# Handicapping the 2014 midterms **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [January 5, 2014, 7:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2014-midterms/677960 "2014-01-05T19:29:33Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [April 28, 2014, 2:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2014-midterms/677960/61 "2014-04-28T14:17:33Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Yay is right. You think the economy has improved during that time to be a coincidence? We do best under gridlock. Yeah, I gotta throw a flag on that one, adaher. That’s certainly a common perception but do you have any evidence to back that up? ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [April 28, 2014, 3:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2014-midterms/677960/62 "2014-04-28T15:02:16Z")
> [@Jonathan\_Chance](#): > > Yeah, I gotta throw a flag on that one, adaher. That’s certainly a common perception but do you have any evidence to back that up? The economy improved a **lot** under FDR and Truman; and [the Dems controlled both houses throughout that period except for the 80th Congress, 1947-49.](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Party_divisions_of_United_States_Congresses) The economy was just humming along under JFK and LBJ, and the Dems controlled both houses that whole period. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [April 28, 2014, 4:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2014-midterms/677960/63 "2014-04-28T16:43:24Z")
Heck, have their been _any_ periods of single-party Dem control where the economy wasn’t so good? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [April 28, 2014, 5:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2014-midterms/677960/64 "2014-04-28T17:02:31Z")
The Clinton administration was a great time for the economy: especially when government was divided. ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [April 28, 2014, 7:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2014-midterms/677960/65 "2014-04-28T19:37:15Z")
That’s sort of begging the question, adaher. You’re providing an answer that doesn’t actually, well, answer. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [April 28, 2014, 7:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2014-midterms/677960/66 "2014-04-28T19:53:35Z")
Well, what evidence would you like? Average unemployment rate under full Democratic control? GDP growth? Stock market growth? The Democrats pass anti-business regulations and hike taxes, and then expect hiring to ensue. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [April 28, 2014, 8:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2014-midterms/677960/67 "2014-04-28T20:14:12Z")
Your statement, pal. \*You \*tell \*us \*what you base it on, 'kay? :dubious: The rest of us aren’t hear to make your arguments for you. You gotta support them your own damn self, or think harder before even presenting them. At least a minimal amount of research, a few minutes really, would help prevent some of the laughter you hear. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [April 28, 2014, 11:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2014-midterms/677960/68 "2014-04-28T23:33:19Z")
I’m basing it on something rather simple: Democrats had complete control in my lifetime from 1976-1980(sucked), 1993-1994(sucked less, but not awesome by any means), and 2009-2010(sucked horribly). The good times were 1995-2000, and before that 1983-1990. Some of the longest economic expansions we’ve ever seen. And both under divided government. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [April 28, 2014, 11:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2014-midterms/677960/69 "2014-04-28T23:47:24Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > Heck, have their been _any_ periods of single-party Dem control where the economy wasn’t so good? The Carter Admin. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2014, 12:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2014-midterms/677960/70 "2014-04-29T00:04:57Z")
Yet, Carter presided over [a 3.06% increase in jobs](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jobs_created_during_U.S._presidential_terms#Job_creation_by_term) in his single term, a better rate than any Republican from Harding to the present, Saint Ronald included. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2014, 12:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2014-midterms/677960/71 "2014-04-29T00:06:38Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > I’m basing it on something rather simple: Democrats had complete control in my lifetime from 1976-1980(sucked), 1993-1994(sucked less, but not awesome by any means), and 2009-2010(sucked horribly). You have some basis for defining “sucking”, then. How about sharing that with us? :rolleyes: To remind you: Your statement, your job to back it up. Not anybody else’s. The presumption of good faith is not valid for everyone. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2014, 12:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2014-midterms/677960/72 "2014-04-29T00:32:34Z")
The Carter years, for starters, saw him take office with unemployment at 7.5% and leave office with unemployment at… 7.5%: [http://data.bls.gov/pdq/SurveyOutputServlet](http://data.bls.gov/pdq/SurveyOutputServlet) We already know about the Obama years. I assume no one has forgotten. As for Clinton, 1993-94, we were coming out of the recession nicely, but the best was yet to come once Republicans stopped Clinton from making the biggest mistake of his career(Clintoncare), and then took Congress off the Democrats’ hands. If Democrats keep Congress throughout Clinton’s two terms, I believe the story ends very differently for Clinton. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2014, 1:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2014-midterms/677960/73 "2014-04-29T01:59:09Z")
You were asked for your definition of “sucking”, since those are the facts you base your “conclusion” on that we do best when we have “gridlock”. You have provided none. What is the only reasonable inference from that absence, hmm? :dubious: I would say you can do better, but there’s no evidence of _that_, either. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2014, 2:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2014-midterms/677960/74 "2014-04-29T02:02:27Z")
Well, considering you referred to the budget surplus and irrational exuberance period as one of Democratic control… ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2014, 2:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2014-midterms/677960/75 "2014-04-29T02:11:25Z")
So that’s a No, then. You could have saved some keystrokes and just said so. Pathetic. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2014, 2:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2014-midterms/677960/76 "2014-04-29T02:17:43Z")
I’m not here to meet your standards. You aren’t even up to mine, and your excuse that you didn’t make the argument doesn’t hold water, since you actually did make an argument, and a silly one at that. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2014, 2:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2014-midterms/677960/77 "2014-04-29T14:24:46Z")
We’re not asking you to meet our standards. Meeting your own personal standards is just fine. We just want to know what those standards are. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2014, 2:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2014-midterms/677960/78 "2014-04-29T14:44:49Z")
> [@Lamar\_Mundane](#): > > I know a lot of people who claim to be independents, I played golf with a couple of them today, and they are really starting to get tired of the increasingly nasty rhetoric coming from the right, especially the racism. We talked a lot about LA Clippers owner Donald Sterling today. I don’t even know what his politics are, but an angry, old, white billionaire is going to get lumped in with the other angry, old, white, rich men that we’re going to see a lot of come election time. > [@adaher](#): > > yep, like Tom Steyer. > [@Lamar\_Mundane](#): > > Who? > [@adaher](#): > > The liberal Koch Hey, guess what? [We might get to see Steyer and the Kochs go head-to-head!](http://www.salon.com/2014/04/28/billionaire_vs_billionaires_tom_steyer_challenges_the_koch_brothers_to_a_climate_debate/) In a climate-change debate! Steyer has thrown down, let’s see what the Kochs do! ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2014, 2:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2014-midterms/677960/79 "2014-04-29T14:56:23Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > I’m not here to meet your standards. Are you here to try to convince anyone of the correctness of your views, or are you using this board as your personal echo chamber? If you’re actually trying to convince anyone else, there are some basics of honest argument that have to be used, the most fundamental of which is to start with the facts and let them lead you to a conclusion. The approach of starting with a conclusion, such as your trademark “Democrats suck” for instance, and then looking for something to cherry-pick to try to support that position, even inventing it when sufficiently desperate, gives you, well, the results you’ve been having pretty much exclusively here. > [@](#): > > You aren’t even up to mine That’s a damn good thing, too. Thanks. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2014, 8:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2014-midterms/677960/80 "2014-04-30T20:09:06Z")
Some interesting data from the new NBC/WSJ poll ([pdf](http://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/04/30/1295842/-NBC-WSJ-survey-Obama-approval-up-but-enthusiasm-gap-still-favors-GOP?detail=hide), but summarized [here](http://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/04/30/1295842/-NBC-WSJ-survey-Obama-approval-up-but-enthusiasm-gap-still-favors-GOP?detail=hide)). Net approval ratings: > [@](#): > > Hillary Clinton +16 > Obama +3 > Democrats -1 > Rand Paul -3 > Jeb Bush -11 > Koch Brothers -11 > Mitch McConnell -15 > Republicans -19 > Tea Party -19 The Democrats have only a 13% “very positive”, sure - but that’s over twice the Republicans’ 6%. Yes, a single digit; apparently it’s possible. Adding the “somewhats” gets the Dems to 36% but the Reps only to 25%. A pretty sad showing all around, but it provides some guidance about which way to bet. The Dems have traditionally had the “enthusiasm gap” and turnout problem in midterms, but the Reps look to have a worse one. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2014-midterms/677960.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2014-midterms/677960.md?page=5)