# Handicapping the 2012 GOP presidential nomination **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [February 12, 2011, 9:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160 "2011-02-12T21:14:10Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 15\ **Page:** 48
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [April 4, 2012, 11:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/942 "2012-04-04T11:50:58Z")
> [@Steve\_MB](#): > > That’s almost as delusional. After Romney gets his head handed to him in the general election, the party will be looking for someone to blame, and the guy who insisted on dragging out the primaries and leaving the already-inevitable nominee further bloodied is a rather obvious candidate. I mean, you can’t expect the party leadership to blame _itself_, can you? Which is why we’re seeing people like GWB dragged out to give lukewarm endorsements to Romney. It’s not that Romney needs the support; it’s that the party leadership are saying “We don’t support Santorum and anything he says or does is not our fault”. Inevitably Santorum will be the guy with the “Kick Me” sign on his back at the GOP convention, and when Romney loses in November (assuming he does) Santorum will get the blame rightly or wrongly. ---
**Author:** ![gamerunknown](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/6bbea6/32.png) [@gamerunknown](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gamerunknown)\ **Post date:** [April 4, 2012, 12:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/943 "2012-04-04T12:38:35Z")
So Mitt Romney will leave Santorum trailing behind. Do you think Santorum staying in for so long will damage Romney and force the Republican party leadership to clean up the mess? How far do you think the Republicans will go to avoid Santorum? Will they shift to the left and endorse contraception? Or to the right and attempt to ban anal sex entirely? ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [April 4, 2012, 1:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/944 "2012-04-04T13:09:51Z")
> [@Marley23](#): > > No, he’s just losing. The two are not exclusive! ---
**Author:** ![mkecane](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/9e8a1a/32.png) [@mkecane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mkecane)\ **Post date:** [April 4, 2012, 1:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/945 "2012-04-04T13:26:59Z")
Something funny I realized last night: I didn’t see one pro-Santorum ad, either on tv or online (Milwaukee area), in the past few weeks. I saw plenty of pro-Romney ads, and I saw anti-Romney ads. Last night, more than an hour after the polls had closed, I finally saw a pro-Santorum ad on the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel website suggesting I get to the poll on April 3rd. Heh. ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [April 4, 2012, 1:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/946 "2012-04-04T13:31:59Z")
> [@gamerunknown](#): > > So Mitt Romney will leave Santorum trailing behind. Do you think Santorum staying in for so long will damage Romney and force the Republican party leadership to clean up the mess? How far do you think the Republicans will go to avoid Santorum? Will they shift to the left and endorse contraception? Or to the right and attempt to ban anal sex entirely? Oi - stop that, you. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [April 4, 2012, 2:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/947 "2012-04-04T14:10:44Z")
> [@jayjay](#): > > No, 2016 is when the real GOP candidates are going to run (Rubio, Christie, Daniels, possibly Ryan). Now, understand that I consider the “real” GOP candidates to be just as bad as the Kooky Klown Kar we’ve got making the primary rounds now. But the big names are coming out in 2016 and they’re going shade Santorum into “Rick Who?” territory. Santorum only got as far as he did this year because the big names (other than Romney[) stayed on the sidelines.] This. If Santorum runs in 2016, he’ll be an also-ran. > [@](#): > > It’s one thing to lose the nomination of your party…that gets forgotten and you can try again without major prejudice against you. But losing the Presidency in the general knocks you out for good if you’re major-party. One unfortunate exception: Richard Nixon. And obviously this is a guessing game, but IMHO, if Reagan had won the GOP nomination in 1976 but lost to Carter in the general, I doubt it would have hurt his chances for either the nomination or the election itself in the rematch. But on the whole, you’re right: losing a full Presidential campaign exposes a candidate’s limitations like nothing else. Once a Presidential candidate loses in the general election, even a good chunk of that candidate’s most enthusiastic supporters are ready for someone else next time. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [April 4, 2012, 2:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/948 "2012-04-04T14:19:26Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > The two are not exclusive! He’s not in it to get recognition and raise his profile for 2016. Through an absurd series of events, he’s one of the leading candidates this year. He’s not going to win, but he isn’t playing the long game. If I’d told you in 2010 that some of the leading contenders for the Republicans - not just candidates, people who got some press as the frontrunner - included Rick Santorum, Newt Gingrich, Michele Bachmann, and a pizza company CEO you probably hadn’t heard of, you wouldn’t say “oh, they’re just in it for 2016.” You’d say “Wow, the field must be terrible,” and you’d be right. And over the next month or so he’ll just be alienating important people in the party anyway, which wouldn’t help his chances in 2016 even if they existed. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [April 4, 2012, 2:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/949 "2012-04-04T14:41:40Z")
> [@5\_time\_champ](#): > > Actually, too early- Tebow won’t reach the Constitutional age of 35 until the 2024 presidential election cycle. He’s also not registered to vote. ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [April 4, 2012, 2:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/950 "2012-04-04T14:53:23Z")
> [@gamerunknown](#): > > So Do you think Santorum staying in for so long will damage Romney The longer it stays in, the greater the risk of a nasty infection. ---
**Author:** ![E-Sabbath](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/e19adc/32.png) [@E-Sabbath](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/E-Sabbath)\ **Post date:** [April 4, 2012, 5:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/951 "2012-04-04T17:12:26Z")
I think the guy being groomed for 2016 is Paul Ryan. Sigh. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [April 4, 2012, 9:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/952 "2012-04-04T21:38:12Z")
[Here’s the AP story on the status of the race.](http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5ihZ3RAe0OT7_f5m64V5k83hfuuhg?docId=f81bba9034804452a2baa5e2748e40d7) The main points: Santorum cannot win outright, and Romney is on pace to clinch the nomination on June 5 based on his current pace (he’s received 58 percent of the delegates alloted so far). I don’t think this takes into account the fact that Romney is likely to do much better than that in the upcoming races. Based on the schedule I’m not sure he can lock it up much earlier than that, but either way, Romney is pulling away and the finish line is in view. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [April 4, 2012, 9:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/953 "2012-04-04T21:41:08Z")
> [@Marley23](#): > > [Here’s the AP story on the status of the race.](http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5ihZ3RAe0OT7_f5m64V5k83hfuuhg?docId=f81bba9034804452a2baa5e2748e40d7) The main points: Santorum cannot win outright, and Romney is on pace to clinch the nomination on June 5 based on his current pace (he’s received 58 percent of the delegates alloted so far). I don’t think this takes into account the fact that Romney is likely to do much better than that in the upcoming races. Based on the schedule I’m not sure he can lock it up much earlier than that, but either way, Romney is pulling away and the finish line is in view. Does that completely rule out the possibility of a convention floor-fight? ☹ If so, when are Santorum, Gingrich and Paul going to accept the inevitable and drop out? I’ve often read in this forum predictions that **none** of them will before the convention. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [April 4, 2012, 10:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/954 "2012-04-04T22:18:15Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > Does that completely rule out the possibility of a convention floor-fight? ☹ If it makes you feel better, you could remind yourself there was really no chance of that to begin with, so this doesn’t change things very much. Nor will the wins Romney is about to get in all those East Coast primaries on April 24. (This thread might get quiet until then.) The thing about dropping out always comes down to their donors and whether they feel like continuing to fund the candidates or not. Maybe Santo will give up if Romney beats him in Pennsylvania, but he can at least say that there are primaries in May that he should win. I guess it’s more likely he won’t quit until Romney officially seals the deal. I think Newt is probably close to admitting the inevitable: it’s not going to be Newt and Santo combining to stop Romney; it’s down to just Santorum and Romney, and even Santorum’s chance at winning is theoretical. I would be very surprised if Paul called it quits since he really has nothing else to do with his time. I mean, there’s Congress, but… ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [April 5, 2012, 12:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/955 "2012-04-05T00:19:48Z")
The [math](http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/primaries/delegates) is pretty clear: of the 1144 needed, Dog-on-Car had 658 while Man-on-Dog has 281. (For completists. Pork-on-the-Moon has 145 and Spin-Banknotes-into-Gold has 51). At this point, the main strategic decision for is whether to pile on in Pennsylvania to pressure Frothymix into dropping out (or humiliate him for being stubborn). ---
**Author:** ![Crane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crane/32/3495_2.png) [@Crane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Crane)\ **Post date:** [April 10, 2012, 7:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/956 "2012-04-10T19:52:41Z")
Last clown out of the clown car was Romney after all (Gingrich is stuck in the car) Crane [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160.md?page=47)