# Handicapping the 2012 GOP presidential nomination **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [February 12, 2011, 9:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160 "2011-02-12T21:14:10Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 47
**Author:** ![Lantern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/d26b3c/32.png) [@Lantern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lantern)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2012, 5:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/921 "2012-03-13T05:14:52Z")
The Alabama and Mississippi races are pretty murky. After Super Tuesday I thought Santorum would win them easily perhaps knocking Gingrich out of the race. However polls indicate otherwise with Gingrich and Romney tying and Santorum a little way behind. However we only have a few polls and Nate Silver has a long [post](http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/03/12/polling-in-deep-south-has-posed-challenges/?gwh=AB0579A65D842874FCE4508C9C5861A9)about the challenges of polling in the deep South. ``` A Romney win would greatly reduce doubts about the breadth of his appeal within the Republican party. He probably wouldn't mind a Gingrich win which would keep him in the race dividing conservative votes. The only scenario that would have worried him: Santorum winning heavily and knocking out Gingrich doesn't appear likely at this point unless the polls are heavily off the mark. ``` ---
**Author:** ![Crane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crane/32/3495_2.png) [@Crane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Crane)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2012, 11:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/922 "2012-03-18T23:25:08Z")
Handicapping is still in order. Romney is only able to buy 35% or less of the far right vote. Even he does not have the funds to outspend Obama 3 to 1. So, will the Republican establishment accept such a weak candidate? If not, who the White Night (or last guy in the clown car)? Crane ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [March 19, 2012, 12:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/923 "2012-03-19T00:07:58Z")
Romney is the guy the Republican establishment likes. He’ll get some of the far right vote if he gets nominated, and it’ll be up to him to make sure they show up and vote for him - since at the end of the day it’ll be him or Obama. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [March 19, 2012, 12:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/924 "2012-03-19T00:14:05Z")
Meanwhile, Romney won the Puerto Rico primary and it looks like he got more than 80 percent of the vote and all 20 delegates. Santorum wasn’t going to win there anyway, but I guess his strategy of telling them they can’t be a state unless they learn English didn’t work. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [March 19, 2012, 12:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/925 "2012-03-19T00:24:56Z")
I particularly enjoyed the part where he based his position on nonexistent federal law. ---
**Author:** ![Crane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crane/32/3495_2.png) [@Crane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Crane)\ **Post date:** [March 21, 2012, 7:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/926 "2012-03-21T19:23:25Z")
Maybe it’s not too late for Tebow to jump in the Clown car. Crane ---
**Author:** ![5\_time\_champ](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/5/278dde/32.png) [@5\_time\_champ](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/5_time_champ)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2012, 1:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/927 "2012-03-22T01:26:14Z")
Actually, too early- Tebow won’t reach the Constitutional age of 35 until the 2024 presidential election cycle. ---
**Author:** ![Crane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crane/32/3495_2.png) [@Crane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Crane)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2012, 4:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/928 "2012-03-22T16:08:18Z")
Rats! Crane ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2012, 6:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/929 "2012-03-29T06:02:19Z")
Some argue that Romney had it in the bag as early as last summer. That well may be so. But mark your calenders. It’s late March. The bigwigs have begun to circle the wagons around the presumptive nominee, Mitt Willard Romney. GWBush endorsed him. Rubio is shilling for him on national television. Tea Party hack Senator Jim DeMint delivered his blessing last week. Newt Gingrich is reduced to hoping for a brokered convention, where his awesome speech making/demagoguery wows the delegates and hands him the Presidency by popular acclaim. Santorum is being smacked down by the elites when he gets out of line with his comparisons between Romney and Obama. The rank and file are getting the message. Nate Silver puts Romney’s odds at winning winner-take-all Wisconsin above 90%. I think we can say that Romney locked the deal in late March 2012. The message to the Republican primary voter is clear: obey. Get in line and do what you’re told. FWIW, intrade puts Romney’s chances at 93%: I’m a little surprised that it isn’t north of 95%. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [April 3, 2012, 5:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/931 "2012-04-03T17:43:54Z")
Santorum is basically conceding that not only will he lose in Wisconsin tomorrow (along with Maryland and DC), Romney’s going to win just about everything this month: Connecticut, Delaware, New York, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island all vote on April 24. Santorum thinks he can compete in Pennsylvania, obviously, but that’s about it. He’s talking about a big comeback in May, blah blah blah. I guess the question will be whether or not Santorum can win Pennsylvania and justify staying in the race - and I mean those as two separate questions. He’s already too far behind to have a real shot at winning, and if Romney wins seven or eight contests this month, Santorum doesn’t have much of a case for continuing to campaign. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [April 3, 2012, 7:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/932 "2012-04-03T19:22:35Z")
> [@Marley23](#): > > Santorum is basically conceding that not only will he lose in Wisconsin tomorrow (along with Maryland and DC), Romney’s going to win just about everything this month: Connecticut, Delaware, New York, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island all vote on April 24. Santorum thinks he can compete in Pennsylvania, obviously, but that’s about it. He’s talking about a big comeback in May, blah blah blah. I guess the question will be whether or not Santorum can win Pennsylvania and justify staying in the race - and I mean those as two separate questions. He’s already too far behind to have a real shot at winning, and if Romney wins seven or eight contests this month, Santorum doesn’t have much of a case for continuing to campaign. Ah, but how are you going to stop him? He doesn’t have to have much of a case, he just has to have barely enough money to keep going. Of course, the rest of us don’t have to continue to pay attention to him. The fun part, though, is noticing how little enthusiasm the recent wave of Romney endorsers have brought to the task. DeMint and Rubio and all know that Romney’s wrapped it up, but they still can’t manage to get more than lukewarm about the prospect, even as they endorse him. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [April 3, 2012, 8:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/933 "2012-04-03T20:32:20Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > Ah, but how are you going to stop him? He doesn’t have to have much of a case, he just has to have barely enough money to keep going. I’m saying it’s only going to get harder for him to raise money- or justify his presence in the race to donors or anyone else whose opinion he might be interested in. ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [April 3, 2012, 9:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/934 "2012-04-03T21:29:24Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > Ah, but how are you going to stop him? He doesn’t have to have much of a case, he just has to have barely enough money to keep going. But Santorum’s really playing for 2016, isn’t he? ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [April 3, 2012, 9:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/935 "2012-04-03T21:30:51Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > But he’s really playing for 2016, isn’t he? No, he’s just losing. ---
**Author:** ![Onomatopoeia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/onomatopoeia/32/4145_2.png) [@Onomatopoeia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Onomatopoeia)\ **Post date:** [April 4, 2012, 12:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/936 "2012-04-04T00:21:58Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > But Santorum’s really playing for 2016, isn’t he? > [@Marley23](#): > > No, he’s just losing. I agree with **Marley23** ; I don’t see Santorum running in 2016. In fact, I’ll step just a few feet out on a limb and say that after Obama wins in November the Republican party will reassess, if ever so slightly, and will push for an actual viable candidate to go up against [currently unknown Democrat] in 2016. ---
**Author:** ![jayjay](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jayjay/32/6765_2.png) [@jayjay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jayjay)\ **Post date:** [April 4, 2012, 12:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/937 "2012-04-04T00:34:50Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > But Santorum’s really playing for 2016, isn’t he? No, 2016 is when the real GOP candidates are going to run (Rubio, Christie, Daniels, possibly Ryan). Now, understand that I consider the “real” GOP candidates to be just as bad as the Kooky Klown Kar we’ve got making the primary rounds now. But the big names are coming out in 2016 and they’re going shade Santorum into “Rick Who?” territory. Santorum only got as far as he did this year because the big names (other than Romney, who’s running this year because “it’s his turn” and pretty much his last shot at the nom) knew they weren’t going to be guaranteed a win against Obama in November (because they actually recognize that the economy isn’t something that you can predict that far ahead), and none of them want the “loser” label like Romney’s likely to get after this election, or like Dole got after 1996, or like Gore got after 2000. It’s one thing to lose the nomination of your party…that gets forgotten and you can try again without major prejudice against you. But losing the Presidency in the general knocks you out for good if you’re major-party. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [April 4, 2012, 1:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/938 "2012-04-04T01:39:31Z")
DC and Maryland have already been called for Romney, and the exit polls look good for him in Wisconsin. In fact CNN has called Wisconsin for Romney, too. Oh, Romney will be reciting a lot of public domain patriotic songs tonight. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [April 4, 2012, 1:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/939 "2012-04-04T01:55:42Z")
And I think everybody has now called Wisconsin for Romney. No big comebacks and no all-night tabulations this time. Everything was in the bag before 10 p.m. Eastern. ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [April 4, 2012, 11:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/940 "2012-04-04T11:09:06Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > But Santorum’s really playing for 2016, isn’t he? That’s almost as delusional. After Romney gets his head handed to him in the general election, the party will be looking for someone to blame, and the guy who insisted on dragging out the primaries and leaving the already-inevitable nominee further bloodied is a rather obvious candidate. I mean, you can’t expect the party leadership to blame _itself_, can you? ---
**Author:** ![Typo\_Knig](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/cdc98d/32.png) [@Typo\_Knig](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Typo_Knig)\ **Post date:** [April 4, 2012, 11:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/941 "2012-04-04T11:40:49Z")
The party leadership may blame each other. From my POV that would be a circular firing squad worth watching. What the R team should do is re-evaluate their goals, strategy, and tactics relative to the electorate and make appropriate changes. What they are most likely to do is decide they weren’t insanely conservative enough and move so far to the right that Poe’s Law becomes a minimal statement. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160.md?page=46) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160.md?page=48)