# Handicapping the 2014 midterms

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2014-midterms/677960>\
**Category:** Politics & Elections\
**Created:** [January 5, 2014, 7:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2014-midterms/677960 "2014-01-05T19:29:33Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 20\
**Page:** 5

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**Author:** ![racepug](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/f1d935/32.png) [@racepug](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/racepug)\
**Post date:** [April 30, 2014, 8:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2014-midterms/677960/81 "2014-04-30T20:18:59Z")

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I just saw that Rs voted down a minimum (living) wage. If there were any justice in the world (or at least in the U.S.) those @#@#@#$ wouldn’t garner even ONE vote come November (certainly they wouldn’t if there were more people like ME around). But I’ve been around long enough to know that justice often eludes us, so…

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**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\
**Post date:** [April 30, 2014, 8:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2014-midterms/677960/82 "2014-04-30T20:36:23Z")

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Worse, it was another filibuster. Look for the bubblehead commentators on the talk shows to simply say “It takes 60 votes to pass a bill in the Senate” and leave it at that.

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**Author:** ![Bill\_Door](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/50afbb/32.png) [@Bill\_Door](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bill_Door)\
**Post date:** [May 1, 2014, 1:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2014-midterms/677960/83 "2014-05-01T13:20:51Z")

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> [@racepug](#):
>
> I just saw that Rs voted down a minimum (living) wage. If there were any justice in the world (or at least in the U.S.) those @#@#@#$ wouldn’t garner even ONE vote come November (certainly they wouldn’t if there were more people like ME around). But I’ve been around long enough to know that justice often eludes us, so…

But the fact is that young people 18 to 25 years old, who are most likely to be affected by the minimum wage increase, are the least likely to vote, and the ones who are likely to vote are more conservative than the stay at home youth. [Check it out.](http://www.iop.harvard.edu/sites/default/files_new/Harvard_ExecSummarySpring2014.pdf) It doesn’t look good.

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**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\
**Post date:** [May 1, 2014, 2:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2014-midterms/677960/84 "2014-05-01T14:27:08Z")

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That’s been the secret of Republican electoral success. Somehow, they get people to vote against their own economic self-interest. Many of the working poor happily vote for pols who want to bust unions, stop the minimum wage increases, and deny them healthcare becase they hate abortion or because they’re afraid of losing their guns. And these people show up to vote 100% of the time.

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**Author:** ![DigitalC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ebca7d/32.png) [@DigitalC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DigitalC)\
**Post date:** [May 1, 2014, 5:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2014-midterms/677960/85 "2014-05-01T17:01:58Z")

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If elections were decided by approval ratings we would never have to worry about republicans again. As long as their voters are more reliable than ours the fact that democrats are always more popular means jack shit.

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**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\
**Post date:** [May 1, 2014, 11:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2014-midterms/677960/86 "2014-05-01T23:24:08Z")

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> [@DigitalC](#):
>
> If elections were decided by approval ratings we would never have to worry about republicans again. As long as their voters are more reliable than ours the fact that democrats are always more popular means jack shit.

Well, maybe this year, the Pubs’ efforts to block their votes will have the contrary effect of encouraging high turnout, as people appreciate things more when someone tries to take them away, and get mad about it, too.

Maybe.

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**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\
**Post date:** [May 2, 2014, 11:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2014-midterms/677960/87 "2014-05-02T11:16:59Z")

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That will be the lesson of 2014. Many people had something taken away from them, and they’ll be very motivated voters.

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**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\
**Post date:** [May 2, 2014, 11:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2014-midterms/677960/88 "2014-05-02T11:31:14Z")

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> [@adaher](#):
>
> That will be the lesson of 2014. Many people had something taken away from them, and they’ll be very motivated voters.

A shit ton more now have health care that didn’t before. They will far outnumber the whiny wretches who no longer have their crappy insurance plans.

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**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\
**Post date:** [May 2, 2014, 11:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2014-midterms/677960/89 "2014-05-02T11:36:13Z")

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Those people aren’t going to be voting.

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**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\
**Post date:** [May 2, 2014, 11:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2014-midterms/677960/90 "2014-05-02T11:46:52Z")

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> [@adaher](#):
>
> Those people aren’t going to be voting.

Neither will any of the old white people that died since 2010.

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**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\
**Post date:** [May 2, 2014, 11:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2014-midterms/677960/91 "2014-05-02T11:54:53Z")

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That’s okay. I think you’ll find the exit polls very disturbing to your assumptions.

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**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\
**Post date:** [May 2, 2014, 11:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2014-midterms/677960/92 "2014-05-02T11:56:25Z")

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> [@adaher](#):
>
> That’s okay. I think you’ll find the exit polls very disturbing to your assumptions.

What are your plans for your post-election sabbatical this time? 😃

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**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\
**Post date:** [May 2, 2014, 12:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2014-midterms/677960/93 "2014-05-02T12:02:41Z")

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> [@adaher](#):
>
> Those people aren’t going to be voting.

Really, why should Republicans ever make any effort to come up with any economic plans at all? Their people always vote.

If you’re one of the millions who now has health care coverage who couldn’t get it before, do you think you’re going to say: “Hmmmm… I think I’ll vote Republican. They promise to repeal the program that gave me coverage and haven’t come up with an alternative. Yep, sounds good to me!”

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**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\
**Post date:** [May 2, 2014, 12:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2014-midterms/677960/94 "2014-05-02T12:07:01Z")

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It just happens that the people we appeal to vote regularly. The people you appeal to are unmotivated and uninformed. Perhaps you should work on appealing to those who are motivated and informed.

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**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\
**Post date:** [May 2, 2014, 12:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2014-midterms/677960/95 "2014-05-02T12:12:26Z")

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I think it’s more accurate to say your side appeals to the misinformed. “Death panels! Obama watched Benghazi deaths on Drone TV! Kenyan Socialist Muslim! Job Creators! Death Tax! Double Taxation! Vote Fraud!”

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**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\
**Post date:** [May 2, 2014, 12:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2014-midterms/677960/96 "2014-05-02T12:22:41Z")

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Yet somehow my side can find their polling place. Yours can’t.

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**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\
**Post date:** [May 2, 2014, 12:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2014-midterms/677960/97 "2014-05-02T12:25:24Z")

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Your side, the one that gave us President Romney?

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**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\
**Post date:** [May 2, 2014, 12:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2014-midterms/677960/98 "2014-05-02T12:59:29Z")

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[Job Market Heats Up in April; Unemployment Rate Drops to 6.3%](http://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/job-market-heats-april-unemployment-rate-drops-6-3-n95431)

> [@](#):
>
> The labor market warmed up along with the weather in April when employers added a much higher-than-expected 288,000 workers to their payrolls, government data showed Friday.
> 
> The Labor Department also reported that the unemployment rate dropped to 6.3 percent, a 5-1/2 year low, from 6.7 percent in March.
> 
> A consensus of economists had been expecting an increase of 201,000 non-farm payrolls, with the jobless rate inching lower to 6.6 percent. The job gains in April were the highest since January 2012.

Let’s see how Fox spins this news as bad for the Democrats.

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**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\
**Post date:** [May 2, 2014, 1:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2014-midterms/677960/99 "2014-05-02T13:01:13Z")

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Fox will give the credit to the Republican House.

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**Author:** ![yellowjacketcoder](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/y/4bbf92/32.png) [@yellowjacketcoder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/yellowjacketcoder)\
**Post date:** [May 2, 2014, 1:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2014-midterms/677960/100 "2014-05-02T13:32:06Z")

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> [@Fear\_Itself](#):
>
> [Job Market Heats Up in April; Unemployment Rate Drops to 6.3%](http://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/job-market-heats-april-unemployment-rate-drops-6-3-n95431)Let’s see how Fox spins this news as bad for the Democrats.

Not that I like Fox, and I definitely would like the Pubs to lose badly this fall, but the easy retort is that the labor force participation rate dropped 0.4% due to 800,000 people who stopped looking for jobs. 800,000 stopped looking vs. 250,00 that got jobs is bad employment math. [cite](http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-labor-force-participation-rate-falls-sharply-in-april-2014-05-02)

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