# Handicapping the 2012 GOP presidential nomination **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [February 12, 2011, 9:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160 "2011-02-12T21:14:10Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 37
**Author:** ![AbloyProtec](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/9f8e36/32.png) [@AbloyProtec](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AbloyProtec)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2011, 10:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/721 "2011-10-07T10:53:32Z")
> [@jayjay](#): > > You can’t say we don’t know a sure thing when we see it… This board isn’t objective enough to paint a real picture. This board is overwhelmingly Democratic. ---
**Author:** ![Onomatopoeia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/onomatopoeia/32/4145_2.png) [@Onomatopoeia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Onomatopoeia)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2011, 12:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/722 "2011-10-07T12:20:13Z")
> [@AbloyProtec](#): > > This board isn’t objective enough to paint a real picture. This board is overwhelmingly Democratic. What does that have to do with opining that Cain won’t be the Republican party nominee? ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2011, 1:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/723 "2011-10-07T13:29:23Z")
> [@Try2B\_Comprehensive](#): > > I don’t think Cain can win either. Sooner or later someone is going to run the math on this 999 scheme, and, resistant as the right can be to data &etc, I think enough of them will notice. > > Hey Cain, what’s your policy priority? “999!” > > What problems does that solve? “Nevermind, 999 lowers your taxes!” > > What should we do about the rise of China? “999!!” > > And so on. I just don’t think it can fly. [Tax Plan 999 From Outer Space](http://cdn.svcs.c2.uclick.com/c2/6ec7fa40d0fa012e2f9100163e41dd5b) ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2011, 1:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/724 "2011-10-07T13:40:26Z")
> [@Chefguy](#): > > Hardly news to anybody who knows her. My stance from the very beginning was that she would not run. There’s no money in it. The press would make frowny faces at her. There’s no money in it. It would mean she would have to actually work and make decisions and hard stuff like that. And there’s no money in it. I disagree about the “there’s no money in it” part. I hope she’s stashing away the money she’s already made, because she’s already yesterday’s news except to a rapidly diminishing group of hardcore followers. Even a respectable primary showing (say 3rd or 4th overall, and winning a couple of small-state primaries along the way) would have kept the gravy train running for a few more years. But by this time next year, even Fox News will have forgotten about her. ETA: what really killed it for her was the " she would have to actually work and make decisions and hard stuff like that" part. To say that actual work is not her forte is an understatement. ---
**Author:** ![Chefguy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chefguy/32/138_2.png) [@Chefguy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chefguy)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2011, 2:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/725 "2011-10-07T14:03:54Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > I disagree about the “there’s no money in it” part. I hope she’s stashing away the money she’s already made, because she’s already yesterday’s news except to a rapidly diminishing group of hardcore followers. > > Even a respectable primary showing (say 3rd or 4th overall, and winning a couple of small-state primaries along the way) would have kept the gravy train running for a few more years. But by this time next year, even Fox News will have forgotten about her. > > ETA: what really killed it for her was the " she would have to actually work and make decisions and hard stuff like that" part. To say that actual work is not her forte is an understatement. Well, you’re right: there is, of course, money in politics. But the work-to-cashflow ratio is much more favorable for what she’s doing now. Riding around in a bus and saying stupid shit to gullible people is much easier than, say, addressing the trade imbalance. ---
**Author:** ![Frank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Frank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frank)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2011, 12:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/726 "2011-10-09T00:38:30Z")
Values Voter Summit straw poll: Paul 37% Cain 22% … Perry 8% Romney 4% Organizer Tony Perkins suggests it was [fixed](http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-20117696-503544.html): > [@](#): > > In a press conference following the announcement of the straw poll results at the annual Washington gathering of social conservatives, Family Research Council President Tony Perkins all but dismissed the results as irrelevant, citing 600 people who registered Saturday morning and, he said, “left after Ron Paul spoke.” > > A total of 1,983 ballots were cast. “You do the math,” Perkins said. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2011, 1:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/727 "2011-10-09T01:07:02Z")
That doesn’t necessarily sound like a “fix”, to me, just a bunch of folks who are monomaniacally fanatical about Paul. Nothing that says they can’t be honest about their monomania, though. ---
**Author:** ![The\_wind\_of\_my\_soul](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecc23a/32.png) [@The\_wind\_of\_my\_soul](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_wind_of_my_soul)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2011, 1:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/728 "2011-10-09T01:37:18Z")
> [@Frank](#): > > Values Voter Summit straw poll: > > Paul 37% > Cain 22% > … > Perry 8% > Romney 4% > > Organizer Tony Perkins suggests it was [fixed](http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-20117696-503544.html): As someone who attended this summit and voted for Ron Paul, I have a few things to say about this. If you want to talk about fixing a vote, the whole premise of the Values Voters Conference is set up to be fixed. The “Values” in the name stands for Evangelical Christian values. The speeches delivered were not about stabilizing the economy and balancing the budget, they were about preserving the sanctity of marriage and dismantling Planned Parenthood. Out of all the presidential candidates who are routinely invited to primary debates, every single one was invited to speak at this event, with the exception of Jon Huntsman. Rick Santorum typically polls only a single percentage above Huntsman, but at this summit he polled 16 percentage points above Huntsman. At the voting station, we were given the choice to choose from many, many politicians for vice president, including some whose name I did not recognize. Presidential candidate Gary Johnson, who is pro-choice and in favor of legalizing marijuana, was not even listed as an option, despite participating in two primary debates and sometimes polling in the same range as Santorum and Huntsman. This summit was clearly intended for a Christian audience, and they did not receive the outcome that they wanted. To say that this is fixed because their ploy to attract only religious conservatives did not work strikes me as petty and insulting. ---
**Author:** ![AbloyProtec](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/9f8e36/32.png) [@AbloyProtec](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AbloyProtec)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2011, 9:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/729 "2011-10-09T21:35:19Z")
> [@The\_wind\_of\_my\_soul](#): > > As someone who attended this summit and voted for Ron Paul, I have a few things to say about this. Was there really a mass exodus after Paul spoke? ---
**Author:** ![jayjay](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jayjay/32/6765_2.png) [@jayjay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jayjay)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2011, 10:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/730 "2011-10-09T22:13:47Z")
> [@The\_wind\_of\_my\_soul](#): > > To say that this is fixed because their ploy to attract only religious conservatives did not work strikes me as petty and insulting. Not that I have much other common cause with the Paulites, but pretty much everything that Tony Perkins says strikes me as petty and insulting. ---
**Author:** ![gonzomax](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e8c25b/32.png) [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2011, 11:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/731 "2011-10-09T23:42:59Z")
Perry can not afford another bad debate showing. I am sure they are coaching the shit out of his brain. Romney is the front runner, even though most of the party is lukewarm to negative on him. The rest are jokes. Cain is far outside. The 999 is crazy . Paul will have a small but loyal following forever, but the keyword is small. Even Palin realized she had nowhere to go. She will fade away pretty soon. Bachmann is past her use by date. The more people listen too her, the worse she does. The problem is, will the Libertarians of Paul support Romney. Will the goofballs of 999 support Romney. Will the southwest anti government types like Bachmann go along with Romney. Can he get the party in back of him with the Liberal, Mormon, flipflopper east coast billionaire vibe clanging away? ---
**Author:** ![AbloyProtec](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/9f8e36/32.png) [@AbloyProtec](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AbloyProtec)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2011, 12:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/732 "2011-10-10T00:20:08Z")
> [@gonzomax](#): > > The rest are jokes. Cain is far outside. The 999 is crazy . Your denial is an excellent motivator. Far outside? Lol. I cannot wait to see how you explain Cain’s continuing “surge” after Tuesday’s debate. In fact, I look forward to it just as much as the debate itself. Gonzo, still planning on voting for Cain? Can I make a contribution in your name, buddy? ---
**Author:** ![E-Sabbath](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/e19adc/32.png) [@E-Sabbath](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/E-Sabbath)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2011, 1:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/733 "2011-10-10T01:48:22Z")
I actually think Ron Paul has a nonzero chance this year, as some sort of compromise candidate. He’s Not Romney and he’s Not Herman Cain. ---
**Author:** ![The\_wind\_of\_my\_soul](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecc23a/32.png) [@The\_wind\_of\_my\_soul](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_wind_of_my_soul)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2011, 1:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/734 "2011-10-10T01:56:18Z")
> [@AbloyProtec](#): > > Was there really a mass exodus after Paul spoke? Yes. ---
**Author:** ![Crane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crane/32/3495_2.png) [@Crane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Crane)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2011, 4:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/735 "2011-10-13T16:12:52Z")
And now Cain! Do these poll changes reflect different constituencies or the same people wavering from candidate to candidate. It was obvious that Perry would self destruct before Iowa, but Cain?! Crane ---
**Author:** ![Simplicio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c37758/32.png) [@Simplicio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Simplicio)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2011, 4:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/736 "2011-10-13T16:23:06Z")
> [@Crane](#): > > And now Cain! > > Do these poll changes reflect different constituencies or the same people wavering from candidate to candidate. It was obvious that Perry would self destruct before Iowa, but Cain?! > > Crane I think its people just fleeing from protest candidate to protest candidate. They don’t want Romney, so they support Trumph, then Bachman, then Perry and now Cain. They don’t really care (at first) about the actual candidate, they just want to support the latest “not-Romney”. Then as the persons poll numbers rise, the media and voters start paying more attention to the person as an actual candidate, they start looking less attractive, and then they flee to the next person. Which raises the question, who will be the next “not-Romney” after Cain? ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2011, 4:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/737 "2011-10-13T16:30:20Z")
They’ll be recycling them soon. Back to Ron Paul we go. ---
**Author:** ![The\_wind\_of\_my\_soul](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecc23a/32.png) [@The\_wind\_of\_my\_soul](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_wind_of_my_soul)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2011, 4:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/738 "2011-10-13T16:43:11Z")
> [@Simplicio](#): > > Which raises the question, who will be the next “not-Romney” after Cain? Gingrich. He recently started polling in the double digits and even pulled ahead of Perry in the latest poll. (Although I think that last part says more about Perry than it does about Gingrich.) ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2011, 4:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/739 "2011-10-13T16:50:38Z")
> [@The\_wind\_of\_my\_soul](#): > > Gingrich. Never happen. Remember why his poll numbers tanked the first time? ---
**Author:** ![The\_wind\_of\_my\_soul](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecc23a/32.png) [@The\_wind\_of\_my\_soul](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_wind_of_my_soul)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2011, 4:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/740 "2011-10-13T16:55:26Z")
> [@Marley23](#): > > Never happen. Remember why his poll numbers tanked the first time? I’m not sure what you’re alluding to here. His poll numbers tanked because his campaign staff quit, coupled with his criticizing Paul Ryan’s plan. I don’t see reason to believe that either of those would happen again. Unless you’re referring to something else. Also, I never said he would stay on top. I just suggested that he may be next in line. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160.md?page=36) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160.md?page=38)