# Handicapping the 2012 GOP presidential nomination **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [February 12, 2011, 9:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160 "2011-02-12T21:14:10Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 42
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [November 28, 2011, 5:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/821 "2011-11-28T17:58:48Z")
Same thing that happened to Principled John McCain: he lost. ---
**Author:** ![pseudotriton\_ruber\_ruber](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/a9a28c/32.png) [@pseudotriton\_ruber\_ruber](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pseudotriton_ruber_ruber)\ **Post date:** [November 28, 2011, 6:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/822 "2011-11-28T18:12:31Z")
But wait–why would conservative Republicans go for Gingrich? He’s been pushing himself as a historian, and touting his reputation as a much-published author and a professor of history? They hate that, as witnessed by the numerous attacks on Obama as an academic. Plus, he’s the quintessence of insider, Washington-centric, old boys in the Beltway lobbyist-career pol. They hate that, too. He’s doomed!! Unless they don’t actually care about any of that shit. Could that be possible? ---
**Author:** ![Frank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Frank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frank)\ **Post date:** [November 28, 2011, 10:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/823 "2011-11-28T22:52:17Z")
> [@Lago\_Ys-Transform](#): > > If Gingrich fades he’ll probably just be replaced by someone else. They’re running out of someone elses. Santorum hasn’t had a turn at the top yet. I think that’s it. Well, except for Huntsman who has the Mormon thing going on too, and is entirely too reasonable. ---
**Author:** ![Lago\_Ys-Transform](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/a587f6/32.png) [@Lago\_Ys-Transform](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lago_Ys-Transform)\ **Post date:** [November 29, 2011, 1:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/824 "2011-11-29T01:35:55Z")
What makes you think that a previous candidate can’t rise from the ashes? Granted, this previous candidate will be Perry, but still. ---
**Author:** ![Fiveyearlurker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/da6949/32.png) [@Fiveyearlurker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiveyearlurker)\ **Post date:** [November 29, 2011, 5:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/825 "2011-11-29T17:33:41Z")
> [@Lago\_Ys-Transform](#): > > Almost everything sensible people articulate about not liking Romney applies to Gingrich, too. If not more so. Gingrich isn’t a Mormon. ---
**Author:** ![jayjay](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jayjay/32/6765_2.png) [@jayjay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jayjay)\ **Post date:** [November 29, 2011, 5:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/826 "2011-11-29T17:35:49Z")
> [@Fiveyearlurker](#): > > Gingrich isn’t a Mormon. Three wives…so far. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [November 29, 2011, 8:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/827 "2011-11-29T20:06:13Z")
Is Karger still in the race? ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [November 29, 2011, 8:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/828 "2011-11-29T20:42:46Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > Is Karger still in the race? [Apparently.](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fred_Karger#2012_presidential_bid) Of course, he falls under the “Not Invited to the Debates” category. No, actually, he falls under the [_Freak Squad_](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freak_Squad) category. ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [November 29, 2011, 9:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/829 "2011-11-29T21:09:40Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > [Apparently.](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fred_Karger#2012_presidential_bid) Of course, he falls under the “Not Invited to the Debates” category. A pity. I’ve watched a broadcast or two of his and he seems to be right up the Republicans’ alley. > [@](#): > > No, actually, he falls under the [_Freak Squad_](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freak_Squad) category. More of a freak show than the ‘main contenders’? ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [November 29, 2011, 9:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/830 "2011-11-29T21:24:11Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > More of a freak show than the ‘main contenders’? Check out Log Cabin Republican (and his transformation-power!). ---
**Author:** ![Lantern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/d26b3c/32.png) [@Lantern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lantern)\ **Post date:** [November 30, 2011, 6:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/831 "2011-11-30T06:11:40Z")
Why is the rise of Gingrich surprising? There is a lot of energy in the conservative movement and they really don’t want to settle for Romney. They are desperately searching for a conservative candidate. Gingrich is erratic and poorly organized but the other conservative candidates are hardly better in this regard. Compared to them Gingrich has several advantages: a) He has high-level national experience, in fact the only candidate who can claim this. b) He has performed well in the debates in marked contrast to Perry c) While he can veer off message sometimes for the most part he is reliably conservative. In fact the 1994 election is a shining moment in conservative history and Gingrich was the chief architect. Whether all this is enough to win the nomination is another matter. Gingrich needs to raise a lot of money and organize better. He needs to convince senior GOP people and fundraisers that he is capable of running in a general election. I tend to agree with the conventional wisdom that Romney will win but I think that that someone, probably Gingrich, from the right wing will give him a real scare and possibly pull off an upset. So if the conventional wisdom puts the probability of a non-Romney winner at say 20% I would put it at 40%. ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [November 30, 2011, 4:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/832 "2011-11-30T16:42:51Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > Check out Log Cabin Republican (and his transformation-power!). I did. I really rather wish you hadn’t linked to that page. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [November 30, 2011, 5:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/833 "2011-11-30T17:05:09Z")
> [@Lantern](#): > > Why is the rise of Gingrich surprising? Because Gingrich, somehow, does not seem to **exist** any more, not even when he’s holding the floor. It’s like putting up with your smart-but-crazy great-uncle at Thanksgiving. ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [November 30, 2011, 8:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/834 "2011-11-30T20:36:38Z")
> [@Lago\_Ys-Transform](#): > > What makes you think that a previous candidate can’t rise from the ashes? > > Granted, this previous candidate will be Perry, but still. Ron Paul. Assuming he can shake off the invisible to news cameras spell he appears to be under. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [November 30, 2011, 8:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/835 "2011-11-30T20:38:23Z")
> [@Voyager](#): > > Ron Paul. Assuming he can shake off the invisible to news cameras spell he appears to be under. He’ll be POTUS some time after Ralph Nader. ---
**Author:** ![Jas09](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d07c76/32.png) [@Jas09](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jas09)\ **Post date:** [November 30, 2011, 9:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/836 "2011-11-30T21:13:39Z")
You guys obviously haven’t seen his new plan: [The Ron Paul Family Cookbook](http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/11/30/2012-ron-paul-family-cookbook_n_1121301.html) And a couple of polls came out today showing Newt with a HUGE lead in Floriday. Like, 30-points huge. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [November 30, 2011, 9:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/837 "2011-11-30T21:50:39Z")
I had already proclaimed Mitt the winner, but I’ve changed my mind. It’s gonna be Newt. His skeletons have already been aired and all the other un-Romneys have crashed and burned. Now that the holidays are here, politics will go in slower motion and take up less of our attention. That has the effect of freezing the race in place, with the exception of Cain’s defectors going to Newt. I figure Romney already has the support of everyone who can stand him. So Merry Christmas, Mr. Obama, your gift is going to be delivered sometime in January. ---
**Author:** ![Simplicio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c37758/32.png) [@Simplicio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Simplicio)\ **Post date:** [November 30, 2011, 10:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/838 "2011-11-30T22:41:43Z")
> [@Jas09](#): > > And a couple of polls came out today showing Newt with a HUGE lead in Floriday. Like, 30-points huge. He can rely on FL’s large number of delegates and follow the Gulliani path to victory then. Newt seems to have peaked at the right time to become the “not Romney” during the actual primaries, but I can’t picture him winning the nomination. Partially because he doesn’t seem to be able to stay in the public eye for more then a few months at a time without imploding. Partially because he’s held at least as many moderate stances as Romney (he supported the individual mandate and spent most of the last decade being vocally pro-carbon capping) Finally, because the GOP is usually pretty good at putting electability first in selecting Prez candidates. The general public more or less decided what it thought of Newt during the 90’s, and I don’t think he really has room to change that opinion much. That makes him a poor candidate in the General, and I think GOP primary voters are aware of that. ---
**Author:** ![Icarus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/icarus/32/72_2.png) [@Icarus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Icarus)\ **Post date:** [November 30, 2011, 11:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/839 "2011-11-30T23:36:29Z")
I do believe that Newt will make some headway in the primaries. But like we have seen with many in the past (McCain 2000, Huckabee), the front-runner (polls be damned) Mitt will out-organize and out-spend him and pass him up. I said back in May that Newt would be the VP in the Cheney/Biden mold (elder statesman). His recent surge convinces me of that all the more. He’ll rack up a useful pile of primary support he can hand over and he’ll provide a modicum of regional balance - he’s not a “shucks y’all” southerner, but he is from Georgia. ---
**Author:** ![Jas09](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d07c76/32.png) [@Jas09](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jas09)\ **Post date:** [December 1, 2011, 12:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/840 "2011-12-01T00:05:33Z")
> [@Simplicio](#): > > He can rely on FL’s large number of delegates and follow the Gulliani path to victory then. I share your skepticism on Newt’s chances, but I don’t think he’s doing the Giuliani approach. Especially when you consider that his lead in SC is even larger than in FL. If he wins Iowa (very possible, it’s only like 4 weeks away now), stays close in NH (also quite possible), and wins SC (seems almost certain), then Mitt is in for a big-time fight. I still think that even if all of this happens (which is basically best-case for Newt) that the GOP will backlash in time for Mitt to pick it up again on Super Tuesday and later - but I’m not sure I’d put it at much more than 50/50 right now. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160.md?page=41) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160.md?page=43)