# Handicapping the 2012 GOP presidential nomination **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [February 12, 2011, 9:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160 "2011-02-12T21:14:10Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 43
**Author:** ![John\_DiFool](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_difool/32/19543_2.png) [@John\_DiFool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_DiFool)\ **Post date:** [December 1, 2011, 12:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/841 "2011-12-01T00:53:10Z")
> [@Jas09](#): > > You guys obviously haven’t seen his new plan: [The Ron Paul Family Cookbook](http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/11/30/2012-ron-paul-family-cookbook_n_1121301.html) Let me guess-the subtitle is “To Serve Obama.” ---
**Author:** ![Crane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crane/32/3495_2.png) [@Crane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Crane)\ **Post date:** [December 2, 2011, 4:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/842 "2011-12-02T04:23:01Z")
Cain will be the big news story tomorrow. Looks like his wife did not know about Ginger and the money, and she is not amused. Time to run in the next Republican clown - it’s the Newt’s turn. Anybody believe that with Newt’s history there is nothing new to be revealed? Watch! Crane ---
**Author:** ![DadWagonDriver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/edb3f5/32.png) [@DadWagonDriver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DadWagonDriver)\ **Post date:** [December 2, 2011, 4:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/843 "2011-12-02T04:37:22Z")
> [@Crane](#): > > Cain will be the big news story tomorrow. Looks like his wife did not know about Ginger and the money, and she is not amused. I think[Biz Markie](http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9aofoBrFNdg&ob=av2e) covered this already… ---
**Author:** ![Love\_Rhombus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/love_rhombus/32/10694_2.png) [@Love\_Rhombus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Love_Rhombus)\ **Post date:** [December 3, 2011, 3:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/844 "2011-12-03T15:48:41Z")
A fun side note: [Huntsman has chosen not to attend a debate hosted by The Donald.](http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/jon-huntsman-skip-presidential-debate-moderated-donald-trump-201000365.html) My favorite bit: “We look forward to watching Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich suck up to Trump with a big bowl of popcorn,” Huntsman spokesman Tim Miller told Yahoo News. ---
**Author:** ![DoctorJ](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/doctorj/32/2904_2.png) [@DoctorJ](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DoctorJ)\ **Post date:** [December 3, 2011, 5:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/845 "2011-12-03T17:42:52Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > I had already proclaimed Mitt the winner, but I’ve changed my mind. It’s gonna be Newt. His skeletons have already been aired and all the other un-Romneys have crashed and burned. I agree that Newt has a good chance at this point (certainly better than he should), but hard as it may be to believe I don’t think all of his skeletons have been aired. He had his ethical issues when he was Speaker, and he has spent the years since running a fairly sleazy lobbying operation. I’d be surprised if he doesn’t still have a few scandals in front of him–it’s just a matter of when they’ll come out. ---
**Author:** ![Crane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crane/32/3495_2.png) [@Crane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Crane)\ **Post date:** [December 7, 2011, 9:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/846 "2011-12-07T21:47:19Z")
Newt will self destruct just like the others. He does not have the organization or funding to engage in a serious campaign. However, Newt could disrupt the primary. When Romney goes negative, the newter may find a way to raise the Mormon issue. The Gingrich template is to mix blatant negative statements with denial. Something like: ‘Mitt is an American patriot of the highest moral character, but his personal beliefs are basically Marxist.’ Crane ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [December 8, 2011, 3:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/847 "2011-12-08T03:00:08Z")
Maybe [a more rational candidate](http://xkcd.com/985/) will jump in. ---
**Author:** ![John\_DiFool](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_difool/32/19543_2.png) [@John\_DiFool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_DiFool)\ **Post date:** [December 8, 2011, 4:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/848 "2011-12-08T04:10:28Z")
Or perhaps [a darkhorse](http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=44hIoezEpgM#t=0h6m53s). Not that seeing Gingrich and Mittens engage in a Russian Roulette duel wouldn’t be entertaining… ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [December 8, 2011, 3:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/849 "2011-12-08T15:21:56Z")
[This new Quinnipiac poll](http://www.newsmax.com/InsideCover/poll-gingrich-swing-states/2011/12/08/id/420304) seems to indicate the distaste the Republican base has for Romney and their crush on Gingrich may run a little deeper than previously thought. I can’t imagine Newt making it to November without his baggage tripping him up but I also don’t know that I’m willing to buy into the inevitability of Romney’s nomination anymore. I suspect this isn’t a very good morning at Mitt’s campaign headquarters. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [December 8, 2011, 4:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/850 "2011-12-08T16:04:05Z")
I’m a believer. Newt is going to run Romney right out of town. The base clearly will never warm up to Romney and they seem blind to Newt’s many shortcomings. Since Newt has already been as discredited as one can be, it’s hard to see how anything new would turn the Republican base off on him. Newt will eat him for lunch in Iowa, then either come close or win in New Hampshire. After drubbing him again in South Carolina, all the other non-Romneys will drop out in short order. I don’t see how in a one on one primary that Romney could ever beat Gingrich. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [December 11, 2011, 8:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/851 "2011-12-11T20:52:02Z")
And it just gets worse for Mitt. [Gingrich has big leads in latest South Carolina and Florida polls](http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2011/12/11/9365498-gingrich-opens-up-big-leads-in-south-carolina-and-florida). For those who don’t want to click - in a contest with the current field of candidates Gingrich wins with 18 points over Romney in South Carolina. In Florida, Gingrich comes out on top by 15 points. When the choices were reduced to just Gingrich and Romney it just gets worse for Romney. I don’t think this is a done deal _yet_, but Mitt needs to get some traction fast or he is going to be in big trouble. I find it remarkable a candidate as obviously flawed as Newt could get this much support from the Tea Party crowd and the Republican base but it looks like there is something about him that resonates with these people. After watching part of last night’s Iowa debate I have to say Newt managed to come off as much less smug and condescending than I expected. I’m not convinced yet he has staying power given his past, but I think this is a much more serious challenge to the inevitable Romney nomination than has yet been seen. In another thread a few days ago I said I had changed my mind on chances of Gingrich getting the nomination from being impossible to simply unlikely. I’m beginning to think it is actually a possibility, albeit remote. Caucus night should be very interesting. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [December 12, 2011, 2:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/852 "2011-12-12T02:06:11Z")
> [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](#): > > I find it remarkable a candidate as obviously flawed as Newt could get this much support from the Tea Party crowd and the Republican base but it looks like there is something about him that resonates with these people. Well, he was screwing his Congressional staffer Callista Gingrich behind his wife’s back (while at the same time investigating Clinton), proved that he could shut down and destroy government, supplied inaccurate information to House investigators which represented “intentional or … reckless” disregard of House rules and led the Republicans to the worst midterm performance in 64 years, leading to him quitting the House in a fit of pique. I guess the voters see him as representing their ethical, moral and professional ideals. ---
**Author:** ![Crane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crane/32/3495_2.png) [@Crane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Crane)\ **Post date:** [December 12, 2011, 10:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/853 "2011-12-12T22:32:26Z")
It keeps getting funnier - what act will follow Gingrich? I notice that Bachmann is getting some good press. Crane ---
**Author:** ![Crane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crane/32/3495_2.png) [@Crane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Crane)\ **Post date:** [December 15, 2011, 10:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/854 "2011-12-15T22:40:57Z")
Gingrich is likely to self destruct before the Iowa ‘Primary’. It looks like Ron Paul is next in line rather than Bachmann. Crane ---
**Author:** ![Onomatopoeia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/onomatopoeia/32/4145_2.png) [@Onomatopoeia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Onomatopoeia)\ **Post date:** [December 15, 2011, 11:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/855 "2011-12-15T23:32:06Z")
> [@Crane](#): > > Gingrich is likely to self destruct before the Iowa ‘Primary’. It looks like Ron Paul is next in line rather than Bachmann. > > Crane What? Ron Paul gets a turn as the Not-Romney before Santorum? 😉 ---
**Author:** ![Balance](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/ccd318/32.png) [@Balance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Balance)\ **Post date:** [December 16, 2011, 2:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/856 "2011-12-16T02:30:35Z")
> [@Onomatopoeia](#): > > What? Ron Paul gets a turn as the Not-Romney before Santorum? 😉 Naturally. Santorum comes up at the end. ---
**Author:** ![Zakalwe](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/zakalwe/32/270_2.png) [@Zakalwe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zakalwe)\ **Post date:** [December 16, 2011, 4:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/857 "2011-12-16T04:07:05Z")
> [@Onomatopoeia](#): > > What? Ron Paul gets a turn as the Not-Romney before Santorum? 😉 > [@Balance](#): > > Naturally. Santorum comes up at the end. Admit it. You two set that up in email before posting it, didn’t you? ---
**Author:** ![Crane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crane/32/3495_2.png) [@Crane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Crane)\ **Post date:** [December 16, 2011, 4:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/858 "2011-12-16T16:52:48Z")
Mollie Ivans described the Republican candidates well (from memory): ‘They are all dipshits. You just get to pick which dipshit to vote for’ Crane ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [December 18, 2011, 11:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/859 "2011-12-18T11:59:50Z")
> [@Crane](#): > > Mollie Ivans described the Republican candidates well (from memory): > ‘They are all dipshits. You just get to pick which dipshit to vote for’ > Crane And never has it been so true as in the 2012 cycle. Lord knows the 2008 field looked weak, but this year’s field is making McCain, Huckabee, Fred Thompson, and even the Romney of 2007-08 look like giants by comparison. (Rudy 911, OTOH, would have fit right in in this circus; it’s too bad he didn’t come back for an encore.) Hell, they even make GWB look good by comparison, and I’d have told you not very long ago that that would be impossible. But they’ve managed it. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [December 18, 2011, 12:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/860 "2011-12-18T12:29:08Z")
Rick Perry just can’t help himself, can he? His latest is that [he’d consider having Herman Cain in his Cabinet](http://caucuses.desmoinesregister.com/2011/12/17/rick-perry-herman-cain-is-the-type-of-person-id-consider-for-defense-appointment/). The URL suggests Perry would specifically consider him for Secretary of Defense, but the text of the article doesn’t back that up, only citing where Cain himself has said he’d like to be considered for that post. But still, I think considering him for ANY Cabinet post is bad enough at this point. Now that Cain’s dropped out, even the wingnuts have been able to accept his clownitude, I think. This is only going to reinforce the notion that Perry doesn’t have the brains to even play a President on TV. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160.md?page=42) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160.md?page=44)