# Handicapping the 2012 GOP presidential nomination **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [February 12, 2011, 9:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160 "2011-02-12T21:14:10Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 6
**Author:** ![beartato](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/9d8465/32.png) [@beartato](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/beartato)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2011, 4:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/101 "2011-03-08T16:51:59Z")
She really, really wants to hear you all beg for her, doesn’t she? She always did seem like that kind of girl. ---
**Author:** ![That\_Don\_Guy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/that_don_guy/32/538_2.png) [@That\_Don\_Guy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/That_Don_Guy)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2011, 8:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/102 "2011-03-08T20:25:52Z")
Right now, there’s a wild card in the primary process. The RNC recently passed rules saying that only the “first four” (Iowa, NH, SC, Nevada) can have primaries in February, yet pretty much every “Super Tuesday” state still has state laws saying that their primaries are (still) in February. Since the RNC rules on dates pretty much match the DNC’s new rules, the February states “should” get their acts together and this “shouldn’t” be a problem…but that’s what they said when California switched to an open primary (in 2000?) despite the RNC rules saying that a primary doesn’t count if non-Republicans can vote in it. (Eventually, they found a loophole that allowed only votes by registered Republicans to count in the Presidential primary.) – Don ---
**Author:** ![Tom\_Scud](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/f08c70/32.png) [@Tom\_Scud](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tom_Scud)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2011, 9:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/103 "2011-03-08T21:05:45Z")
> [@Jophiel](#): > > There ya go. If she doesn’t run, it’s the American electorate’s fault for not being ready for such an amazing person. She’s got tiger blood. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2011, 11:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/104 "2011-03-08T23:49:50Z")
Personally, I think that if a political party is going to have the nerve to make the government pay for the costs of running their primary, they should just sit back and accept whatever rules the government comes up with. ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Lance\_Murdoch](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/47e85d/32.png) [@Captain\_Lance\_Murdoch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Lance_Murdoch)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2011, 4:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/105 "2011-03-18T04:08:06Z")
Pawlenty is picking up steam. The Colbert Report dedicated an entire segment to making fun of him and the NY Times did a high profile piece on how he is all things to all people. True, these things could be seen as negatives, but I think it’s seen as a badge of honor to be nicked in the liberul media. Besides, it’s got to boost his name recognition. He also gained a lot of attention for taking on a fake Southern accent recently. This is just bizarre and has made him something of a laughingstock round these parts. He might want to can that from now on. ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Lance\_Murdoch](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/47e85d/32.png) [@Captain\_Lance\_Murdoch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Lance_Murdoch)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2011, 4:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/106 "2011-03-18T04:28:54Z")
> [@a35362](#): > > No, I really think Palin does have the intellectual capacity to learn about policy issues if she wanted to. She just doesn’t care. _That’s_ her problem – that she doesn’t seem to think her ignorance would be a problem down the road. She’s all ego – “I deserve this” and “How dare you question me?” Maybe she figures there will be lots of nice people waiting for her in the White House who will tell her what to say and do, and that’ll be good enough. She’s like Lina Lamont in _Singin’ in the Rain_ – “Oh, everybody’s pickin’ on me!” > > Bachmann, on the other hand, is just a loony. A high-functioning loony, but still barking mad. But she’s attractive and can speak in complete sentences, so people give her a pass. The two of the are indistinguishable on the issues. And they both talk funny. > [@](#): > > “I knew that we’d be buddies when I met her when she said, ‘Drill here, drill now,’” Palin said. “And then I replied, ‘Drill baby drill,’ and then we both said, ‘You betcha!’” The difference is that Palin has a rabid following of goofs who will wait in line for hours to get her signature on their copy of Going Rogue. Bachmann is by far the second banana in this comedy team. Her widely rumored to be gay husband wouldn’t boost her odds either. Bachmann is a non-starter in this thing. ---
**Author:** ![Crane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crane/32/3495_2.png) [@Crane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Crane)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2011, 12:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/107 "2011-03-22T12:00:11Z")
Captain, You are missing the point. Neither Palin or Bachmann is a loon, goof or whatever. They have both been elected to public office and both understand that you get elected by speaking to your base, not to your competition. Their inane and often incorrect views are shared by their constituency. Palin and Bachmann will draw the primary crowds. Pawlenty et al will stand by and watch. Crane ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2011, 2:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/108 "2011-03-22T14:26:32Z")
You get _nominated_ by speaking to your base. You get _elected_ by speaking to everyone else. ---
**Author:** ![Crane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crane/32/3495_2.png) [@Crane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Crane)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2011, 3:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/109 "2011-03-22T15:26:12Z")
Really, Correct, and that is the way I believe it will play out - strong nomination - disastrous election… Crane ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2011, 4:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/110 "2011-03-22T16:29:49Z")
From your lips to god’s ears… ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Lance\_Murdoch](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/47e85d/32.png) [@Captain\_Lance\_Murdoch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Lance_Murdoch)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2011, 5:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/111 "2011-03-22T17:15:41Z")
> [@Crane](#): > > Captain, > > You are missing the point. Neither Palin or Bachmann is a loon, goof or whatever. They have both been elected to public office and both understand that you get elected by speaking to your base, not to your competition. Their inane and often incorrect views are shared by their constituency. > > Palin and Bachmann will draw the primary crowds. Pawlenty et al will stand by and watch. > > Crane Um, Pawlenty has been elected too. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2011, 7:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/112 "2011-03-22T19:48:54Z")
> [@](#): > > Their inane and often incorrect views are shared by their constituency. The interesting thing about Bachmann is that she’s not restricted to partisan loonery. Didn’t she have something about wanting to give Obama a big hug and a kiss, or some such? ---
**Author:** ![wonky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wonky/32/393_2.png) [@wonky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wonky)\ **Post date:** [March 25, 2011, 1:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/113 "2011-03-25T01:45:10Z")
[This article](http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/03/24/the-first-2012-debate-approaches-or-does-it/?nl=us&emc=politicsemailema2) suggests this year’s campaigning is off to a slow start. [ > [@](#): > > So far, with only about five weeks until the debate, most of the big-name potential candidates have not even said whether they are running. Most are remaining coy about their timing, but operatives regularly suggest that they could wait until later this spring to announce their candidacies… > > \ > > But the race was much further along by early May 2007. By April 15, Mr. McCain reported raising $18 million in the first quarter. Mr. Romney, who announced his candidacy in February, reported having raised $20.6 million in the first quarter. > > By contrast, the April 15 fund-raising reports this year are likely to show almost no official campaign fund-raising, with the exception of Newt Gingrich, who announced the formation of an I.R.S. committee that allows him to start collecting money for a potential campaign. ]([The First 2012 Debate Approaches. Or Does it? - The New York Times](http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/03/24/the-first-2012-debate-approaches-or-does-it/?nl=us&emc=politicsemailema2)) 2007’s first debate was in early May with 10 candidates. Is that just a function of having an incumbent or is there something a bit odd about it? ---
**Author:** ![Simplicio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c37758/32.png) [@Simplicio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Simplicio)\ **Post date:** [March 25, 2011, 2:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/114 "2011-03-25T02:21:09Z")
> [@jsgoddess](#): > > Is that just a function of having an incumbent or is there something a bit odd about it? Basically all the serious Dem candidates were in by January of '03 for the '04 race, and many only waited that long to see what Gore would do (he announced he wasn’t running at the end of '02). Things started even earlier for the GOP for '96, since they didn’t have someone with right of first refusal like Gore to wait on, and because Clinton looked like he was going down after the '94 mid-terms. So yea, its unusual. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2011, 8:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/115 "2011-03-27T20:44:39Z")
[Michele Bachmann says she’s “in for 2012” but hasn’t actually announced.](http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/03/26/bachmann-in-2012/?iref=allsearch) Democracy is the one truly amusing form of government humanity has ever devised. ---
**Author:** ![Simplicio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c37758/32.png) [@Simplicio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Simplicio)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2011, 8:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/116 "2011-03-27T20:54:24Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > [Michele Bachmann says she’s “in for 2012” but hasn’t actually announced.](http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/03/26/bachmann-in-2012/?iref=allsearch) > > Democracy is the one truly amusing form of government humanity has ever devised. > [@Bachmann](#): > > “The president has us engaged it yet another, third Middle Eastern war, talk about March Madness, can anyone say Jimmy Carter?” Bachmann said. This is like a sentence produced by one of those Spambots where it just takes a bunch of words that come up frequently on google and cram them into a possibly syntactically correct sentence. ---
**Author:** ![AbloyProtec](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/9f8e36/32.png) [@AbloyProtec](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AbloyProtec)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2011, 10:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/117 "2011-03-27T22:47:16Z")
3 pages and no mention of Herman Cain? This guy has been holding almost monthly rallies/speeches to relatively large crowds in the Iowa for the past year. If he keeps this up, he’s going to have a **very** solid base come primary time. The networks are just now starting to pick up on him. ---
**Author:** ![OttoDaFe](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ottodafe/32/356_2.png) [@OttoDaFe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/OttoDaFe)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2011, 10:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/118 "2011-03-27T22:59:56Z")
> [@AbloyProtec](#): > > 3 pages and no mention of Herman Cain? This guy has been holding almost monthly rallies/speeches to relatively large crowds in the Iowa for the past year. If he keeps this up, he’s going to have a **very** solid base come primary time. The networks are just now starting to pick up on him. And I’m eagerly awaiting the gyrations the KDFs\* will go through to justify voting for someone named “Cain.” \*Knuckle-dragging fundamentalists (as opposed to the garden variety). ---
**Author:** ![AbloyProtec](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/9f8e36/32.png) [@AbloyProtec](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AbloyProtec)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2011, 11:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/119 "2011-03-27T23:24:52Z")
> [@OttoDaFe](#): > > And I’m eagerly awaiting the gyrations the KDFs\* will go through to justify voting for someone named “Cain.” > > \*Knuckle-dragging fundamentalists (as opposed to the garden variety). Yes because he, or any other GOP candidate, is incapable of attracting voters through ideas, policies, and other aspects devout of color, race, creed, gender, and even name. Troll? ---
**Author:** ![Cisco](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/ccd318/32.png) [@Cisco](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cisco)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2011, 12:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/120 "2011-03-28T00:44:46Z")
> [@AbloyProtec](#): > > 3 pages and no mention of Herman Cain? This guy has been holding almost monthly rallies/speeches to relatively large crowds in the Iowa for the past year. If he keeps this up, he’s going to have a **very** solid base come primary time. The networks are just now starting to pick up on him. Lol [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160.md?page=5) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160.md?page=7)