# Handicapping the 2012 GOP presidential nomination **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [February 12, 2011, 9:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160 "2011-02-12T21:14:10Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 40
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [November 14, 2011, 10:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/781 "2011-11-14T22:15:05Z")
Because no one even knows he’s running, and even if they did, he’s running for the nomination in the Republican Party, not the Libertarian Party. Wrong crowd. ---
**Author:** ![Onomatopoeia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/onomatopoeia/32/4145_2.png) [@Onomatopoeia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Onomatopoeia)\ **Post date:** [November 14, 2011, 10:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/782 "2011-11-14T22:22:36Z")
> [@jayjay](#): > > I don’t want to start any blasphemous rumors, > but it seems that God has a sick sense of humor. And when I die, I expect to find him laughing. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2011, 1:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/783 "2011-11-15T01:51:48Z")
> [@Onomatopoeia](#): > > And when I die, I expect to find him laughing. [God’s Comic!](http://www.sing365.com/music/lyric.nsf/God's-Comic-lyrics-Elvis-Costello/1905EF78943ECD29482568B000052BEE)🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Crane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crane/32/3495_2.png) [@Crane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Crane)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2011, 11:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/784 "2011-11-15T23:25:55Z")
The latest Bloomberg poll of Iowa Republicans: Cain 20% Paul 19% Romney 18% Gingrich 17% Can you believe it!? Cain - The guy’s a stuffed shirt. Strictly sub-Perry. Paul - A fringe candidate at best. Romney - Viable candidate but dropping in the polls. Gingrich - Viable candidate but probably cannot sustain his polls bubble. Crane ---
**Author:** ![Chefguy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chefguy/32/138_2.png) [@Chefguy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chefguy)\ **Post date:** [November 16, 2011, 3:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/785 "2011-11-16T15:11:04Z")
> [@Crane](#): > > The latest Bloomberg poll of Iowa Republicans: > > Cain 20% > Paul 19% > Romney 18% > Gingrich 17% > > Can you believe it!? > > Cain - The guy’s a stuffed shirt. Strictly sub-Perry. > Paul - A fringe candidate at best. > Romney - Viable candidate but dropping in the polls. > Gingrich - Viable candidate but probably cannot sustain his polls bubble. > > Crane I saw a poll within the past day or so that has Gingrich within two percentage points in a runoff with Obama. Romney was also within single digits, and Paul was a distant third. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [November 16, 2011, 3:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/786 "2011-11-16T15:42:01Z")
It’s obvious that Romney is the only candidate who mainstream voters will take seriously at this point, barring an expected flash of not-being-a-dick from Gingrich. However, I seriously question whether moderate voters will have any interest in Romney when they know he was the Republicans’ 14th choice. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [November 16, 2011, 3:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/787 "2011-11-16T15:45:40Z")
> [@Crane](#): > > Mormon Doctrine states that God established the Constitution of the United States in order to found the LDS religion. > > That’s a novel frame of reference for a US President. Hell, it seems like a rather novel frame of reference for a Mormon, considering that the U.S. government hounded the Mormons first out of upstate New York, then out of Illinois, and didn’t exactly have peaceful relations with the Mormons’ Salt Lake colony for quite a long time. It would be like Christian doctrine stating that God established the Roman Empire in order to spread Christianity. What’s a few persecutions between friends? ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [November 16, 2011, 4:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/788 "2011-11-16T16:30:38Z")
> [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](#): > > It’s obvious that Romney is the only candidate who mainstream voters will take seriously at this point, barring an expected flash of not-being-a-dick from Gingrich. > > However, I seriously question whether moderate voters will have any interest in Romney when they know he was the Republicans’ 14th choice. 😕 That’s **why** moderate voters would like him. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [November 16, 2011, 4:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/789 "2011-11-16T16:32:29Z")
> [@Crane](#): > > Mormon Doctrine states that God established the Constitution of the United States in order to found the LDS religion. Poor erring souls . . . God established the Constitution of the United States in order to found an **LSD** religion. So get on with it! He is running out of patience! ---
**Author:** ![WillFarnaby](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/willfarnaby/32/514_2.png) [@WillFarnaby](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/WillFarnaby)\ **Post date:** [November 16, 2011, 5:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/790 "2011-11-16T17:09:30Z")
> [@Crane](#): > > Paul - A fringe candidate at best. 19% is one hell of a fringe. So is 17% in [New Hampshire](http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-11-16/romney-leads-in-new-hampshire-where-voters-can-deliver-surprises.html). ---
**Author:** ![Algorithm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/algorithm/32/12204_2.png) [@Algorithm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Algorithm)\ **Post date:** [November 16, 2011, 5:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/791 "2011-11-16T17:32:15Z")
> [@WillFarnaby](#): > > 19% is one hell of a fringe. So is 17% in [New Hampshire](http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-11-16/romney-leads-in-new-hampshire-where-voters-can-deliver-surprises.html). I would wait until more polls show up supporting Bloomberg’s numbers. [Averaging with other recent polls](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/ia/iowa_republican_presidential_primary-1588.html), Paul’s numbers in Iowa don’t look much improved over the last few months. He is doing considerably better than [last year](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ia/iowa_republican_caucus-207.html), though. ---
**Author:** ![John\_DiFool](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_difool/32/19543_2.png) [@John\_DiFool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_DiFool)\ **Post date:** [November 16, 2011, 5:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/792 "2011-11-16T17:46:43Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > Poor erring souls . . . God established the Constitution of the United States in order to found an **LSD** religion. So get on with it! He is running out of patience! [Ahem.](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=14456710&postcount=760) ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [November 16, 2011, 5:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/793 "2011-11-16T17:55:03Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > 😕 That’s **why** moderate voters would like him. The point is that nobody is going to bother voting for him if they don’t think his own party is going to bother - and the fact that some new non-Romney dipshit is leading the polls every month strongly suggests they _won’t_ bother. ---
**Author:** ![WillFarnaby](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/willfarnaby/32/514_2.png) [@WillFarnaby](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/WillFarnaby)\ **Post date:** [November 16, 2011, 6:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/794 "2011-11-16T18:10:24Z")
> [@Algorithm](#): > > I would wait until more polls show up supporting Bloomberg’s numbers. [Averaging with other recent polls](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/ia/iowa_republican_presidential_primary-1588.html), Paul’s numbers in Iowa don’t look much improved over the last few months. > > He is doing considerably better than [last year](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ia/iowa_republican_caucus-207.html), though. Yeah I agree, I just don’t think he is a “fringe” candidate this time around. Especially with him being pretty much the only dissenting voice on foreign policy among candidates in either party. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [November 16, 2011, 6:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/795 "2011-11-16T18:20:47Z")
> [@WillFarnaby](#): > > Yeah I agree, I just don’t think he is a “fringe” candidate this time around. He is. The financial crisis brought some more people around to his way of thinking, but there is no way Ron Paul is getting nominated by a socially conservative political party. There are not nearly enough libertarians in the GOP for him. ---
**Author:** ![Buck\_Godot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/buck_godot/32/6573_2.png) [@Buck\_Godot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Buck_Godot)\ **Post date:** [November 16, 2011, 7:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/796 "2011-11-16T19:08:05Z")
> [@WillFarnaby](#): > > Yeah I agree, I just don’t think he is a “fringe” candidate this time around. Especially with him being pretty much the only dissenting voice on foreign policy among candidates in either party. He is a fringe candidate, but since this is true for all of the other Republican candidates it doesn’t show. ---
**Author:** ![WillFarnaby](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/willfarnaby/32/514_2.png) [@WillFarnaby](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/WillFarnaby)\ **Post date:** [November 16, 2011, 7:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/797 "2011-11-16T19:12:41Z")
What is the definition of a fringe candidate? ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [November 16, 2011, 7:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/798 "2011-11-16T19:13:46Z")
> [@WillFarnaby](#): > > Yeah I agree, I just don’t think he is a “fringe” candidate this time around. Especially with him being pretty much the only dissenting voice on foreign policy among candidates in either party. That’s exactly the sort of thing that makes a fringe candidate. ---
**Author:** ![WillFarnaby](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/willfarnaby/32/514_2.png) [@WillFarnaby](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/WillFarnaby)\ **Post date:** [November 16, 2011, 7:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/799 "2011-11-16T19:19:55Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > That’s exactly the sort of thing that makes a fringe candidate. What if a large part of the public agrees with him, would he still be considered fringe? ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [November 16, 2011, 7:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/800 "2011-11-16T19:42:13Z")
> [@WillFarnaby](#): > > What if a large part of the public agrees with him, would he still be considered fringe? Do you think a large portion of the public agrees with him about the gold standard or dramatically reducing the entire scope of the federal government? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160.md?page=39) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160.md?page=41)