# Handicapping the 2012 GOP presidential nomination **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [February 12, 2011, 9:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160 "2011-02-12T21:14:10Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 7
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2011, 1:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/121 "2011-03-28T01:00:27Z")
The fact that the dude has no mention over three pages is, in fact, an indication that he does _not_ have a very solid base. Has anyone other than the same folks who keep coming to all his rallies ever heard of him? What’s he done before? What big ideas is he bringing to the table? How much money has he raised? Yes, yes, I could no doubt look him up on Wikipedia and learn the answers to all those questions, but the fact that I even have to ask is a very bad sign for him as a candidate. ---
**Author:** ![OttoDaFe](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ottodafe/32/356_2.png) [@OttoDaFe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/OttoDaFe)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2011, 1:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/122 "2011-03-28T01:08:52Z")
> [@AbloyProtec](#): > > Yes because he, or any other GOP candidate, is incapable of attracting voters through ideas, policies, and other aspects devout of color, race, creed, gender, and even name. Umm . . . care to point out where I said only KDFs would be voting for Cain? > [@AbloyProtec](#): > > Troll? I guess I’ve been royally put in my place. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2011, 2:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/123 "2011-03-28T02:00:32Z")
(scrolling up …) Phew. I thought KDF meant Kraft Durch Freude. ---
**Author:** ![Cisco](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/ccd318/32.png) [@Cisco](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cisco)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2011, 2:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/124 "2011-03-28T02:14:47Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > The fact that the dude has no mention over three pages is, in fact, an indication that he does _not_ have a very solid base. Has anyone other than the same folks who keep coming to all his rallies ever heard of him? What’s he done before? What big ideas is he bringing to the table? How much money has he raised? Yes, yes, I could no doubt look him up on Wikipedia and learn the answers to all those questions, but the fact that I even have to ask is a very bad sign for him as a candidate. There were plenty of people, even a lot of future Obama voters, who had never heard of Obama at this point in the last Presidential election cycle. However, there are other things that are very bad signs for Herman Cain as a candidate. For one, he’s a Teabagger, and that ship seems to be sailing at about the same rate that the 112th congress is diarrheaing on their campaign promises of fiscal restraint in favor of spending money on social conservatism. Oh, and he’s black. And I will unabashedly state that a significant number of people who would otherwise like what he says will have a hard time getting worked up about voting for a black man. You’re living in a fantasy world if you don’t realize that this would hurt/kill his (extremely hypothetical) run at office. Not that I think people will be thrilled with the Democrats next year, but I’m fairly sure that the label “Tea Party” will rightfully be seen as the joke it’s always been by then. It served its purpose for the Republican party and they’re just about done with it. ---
**Author:** ![Simplicio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c37758/32.png) [@Simplicio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Simplicio)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2011, 2:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/125 "2011-03-28T02:38:14Z")
> [@Cisco](#): > > There were plenty of people, even a lot of future Obama voters, who had never heard of Obama at this point in the last Presidential election cycle.. Most politically interested people were aware of Obama at this point in the '08 cycle. I don’t think you can say the same for Herman Cain. I guess its possible that Cain and other marginal candidates might gain a boost if the ‘real’ candidates go much longer without actually starting to run for the nomination. After all, the media is eventually going to want to start talking people up as _actual_ candidates, and say what you will about Cain, he’s at least pretty straightforward about running for Prez. That said, I agree he won’t actually win. ---
**Author:** ![wonky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wonky/32/393_2.png) [@wonky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wonky)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2011, 3:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/126 "2011-03-28T03:04:56Z")
> [@Cisco](#): > > There were plenty of people, even a lot of future Obama voters, who had never heard of Obama at this point in the last Presidential election cycle. Obama wasn’t polling badly at all by this point in 2007. Cain doesn’t appear to be polling at all. ---
**Author:** ![wonky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wonky/32/393_2.png) [@wonky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wonky)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2011, 3:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/127 "2011-03-28T03:10:34Z")
Missed my edit window: > [@Simplicio](#): > > I guess its possible that Cain and other marginal candidates might gain a boost if the ‘real’ candidates go much longer without actually starting to run for the nomination. After all, the media is eventually going to want to start talking people up as _actual_ candidates, and say what you will about Cain, he’s at least pretty straightforward about running for Prez. Last time, there wasn’t a lot of enthusiasm for anyone the Republicans were running, which led a bunch of people (especially Freepers) to latch on to their great savior… Fred Thompson. I’m not really contradicting you but I think people desperate for a candidate would look elsewhere than Herman Cain. St. Sarah would be a likely one to want to ride to the rescue and claim that she simply HAD to enter the race (then pull out early claiming she was being threatened). ---
**Author:** ![Tom\_Scud](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/f08c70/32.png) [@Tom\_Scud](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tom_Scud)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2011, 2:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/128 "2011-03-28T14:16:31Z")
Aside from everything else, Cain’s only experience as a candidate (from his Wikipedia page, possibly they are omitting something) was a failed primary run for a Senate seat; he didn’t even get his party’s nomination. ---
**Author:** ![Rhythmdvl](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/85f322/32.png) [@Rhythmdvl](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rhythmdvl)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2011, 4:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/129 "2011-03-28T16:11:52Z")
> [@Cisco](#): > > Not that I think people will be thrilled with the Democrats next year, but I’m fairly sure that the label “Tea Party” will rightfully be seen as the joke it’s always been by then. It served its purpose for the Republican party and they’re just about done with it. Wishful thinking. I mean that in both senses of the word. “Wishful,” as in I wish conservatives would gear up and present more in-depth ideas and rhetoric than that designed to appeal to the tea party mass. Some of the goals may be the same, but the vehicle and manner of implementation coming from a ditto head versus, say, a Buckley-ite are two different things. And wishful thinking in the sardonic sense. Between Fox, talk radio, and the Koch brothers, there is a _lot_ of media and money to be spent propping up tea party candidates. All three know they it will be easier to get what they want (money, power) by appealing to the tea party’s base instincts. No one is laughing. ☹ ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2011, 4:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/130 "2011-03-28T16:19:40Z")
Apparently he won the [Redstate.com](http://Redstate.com) reader poll. But I’d never heard of him, Godfather’s Pizza, the National Restaurant Association or basically anything else he’s ever been associated with. ---
**Author:** ![Simplicio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c37758/32.png) [@Simplicio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Simplicio)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2011, 4:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/131 "2011-03-28T16:30:43Z")
> [@Captain\_Lance\_Murdoch](#): > > Pawlenty is picking up steam. > > The Colbert Report dedicated an entire segment to making fun of him and the NY Times did a high profile piece on how he is all things to all people. True, these things could be seen as negatives, but I think it’s seen as a badge of honor to be nicked in the liberul media. Besides, it’s got to boost his name recognition. > > He also gained a lot of attention for taking on a fake Southern accent recently. This is just bizarre and has made him something of a laughingstock round these parts. He might want to can that from now on. Its kinda weird how little attention Pawlenty has been getting. He seems the obvious pick to me. He’s pretty obviously running, unlike Palin and Huckabee who seem to be just keeping a toe in the water, he isn’t insane like Bachmann, he actually has a political office unlike, well, most of the GOP field, he’s from an area that will likely be a battleground in the general election, he isn’t hated by most of the country like Newt and Palin. He’s bascially Romney, but without the baggage of having invented Obama-care or thinking Jesus came to America. But he always seems to comeup as an afterthought when people are considering GOP primary candidates. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2011, 4:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/132 "2011-03-28T16:35:33Z")
> [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](#): > > Apparently he won the [Redstate.com](http://Redstate.com) reader poll. But I’d never heard of him, Godfather’s Pizza, the National Restaurant Association or basically anything else he’s ever been associated with. Thread had moved on a bit by the time I posted. This was in reference to Cain. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2011, 4:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/133 "2011-03-28T16:57:37Z")
> [@](#): > > [Pawlenty] isn’t hated by most of the country like Newt and Palin. That’s entirely due to his low name recognition: He _is_ hated by most folks who have heard of him. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2011, 5:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/134 "2011-03-28T17:03:19Z")
> [@Simplicio](#): > > But [Pawlenty] always seems to comeup as an afterthought when people are considering GOP primary candidates. He’s currently running [second to Romney in the Intrade markets](http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/?searchQuery=Republican+Presidential+Nominee+in+2012). ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Lance\_Murdoch](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/47e85d/32.png) [@Captain\_Lance\_Murdoch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Lance_Murdoch)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2011, 5:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/135 "2011-03-29T17:07:31Z")
With Palin apparently out, Bachmann will be the new darling of the Tea Soirée. She could do well in Iowa. The Republican party primaries last year showed that the tea bagger element must be taken seriously at that level and less so at the general election level. That said, Bachmann is still Palin-lite. She is just as nuts as Palin, if not more so, but she doesn’t have the same rabid following of fans behind her. Not yet anyway. Ultimately, I think the party will try to pick someone they think can actually oust the foreign-born, socialist in the White House and to me that comes down to T-Paw and Daniels (if he decides to run.) ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Lance\_Murdoch](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/47e85d/32.png) [@Captain\_Lance\_Murdoch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Lance_Murdoch)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2011, 8:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/136 "2011-03-29T20:27:13Z")
Ooh! Roy “10 Commandments” Moore is throwing his hat into the ring! This is just the most pathetic roster of candidates (well, sort of - maybe - someday candidates) ever. ---
**Author:** ![a35362](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/3da27b/32.png) [@a35362](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/a35362)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2011, 9:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/137 "2011-03-29T21:14:06Z")
Do you think this is how it will be? Most of the serious candidates don’t want to burn money on a tough campaign cycle, so they’ll sit it out until 2016, leaving mostly the unknowns to go at it in 2012. Sorta like the Dems in 1992: everybody knew Cuomo was gonna get in eventually, and nobody wanted to go up against him. Even Clinton was (supposedly) just in it to raise some money and get some name recognition before he dropped out. ---
**Author:** ![AbloyProtec](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/9f8e36/32.png) [@AbloyProtec](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AbloyProtec)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2011, 9:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/138 "2011-03-29T21:40:28Z")
There were no posts for Cain, now there are 8 and counting. Played like a fiddle. Thanks for the press. -Regards. ---
**Author:** ![Tom\_Scud](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/f08c70/32.png) [@Tom\_Scud](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tom_Scud)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2011, 9:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/139 "2011-03-29T21:59:28Z")
OMG how can Cain lose now that he’s got ten whole posts on a rarely-updated thread in the SDMB! ---
**Author:** ![AbloyProtec](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/9f8e36/32.png) [@AbloyProtec](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AbloyProtec)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2011, 10:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160/140 "2011-03-29T22:14:02Z")
> [@Tom\_Scud](#): > > OMG how can Cain lose now that he’s got ten whole posts on a rarely-updated thread in the SDMB! Google still follows it, rarely-updated or not. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160.md?page=6) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2012-gop-presidential-nomination/571160.md?page=8)