voting for Obama. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160.md?page=35) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160.md?page=37)